Unable to get track of Cyclone Mandous

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ashwin .D

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Jan 5, 2023, 9:30:19 PM1/5/23
to IBTrACS Q&A
Hello,
            I am using the python package - https://github.com/tropycal/tropycal and I am wanting the track of the recent Cyclone Mandous and I am using the ibtracs dataset and the software reports that the cyclone is not found. All cyclones prior to that cyclone for the year 2022 and the basin North Indian Ocean are found but this one is not found.

Any reasons why that could be ? I will be happy to provide my test script that reproduces the error. 

Best regards,
Ashwin.
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ashwin .D

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Jan 5, 2023, 9:37:08 PM1/5/23
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1from tropycal import tracks

import datetime as dt
import sys

import matplotlib.pyplot as plt

hurdat_atl = tracks.TrackDataset(basin='north_indian',source='ibtracs',ibtracs_mode="jtwc")





storm = hurdat_atl.get_storm(('Mandous',2022)

Ken Knapp - NOAA Federal

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Jan 6, 2023, 8:29:00 AM1/6/23
to ashwin .D, IBTrACS Q&A
Hi Ashwin
The first step in trying to determine an issue with IBTrACS is to look at the browse pages. These contain every system and every data value, but in a web browsable form. Here's the page:
https://ncics.org/ibtracs/

When I click "by year" and select 2022, I see that there is a storm in December, but it appears to have a slightly different name.
https://ncics.org/ibtracs/index.php?name=v04r00-2022342N09084

And the problem is this: 
While we were QCing storm names several years ago, we added a check to change DOUS to DOUG because of a typo in one source (an agency had a typo for a storm in 1994). However, this correction also inadvertently changed MANDOUS to MANDOUG. So we'll have to change our QC to be more careful so it doesn't rename MANDOUS.

Thanks for pointing this out.
-Ken

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ashwin .D

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Jan 6, 2023, 8:39:44 AM1/6/23
to Ken Knapp - NOAA Federal, IBTrACS Q&A
Hello Ken,
                     Many thanks and that fixes the problem. There is only a small concern. My total ACE energy for 2022 turns out to be 10.7 but the ACE reported for North Indian Ocean is a bit higher at 12.41. I guess that maybe due to different algorithms for calculating the ACE.
Thanks for your help,
Regards,
Ashwin. 
ace_climo.png

Ken Knapp - NOAA Federal

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Jan 6, 2023, 8:44:40 AM1/6/23
to ashwin .D, IBTrACS Q&A
Hi
That is a really nice plot! 

Not sure, but the difference in ACE could be the difference in lifetime of the storm. I notice that this site:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cyclones_Mandous_and_ARB_03
has a significantly longer track than IBTrACS. I am not sure what the source of their track is (or what the climatlas site uses). So if they have a longer storm track, then their ACE would be larger.

Thanks-
-Ken

ashwin .D

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Jan 6, 2023, 8:56:14 AM1/6/23
to Ken Knapp - NOAA Federal, IBTrACS Q&A
This is the IBTrACS track I got from troPYcal. So its very different from the wikipedia link. Hence the difference in ACE is quite significant. 
mandoug.png

Carl Schreck - NOAA Affiliate

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Jan 6, 2023, 9:37:03 AM1/6/23
to ashwin .D, Ken Knapp - NOAA Federal, IBTrACS Q&A
Interesting... Looks like the Wikipedia site gets their data from NRL:
And it's significantly longer than either IBTrACS, RAMMB, or RAL:

The overlapping data is similar but not identical. For example, at 00z on Dec-8, the NRL site has a longitude of 84.1, but the others are all 83.9. We'll follow up offline with NRL and see if we can figure out the provenance and see which is best to rely on.

Thanks for bringing this up!
Carl

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/ibtracs-qa/CAH0LXy4xbUm3P%3DSfAVLQrBiBKQwzwYUHf2snqPfqxdpUSL539Q%40mail.gmail.com.


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Jason Rees

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Jan 6, 2023, 10:37:44 AM1/6/23
to ashwin .D, Ken Knapp - NOAA Federal, IBTrACS Q&A, Steve Young
Hi all,

I wish to step into this conversation about Mandous on behalf of Wikipedia here. As Carl has correctly noted, the initial data for the track maps for the Indian Ocean tends to come from the NRL track files. I believe that this is the JTWC's own running best track file, which is published on its own website while a system is active under JMV 3.0. I also understand that from time to time we add points from the RSMC/TCWCs in from time to time.

