It's an open secret that while HoTT has the clear potential to be
relevant for practicing homotopy theorists and higher topos
theorists, the field is not yet quite living up to it. There are a
tiny number of people, first and foremost Mike Shulman, who really
work on HoTT as a topic in higher topos theory. The progress
especially Mike has been making is impressive, but to homotopy
theorists who are not into type theory or foundations as such, the
development of HoTT is still at most at the verge of being
interesting.
Jacob Lurie is just the most prominent example, I could give you a
long list of names of top homotopy theory researchers who ought to be
interested in HoTT-as-it-could-once-be but are very dismissive about it
at the moment.
I think this ought to change, and it may change. But changing this
situation will require many more man-years of work on the aspects of
HoTT that are genuinely homotopy theoretic and higher topos theoretic.
Unfortunately, currently large parts of the field are actively pushing away from
this direction, wich does not help to improve the situation.
For instance all the work on initiality of models of type theory is
really something that belongs to traditional type theory and means
nothing to practicing mathematicians. One sees vivd evidence this week
where at MPI Bonn Vladimir is given a "marathon", as he announced it,
talk series on C-systems in the context of a prgram titled "Higher
structures in geometry and physics": it leaves most people except a
handful of accounting specialists utterly puzzled why they should care
about this, and nobody gets away with the impresion that there is
anything remotely to be gained here for topics that, say, a Jacob Lurie is
interested in.
Also the wealth of work on "cubical type theory" so far failed to
really connect to homotopy theory as such. The problem that it is
motivated by, to make univalence compute, is again something that
research homotopy theorists could not care less about; it's pushing
away from instead of towards the interest of people like Lurie.
In contrast, I think it is clear that what needs to be done next in
order to improve the impact of HoTT on research-level homotopy theory
is:
First and foremost, fill that darn remaining issue with the weak
Tarskian universes, such as to finally have as an official theorem
(instead of as something that Mike Shulman finds too obvious to
publish, while nobody else in the field understands) that HoTT has
interpretation in *every* infinity-topos as in Lurie's book, not just
in the (admittedly already imprressive) two or three classes of
infinite families of infinity-presheaf toposes (with strict universes)
that Mike has, thankfully, constructed. Mike explained this here
https://ncatlab.org/homotopytypetheory/show/model+of+type+theory+in+an+(infinity,1)-topos
and if I were in charge of HoTT, I would drop everything else until
the statement on that webpage becomes an officially published article.
Second, really important would be to make progress on formalizing
stable homotopy theory, i.e. "spectrum types" or at least something in
this direction. Homotopy theory is so rich, that most computational
progress in practice is made by "linearizing" problems, in the sense
of Goodwillie calculus, hence by translating problems about homotopy
types into problems about stable homotopy types (spectra) as far as
possible.
For instance it's not too surprising that the HoTT community is
currently stuck with computing but the most evident homotopy groups of
spheres (another reason why any working homotopy theorist feels there
is nothing to be found here): this was precisely the state of the
field of homotopy theory, too, in the 50s, before stabilization and
spectral sequences came along.
Again, it's Mike Shulman who has started to push this topic from a
HoTT perspective
https://ncatlab.org/homotopytypetheory/show/spectral+sequences
but it would be immensely useful if more people in the field (anyone,
for that matter) picked this up and developed this further.
Spectral sequences is *the* tool in modern research level homotopy
theory (see the recent sensational proof of the Kervaire invariant one
problem), it's where all the meat it. But also, it's computational
very demanding. Therefore, potentially, there is a fantastic chance
here for any computer assisted homotopy theory, hence for HoTT. Once
you had a piece of Coq that would read in a tower of homotopy types
and which would then start crunching out the pages of its spectral
sequence, you would be assured that all those homotopy theorists who
previously had "no comment" to make on HoTT would start paying
attention.
In short, I think currently HoTT as a topic in homotopy theory has an
immense ratio of potential over realization. Anybody who cares about
this, and who might take a hint from reactions such as Jacob Lurie's,
should think about investing more energy into research that actually
goes in this direction. Go an contact Mike Shulman, if you are not
sure which precise research questions to tackle. Read all his
articles, to see what the state of the field of HoTT as a topic in
homotopy theory is. Then work on this. I am optimistic that with
effort spend in this direction, eventually people like Jacob Lurie
will tak notice.
Best wishes,
urs
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