Area Forecast Discussion
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT THU MAR 29 2007
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL WAFTING ONTO THE E COAST DUE TO A PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE THAT HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE. NO CHANGES TO
CURRENT ZFP PACKAGE BUT ATLC CWF ZONE TO BE BOOSTED A LITTLE IN WIND
SPEED BUT SEAS STILL WITHIN EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. ADVISORY
CRITERIA LIKELY THOUGH FOR FRIDAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE AREA.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES BECOME FOCUSED BETWEEN CUTOFF LOW OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ANOTHER UPPER LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MOST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL
VORT MAX ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...WHICH...
COMBINED WITH STRONGER EASTERLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. WILL INCREASE
POPS TO REFLECT THIS...AND LOWER MAX TEMPERATURES JUST A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE THROUGH
SATURDAY...BUT WITH LOWER WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED...WILL LIMIT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY...AS CENTRAL PLAINS CUTOFF LOW OPENS INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED
WAVE AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL ENSURE A CONTINUATION OF SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
WEATHER THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ARE NOW IN MUCH STRONGER AGREEMENT ON A
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS PERSISTENT HEIGHT
FALLS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA HELP TO
REESTABLISH THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
AMONG THE MODELS ON A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING RAPIDLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THIS
FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT TO MAKE IT TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
WILL INDICATE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TOWARD THE END OF THIS FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
THE WIND SPEEDS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY BEHIND A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD EVEN BE ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE EAST COAST
SITES AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.
THE SKY CONDITIONS SHOULD MOSTLY STAY IN THE VFR CONDITIONS...EXCEPT
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
TIME TO TIME FOR MOST OF THE EAST COAST SITES.
&&
.MARINE...
SEAS ARE GENERALLY RUNNING IN THE 2-4 FOOT RANGE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS...AND SHOULD REMAIN IN THIS
RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...EASTERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CRITERIA BEING MET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...IT APPEARS THAT ANOTHER
SWELL EVENT MAY AFFECT THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND PALM BEACH
COUNTY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE TO HIGH FOR ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVERHEAD THIS WEEKEND...
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SOME DRYING OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 35-40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY/MONDAY AFTERNOONS...
BUT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 80 72 79 / 10 20 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 72 79 73 78 / 10 20 10 10
MIAMI 71 81 72 80 / 10 20 10 10
NAPLES 64 86 65 85 / - 20 10 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
438 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2007
.SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO FLORIDA LATER
TODAY. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. AND AN
INCREASE IN WINDS. NO MENTION OF PRECIP. TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSER TO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND AVOID MOST OF FLORIDA WITH
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THIS RIDGE WEAKENING AND WILL ALLOW A
DECENT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATER THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET WILL AFFECT
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK "COOL" FRONT. WINDS WILL GUST TO OVER 2O KT
AT THE EAST COAST TAFS AND NO SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR KAPF. A
FEW SHRA WILL ALSO MOVE ONSHORE OF THE EAST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
&&
.MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WITH THE COOL FRONT AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE TEMPORARILY TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE TONIGHT. SEAS IN TURN WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATER TONIGHT, SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO UNDER 6 FEET
AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH FIRE WEATHER SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 70 79 67 / 20 - 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 70 79 69 / 10 - 0 0
MIAMI 81 69 80 68 / 10 - 0 0
NAPLES 85 64 83 61 / 10 - 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2007
.UPDATE...
THE CURRENT FIRST PERIOD FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...
WITH NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASE IN EASTERLY WIND
SPEEDS...LOW CLOUD COVER...AND SHOWER CHANCES EXPECTED.
70/DD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 438 AM EDT FRI MAR 30 2007/
SYNOPSIS...A MID LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL ALLOW A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TO PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO FLORIDA LATER
TODAY. THE MAIN CHANGE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. AND AN
INCREASE IN WINDS. NO MENTION OF PRECIP. TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSER TO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY, WINDS WILL DECREASE. THE NEXT COOL FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND AVOID MOST OF FLORIDA WITH
BROAD MID LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THIS RIDGE WEAKENING AND WILL ALLOW A
DECENT SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATER THURSDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
POSSIBLY SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION...A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH VFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET WILL AFFECT
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK "COOL" FRONT. WINDS WILL GUST TO OVER 2O KT
AT THE EAST COAST TAFS AND NO SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED FOR KAPF. A
FEW SHRA WILL ALSO MOVE ONSHORE OF THE EAST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SO THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY.
