China Bets on Technology to Resist U.S. Pressure
China announced a 7 percent increase in military spending and a five-year plan to try to reduce its military and industry’s reliance on Western technology.
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From its strikes on Iran to its global tariffs, the United States has wielded military force and economic threats to impose its will. China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, is preparing for this era of perilous rivalry by pouring resources into artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other strategic technologies, while also expanding the country’s armed forces.
Details of Mr. Xi’s ambitious plan for the next five years of China’s technological ascent were released at a meeting of the national legislature in Beijing on Thursday. The approach reflects Mr. Xi’s view that competition with the United States will ultimately be decided by technological innovation that drives economic, military and cultural strength.
The plan calls for fostering new engines of economic growth in emerging industries like quantum computing, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen and fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence and 6G mobile networks. “In the midst of fierce international competition, we must win the strategic initiative,” the plan said.
As China’s relationship with the United States has deteriorated, threatening Beijing’s access to U.S. technology, leaders in Beijing see achieving self-reliance as ever more urgent. Mr. Xi himself said in October that China should “seize this window of opportunity to consolidate and expand our advantages.”
Even as Mr. Xi is preparing to host President Trump in early April to try to extend a trade truce, he is doubling down on a strategy of ensuring that China’s economy and military are not vulnerable to being cut off from advanced semiconductors and other critical technologies from the West.
“Chinese leaders have a view that Washington will continue trying to constrain China’s technological development,” said Gerard DiPippo, an associate director of the China Research Center at RAND, a research organization. “That belief underpins the urgency behind self-reliance efforts.”
The plan said China would “continuously enhance” the country’s competitive advantage in rare earths, exports of which Beijing had restricted in response to the U.S. tariffs, before the two sides agreed to pause retaliatory measures. Separately, the plan also called for strengthening China’s ability to counter sanctions and foreign interference.
The ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran and America’s attack on Venezuela in January — which led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and takeover of that country’s oil industry — may have deepened Chinese leaders’ wariness of Mr. Trump, said Daniel R. Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs.
“Donald Trump may think he is demonstrating military strength that will intimidate Beijing,” said Mr. Russel, now a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. “But his actions in Venezuela and Iran are more likely to drive Beijing’s determination to harden its capacity to resist the U.S. and to tighten its alignment with Russia.”
To fortify China against perceived threats, Mr. Xi is also committed to a continued buildup of the People’s Liberation Army forces, even after eviscerating its high command with purges that have removed top generals and left key leadership posts vacant.
The government said Thursday that it would increase its military spending by 7 percent this year relative to last year, bringing its outlay to about $277 billion — about one third of the Trump administration’s proposed military spending for the 2026 fiscal year.
But Mr. Xi has indicated that long-term victory depends less on raw spending and more on the country’s ability to dominate industries of the future. The new plan calls for technological breakthroughs, including in the development of medicines as well as in deep sea mining and fusion energy research. The term “artificial intelligence” is cited over 50 times.
In areas like A.I., robotics, quantum computing and 6G, “I think there’s a strong sense among China’s policymakers that they can take the lead over the U.S.,” said Kyle Chan, a fellow at the Brookings Institution focusing on China’s industrial policies.
The goals laid out in the plan are like “huge flashing lights that orient central bureaucrats, local officials, domestic companies and multinationals on the country’s priorities for the next five years,” said Scott Kennedy, a researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington and the author of a new study of China’s drive for technological breakthroughs.
“Policymakers will need to develop more specific policies to achieve these goals, and businesses will need to align their strategies, at least in name, toward these aims,” Mr. Kennedy wrote in emailed comments.
The plan calls for investment to also flow into enhancing China’s advanced industries, such as industrial robots and pharmaceuticals. And while Mr. Xi sets the national vision, the execution often falls to local officials across the country, creating a surge in production that is likely to spill over China’s borders, further straining relations with trading partners.
“To the extent that industrial policies are implemented with little coordination across local levels, overcapacity will continue to be a feature,” said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who studies Chinese economic strategy. “This means Chinese producers will continue to find buyers around the world. The tactics are a combination of export and shifting production capacity overseas.”
Li You contributed research from Shanghai.
Chris Buckley, the chief China correspondent for The Times, reports on China and Taiwan from Taipei, focused on politics, social change and security and military issues.
Lily Kuo is a China correspondent for The Times, based in Taipei.
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