Actual Productivity Data
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Peter Schaeffer
Jan 20, 2020, 8:58:32 AM1/20/20
to Willa Lambert, Houston Rationalists
All,
There is a common assumption that productivity is soaring (driven presumably by AI, robots, automation, etc.). This turns out to be untrue. Check the actual data.
Check FRED series “Manufacturing Sector: Real Output Per Hour of All Persons (OPHMFG)” (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHMFG). The series shows zero growth since 2010. If technology was really taking off it would presumably show up first in manufacturing. The crash in manufacturing productivity growth is the real world.
Check FRED series “Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output Per Hour of All Persons (OPHNFB)” (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB#0). What you will find is a pronounced slowdown in productivity growth in recent years. Note that this downturn (in productivity growth) has been observed in other countries as well.
The "Big Picture" paper on this subject is "IS U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH OVER? FALTERING INNOVATION CONFRONTSTHE SIX HEADWINDS" by Robert J. Gordon (https://www.nber.org/papers/w18315.pdf).
Thank you
Peter Schaeffer
There is a common assumption that productivity is soaring (driven presumably by AI, robots, automation, etc.). This turns out to be untrue. Check the actual data.
Check FRED series “Manufacturing Sector: Real Output Per Hour of All Persons (OPHMFG)” (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHMFG). The series shows zero growth since 2010. If technology was really taking off it would presumably show up first in manufacturing. The crash in manufacturing productivity growth is the real world.
Check FRED series “Nonfarm Business Sector: Real Output Per Hour of All Persons (OPHNFB)” (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OPHNFB#0). What you will find is a pronounced slowdown in productivity growth in recent years. Note that this downturn (in productivity growth) has been observed in other countries as well.
The "Big Picture" paper on this subject is "IS U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH OVER? FALTERING INNOVATION CONFRONTSTHE SIX HEADWINDS" by Robert J. Gordon (https://www.nber.org/papers/w18315.pdf).
Thank you
Peter Schaeffer
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