MARINE...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE WITH THE COOL FRONT AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE TEMPORARILY TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
DECREASE TONIGHT. SEAS IN TURN WILL INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THIS
AFTERNOON. BY LATER TONIGHT, SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO UNDER 6 FEET
AND GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...NO PROBLEMS WITH FIRE WEATHER SINCE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 40 PERCENT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 71 79 68 / 20 - 0 0
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 70 79 69 / 10 - 0 0
MIAMI 81 69 80 68 / 10 - 0 0
NAPLES 85 64 83 61 / 10 - 0 0
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...54/BNB
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2007
.DISCUSSION...WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
ALMOST UNNOTICED LAST EVENING. THE ONLY AFFECT WAS TO INCREASE THE
WIND FLOW AND BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH IT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF THE N.C. COAST AND WILL CONTINUE HEADING
SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BUT UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, RIP CURRENT WILL BE AT A HIGH THREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. ANOTHER REINFORCING DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
FRIDAY TO EXTEND THIS PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER. FOR NOW, STAYED WITH
20 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. WE MAY END UP
RAISING THESE POPS TO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS WITH EASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING. CIGS OF AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET POSSIBLE
ALONG THE E CST TERMINALS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE ABOVE 12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KT AND THEN DECREASING TO LESS THAN 12 KT AFTER 00Z.
&&
.MARINE...EAST WINDS WERE AT 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BAY. SCA UP UNTIL 8 AM AND THEN A SCEC WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO AROUND NOON MAINLY FOR THE WINDS. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
SEAS WILL IN TURN SUBSIDE TO 5 FEET OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH'S WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 30 TO NEAR 40
PERCENTILE RANGE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY OVER THE CWA SO THAT
SHOULDN'T BE A FACTOR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 66 81 68 / - - 0 -
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 69 81 71 / - - 0 -
MIAMI 80 68 82 69 / - - 0 -
NAPLES 86 63 87 65 / 0 - 0 -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ630-
AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...30/KOB
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1059 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2007
.UPDATE...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WAS DISSIPATING OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THIS MORNING...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE HIGH
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON KEEPING THE WINDS IN A EASTERLY FLOW AT 15 TO 20 MPH
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND 10 TO 15 MPH OVER REST OF THE CWA.
THE PWAT FROM NASSAU BAHAMA WAS 0.82 INCHES AND THIS SHOULD WORK
INTO THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO THE CURRENT DEW POINTS SHOULD
REMAIN STEADY OVER THE EAST COAST AREAS IN THE MID 50S...WHILE
REST OF THE CWA SHOULD FALL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 50S ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS. THIS SHOULD ONLY ALLOW
FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SO
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FREE OF SHOWERS.
THE TEMPS SHOULD ALSO WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 80S EAST COAST TO THE
MID 80S ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA. SO WITH THE WARM TEMPS AND LOW DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE CWA...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL INTO
THE 40S OVER THE EASTERN AREAS AND INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS. SO WILL ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS
BEING AROUND 15 MPH.
FOR THE MARINE PACKAGE...HAVE DROP THE SCA DOWN TO A SCEC FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 7 FEET. THE WINDS
WERE ALSO COMING IN AT 15 TO 20 MPH THIS MORNING OVER LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. SO HAVE PUT UP A SCEC FOR THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLAN.
&&
BAXTER (54)
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2007/
DISCUSSION...WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CAME THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
ALMOST UNNOTICED LAST EVENING. THE ONLY AFFECT WAS TO INCREASE THE
WIND FLOW AND BRING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WITH IT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING OFF THE N.C. COAST AND WILL CONTINUE HEADING
SOUTHEAST AND THIS SHOULD LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. BUT UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON, RIP CURRENT WILL BE AT A HIGH THREAT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY WITH PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. ANOTHER REINFORCING DRY FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER
FRIDAY TO EXTEND THIS PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER. FOR NOW, STAYED WITH
20 PERCENT CHC OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. WE MAY END UP
RAISING THESE POPS TO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS WITH EASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING. CIGS OF AROUND 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET POSSIBLE
ALONG THE E CST TERMINALS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES BUT NOT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN TAFS. WINDS WILL BE ABOVE 12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO AROUND 18 KT AND THEN DECREASING TO LESS THAN 12 KT AFTER 00Z.
MARINE...EAST WINDS WERE AT 20 KNOTS AND GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BAY. SCA UP UNTIL 8 AM AND THEN A SCEC WILL
BE IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO AROUND NOON MAINLY FOR THE WINDS. THESE
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS.
SEAS WILL IN TURN SUBSIDE TO 5 FEET OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD THROUGH MID WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH'S WILL DROP TO THE UPPER 30 TO NEAR 40
PERCENTILE RANGE NEXT FEW DAYS OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY OVER THE CWA SO THAT
SHOULDN'T BE A FACTOR.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2007
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WAS ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW TO
CONTINUE OVER THE CWA. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES MOVES SOUTH INTO NORTH FLORIDA BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWA IN A EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
FLOW...AND KEEP DRIER AIR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS TIME.
THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS THAT COULD DEVELOP OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND GET PUSH ONSHORE ALONG THE EAST COAST
AREAS ESPECIALLY IF A CONVERGENCE LINE SETS UP OFF THE BAHAMA
ISLANDS. SO WILL KEEP A SILENT 10 POPS ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND EAST
COAST AREAS OF THE CWA DURING THIS TIME.
