A 'super' Best Track & Halsey's Typhoon of December 1944

[Mike Fiorino]

hi IBTrACSters,

I am developing what I refer to as a 'super' best track by incorporating or superimposing dynamical variables (e.g., vertical wind shear) and thermodynamical variables (precipitation), into the traditional best track parameters of position, intensity, and structure.

See: 

https://surperbt.blogspot.com/2023/12/intro-to-superbt.html

for a beta version

I utilize a unique dataset of twice-daily 10-day forecasts from the ERA5 reanalysis spanning 1940-2024. I have applied Tim Marchok's tracker to all storms from 1945-2024 and then calculate the 'diagnostics' file based on the ERA5 forecasts.

I have long been fascinated by Halsey's catastrophic encounter with two typhoons during World War II. Specifically, I am interested in the track of Typhoon Cobra in December 1944 in the Philippine Sea and the quality of the ERA5 model forecasts.

The storm is illustrated on the inside cover of the 1967 book "Halsey's Typhoons" by Adamson and Kosco. Commander Kosco, who served as the fleet meteorologist aboard Admiral Halsey's flagship during the event, is believed to have recorded the first radar fix of a tropical cyclone.

 

Thanks in advance for any help in located the best track.

Best Regards,

Mike Fiorino

CDR USN(ret)