How many full-time native English-speaking J-E translators do you think there are?

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Michael Hughes

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Dec 16, 2024, 9:47:02 AM12/16/24
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Leaving aside predictions about what the number will be in years to come, what are people's ballpark estimates at present?

Judging from the fact that there are about 6,000 registered on Proz, 300-ish who are JAT members, several hundred with profiles on translator.jp, I think it's reasonable to estimate around 1,000 freelancers are doing this full-time. In-house is very difficult judge as they tend not to be anywhere near as active online. Between all the video game companies and other firms in Japan with localization needs great enough to justify them, I do think there could be up to 500.

So my best guess is 1,000 to 2,000 but interested in others' insights. Do you think there were ever more in the past (and when was the peak if so)?

Michael Hughes

Bill Lise

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Dec 16, 2024, 10:04:11 AM12/16/24
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Are those the figures you get from searching based on native English?
Two comments.
(1) There are surely many freelance translators who are not on Proz. 
(2) The proliferation of companies doing video game and other localization is not the best measure of the size of the population serving JA-EN translation demand. Such fields are not nearly as large as fields such as business, technical/industrial, legal, patent, financial, pharma, and more, which have been and continue to be the drivers of JA-EN translation demand. Take just patents; 20,000 or 30,000 patents get translated into English each year. They average over 5000 words each, but that alone would make 100 million words for 20,000 filings. 
Not all of that is done at arm’s length, but most of it is. 
And the other fields also have very large demand. It’s pretty hard getting a picture of the native English translator headcount, however, and I think it is safe to say that the great majority of JA-EN is still don’t by NJS translators. 
There are about 550 JAT members at present. 300 on Proz sounds very high. 
I would be interested to hear other figures on all of the above if people have more data points. 
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Bill Lise

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Dec 16, 2024, 10:13:45 AM12/16/24
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I forgot to specifically mention discovery documents for litigation, traditionally a huge demand sector.
At least before they came to be sent to China or India (mostly the former) for JA-EN translation, there were many translators in the U.S. doing that work. 
I know that from doing deposition interpreting, because I see the declaration letters signed by translators in the US, and it is often a translator I have never heard the name of. A silent corps of translators, it seems. China appears to be losing that work now to machine translation, although there are numerous machine translation mills in China as well. They quite often try to sell me their services.
I do think the translator population has shrunk. Work is down, and perhaps fewer people are coming into the field, although entertainment translation appears to be a recent draw for young translators. Perhaps the peak population was five or ten years ago. Hard to tell. 
Bill @ Yokohama

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On Mon, Dec 16, 2024 at 23:47 'Michael Hughes' via Honyaku E<>J translation list <hon...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
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Bill Lise

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Dec 16, 2024, 10:16:36 AM12/16/24
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Another point. If there are around 300 JAT members on Proz, since JAT is becoming quite heavily NJS (over half, perhaps) surely not all 300 are NES.


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On Mon, Dec 16, 2024 at 23:47 'Michael Hughes' via Honyaku E<>J translation list <hon...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
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cpta...@ozemail.com.au

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Dec 16, 2024, 6:17:00 PM12/16/24
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Why even have this convo without first defining what a “translator” is?

 

For reference, here’s my definition of translation and by extension translator:

 

All the things necessary to convert strings of words from one language into strings of words in another reproducing the information accurately enough and the pragmatic effect faithfully enough, and both of these things quickly enough, that the benefit to the client of the translation is greater than the cost.

And, to do this frequently enough, at sufficient volume and profit that it constitutes the primary source of income for the person invoicing for the translation, for at least three months.

 

How many of those are there?

 

And don’t even start me on the lack of clarity around “native language”.

Chris

Bill Lise

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Dec 16, 2024, 6:29:49 PM12/16/24
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“that the benefit to the client of the translation is greater than the cost.”
Well, the benefit to an agency has to be greater than the cost of a translation, because they have to resell it at a higher price to their client. 
For a translation consumer, it is sufficient that the cost be commensurate with the benefit, not less than the benefit, because they’re not reselling the translation.
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cpta...@ozemail.com.au

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Dec 16, 2024, 6:47:34 PM12/16/24
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But do you have any definitions?

Bill Lise

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Dec 16, 2024, 6:54:33 PM12/16/24
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None much different from yours. 
But another point to consider is that, since much translation is being done by MT, which produces English quite a bit better than most non-native English translators who produce JA-EN, I think the definition of NES translator comes into question. Maybe hunan is needed as a qualifier, but surely you mean that. 