I don't know much about Mandous as I didn't track it in real time. But I believe there was a significant under estimation of its intensity in real time by both the IMD and the JTWC. This would likely to be the cause of any under estimation of the published ACE data for the NIO. I also believe that the system moved out into the Arabian Sea and became ARB 3. However, I also have to note that we are dealing with the IMD who start adding the ACE together as soon as a system forms into a depression rather than a Cyclonic Storm (Cat 1/TS/MTS).

I would also like to bring Steve Young in on this email chain, as he publishes global tropical cyclone tracking data every month, having taken over the publication of such data from Gary Padgett in 2010. I am sure that he will be able to shed some more light on Mandous.

Regards,

Jason Rees
Wikipedia Editor.


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From: ibtra...@googlegroups.com <ibtra...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of ashwin .D <wina...@gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, 6 January 2023, 13:56
To: Ken Knapp - NOAA Federal <ken....@noaa.gov>
Cc: IBTrACS Q&A <ibtra...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [ibtracs-qa] Re: Unable to get track of Cyclone Mandous

Carl Schreck - NOAA Affiliate

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Jan 9, 2023, 10:31:02 AM1/9/23
to Jason Rees, ashwin .D, Ken Knapp - NOAA Federal, IBTrACS Q&A, Steve Young
Thanks Jason. That's helpful. And I appreciate the work that your team with Wikipedia does. I often use those well-maintained articles for sanity checks on my monthly tropical cyclone reports. I believe myself and others also use it (along with AON) as a gateway for tracking down impacts of the TCs around the globe for the Tropics Chapter of the BAMS State of the Climate. Not sure if there's anything we could or should do to make those relationships more formal, but I know I really appreciate them!!

Carl

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/ibtracs-qa/DB9P192MB14437769E9D8FEE9DACD2295C0FB9%40DB9P192MB1443.EURP192.PROD.OUTLOOK.COM.

Steven Young

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Jan 9, 2023, 1:00:36 PM1/9/23
to Carl Schreck - NOAA Affiliate, Jason Rees, ashwin .D, Ken Knapp - NOAA Federal, IBTrACS Q&A

Just to throw my 2 cents in, the following track information is sourced from near-real time JTWC information,  There are times where early JTWC information is not retained for the final tracks, but since it was initially available as part of the INVEST stage, I retain it.  Note that the last position for 06B was timestamped at 11 December 2022 00:00z while 07A was timestamped at 12 December 2022 12:00z with a longitude difference of about 2 degrees.

 

The monthly information for TC is available at Global Tropical Cyclones Hurricanes Typhoons Summaries and Operational Track Data (australiasevereweather.com)

 

Reference 1:  https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/JTWC/bio062022.dat

Reference 2: https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/JTWC/bio072022.dat

 

 

Steven Young

 

 

=== N. INDIAN ===

System: MANDOUS                       Invest:96B        TD# 06B

ID          Designation Date   Time   Lat.     Lon.     Wind  Press.  ST   Other

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221203 0600    +5.5    +99.5     15   1010    B

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221203 1200    +5.9    +98.7     15   1010    B

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221203 1800    +5.4   +100.8     15   1006    B    RELOCATED FROM (+6.1 +98.0)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221204 0000    +5.6    +99.9     15   1006    B

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221204 0600    +5.8    +99.0     15   1006    B

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221204 1200    +6.1    +98.1     20   1006    B

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221204 1800    +6.4    +96.9     20   1007    B    RELOCATED FROM (+6.1 +98.1)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221205 0000    +6.8    +95.6     20   1006    B

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221205 0600    +7.2    +94.3     20   1005    B

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221205 1200    +7.5    +92.7     25   1004    D

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221205 1800    +7.5    +91.4     25   1004    D

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221206 0000    +7.7    +90.0     25   1003    D

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221206 0600    +8.0    +88.6     25   1003    D

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221206 1200    +8.2    +87.8     30   1000    D

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221206 1800    +8.4    +84.0     30    998    D

