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Sandrine Willert
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The stability and resilience of the Earth system and human well-being are inseparably linked1,2,3, yet their interdependencies are generally under-recognized; consequently, they are often treated independently4,5. Here, we use modelling and literature assessment to quantify safe and just Earth system boundaries (ESBs) for climate, the biosphere, water and nutrient cycles, and aerosols at global and subglobal scales. We propose ESBs for maintaining the resilience and stability of the Earth system (safe ESBs) and minimizing exposure to significant harm to humans from Earth system change (a necessary but not sufficient condition for justice)4. The stricter of the safe or just boundaries sets the integrated safe and just ESB. Our findings show that justice considerations constrain the integrated ESBs more than safety considerations for climate and atmospheric aerosol loading. Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just ESBs and at least two regional safe and just ESBs in over half of global land area are already exceeded. We propose that our assessment provides a quantitative foundation for safeguarding the global commons for all people now and into the future.
Interspecies justice aims to protect humans, other species and ecosystems, rejecting human exceptionalism. In many domains, interspecies justice could be achieved by maintaining Earth system stability within safe ESBs.
Intergenerational justice examines relationships and obligations between generations, such as the legacy of greenhouse gas emissions or ecosystem destruction for youth and future people. Achieving intergenerational justice requires recognizing the potential long-term consequences of short-term actions and associated trade-offs and synergies across time. We define two types of intergenerational justice: (between past and present; I2a) whether actions of past generations have minimized significant harm to current generations and (between present and future; I2b) the responsibility of current generations to minimize significant harm to future generations.
Intragenerational justice includes relationships between present individuals, between states (international), among people of different states (global) and between community members or citizens (communitarian or nationalist). Intersectional justice considers multiple and overlapping social identities and categories (for example, gender, race, age, class and health) that underpin inequality, vulnerability and the capacity to respond. Achieving intragenerational justice means minimizing significant harm caused by one country to another, one community to another and one individual to another.
We identify safe ESBs for warming (Fig. 1 and Table 1) based on minimizing likelihoods of triggering climate tipping elements; maintaining biosphere and cryosphere functions; and accounting for Holocene (
The safe boundary for functional integrity reduces future exposure to significant harm (intergenerational justice). Loss of functional integrity in agricultural ecosystems and cities below the safe boundary would reduce food productivity, ecosystem capacity to mitigate natural hazards, pollution and nutrient losses and increase reliance on harmful pesticides and biocides and capacity to choose alternate land uses (intragenerational justice). The dependence on these services is often higher in regions with more vulnerable communities. Specific interventions that secure functional integrity are highly local and are best implemented under local authority, knowledge and leadership50, with policy interventions often needed to ensure that marginalized groups are not further disempowered but are given the space to use their knowledge and approaches to participate in such processes51.
Our justice analysis of the safe ESBs for surface and groundwater highlights the challenges of (1) multi-level distribution, (2) water insecurity and (3) water quality. The regional surface and groundwater ESBs are generally in the long-term interests of surrounding communities, as they conserve future fresh water (intergenerational justice: I2b in Box 1). Where depleted aquifers have already caused significant environmental impacts66, groundwater extraction should urgently be reduced, and recharge areas should be protected to restore aquifers to safe levels (NSH to present generations: I2a and I3 in Box 1). Minimizing significant harm to current generations also requires the following. (1) Accounting for multi-level distribution indicates the allocation of allowed alterations between communities, sectors or nations sharing the water body, whether directly or indirectly via virtual water. This allocation is particularly challenging where the safe ESB requires drastic reductions in water use. (2) Minimizing exposure to significant harm should account for water insecurity in different regions of the world. For example, harm associated with poor water sanitation and hygiene conditions disproportionately impacts the health of young children in low-income countries67, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia68. (3) Minimizing exposure to significant harm implies addressing surface water quality guidelines for human use69, not just an allocation of water quantity. At a minimum, water needs to be safe for consumption and irrigation, meaning that acceptable standards for faecal coliforms and salinity must be met. We align our just (NSH) ESBs for water with the safe ESBs while noting that adhering to the boundaries would considerably restrict current use and will require policies to ensure distributive justice.
These proposed surface and groundwater ESBs are independent of green water stocks. Green water stocks are critical for maintaining the atmospheric water cycle, which regulates seasonal precipitation levels34; can support a significant proportion of global agricultural production70 with less impact on aquatic ecosystems than blue water use71; and are closely related to the biosphere ESBs. A recent assessment38 proposed a spatially explicit green water boundary to ensure hydrological regulation of terrestrial ecosystems, climate and biogeochemical processes by defining a maximum allowed deviation (drying or wetting) of soil moisture levels from mid-Holocene conditions. The state variable for green water is defined as the percentage of ice-free land area that in any month has root-zone soil moisture levels outside the 95th percentile of the local baseline variability. The boundary value is set at 10%, corresponding to the median departure level from mid-Holocene conditions. We include this green water boundary in our set of safe ESBs (Table 1), but we limit our inter- and intragenerational justice analysis (I2 and I3 in Box 1) to surface and ground blue water.
We defined and quantified safe and just (NSH) ESBs for sustaining the global commons that regulate the state of the planet, protect other species, generate NCP, reduce significant harm to humans and support inclusive human development (Fig. 1 and Table 1). Because exceeding safe boundaries results in widespread significant harm, our just and safe ESBs align for surface water, groundwater, functional integrity, natural ecosystem area, phosphorus and nitrogen. Meeting these boundaries without transformation, however, could significantly harm current generations. In two cases, aerosols and climate, the just boundaries are more stringent than the safe boundaries, which indicates that people experience significant harm before that Earth system domain is destabilized.
We offer our ESBs as an integration of social and natural sciences for further refinement, in the spirit that the PBs were proposed over a decade ago103. Seven of the eight globally quantified ESBs have been crossed and at least two local ESBs in much of the world have been crossed, putting human livelihoods for current and future generations at risk. Nothing less than a just global transformation across all ESBs is required to ensure human well-being. Such transformations must be systemic across energy, food, urban and other sectors, addressing the economic, technological, political and other drivers of Earth system change, and ensure access for the poor through reductions and reallocation of resource use. All evidence suggests this will not be a linear journey; it requires a leap in our understanding of how justice, economics, technology and global cooperation can be furthered in the service of a safe and just future.
For climate, we based our data on those found in a recent assessment of climate tipping elements16 combined with evidence on biosphere and cryosphere function and palaeoclimate variability (Supplementary Methods).
For functional integrity, we synthesized the literature on the area needed to secure local NCP, including pollination, pest and disease control, water quality regulation, soil protection, natural hazards mitigation, and physical and psychological experiences (Supplementary Methods).
From these sets of thresholds, we determined boundaries that avoid triggering climate tipping elements or maintain multiple local or Earth system NCPs at different levels of likelihood. To set the climate boundaries, we also used temperature ranges of previous Quaternary interglacials and temperature ranges that maintain biosphere and cryosphere functioning (Supplementary Methods).
For surface water flows, we used an emerging consensus in the literature to set boundaries on the alterations (increase or decrease) to local-scale surface water flows that protect freshwater ecosystems and fisheries (Supplementary Methods) and applied this to the global land surface area. While the safe alterations can be summed to a global alteration budget, to ensure aquatic ecosystem protection, the safe ESB is best implemented and interpreted according to the subglobal boundary. To derive the safe levels of monthly flow alteration volumes for all land area globally, we analysed water balance model (WBM) runs coupled with the TerraClimate dataset of monthly climate forcings (Supplementary Methods has further information).
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