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Michael Hughes

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Dec 16, 2024, 9:17:27 PM12/16/24
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Actually, I just checked the latest JAT directory and there are under 200 NES members listed (maybe around 175). The ProZ directory actually now has closer to 7,000 profiles for J-E with English listed as the native language. For clarity, I haven’t cross-referenced with the JAT directory - I was just listing the number of NES profiles on each (incorrectly as it turns out). 

I imagine only a small proportion of the 7,000 on ProZ are even active, let alone full-time (it’s very easy to set up a free profile and they are never deleted unless done so by the user). As you say, there will also be many freelance translators (maybe half?) who aren’t on ProZ at all. 

I know video games are only a small subsection of the industry, but my impression is a lot of the roles are full-time in-house. Is that the case with patents/finance/pharma/IT? I’m not sure. I do know some NES who are full time in-house with agencies in those fields. 

Maybe it's closer to 2,000 overall with all the in-house included, but I can't see how there can be more than 1,000 to 1,500 full-time freelancers unless lots of people are keeping a very low profile.



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Michael Hughes

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Dec 16, 2024, 9:17:35 PM12/16/24
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Michael Hughes

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Dec 16, 2024, 9:17:47 PM12/16/24
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And 'only two or three' in 1958 according to this academic journal article: https://www.jbe-platform.com/content/journals/10.1075/babel.4.1.07hir

Michael Hughes

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Bill Lise

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Dec 16, 2024, 9:39:52 PM12/16/24
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Yes, JAT is mostly NJS these days, including the people who are in positions to make decisions. 
The 7000 figure for Proz is incredible in the strict sense of the word. Ghost accounts aside, Proz at one point was flooded with people doing Japanese-to-English who were natives in countries that never had English as a native language or learned English only colonially, so to speak.
It is well known that Japanese-to-English pays higher than other language pairs, so people were quite cavalier with reporting what their native language was, and learning Japanese just to translate from Japanese to English seems to have become quite a “thing“ in Eastern Europe and China. 
I think rather than to talk about the number of full-time translators, it would make sense to talk about the number of _net translators_, calculated by weighting the individual portions of the time used by translators to actually translate for a living. This is because there are probably very few people who are working now really full-time doing JA-EN translation.
I think a figure of 1000 or so net is reasonable. 
Very few translators work in translation agencies. A better way of saying that is that almost all translation is done by translation agencies that have almost no translators in their employ.

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Bill Lise

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Dec 17, 2024, 1:15:32 AM12/17/24
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It should not be surprising that JAT is now mostly populated by NJS translators. JAT's an organization in Japan and registered in Japan.
A considerable number of NES translators have left JAT and newer NJS translators have joined, and, of course, most JA-EN translation is still done by NJS translators, and almost no EN-JA translation is done by NES translators. That said, we will shortly be able to say that most JA-EN and EN-JA translation is done by MTPE shortly, if that is not the case already.
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John Stroman

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Dec 17, 2024, 5:29:51 AM12/17/24
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Interesting discussion. Have either of you tried to contact ATA or a similar organization in the UK? Regardless of organization histories, I think it will be easier to grasp the number of active NES J>E translators by looking at numbers in countries where the predominant target language is English. I have lived and worked in the US as a full-time freelancer since 1989, but my one and only ATA conference convinced me that ATA would not serve my needs, Too much smoke and not enough fire. I have been a JAT member ever since. It does not bother me in the slightest that the majority of JAT members are now NJS, and I consider that a natural progression.
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Warren Smith

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Dec 17, 2024, 6:22:35 AM12/17/24
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One factor that has a huge impact on the balance of translators in Japan vs. translators in the US, a factor that I have not heard discussed much, is the weakness of the yen.

 

In Jan, 2012, a dollar bought 77 yen. Today it buys 154 yen -- exactly double. That means that if translators charged the same amount in both countries 12 years ago (when I was making a very good income as a translator), and did not change their prices since then, the US translator would cost TWICE as much as a Japan-based translator today.

 

Moreover, Japan has undergone mild deflation lately, while the US has undergone substantial inflation.

 

US-based translators would have to take a huge cut in standard of living (more than half!) to maintain parity with Japan-based translators in terms of price. This is the reason why I left the industry.

 

When combined with the pressure from AI, etc., basic currency exchange issues put the nail in the coffin of the US-based JE/EJ translation industry.

 

Yeah, Bill keeps on saying "The industry is great if you position yourself correctly," but what he doesn't say is that "positioning yourself correctly" means living in a yen-based society, rather than trying to maintain a dollar-based income.  