.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS
THE STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES OVER NORTH FLORIDA. ANOTHER MUCH
STRONGER FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE NEXT WEEK
FROM THE NORTH BRINGING COOLER WEATHER TO THE AREA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AHEAD OF THIS STRONG COLD FRONT...THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL 110 KNOT JET STREAK
THAT COULD BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. SO HAVE
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS WITH EASTERLY WINDS
CONTINUING. SOME CIGS OF 4 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SO
PLACED TEMPO BKN040 DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE EAST COAST SITES.
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE ESE AOA 12 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
18-20 KT AND THEN DECREASING TO LESS THAN 12 KT DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN RUNNING AROUND 15 KNOTS
FROM THE EAST OVER THE ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...EXCEPT FOR
THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WHERE THEY BEEN COMING IN AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
TONIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WHERE THEY WILL
REMAIN AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THE WINDS WILL THEN FALL BELOW 15 KNOTS IN THE OFFSHORE GULF
WATERS ON SUNDAY...AND REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE SWINGING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION. THE
WINDS OVER REST OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 15
KNOTS THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE ALSO SWINGING SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
THE SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WHERE THEY WILL BE 6
FEET TONIGHT. THE NORTHEAST SWELLS THAT IS ALSO AFFECTING PALM
BEACH COUNTY WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUNDAY.
SO WILL DROP THE SCEC FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...EXCEPT FOR
THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT DUE TO THE WIND SPEEDS AND SEAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE TEMPS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S
WITH THE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE TEMPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WARM UP INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S WITH THE
DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SO WILL CONTINUE THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS UNTIL 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING.
THE TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
THE DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST AREAS FOR SUNDAY. THIS WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO FALL DOWN TO NEAR THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUES FOR COUPLE OF HOURS. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR THIS AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
REST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE
FOR SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 67 81 68 84 / 10 10 10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 81 72 83 / 10 10 10 10
MIAMI 68 82 70 84 / 10 10 10 10
NAPLES 61 87 64 87 / - - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ069-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...54/BNB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
445 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY WEST OF BERMUDA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WILL MOVE EAST AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
SINCE A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BLOCK ANY MOVEMENT TOWARDS US. BUT BY
MID WEEK, THIS RIDGE MOVES SOUTH AND FLATTENS AND THEN A SHORT
WAVE STARTS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAKE
ITS WAY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT
WILL START MOVING MUCH SLOWER THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THAN EARLIER
EXPECT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING STARTS
TO DIG IN FURTHER ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL SEND
THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE ALMOST NIL UNTIL THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY.
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE FORECAST FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BUT EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOLER
AND DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA THURSDAY,
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST AREAS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER
30 PERCENTILE RANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE 20 FOOT WINDS
STAYING UNDER 15 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AREAS.
SOUTHEASTERLIES SHOULD HELP BRING MOISTURE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 81 69 82 69 / 0 - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 71 81 71 / 0 - - -
MIAMI 81 70 82 70 / 0 - - -
NAPLES 84 65 85 66 / 0 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007
.UPDATE...EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST. THE
JUPITER WEB CAM SHOWS WELL-FORMED RIPS THIS MORNING AND STILL A
SMALL SWELL SHOWING UP...BUT PROBABLY ONLY 1-2 FT. JUST TALKED WITH
OCEAN RESCUE AT MIAMI BEACH AND THEY HAVE RIPS OUT THERE THIS
MORNING AND HAD SEVERAL RESCUES YESTERDAY...MAINLY WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON LOW TIDE. HE EXPECTS ANOTHER DIFFICULT DAY
TODAY GIVEN THAT LOW TIDE IS IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN TODAY. BASED ON
THIS INFO...WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WX STMT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG OUR ATLANTIC BEACHES.
/GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY WEST OF BERMUDA
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007
.UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES PLANNED TO MORNING UPDATES. FCST WINDS
HAVE BEEN A LITTLE RELUCTANT TO RESPOND TO WEAKENING GRADIENT.
WITH THIS IN MIND, HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE RISK OF RIPS TO HIGH
FOR ALL OF PALM BEACH COUNTY COAST. CURRENTLY, WINDS HAVE BEEN
BEGINNING TO VEER MORE TO THE SE AND THIS INDICATIVE ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH CLOUD MOTION AND ALSO THIS MORNING'S 12Z MFL
SOUNDING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A WEAKENING TREND FOR RIP CURRENTS
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MARINE ZONES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.
