Area Forecast Discussion
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
553 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007
.DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY THE WINDS WILL START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.
THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. AS THE
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT'S OVER TWO
INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET...FAVORABLE HELICITY BUT
THE MID LEVEL CAPE WAS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION THE
UPPER LEVELS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH
WOULD HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION. SO THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA QUICKLY...WITH
CLEARING FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 50
INTERIOR AREAS...RANGING TO MID TO UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.
FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 70S...WITH
GRADUAL RECOVERY THEREAFTER.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST OVER THE ATLC WITH
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT
DEVELOP DUE TO THE INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
SLOWLY START TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
TONIGHT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...UNTIL MONDAY WITH NEARLY ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO HAVE MIN RH'S AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 76 84 56 / 10 20 60 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 84 55 / 10 20 60 10
MIAMI 86 75 85 59 / 10 20 60 10
NAPLES 87 75 80 56 / - 20 60 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...60/BD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007
.UPDATE...
THERE IS NOT MUCH TO CHANGE IN THE CURRENT SHORT TERM FORECAST...
AS ALL ELEMENTS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME. SURFACE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
INLAND AND STRONGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. WILL BE LEAVING SCEC
STATEMENT IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS...AND UPDATED
CWFMFL HAS ALREADY BEEN TRANSMITTED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WEAK LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA TO
RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THIS REGION
BY AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS DEPICTED ALREADY...AND
NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
70/DD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM EDT SAT APR 14 2007/
DISCUSSION...
FOR TODAY THE WINDS WILL START TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE LATER TODAY IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW DEVELOPING OVER
EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS.
THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE IS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW. AS THE
LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY MORNING WITH PASSAGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT'S OVER TWO
INCHES...THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET...FAVORABLE HELICITY BUT
THE MID LEVEL CAPE WAS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. IN ADDITION THE
UPPER LEVELS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WHICH
WOULD HELP SUSTAIN CONVECTION. SO THERE IS CERTAINLY SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...THE STRONG FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WILL HELP TO DRIVE THE SYSTEM THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA QUICKLY...WITH
CLEARING FORECAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 50
INTERIOR AREAS...RANGING TO MID TO UPPER 50S COASTAL AREAS.
FORECAST HIGHS MONDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN LOW TO MID 70S...WITH
GRADUAL RECOVERY THEREAFTER.
AVIATION...
VFR ALL TERMINALS. HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST OVER THE ATLC WITH
THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT
DEVELOP DUE TO THE INCREASING GRADIENT FLOW. NO PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED.
MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
SLOWLY START TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE GRADIENT
INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT PASSAGE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED
TONIGHT FOR THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS...UNTIL MONDAY WITH NEARLY ENTIRE CWA
EXPECTED TO HAVE MIN RH'S AT OR BELOW 35 PERCENT AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL WAIT AND SEE IF THIS TREND CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 76 84 56 / 10 20 60 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 76 84 55 / 10 20 60 10
MIAMI 86 75 85 59 / 10 20 60 10
NAPLES 87 75 80 56 / - 20 60 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...18/GR
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007
.DISCUSSION...
LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE
TO SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN BREEZY BUT VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...WITH A MARITIME TROPICAL AIRMASS NOW
SPREADING NORTH ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS MAY STILL OCCUR NEAR WEAK CONFLUENCE
AXIS ALONG THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA...SHOWER CHANCES
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES TO 30-40
KNOTS IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY...REACHING THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY PASSING ACROSS THE
REGION BY SUNDAY EVENING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY COUPLED WITH LINEAR NATURE OF FORCING ALOFT WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A FAST-MOVING SQUALL LINE PASSING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE FORECASTED POPS HIGHER THAN MOS
NUMBERS TO REFLECT THE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. FURTHERMORE...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
APPEARS TO BE INCREASING...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE 45-55 KNOT MID-LEVEL
FLOW PROGGED BY LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS A VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS LIKELY TO BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LONG BUT FAIRLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SEEN IN
MODEL POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS POINT TO DAMAGING WIND AS THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH MOISTENING MID-LEVEL AIR EXPECTED TO
LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
DIMINISH RAPIDLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
SQUALL LINE MOVES OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST. A REFRESHINGLY COOL
AND DRY CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S.
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE
GFS/ECMWF/CMC SUGGESTS THAT AN AMPLIFIED BUT TYPICAL EARLY SPRING
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A DEEP UPPER LOW OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEING REINFORCED BY A SERIES
OF WEAKER WAVES MOVING ALONG NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
UPPER RIDGE. ONE WAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
MID-WEEK...SENDING ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. MOISTURE
RETURN IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME...AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS WITH FROPA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH OCNL MVFR CLOUDS
AROUND 2500 FEET UNTIL HEATING DECREASES. HIGH PRES WILL PERSIST OVER
THE ATLC WITH THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING FURTHER DUE TO AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SE WINDS WILL BE MODERATE WITH AFTERNOON
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS OR SO POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE SHOULD NOT DEVELOP DUE TO THE INCREASED GRADIENT FLOW.
