Why Trump’s Greenland Strategy Has the World on Edge
The president is again focused on acquiring the mineral-rich island. But lack of clarity about his goals and tactics is weighing on political and business leaders.
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Andrew here. Breaking news: Warner Bros. Discovery, as expected, rejected Paramount’s latest takeover bid, despite a more robust financing commitment by Larry Ellison, the Oracle co-founder.
The most interesting wrinkle is Warner Bros. Discovery’s aggressive criticism of Paramount, especially over how much debt is involved in that offer. (Samuel Di Piazza Jr., Warner Bros. Discovery’s chair, called it “an extraordinary amount of debt financing” that makes Paramount’s proposal far shakier than the deal his company struck with Netflix.)
To the extent that Warner Bros. Discovery’s board wants to force Paramount to make a higher bid, that language could make it harder to accept one in the future.
Gaming out Greenland
We’re just a week into 2026, and business and political leaders the world over are contending with yet more geopolitical crises.
It’s unclear whether President Trump is serious about seizing Greenland by force, though the prospect feels more plausible in light of the capture of Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela. But if Trump is unwilling to consider the proposal outlined by experts in Tuesday’s DealBook, what might a deal look like — and what might the consequences of all of this saber rattling be?
The latest: Secretary of State Marco Rubio told lawmakers that Trump planned to buy Greenland instead of invading it, The Times reports. But the Trump administration suggested that the president hadn’t ruled out military action, and Trump has asked for an updated plan for acquiring the semiautonomous territory of Denmark that he has long coveted. (Worth noting: Trump already seemingly contradicted Rubio on whether the U.S. would be “in charge” of Venezuela.)
Lawmakers in both parties have expressed concern about a U.S. invasion — “I don’t think that’s appropriate,” Speaker Mike Johnson said last night — and some are planning legislation that would require Trump to first seek congressional authorization.
A possible playbook: Politico notes that the Trump administration could offer Greenlanders the chance to sign a Compact of Free Association, in which Washington would provide essential services, protection and free trade in exchange for hosting expanded U.S. military operations. Some pro-independence figures in Greenland seemingly haven’t ruled out such a move, though a poll taken last year suggested that most Greenlanders don’t want to become part of the U.S.
Or, as DealBook previously reported, Trump could make a pricey bid for Greenland. That doesn’t seem so outlandish these days. Otherwise, Politico notes, a military operation to seize Nuuk, Greenland’s capital, could take perhaps a half-hour.
All of this is generating questions and political fallout. European leaders have continued to support Denmark against Trump’s threats, even as some have worried that a U.S. invasion would inevitably lead to the effective demise of NATO. That then leaves the prospect of emboldening Russia to further encroach into European territory — a move with big consequences for geopolitics, oil, global markets (see below) and more.
And other countries, like Mexico, are confronting questions about whether they, too, could face a U.S. incursion.
Let’s not forget Venezuela. Trump claimed on Tuesday that the country would start handing over oil production to the U.S., as the Venezuelan economy tips closer to collapse. Venezuela has not commented on Trump’s statement. (Some context: The 30 million to 50 million barrels figure he floated would amount to two to three days’ worth of U.S. consumption.) Still, oil companies like the trading firm Trafigura are in talks with Washington over resuming purchases of Venezuelan crude.
There’s another potential crisis brewing involving Venezuela: News outlets are reporting that the U.S. was trying to seize an oil tanker that the U.S. military has been pursuing. Russia has dispatched at least one naval vessel to escort it. That could escalate friction between Washington and Moscow that had already been growing over Trump’s actions against Venezuela.
HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING
JPMorgan Chase ends its asset-management unit’s use of proxy advisers. The business, which oversees over $7 trillion in client assets, will start using artificial-intelligence software to guide its votes on corporate matters, The Wall Street Journal reports. It’s another major blow against proxy advisers, which face a federal investigation and criticism by corporate leaders — including Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan’s C.E.O.
Businesses and the Trump administration brace for a Supreme Court ruling on tariffs. One of the decisions the court is expected to issue on Friday could be about the legality of the tariffs President Trump has justified under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. The stakes are high as the government has collected $133.5 billion through the tariffs, according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection agency, though it’s unclear if the administration would be compelled to refund any of that if it loses in court.
Elon Musk’s xAI raises $20 billion. The fund-raising round values the artificial intelligence start-up, which also owns the X social network, at more than $230 billion, The Times reports, and included participation by Fidelity, the Qatar Investment Authority, Valor Equity Partners and Nvidia. The funding comes as xAI faces more criticism, and potentially regulatory action, over its Grok chatbot generating sexualized images of children and women.
And yet stocks continue to rally
Looking at your stock portfolio, you would probably never imagine that the world was in turmoil.
The S&P 500 is in record territory on Wednesday. The rally suggests that investors are unperturbed by President Trump’s brinkmanship on multiple fronts, which as Andrew noted on Tuesday could weigh on U.S. taxpayers and businesses, Bernhard Warner writes.
Has the market become immune to such crises? “I’ve got this question a couple of times already this week,” Joachim Klement, the head of strategy at Panmure Liberum, a London-based investment bank, who has written extensively about how geopolitics influences markets, told DealBook.