ALSO LOOKING AT THE SOUNDING STRONG CAP PERSISTS AT AROUND 6K SO
SHRA ACITIVITY SHOULD STILL BE AT A MINIMUM WITH PWAT REMAINING
BELOW .75 AND THE K INDEX IN THE NEGATIVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 AM EDT SUN APR 1 2007/
UPDATE...EXPANDED THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COAST. THE
JUPITER WEB CAM SHOWS WELL-FORMED RIPS THIS MORNING AND STILL A
SMALL SWELL SHOWING UP...BUT PROBABLY ONLY 1-2 FT. JUST TALKED WITH
OCEAN RESCUE AT MIAMI BEACH AND THEY HAVE RIPS OUT THERE THIS
MORNING AND HAD SEVERAL RESCUES YESTERDAY...MAINLY WITHIN A FEW
HOURS OF THE AFTERNOON LOW TIDE. HE EXPECTS ANOTHER DIFFICULT DAY
TODAY GIVEN THAT LOW TIDE IS IN THE AFTERNOON AGAIN TODAY. BASED ON
THIS INFO...WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WX STMT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG OUR ATLANTIC BEACHES.
/GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY WEST OF BERMUDA
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE BY MONDAY
SINCE A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BLOCK ANY MOVEMENT TOWARDS US. BUT BY
MID WEEK, THIS RIDGE MOVES SOUTH AND FLATTENS AND THEN A SHORT WAVE
STARTS TO DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAKE ITS WAY TO THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION LATER THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL START MOVING
MUCH SLOWER THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THAN EARLIER EXPECT ACCORDING TO
THE LATEST GFS. THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING STARTS TO DIG IN FURTHER ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL SEND THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE ALMOST NIL UNTIL THE FRONT REACHES THE AREA THURSDAY.
HAVE NOT CHANGED THE FORECAST FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY BUT EXTENDED THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS COOLER
AND DRY.
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH THE EASTERLY TO EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AS WELL.
MARINE...MAINLY SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE AREA THURSDAY,
WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHWEST AREAS.
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP TO THE UPPER
30 PERCENTILE RANGE THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH THE 20 FOOT WINDS
STAYING UNDER 15 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AREAS.
SOUTHEASTERLIES SHOULD HELP BRING MOISTURE IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY BE LOW HUMIDITY CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA.
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...30/KOB
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...57/DG
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2007
.DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS S FLA WITH LARGE SCALE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SFC RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH AND IS CURRENTLY STRETCHING E-W ACROSS N CENT FLA. ALL OF
THIS PROVIDING US WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AS INDICATIVE FROM THE
12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWING STRONG CAPPING AT AROUND 6K. THIS HAS ALL
BUT ERODED MOST CU AND LEFT US WITH SUNNY SKIES. SFC RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE S AND LIE ACROSS S FLA BY WEDNESDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N FLA. THIS IN RESPONSE TO SUCCESSIVE
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES CARVING OUT
A MORE SIGNIFICANT LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS S FLA EARLY FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT NEXT WEEKEND. IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR RAIN IT LOOKS AS IF YOU
WILL HAVE TO WAIT A LITTLE LONGER AS THIS WEEK APPEARS TO HAVE
ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OR LESS.
&&
.AVIATION...SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE BREEZY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS THEN SUBSIDE WHILE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY
OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN SE THROUGH MID WEEK AND LESSEN TO
SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 15 KT. THEN THEY WILL VEER TO THE NW BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT ALSO OF LESS THAN 15 KT INTENSITY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...WESTERN COLLIER HAS BEEN HOVERING AT 35 PERCENT RH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH 15 KT OF WIND. STILL MAY DROP BELOW 35 FOR A
SHORT TIME BEFORE CLIMBING TOWARD DAYS END. DEW POINTS WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE SE AND THIS
WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES VERY SMALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 71 81 70 83 / 0 - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 70 82 71 82 / 0 - - -
MIAMI 70 82 71 82 / 0 - - -
NAPLES 62 85 64 84 / - 0 - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
715 PM EDT SUN APR 1 2007
A DRY SE WIND FLOW ACROSS S FLA TO PERSIST. AT THE MOMENT SEE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES REQUIRED OF THE ZFP/CWF PACKAGES.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ZONAL FLOW HAS SET UP ACROSS S FLA WITH LARGE
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
453 AM EDT MON APR 2 2007
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE BERMUDA AREA TO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AND WEAKEN BY MID WEEK AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA LATER WEDNESDAY AND
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THURSDAY AND WILL STALL OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS BY THURSDAY EVENING. ANOTHER REINFORCING FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY EVENING. SECOND FRONT
ONLY MAINTAINS TEMP AND RH VALUES LOWERED FROM FIRST FRONT. THESE
FRONTAL PASSAGES ARE A RESULT OF SHORT WAVES DIGGING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE EASTERN U.S. CARVING OUT A NEW LONG WAVE THAT MIGHT LAST
AT LEAST A WEEK. POPS WILL BE LOW (10%) EARLY TODAY AND THE
WEATHER WILL BE RATHER QUIET UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN A 20 PERCENT CHC
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE FRONT. LI'S
TO -4 AND K-INDEXES IN THE LOWER 30S IS ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION
OF THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW, HOWEVER ALONG THE EAST COAST
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR / CEILINGS AROUND 3K FT MAY OCCUR THIS EARLY
MORNING AS SOME CU AND POSSIBLY EVEN A SHOWER BLOW IN OFF THE
ATLANTIC. ALONG THE WEST COAST THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE SHIFTING
WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH THE SEABREEZE.
