Fwd: Three things for 2015 - From our Chief Economist

1 view
Skip to first unread message

SM

unread,
Jan 1, 2015, 1:53:16 PM1/1/15
to iaeem...@googlegroups.com
Para el que le interese..abz

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: Simon Baptist <simonj...@news.eiu.com>
Date: January 1, 2015 at 1:30:17 PM GMT-3
To: sebma...@gmail.com
Subject: Three things for 2015 - From our Chief Economist
Reply-To: simonj...@news.eiu.com

Forward to a Colleague                

 
Thursday, 01 January, 2014
Three things for 2015
Clichéd as it is, I can't pass up the opportunity to use the first newsletter of 2015 to give a few predictions for the year ahead. I have three things I've got my eyes on as key trends for 2015: supply chains evolving, social policy in emerging markets, and new geopolitical powers.

First, supply chains in 2015 will continue to be affected by rising wages in China, as well as a re-evaluation of risk that will lead to shorter supply chains and an advantage for less risky countries. Competition for the next wave of manufacturing and services outsourcing, along with a diversification of demand sources, will change the geography of trade.

Second, the rising middle class and accelerating demographic change will push social policy in emerging markets up the agenda. More migration will happen in places that are not ready for it, and the impact of demographics on labour markets will bite in more places at lower income levels that in the past. Health, education and pension spending will rise rapidly in emerging markets—especially in Asia—while rising incomes will start to change attitudes towards race, gender, the environment and sexuality in more countries.

Finally, we will see more tensions and opportunities from the rise of new powers. The US has yet to accommodate these quickly enough, while the new powers have not yet shown sufficient maturity on the world stage. China's rise will cause unease, and tensions in the South China Sea will escalate, while previously weak countries like India will want to—and be expected to—play a more global role.

What are your predictions for 2015? Let me know your thoughts on Twitter @Baptist_Simon or via email on simonj...@eiu.com. 

Best regards,

Simon Baptist
Chief Economist and Asia Regional Director
World: Industries in 2015
Download the Economist Intelligence Unit’s outlook for six key industry sectors for the year ahead.
Venezuela: Turbulent times
Nicolás Maduro's first year as president was among the most volatile in Venezuela's recent history.
World: Mixed blessing
As pump prices fall, drivers may opt for larger vehicles. That could undermine investment in fuel efficiency.
EIU Top 5 Picks
   1.
Industries in 2015 sponsored by Accenture
Download the report
  
   2.
Labour costs in China
More information
  
   3.
Global Microscope 2014
More information
  
   4.
The future for oil prices
Watch the video
  
   5.
Health outcomes and cost
More information
  
Promotional content

Join the discussion
TWITTER
Why does japan keep publishing 'first guess' GDP figs? Always big revisions but can set policy tone. Last set gone from -1.6 to -1.9
Follow Simon Baptist
FACEBOOK
Whether it is having a public or private cloud, updating technology devices in the office for the millennial workforce or integrating IT more heavily with business, it comes down to not risking the reward
LINKEDIN
Is the rouble crisis a harbinger of trouble ahead, just as the devaluation of the Thai baht was the catalyst for the Asian crisis of 1997?
 
Please consider the environment before printing this email.

Reply all
Reply to author
Forward
0 new messages