Poll: Whitmire's 7 percentage point lead over useless black POS Jackson Lee persists as December mayoral runoff nears

[Aleve]

State Sen. John Whitmire maintains a 7 percentage point lead over
U.S. Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee in the Houston mayoral race, with a
fifth of likely voters having yet to make up their minds just weeks
before the December runoff, a latest poll shows.

Researchers identified 805 likely Houston voters from Nov. 13 and 18
and found that 42% of them supported Whitmire and 35% backed Jackson
Lee. These figures are nearly identical to their vote shares in the
general election, where Whitmire had 42.5% and Jackson Lee 35.6%.
The two advanced to the Dec. 9 runoff because neither garnered a
majority of votes. The poll was conducted by the Houston Chronicle,
Houston Public Media, and University of Houston Political Science
and Population Health.

Twenty-two percent of likely voters remain undecided, which is not
unusual in city elections typically marked by low turnout, said
Brandon Rottinghaus, a University of Houston political science
professor and co-author of the poll.

While the undecided electorate represents an opportunity for Jackson
Lee to potentially overtake Whitmire’s lead, convincing these voters
to support her could be a "Herculean task" given the limited time
frame, Rottinghaus said. In past Houston mayoral contests, the
first-place finisher in the general election has won every runoff
since 1977.

Among all likely voters, the ones most certain to cast a ballot in
the runoff lean toward Whitmire, whereas those less sure about
voting in December appear to favor Jackson Lee. For the
congresswoman to secure a victory, her path hinges on quickly
energizing these less committed voters, according to Rottinghaus.


“It's not completely insurmountable, but it is really a challenge in
a municipal election when you've got to juice up turnout, and that's
always a hard thing to do,” he said.

In line with previous survey results, the latest poll reveals
Houston’s voter bases are markedly divided along demographic lines.

Whitmire is projected to have a 43 percentage point advantage among
white voters (63% to 20%) and a 20-point lead among Latino voters
(43% to 23%). Jackson Lee, on the other hand, holds a strong lead
among Black voters (63% to 15%).

More male likely voters said they would cast their ballot for
Whitmire (51% to 34%), while women voters are evenly split between
the two contestants (35% to 35%).




Former mayoral candidate Jack Christie, a Republican who secured 7%
of the vote in November, recently endorsed Whitmire. Rottinghaus
suggested this could potentially nudge more conservative voters
toward Whitmire, especially those who were undecided.

Of all voter groups, young women were most significantly affected by
the recent leak of a recording allegedly featuring Jackson Lee
berating a staffer, the poll shows. Overall, most said the incident
had little to no impact on how they would vote in the runoff.

Rottinghaus said he does not expect any potential new revelation in
the coming weeks to change the candidates’ vote share by more than a
few percentage points.

“It would have to be something pretty significant that would shift
the electorate, and it would have to be one that does it among
certain constituencies,” he said.

Poll respondents said they would like the next mayor to focus on
reducing crime, improving city infrastructure and making housing
more affordable. Notably, voters who named public safety as their
top priority favored Whitmire 60% to 22%, while those who wanted to
prioritize addressing homelessness backed Jackson Lee 56% to 26%.


https://www.houstonchronicle.com/politics/houston/article/houston-
mayor-election-poll-whitmire-jackson-lee-18509492.php