&&
.MARINE...SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS SHOULD WEAKEN
FURTHER AS THE DIRECTION VEERS AROUND TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE NAM12 AND THE PREVIOUS WRF MODEL SHOWED MINIMUM
RH'S DIPPING JUST BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST 4 HOURS, SO A RED
FLAG WARNING WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR EASTERN COLLIER, HENDRY
AND GLADES COUNTIES. A SEABREEZE SHOULD HELP PROTECT WESTERN
COLLIER FOR GETTING TO LOW ON RH'S. ATTM, RH'S TUESDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 30 PERCENTILE
RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 82 68 82 68 / 10 - - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 71 81 70 / 10 - - -
MIAMI 82 70 82 70 / 10 - - -
NAPLES 85 63 84 65 / 0 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT MON APR 2 2007
A COUPLE OF WILDFIRES...ONE IN SW PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE OTHER
IN N COLLIER COUNTY ALONG STATE ROUTE 29 BETWEEN IMMOKALEE AND
SUNNILAND...WILL SPREAD SMOKE OVER THE NW INTERIOR OF S FLA. WITH
THE SETTING OF THE SUN AND DECREASING WINDS...THE SMOKE WILL NOT
DISSIPATE AS WELL INTO THE ATMOSPHERE. WITH SURFACE INVERSIONS
SETTING UP LATER TONIGHT AND WITH NIL WINDS...SMOKE WILL DECREASE
VISIBILITY IN THE INTERIOR. NOWS WILL BE WRITTEN AND THE AFFECTED
ZFP ZONES WILL BE UPDATED. ALSO...PREVIOUS CONVECTION TODAY OVER
ANDROS ISLAND HAS MOVED NE OFF OF THE ISLAND DUE TO THE PREVAILING
SE WINDS. THIS REMNANTS OF THE CONVECTION MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO THE SE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
THE ZONES.
IN THE MARINE ZONES...ANTICIPATE NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER. SO KEPT A DRY FCST IN
THE SHORT TERM ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. TEMPS
WILL LOWER INTO THE 60S INTERIOR...WITH EVEN A FEW 50S...AND LOWER
70S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER
80S ATLANTIC COAST...TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ELSEWHERE.
ON WEDNESDAY...FLOW LIGHTENS FURTHER ALLOWING FOR GOOD SEA BREEZE
FORMATION AT BOTH COASTS...DEPICTED BY THE NAM12. GFS SHOWS PWATS
INCREASING TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES ACROSS THE LAKE AND PALM BEACH
COUNTY...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED HEATING INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S
ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE
SHOWERS AROUND THE LAKE TO THE PALM BEACH COAST. KEPT IT DRY
ELSEWHERE WHERE THERE WILL BE LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MAINLAND SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY...WITH POSSIBLY ANOTHER FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS A LARGE MID/UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED...SO NO WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED
FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...RESULTING IN SEAS OF GENERALLY 2 FT OR LESS ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING GULF STREAM SEAS TO INCREASE
THEN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH'S ARE TUMBLING OVER GLADES...HENDRY...AND NORTH
CENTRAL COLLIER COUNTIES...WITH LA BELLE DOWN TO 29
PERCENT...AND PALMDALE AND IMMOKALEE AT 32 PERCENT...SO RED FLAG
WARNING LOOKS GOOD THESE AREAS THROUGH 7 PM. THE GFS AND NAM12
SHOW A LARGE DIFFERENCE WITH RESPECT TO RH'S TUE AFTERNOON.
ALONG WITH TAMPA...DECIDED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE...BRINGING RH'S
TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR 2-3 HOURS. IF THE NAM12
VERIFIES...RH'S WOULD TUMBLE TO THE MID 20S...SO NIGHT SHIFT WILL
HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THIS FOR POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS.