“Nine out of 10, geopolitical events do not matter,” Klement said. “They only matter if they influence long-term expectations for earnings, inflation or real interest rates.”
What does matter? Events that could hurt growth, drive up prices or force the Fed to raise borrowing costs. “When it comes to the Venezuela incident, none of it has any lasting impact on inflation, growth or interest rates,” Klement said. “Hence, it does not matter.”
That said, oil prices have been volatile over the past two days, as have shares of oil majors such as Chevron. Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index, has risen this week, but is still down 10 percent over the past month.
It may help that we’re in a bull market. Why take chips off the table when Wall Street is so optimistic about 2026? Bank of America’s latest global fund manager survey, published last month, showed that investors were the most bullish in stocks since July 2021.
Could anything dent that momentum? Well, yes — global peace and, more prosaically, corporate fundamentals still matter.
“As long as we are not talking about the U.S. attacking a NATO ally — i.e., the U.S. trying to invade Greenland — and until earnings season starts late next week, markets will continue to drift higher,” Klement said.
Saks’s swift downfall
The world’s largest luxury retailer is wobbling: Saks Global appears to be on the verge of filing for bankruptcy. Last month, the retail giant skipped its interest payment of more than $100 million to bondholders. Now, it is reportedly seeking a $1 billion loan to provide crucial operating funds as it negotiates a Chapter 11 bankruptcy filing.
It’s a stunning defeat for Richard Baker, the real estate tycoon who built Saks Global into its current form. His audacious bet on luxury retail has failed to pay off, Niko Gallogly reports.
Just one year ago, Saks was riding high on its $2.7 billion acquisition of Neiman Marcus. Baker marketed the deal as a once-in-a-generation chance to consolidate in the luxury space.
But the merger — which brought Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman together under the Saks Global umbrella — turned out to be anything but transformative.
The newly supersized Saks was plagued with challenges:
Overly aggressive targets: The deal’s cost-cutting and earnings assumptions have yet to materialize. In October, Saks Global reported a 13 percent year-over-year revenue decline in its most recent fiscal quarter, to $1.6 billion.
Angry vendors: Saks’s financial woes left the company unable to pay back some suppliers, leaving store racks empty as brands dumped the retailer in favor of more reliable partners.
Too much leverage: The acquisition saddled Saks with debt that it has struggled to pay off. In August, a debt restructuring brought in $600 million in new money to help shore up the company’s finances. But by December, Saks could no longer keep up with its interest payments.
What’s next? Bankruptcy would mean another restructuring, but this time “the pool of people that are willing to invest is a lot smaller,” Tim Hynes, the global head of credit research at Debtwire, told DealBook. He expects existing lenders to provide additional capital and forgo past loans in exchange for greater equity stakes.
M&A is also on the table. Bankruptcy proceedings would require Saks to consider bids deemed favorable to stakeholders. New York City’s Bergdorf — the most high-end store in the Saks Global empire — is likely to be the most valuable target, given its appeal to wealthy shoppers.
But Hynes speculates that investors may seek to transform Saks’s flagship property — Saks Fifth Avenue, in Midtown Manhattan — into something other than a department store. “The highest value for that land is certainly not as a retail store,” he said.
“We chose to live in Silicon Valley, and whatever taxes I guess they would like to apply, so be it. I’m perfectly fine with it.”
— Jensen Huang, Nvidia’s C.E.O., on a hotly contested California ballot initiative seeking to impose a one-time 5 percent wealth tax on billionaires. Bloomberg calculates that Huang would face a tax hit of more than $7 billion.
Answer our burning questions
As we start a new year, we want to hear how you’re thinking about some of the biggest issues facing business and the economy. Today’s questions:
Over the next year, will tariffs make the economy stronger, weaker or neither?
Will the U.S. government’s investments in semiconductors, batteries and critical minerals be profitable within a decade; not profitable, but strategically necessary; or not profitable and also strategically unnecessary?
Let us know what you think here. We may use your response in an upcoming newsletter.
THE SPEED READ
Deals
Chevron and the investment firm Quantum Capital Group are said to be readying a $22 billion bid to acquire the international assets of Lukoil, a Russian company under U.S. sanctions. (FT)
Discord, the popular chat platform, has reportedly filed confidentially to go public, as Wall Street expects 2026 to be a strong year for I.P.O.s. (Bloomberg, DealBook)
Politics, policy and regulation
Senate Republicans have proposed revisions to a closely watched crypto bill, including by suggesting investor safeguards, in hopes of winning over Democratic negotiators. (Politico)
Hilton removed a Hampton Inn location from its booking system and website after the hotel was accused of canceling reservations for ICE and other agents, which drew backlash from conservatives. (WSJ)
Best of the rest
How Astoria, the Queens neighborhood that was home to the fictional Archie Bunker, became a hot spot for democratic socialists. (The New Yorker)
Welcome to Love Symposium, Silicon Valley’s latest attempt to hack — and profit from — matchmaking. (NYT)
We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to deal...@nytimes.com.
Andrew Ross Sorkin is a columnist and the founder of DealBook, the flagship business and policy newsletter at The Times and an annual conference.
Bernhard Warner is a senior editor for DealBook, a newsletter from The Times, covering business trends, the economy and the markets.
Niko Gallogly is a Times reporter, covering business for the DealBook newsletter.
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