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221207 0000    +8.6    +86.4     30    998    D    IMD=30KT 1002MB (+8.6 +86.4)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221207 0600    +8.7    +85.8     30   1003    D    IMD=30KT 1002MB (+8.7 +85.5)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221207 1200    +8.9    +85.2     30   1003    D    IMD=30KT 1000MB (+8.9 +85.0)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221207 1800    +9.2    +84.6     40    995    T    IMD=35KT (+9.2 +84.6)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221208 0000    +9.4    +84.1     40    993    T    IMD=40KT 996MB (+9.6 +84.1)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221208 0600    +9.7    +83.5     45    992    T    IMD=45KT 994MB (+9.7 +83.5)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221208 1200   +10.2    +82.9     50    990    T    IMD=50KT 990MB (+10.1 +82.9)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221208 1800   +10.5    +82.2     55    991    T    IMD=50KT 992MB (+10.6 +82.3)  

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221209 0000   +10.9    +81.1     55    991    T    IMD=50KT 992MB (+11.0 +81.7)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221209 0600   +11.3    +81.5     50    993    T    IMD=45KT 994MB (+11.4 +81.3)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221209 1200   +11.9    +81.2     45    994    T    IMD=40KT 996MB (+12.0 +80.8)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221209 1800   +12.7    +80.7     35    996    T    IMD=35KT 998MB (+12.5 +80.3)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221210 0000   +12.9    +80.1     30    998    D    IMD=30KT 1000MB (+1.0 +79.7)

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221210 0600   +13.1    +79.4     25   1004    D

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221210 1200   +13.1    +78.6     20   1005    B

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221210 1800   +13.0    +77.9     15   1007    B

96B 06B        MANDOUS  221211 0000   +12.9    +77.3     15   1008    B

 

 

 

System: INVEST                        Invest:97A        TD# 07A

ID          Designation Date   Time   Lat.     Lon.     Wind  Press.  ST   Other

97A 07A         INVEST  221212 1200   +12.3    +75.1     15   1010    B

97A 07A         INVEST  221212 1800   +12.3    +75.0     15   1010    B

97A 07A         INVEST  221213 0000   +12.5    +73.3     15   1010    B

97A 07A         INVEST  221213 0600   +12.5    +72.5     20   1007    B

97A 07A         INVEST  221213 1200   +12.6    +71.8     20   1007    B

97A 07A         INVEST  221213 1800   +12.9    +71.3     35   1003    T

97A 07A         INVEST  221214 0000   +13.2    +70.5     50    994    T

97A 07A         INVEST  221214 0600   +13.4    +69.9     50    999    T

97A 07A         INVEST  221214 1200   +13.5    +69.2     45    999    T    IMD=25KT 1002MB (+13.7 +69.2)

97A 07A         INVEST  221214 1800   +13.5    +68.5     45   1001    T

97A 07A         INVEST  221215 0000   +13.6    +67.9     45   1000    T    IMD=30KT 1000MB (+13.9 +68.2)

97A 07A         INVEST  221215 0600   +13.8    +67.2     45   1001    T    IMD=30KT 1000MB (+13.9 +67.5)

97A 07A         INVEST  221215 1200   +14.0    +66.5     40    999    T    IMD=30KT 1000MB (+14.1 +66.8)

97A 07A         INVEST  221215 1800   +13.8    +65.7     35   1003    T

97A 07A         INVEST  221216 0000   +13.7    +65.1     35   1003    T    IMD=30KT 1000MB (+14.1 +65.1)

97A 07A         INVEST  221216 0600   +13.6    +64.5     35   1004    T    IMD=30KT 1000MB (+13.8 +64.4)

97A 07A         INVEST  221216 1200   +14.2    +63.7     30   1002    D

97A 07A         INVEST  221216 1800   +14.2    +62.9     30   1000    D

97A 07A         INVEST  221217 0000   +14.0    +62.2     30   1004    D

97A 07A         INVEST  221217 0600   +13.9    +61.4     30   1000    D

97A 07A         INVEST  221217 1200   +13.7    +60.9     30   1005    D

97A 07A         INVEST  221217 1800   +13.5    +59.8     25   1008    D

97A 07A         INVEST  221218 0000   +13.4    +58.7     25   1004    D

97A 07A         INVEST  221218 0600   +13.4    +57.3     25   1004    D

97A 07A         INVEST  221218 1200   +13.1    +56.4     20   1007    B

97A 07A         INVEST  221218 1800   +12.8    +55.7     20   1007    B

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