&&
.CLIMATE...IT HAS BEEN VERY DRY ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. IN FACT...SINCE THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...IT
HAS BEEN THE FOURTH DRIEST YEAR ON RECORD AT PBI SINCE 1888. AT
NAPLES...THE FIRST 3 MONTHS OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN THE FOURTH DRIEST
AS WELL (SINCE 1943 NOT INCLUDING 1950/1951 WHEN NO DATA WAS
AVAILABLE). PLEASE REFER TO A PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT ISSUED
TODAY FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 69 83 69 84 / - - - 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 83 70 84 / - - - 10
MIAMI 70 83 71 84 / - - - 10
NAPLES 64 85 66 82 / - - - 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
GREGORIA
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
421 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT
IS STILL THE DEEPENING OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING MID WEEK.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER MONDAY AND WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHEAST FLOW. GFS
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INTRODUCED FOR FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SECOND FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTS, GENERALLY LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER A SEA BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST AFFECTING APF WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD NOT REACH ABOVE 4 FEET FOR GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A
LITTLE MORE THAN 4 HOURS VERIFIED A RED FLAG YESTERDAY. THE NAM12
AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGEST A LITTLE LOWER RH'S TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY SO WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG SHORTLY. THE MINIMUM RH'S ON
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S PERCENTILE RANGE WITH THE
SEABREEZES PENETRATING FAR INLAND. SO EVEN IF WE REACH NEAR 35
PERCENT, WE WON'T HAVE THE DURATION. EXPECT A POSSIBLE RETURN TO
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 70 83 67 / 0 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 71 82 68 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 83 71 84 69 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 86 64 85 65 / - 0 10 10
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1013 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007
.UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING EXCEPT
TO CHANGE SKY COVER TO DEPICT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME CU DEVELOPING ON THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE...BUT
EXPECT THIS TO PUSH INLAND AND WITH FAIRLY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN
PLACE AND LOW LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...THINKING
THAT CU WILL TEND TO DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. PLACEMENT OF RED FLAG WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD WITH THE
HIGHEST AFTERNOON TEMPS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS EXPECTED ACROSS
GLADES...HENDRY...AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTIES...BUT WILL HAVE TO
WATCH THE REST OF INTERIOR AREAS AS WELL TODAY. /DG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT TUE APR 3 2007/
DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT
IS STILL THE DEEPENING OF THE LONG WAVE PATTERN BEGINNING MID WEEK.
THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONTS WILL MOVE INTO THE
ATLANTIC LATER MONDAY AND WE WILL RETURN TO A NORTHEAST FLOW. GFS
MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH STILL ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE SOME
THUNDER. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WAS INTRODUCED FOR FRIDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE SECOND FRONT. AFTER THE FRONTS, GENERALLY LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER 50S NORTHWEST TO THE LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST AND HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, HOWEVER A SEA BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST AFFECTING APF WITH A
SOUTHWEST WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT MAINLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT BY THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY. SEAS SHOULD NOT REACH ABOVE 4 FEET FOR GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS.
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A
LITTLE MORE THAN 4 HOURS VERIFIED A RED FLAG YESTERDAY. THE NAM12
AND LOCAL WRF MODEL SUGGEST A LITTLE LOWER RH'S TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY SO WILL ISSUE A RED FLAG SHORTLY. THE MINIMUM RH'S ON
WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S PERCENTILE RANGE WITH THE
SEABREEZES PENETRATING FAR INLAND. SO EVEN IF WE REACH NEAR 35
PERCENT, WE WON'T HAVE THE DURATION. EXPECT A POSSIBLE RETURN TO
FIRE WEATHER PROBLEMS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 71 83 68 / 0 0 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 71 82 68 / 0 0 10 10
MIAMI 83 71 83 70 / 0 0 10 10
NAPLES 86 64 85 65 / - 0 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
253 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007
.DISCUSSION...A DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC SURFACE HIGH WILL RIDGE
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT THEN TRANSITION SOUTH ACROSS THE
LAKE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. MID/UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA. WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST
TONIGHT...AND EXTEND THIS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A LITTLE DRIER ON WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY MID WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY THU NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASING AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AS GFS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT ENOUGH INSTABILITY PRESENT TO KEEP THIS
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE NO DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
PRESENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT AND LIFT IS NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE. THUS...WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED. FOLLOWED HPC QPF FORECAST CLOSELY...DEPICTING BETWEEN A
TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL...FOCUSED FROM THE LAKE
TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. ANY STORM WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS.
LATEST GFS RUN STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...UNTIL
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHEAST TO GIVE THE FRONT A PUSH FRI
NIGHT/SAT. THUS...ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FCST FOR
FRIDAY...IN LINE WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS COOL BY APRIL STANDARDS...DUE TO THE
BROAD TROUGH CARVED OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. GFS EXTENDED
EVEN SHOWS NEAR FREEZING TEMPS IN THE TLH AREA. DOWN HERE...LOWS
IN THE 50S LOOKS LIKELY ALMOST EVERYWHERE...WITH EVEN SOME 40S
POSSIBLE INTERIOR AREAS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 70S. GFS NO
LONGER SHOWS THE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
DID IN ITS EARLIER RUN. IT NOW SHOWS RATHER BENIGN WEATHER UNDER
RELATIVELY COOL CONDITIONS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...MADE NO CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FCST.
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE WHILE
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 6 FT BY SATURDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...RH'S NOT FALLING AS RAPIDLY AS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT RFW IN EFFECT FOR NOW SINCE OBS ARE
APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED SHORTLY
DEPENDING ON TRENDS. WED AFTERNOON LOOKS VERY BORDERLINE FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS...SO KEPT THE INHERITED FIRE WX WATCH IN EFFECT
FOR GLADES...HENDRY...AND EASTERN COLLIER COUNTIES. NAM12 SHOWS
CRITICAL RH'S BEING REACHED ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT DURATION IS
IN QUESTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 82 67 82 / 0 - 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 82 68 82 / 0 - - 30
MIAMI 71 83 69 83 / 0 - - 30
NAPLES 66 82 65 82 / - 0 - 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ070.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WX...GREGORIA
AVIATION...RGH
how...@gmail.com
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
954 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007
.UPDATE...
