Advanced Advantage Play

[Malka Sedano]

Theylike me, they really like me.

Most of my advantage play analysis is centered on four types of vulnerabilities that are common to proprietary games and side bets: card counting, hole-carding, edge sorting and collusion. I am going to give a short introduction describing each of these methods. There are individual posts that present the same content in much greater detail.

In my opinion, exploiting loss-rebate opportunities constitutes the most significant revenue stream for many of the biggest AP-teams working today. The lesson that Don Johnson gave to the industry when he beat three Atlantic City casinos out of over $15 million by exploiting loss rebates on blackjack has not been quickly learned.

In this blog you can find extensive analysis of loss rebate advantage play, including details on baccarat, blackjack, craps, roulette and video poker. In particular, the Loss Rebate Theorem gives good approximations for the win/loss-exit points, average playing time and expected profit available. Applying this theorem requires knowing only the loss rebate percentage, house edge and standard deviation of the game.

I have not looked at beating proprietary games through loss rebates. Loss rebate players ignore games where the table limits and potential for win/loss are not high enough to generate significant theoretical profit. Theirs is the playground of the big boys. They want to make that $50,000 blackjack wager or that $40,000 complete bet in roulette.

Received his Ph.D. in Mathematics from the University of Arizona in 1983. Eliot has been a Professor of both Mathematics and Computer Science. Eliot retired from academia in 2009. Eliot Jacobson

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Advantage gambling, or advantage play, refers to legal methods used to gain an advantage while gambling, in contrast to cheating. The term usually refers to house-banked casino games, but can also refer to games played against other players, such as poker. Someone who practices advantage gambling is often referred to as an advantage player, or AP. Unlike cheating, which is by definition illegal, advantage play exploits innate characteristics of a particular game to give the player an advantage relative to the house or other players. While not illegal, advantage play may result in players being banned by certain casinos.

A skillful or knowledgeable player can gain an advantage at a number of games. Card games have been won by card sharps for centuries. Some slot machines and lotteries with progressive jackpots can eventually have such a high jackpot that they offer a positive return when played long term, according to gambling mathematics, though this requires often difficult to acquire information about the settings of the specific slot machine and specific casino, a knowledge of statistics and probability, as well as a large enough bankroll to withstand the inevitable volatility. Some online games can be beaten with bonus hunting.

Sports and horse betting can be beaten by placing arbitrage bets, which involve placing bets at different bookmakers who are offering different lines (odds). Many online sports books now offer bonuses like free bets or free money. These bonuses usually come with a stipulation that the bettor place a certain number of bets. For example, a site may offer a bettor $50 free if they deposit $100 and place a total of $1000 in bets. These can reduce the vig taken by the house or even offer the bettor a small advantage. [citation needed]

Another form of advantage can be found by betting the "middle" on a sports event. This situation occurs when two bookmakers are offering different lines on the same event, or if a bettor has placed a bet and the bookmaker changes the line. The bettor simply takes the most favorable lines at each bookmaker, and if the result of the contest is between the numbers, or in the "middle", then the bettor wins both bets.

Using special offers provided by bookmakers it is possible for a skilled bettor to put the odds in their favor. Special offers may include; cashback on specific events, enhanced odds and comp points. To profit from these specials, a skilled bettor will use betting, laying and dutching[1] to create their own book on an event that may not guarantee profit but will still put the odds in their favor instead of the bookmaker(s) involved. Sign up bonuses are also classed as special offers and can be used in a similar way to lock in a profit regardless of the result using the principles of matched betting.

Betting exchanges offer advantage players a chance to make a larger profit than possible with bookmakers because exchanges charge commission only on the net winnings[2] in a particular betting market. One way to make money on the exchanges is "trading" - in the above example, the Jets might be a favorite decimal odds of 1.90 to defeat the Bills. If a "trader" thinks these odds too long he may bet $1000 on the Jets, and should he prove correct and the odds on the Jets get shorter, "lay off" by laying, say, a $1016 bet against the Jets at 1.87. If the Jets win, he collects $900 on his bet on the Jets and pays out approximately $884 on the bet he laid against the Jets. If the Jets lose, he loses his $1000 stake on the Jets but keeps the $1016 stake on the bet he laid against the Jets. Either way, the "trader" makes a $16 profit and he will pay a commission only on that profit (usually not more than 5% or 80 cents in this example) for a net profit of $15.20 regardless of the result. Of course, if the odds go the wrong way the "trader" may lose money but most exchanges do not charge a commission in the event of a net loss.

Blackjack and other table games can sometimes be beaten with card counting, hole carding, shuffle tracking, edge sorting, or several other methods. The players most skilled in these techniques have been nominated to the Blackjack Hall of Fame.

Some video poker games with a progressive jackpot for a royal flush offer in excess of 100% payback when the jackpot amount exceeds a certain level. Organized teams of video poker players are known to occupy banks of machines in this situation, playing until the jackpot is won (which may take many hours).[7]

Poker can offer a long-term advantage to a skilled player because it is played against other players and not against the house. The casino usually takes a rake (commission) or a time charge. Whether a poker player can win enough from the game to cover the rake and make a profit depends, aside from the rake level, not only on the player's skill, but also on the opposition's lack thereof - the degree of difficulty can vary widely from casino to casino. Tables with relatively easy opposition are referred to as "soft."

There is another advantage to playing poker as opposed to games where play is against the house: since the house has no direct interest in the outcome of a poker game, successful poker players can operate openly without risk of being banned by casinos.

While in the short term luck primarily determines a poker player's results, over the long term the skilled player will invariably profit if playing against weaker competition. A player can profit from their skill in many ways. For example, by understanding pot odds and implied odds, a player can assess whether it will be profitable to chase a flush or straight draw. Identifying exploitable patterns in an opponent's play also gives the skilled player an edge. For example, a weak opponent might almost never bluff, or might bluff far too often. Or an opponent might make huge bets only as bluffs, and make smaller bets with good hands (or vice versa). A skilled player noticing such patterns in an opponent's play can make better decisions when facing a bet from that player.

In live settings, some players will take advantage of tells, that is, opponent facial expressions and mannerisms that may give away information about the strength of the player's hand. Skilled players use all available information (not only an opponent's actions earlier in a hand, but also his or her actions during previous hands) to assess which action will be most profitable, be it a call or a fold, a bluff or a bet for value.

Experts disagree about whether or not an advantage can be gained at some other games. One example is dice control. Authors Stanford Wong[8] and Frank Scoblete[9] have stated that by setting and throwing the dice in a certain way players can alter the odds at the game of craps enough to gain an advantage.

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