Eric,
Doing a search of the hard drive, I noticed several logs called Fiddler.exe.0.dat, Fiddler.exe.1.dat, etc. Apparently an application called Microsoft Application Verifier 4.1 (x64) has been logging fiddler (and only Fiddler) since 9/12/11. Not sure how it got on my box or how Fiddler got added to it's "Image Name" box, but when I remove Fiddler from Application Verifier - all is well. This is repeatable, i.e. add Fiddler back to Application Verifier and it errors again.
In the App Verify log files, there is a node:
<avrf:logEntry Time="2013-05-02 : 13:38:43" LayerName="HighVersionLie" StopCode="0x2202" Severity="Information">
<avrf:message>Called the GetVersionEx API.</avrf:message>
<avrf:formatmessage>Returned 8.3 build number: 8601, service pack: 0.0, suite mask: 0x00000000, product type: (null).</avrf:formatmessage>
<avrf:parameter1>0 - N/A</avrf:parameter1>
<avrf:parameter2>0 - N/A</avrf:parameter2>
<avrf:parameter3>0 - N/A</avrf:parameter3>
<avrf:parameter4>0 - N/A</avrf:parameter4>
</avrf:logEntry>
Notice the LayerName attribute is "HighVersionLie" and it returns the 8.3.0.8601 number. Good call on the "unusual utilities" question. I'm still not sure why the error only manifested itself recently. I'm suspicious of IE10 update but, like I said before, it could be coincidental.
I did buy your book yesterday while I was trying to diagnose this issue. Super good information. I would strongly recommend it to anyone who uses Fiddler on a regular basis.
Thank you for your help and your excellent tool
Tommy Lenz