CURRENT REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM KAMX 88D CONTINUES TO INDICATE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED/LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS
TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT...AS LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESULT IN MODERATE CONVERGENCE DOWNWIND FROM
THE BAHAMAS. WILL ADD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO OVERNIGHT FORECAST FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AT LESS
THAN A 10 POP AT THIS TIME...WITH LONE SHOWER TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF KAPF EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY. OTHERWISE...MIN
TEMPERATURE...CLOUD COVER...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS ALL LOOK TO
BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
70/DD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM EDT TUE APR 3 2007/
AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL INCREASE WHILE
BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR BUILDING SEAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM WHERE SEAS COULD
BUILD TO 6 FT BY SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...RH'S NOT FALLING AS RAPIDLY AS ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT LEFT RFW IN EFFECT FOR NOW SINCE OBS ARE
APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS...BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE DROPPED SHORTLY
DEPENDING ON TRENDS. WED AFTERNOON LOOKS VERY BORDERLINE FOR RED
FLAG CONDITIONS...SO KEPT THE INHERITED FIRE WX WATCH IN EFFECT
FOR GLADES...HENDRY...AND EASTERN COLLIER COUNTIES. NAM12 SHOWS
CRITICAL RH'S BEING REACHED ACROSS THOSE AREAS...BUT DURATION IS
IN QUESTION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 68 82 67 82 / 0 - 10 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 71 82 68 82 / 0 - - 30
MIAMI 71 83 69 83 / 0 - - 30
NAPLES 66 82 65 82 / - 0 - 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
how...@gmail.com
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
454 AM EDT WED APR 4 2007
.DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE AND PASS SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER SOME FRIDAY MORNING BUT
THEN A COOLER AND DRIER WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EASTERLIES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WARMING FOLLOWS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS DUE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING SO THERE WILL BE
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA SO WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. NOT MUCH COOLING IF AT
ALL EXPECTED WITH THIS STALLING FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT ALONG THE WEST
COAST A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY CREATE SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AT 10 TO 15 KNOT MAXIMUM.
DIRECTIONS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO START AND VEER AROUND TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH'S WILL DIP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR ABOUT 4
TO 5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OVER GLADES, HENDRY AND EASTERN COLLIER
COUNTY. FOLLOWED THE RUC40 WHICH LOOKED VERY REASONABLE. THERE
WILL BE NO CONCERNS ON THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SOME RAINFALL. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AFTERNOON RH'S WILL
AGAIN BE A CONCERN THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE NORTHWEST AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 66 82 63 / - 10 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 68 82 66 / - 10 30 30
MIAMI 83 69 84 66 / - 10 30 30
NAPLES 84 65 83 62 / - 10 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...18/GR
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...04/AT
how...@gmail.com
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1036 AM EDT WED APR 4 2007
.UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE OFF THE PALM BEACH COUNTY
COAST AND FROM THE MIAMI AREA SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
WHERE SEVERAL CONVERGENCE BANDS HAVE SET UP THIS MORNING...AS
SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE WATER MEET THE NORTHWEST FLOW FROM THE
LAND BREEZE WHICH SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OVERNIGHT.
THESE BANDS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE
LAND BREEZE HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER...DECREASING THE
CONVERGENCE. I'VE ADDED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
GOING FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT ACTIVITY...AND POSSIBLY A
FEW SHOWERS THAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE EAST COAST CONVERGES
WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT MIGRATES INLAND...AS
INDICATED BY THE 06Z NAM AND LOCALLY RUN WRF. NOT A HIGH
CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS BUT PRECIPITABLE
WATER HAS INCREASED SOME THIS MORNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY
SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT DO MUCH IF ANYTHING TO ALLEVIATE THE
RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR TODAY.
STRASSBERG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 AM EDT WED APR 4 2007/
DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT OVER THE MID SOUTH WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO FLORIDA BY THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH
THROUGH THE STATE AND PASS SOUTH OF THE PENINSULA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. CLOUDS WILL LINGER SOME FRIDAY MORNING BUT
THEN A COOLER AND DRIER WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EASTERLIES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT AND WARMING FOLLOWS. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT IS DUE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY EVENING SO THERE WILL BE
A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE AREA SO WILL
HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS ON TUESDAY. NOT MUCH COOLING IF AT
ALL EXPECTED WITH THIS STALLING FRONT.
AVIATION...THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA, BUT ALONG THE WEST
COAST A SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY CREATE SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE...WIND SPEEDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM AT 10 TO 15 KNOT MAXIMUM.