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN VCTS FOR NOW WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS BY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
VERY STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
EVENING...WITH GULF STREAM SEAS RESPONDING BY INCREASING TO 8 FEET
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND REACHING 10 FEET BY MONDAY MORNING.
THUS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS FOR TONIGHT THOUGH MONDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL RETURN TO ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AS VERY DRY AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD
BEHIND COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY
LINGER ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK...AS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 85 54 72 / 20 70 10 -
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 87 58 73 / 20 70 10 -
MIAMI 77 88 58 73 / 20 70 10 -
NAPLES 71 77 56 70 / 20 70 - -
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 PM EDT SAT APR 14 2007
.UPDATE...MOST SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE WIND
FORECAST BOTH OVER LAND AND MARINE AREAS.
LATEST MODELS INDICATE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH LOCALLY RUN WRF...NAM12 AND
GFS ALL INDICATING SUSTAINED WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. EVEN AFTER REDUCING THESE WIND SPEED SLIGHTLY DUE TO LAND
FRICTION (BUT ALLOWING FOR MIXING OF HIGHER WIND SPEED ALOFT) WILL
STILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF AT LEAST 25 MPH OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA...SO DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA STARTING LATE IN THE MORNING HOURS AND PREVAILING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
WL ALSO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL COASTAL
WATERS...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AFTER COORDINATING WITH TAFB, DECIDED TO INCREASE WIND
SPEED OVER ATLC WATERS TO INDICATE GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND STARTING A DECREASING TREND LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
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AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
405 AM EDT SUN APR 15 2007
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST BASE REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM KAMX 88D INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS BETWEEN THE
BAHAMAS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. THIS IS LIKELY
OCCURRING IN RESPONSE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTENSE LOW-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION REGIME DOWNSTREAM FROM A POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE AND AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND BEACH AREAS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
MEANWHILE...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT DEVIATED MUCH FROM THE
DATA AVAILABLE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
TREND OF BRINGING COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENS
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND SHOULD BE LOCATED OFFSHORE THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY EVENING. LINEAR/DEEP DYNAMIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RAPIDLY MOVING SQUALL LINE SWEEPING
OVER THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL MAINTAIN VERY
HIGH POPS WITH A WIDESPREAD COVERAGE BUT LOW PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION DUE TO FAST MOTION OF THE LINE. MODEL POINT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
AS STRONG WINDS AT ALL LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL OVERLAY A VERY
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
STILL APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF
THIS IN THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE ZFPMFL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL
FOLLOW PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AND EXPECT RAPID CLEARING FOR
ALL BUT THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BEAUTIFUL EARLY-SPRING
WEATHER STILL APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA ON MONDAY...AS A
COOL/DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS SPREADS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN AMPLIFIED BUT
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A
WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM VORT MAX WILL MOVER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS...AS MOISTURE RETURN IS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS POINT. A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND...
WITH EASTERLY FLOW REGIME RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH ISOLD SHRA ALL TERMINALS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. LLWS ALL TERMINALS THOUGH THROUGH 13Z
AS LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH S FLA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER 14Z...TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS WITH TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AS PREFRONTAL TROUGH
SWEEPS THROUGH TERMINALS FROM NW TO SE SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY
TO SW/W ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. THE COLD FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH BY ABOUT 4 HOURS SHIFTING WINDS TO NW ALL
TERMINALS BY 00Z. WINDS GUSTS TO 45 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
THE MAIN MARINE HEADLINE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE VERY STRONG
WINDS. EXPECT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER
DAWN FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS...WITH DIRECTION GRADUALLY VEERING TO
SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPEEDS IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE WILL BE COMMON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION GALE FORCE
GUSTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. BEYOND MONDAY...WIND
SPEEDS WILL DECREASE BUT GULF STREAM SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE AND SHOULD REMAIN IN ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY.
.FIRE WEATHER...
A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
ON MONDAY...AS VERY DRY AIR SPREADS SOUTHWARD WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DAILY THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE PENINSULA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 52 74 57 / 80 10 - -
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 55 74 56 / 80 10 - -
MIAMI 85 56 74 57 / 80 10 - -
NAPLES 77 58 71 59 / 80 - - -
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-
FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ063-FLZ066-FLZ067-FLZ068-FLZ069-FLZ070-FLZ071-FLZ072-
FLZ073-FLZ074-FLZ075.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-
AMZ670-AMZ671.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ610.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ630.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ676.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ656-GMZ657.
&&
$$
LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...15/JR