A frustrating role reversal is undermining America
As China reaches out, Asia shows signs of leaving the United States behind.
At the end of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit last weekend, one image stood out. There was Chinese President Xi Jinping at center stage, smiling serenely and confidently, surrounded by the leaders of more than a dozen nations. Noticeably absent was President Donald Trump. After meeting Xi the previous day, he returned to Washington. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stood in his place.
That image encapsulates a frustrating role reversal. The United States under Trump has been brandishing the tariff stick against allies, then demanding more market access and direct investment as a price for relief. Meanwhile, Xi has been presenting China as a reliable economic partner committed to multilateralism, predictability and open trade.
To the extent Xi’s misleading appeal is working, it’s because of a larger shift in Asia that has been underway for some time and which most Americans fail to grasp. China is no longer merely challenging the U.S. for influence in Asia. China is, in fact, already becoming the region’s dominant power in trade and manufacturing while making strides in the cultural space.
China’s trade with Southeast Asia, at $982 billion, is nearly double the region’s trade with the U.S. China is also the largest trading partner for America’s close allies Japan and South Korea.
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In Southeast Asia, and increasingly Central Asia, China now dominates many of the region’s industries and supply chains. In Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, 90 percent of the electric vehicles sold were made in China. In middle-income countries Thailand and Malaysia, Chinese automakers are cutting into Japan’s car market share. Chinese smartphone brands Huawei, Xiaomi and Oppo now outsell American iPhones across Southeast Asia.
Hollywood remains a cultural powerhouse, producing blockbuster films, though too many of them are designed to not offend Chinese censors. But television dramas and streaming services sanctioned by the Chinese Communist Party are finding new audiences, especially in Thailand, Vietnam and the Philippines. American-owned Netflix now carries a stream of Chinese content for its Asian subscribers.
While China’s footprint grows, America’s presence in Asia feels thinner. Since Trump withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact in his first term, the U.S. has offered no region-wide trade agreement to replace it — something of vital concern for Asia’s export-dependent economies. But China has stepped into the void with its Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, which came into force in 2022 and has 15 members, including 10 of 11 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, as well as Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.
China is now viewed more positively than the U.S. in many Asian countries, including Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, and it’s seen by most Asians as the region’s dominant economic player. A Pew Research Center survey over the summer found 65 percent of Indonesians had a favorable view of China, compared to 48 percent who held a favorable view of the U.S. A 53 percent majority had confidence in Xi to do the right thing in international affairs, compared to 34 percent who said the same of Trump.
The U.S. still has extraordinary strengths. China is viewed warily because of its military buildup and assertiveness in the South China Sea, and of course it has its own hard-edged style of diplomacy. And America’s network of alliances means that Washington is still viewed as a better guarantor of the region’s security. But the U.S. is seen as increasingly unreliable under Trump’s “America First” policies that have cut foreign assistance.
Even Silicon Valley’s leadership in technology is being challenged. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang warned last week that “China is going to win the AI race,” only to walk it back a few hours later. One risk is that America develops the better technology, but China more effectively adopts it at scale.
Most Asians prefer to hedge between what they see as an erratic and waning U.S., and a stable, ascendant China. Asian countries prefer to practice what they call “bamboo diplomacy,” bending flexibly with whichever way the winds blow without breaking for either Washington or Beijing.
If America wants primacy in Asia — in trade, manufacturing and culture — it needs comprehensive trade agreements, infrastructure financing and more predictable diplomacy. The U.S. cannot simply see Asia as a market for American products or a source to be tapped for new capital investment. Otherwise, Washington will be relegated to the role of protecting the region, while Beijing reaps the ensuing economic rewards.