DIRECTIONS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TO START AND VEER AROUND TO
THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. NO ADVISORIES
EXPECTED ATTM.
FIRE WEATHER...MINIMUM RH'S WILL DIP BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR ABOUT 4
TO 5 HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OVER GLADES, HENDRY AND EASTERN COLLIER
COUNTY. FOLLOWED THE RUC40 WHICH LOOKED VERY REASONABLE. THERE
WILL BE NO CONCERNS ON THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SOME RAINFALL. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AFTERNOON RH'S WILL
AGAIN BE A CONCERN THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE NORTHWEST AREAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 83 67 82 64 / 10 10 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 68 82 66 / 10 10 30 30
MIAMI 83 70 83 67 / 10 10 30 30
NAPLES 84 65 83 62 / 10 10 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
how...@gmail.com
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
312 PM EDT WED APR 4 2007
.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME CONVERGENCE REMAINS FROM THE
REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT LAND BREEZE MEETING THE PREVAILING
SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY AS A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE
CU FIELD HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE UPPER 70S WHERE IT WAS CLOUDIER WITH SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG/DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...ALLOWING SEVERAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES TO
MOVE THROUGH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH. THE FIRST FRONT WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO WOULD EXPECT THE
CONVERGENCE OF SEA BREEZES FROM BOTH COASTS ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT TO POP SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL AS THE MID LEVELS COOL SLIGHTLY. ANY
THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH GIVEN
SOME REMAINING DRY MID LEVEL AIR AND POSSIBLE STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IF MAX HEATING IS ACHIEVED. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HANG
THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH A
POSSIBLE WEAK SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG IT...BUT FEEL MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO RAIN SHOWERS PAST SUNSET TOMORROW. SKIES
WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAINFALL IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY AND SOME AREAS MAY
RECEIVE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM...THIS WILL
NOT BE NEARLY ENOUGH TO ALLEVIATE THE LOCAL DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH EVERY BIT OF RAINFALL HELPS.
LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES FOR
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING NORTHERLY FLOW, AND COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER
TO THE REGION. THEREAFTER THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING A SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER FRONT PASSING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD
OF A DEVELOPING LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS HAS NOW SHIFTED
THIS SYSTEM SOUTH...DEVELOPING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY MORNING AND MOVING IT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN...A SOMEWHAT WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS VERY MUCH
NEEDED GIVEN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SINCE THIS IS A
DRASTIC SHIFT FROM JUST ONE MODEL RUN...I WILL NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT ALONG THE WEST COAST WHERE A SEA
BREEZE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLD
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF KTMB, KMIA AND KFLL
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWS NW FLOW TO
INCREASE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS TOMORROW OR FRIDAY. PORTIONS OF
GLADES, HENDRY, AND COLLIER COUNTY MAY DROP TO RED FLAG CRITERIA
AS SKIES CLEAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. AS THIS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...GOOD
MIXING MAY ALLOW ALL ZONES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ON
SATURDAY...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS AT RISK AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS A BIT MORE
MOIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 66 80 63 80 / 20 40 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 81 64 80 / 20 40 50 30
MIAMI 67 83 64 82 / 20 40 50 30
NAPLES 65 81 62 77 / 10 30 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-
FLZ070.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...STRASSBERG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...RHG
how...@gmail.com
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 PM EDT WED APR 4 2007
.UPDATE...
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF
OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL BE LEAVING 10-20
POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COASTAL ZONES AND ADJACENT WATERS. A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
APPEARS TO BE LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA...AND SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE THAT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WILL VEER AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THIS MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. OTHERWISE...
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER
AND WIND GRIDS TO MATCH CURRENT TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES FORTHCOMING AT THIS TIME.
70/DD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 PM EDT WED APR 4 2007/
AVIATION...SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
FOR MOST OF THE AREA, EXCEPT ALONG THE WEST COAST WHERE A SEA
BREEZE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. ISOLD
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VCNTY OF KTMB, KMIA AND KFLL
DURING THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
MARINE...GENERALLY SOUTH WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH
TOMORROW WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS BEHIND A COLD
FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WINDS ACROSS THE GULF WILL
INCREASE TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALLOWS NW FLOW TO
INCREASE.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS TOMORROW OR FRIDAY. PORTIONS OF
GLADES, HENDRY, AND COLLIER COUNTY MAY DROP TO RED FLAG CRITERIA
AS SKIES CLEAR AND SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIRMASS MOVES SOUTH ACROSS
THE PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. AS THIS DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE...GOOD
MIXING MAY ALLOW ALL ZONES TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA ON
SATURDAY...WITH INTERIOR LOCATIONS AT RISK AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD KEEP EASTERN LOCATIONS A BIT MORE
MOIST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 66 80 63 80 / 20 40 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 69 81 64 80 / 20 40 50 30
MIAMI 67 83 64 82 / 20 40 50 30
NAPLES 65 81 62 77 / 10 30 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...60/BD