 

Warren Smith

 

Bill Lise

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Dec 17, 2024, 6:40:43 AM12/17/24
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If you are going after writer-driven work from Japanese clients, being in Japan has advantages that have nothing to do with the exchange rate; Japan is where those clients are. 
Personally, I have neither income nor expenses denominated in USD. I always bill in JPY. I imagine my US and European clients sense my rates have dropped, but I don’t sense that I’m getting more income, because both “coming and going” it JPY. 
Most of my clients are in Japan, for obvious reasons. 
One thing I’ve wondered about is how many translators are working across a currency boundary. I think it’s a bit lopsided. 
Are there that many USD bases translators working for clients in Japan? And I assume I would be asking about agencies in Japan. 
I know numerous translators here in Japan who continue to work for agencies in the US. I don’t know all the reasons behind that, but it could be that most NES translators here would have difficulty in acquiring Japanese clients, and that certainly would be the case with direct Japanese clients. 
Are there many USD-based translators working with clients of either type in Japan?


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Michael Hughes

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Dec 17, 2024, 10:54:59 AM12/17/24
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1,000 net feels low to me... that would mean not much more than a billion Japanese characters a year translated by NES. Judging by how much revenue the honyaku industry in Japan brings in annually - around $2 billion USD (and the proportion of that which J-E makes up - around two thirds), times average rates paid by clients - not received by freelancers (let's say $0.15 per character), and adding another say 30% for J-E volume done outside Japan, I remember mentally estimating that somewhere around 10 billion characters a year are likely translated from Japanese into English for some money at least. I agree most J-E is still probably done by NJS, but 90%?

Michael Hughes

Bill Lise

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Dec 17, 2024, 6:34:06 PM12/17/24
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I think it important to look at the sources of estimates of the size of the translation business in Japan. They often come from agency-run organizations that also have translation schools as members. Large estimates are to their advantage.
I think another aspect of the translator labor market is that people working in-house in Japan are sometimes contract employees used just for translation. It’s probably safe to say that most of them are NJSs and perhaps off the radar screens of organizations. 
I’m not sure what the point is of estimating the number of NES translators, and I think the two important things are the number has shrunk and, as before, more translation is done by non-NES translators than by NES translators. 
These days, the non-NES translators could be taken to include machine translation systems, which has been growing for about a decade and has greatly accelerated recently. 
Added point in the graph, back in 2017 a Japanese patent attorney at a fairly large firm told me at an association dinner I attended that they were already largely using MT and having the output edited by in-house native speakers of English. I think there are a lot of pieces of this iceberg that remain out of sight.

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Perry E. Gary

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Dec 18, 2024, 4:20:53 AM12/18/24
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I've been on their mailing list for some time, thinking their job posts
might lead directly or indirectly to freelance J-E opportunities in my
fields. As you may know, the posters are mostly employment agencies. Has
anyone been in direct contact with any of them or the entities they
represent (URLs are in their posts), to any advantage?

TIA, pg...@gol.com


Tom Gally

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Dec 18, 2024, 4:54:10 AM12/18/24
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Another piece of the iceberg that is largely out of sight is the use
of machine translation by people independently of the translation
business.

After Google Translate suddenly got better in late 2016, I became very
interested in how it could be used in language education, since that
was the focus of my career then. An additional interest was how it was
being used in the real world—by travelers, business people,
researchers, and others—because it is ultimately real-world use that
language education is supposed to be directed at.

However, I was never able to find any reliable data about real-world
MT use. Google presumably had a lot, but I'm not aware that they ever
released any. So I was stuck with collecting whatever anecdotal
evidence I could. I made a point of asking taxi drivers and shop
clerks if their foreign customers ever used translation apps and, if
so, how well they were able to communicate through the apps. (The
responses were mixed.)

I also noticed that faculty and staff at the university where I work
were using MT more and more. I have had many foreign colleagues who do
not read or write Japanese, which is challenging, because the internal
affairs of the university are conducted almost entirely in Japanese.
Until a few years ago, those colleagues were pretty much at a loss
when they received emails in Japanese, and they were left out of the
loop on all sorts of events, projects, and initiatives. But around
2018 or 2019 I started to notice that they were running those emails
through Google Translate and figuring out the gist of them, and they
became a bit better able to participate in university affairs. The
Japanese staff are also using MT more and more to communicate in
English with foreign faculty.

I assume this is happening all over the world in organizations big and
small as well as by millions of individuals. What that means for the
translation business, I'm not sure. On the one hand, many of those
translation jobs would never have been sent to a professional
translator to begin with, because they weren’t important enough to
justify the cost and time. On the other hand, there are certainly jobs
that used to be done by paid translators that people in various
capacities now realize they can do well enough with MT without paying
or waiting for a human translation. And on the third hand, there may
also be cases where somebody starts using MT for some task but
gradually realizes that they need a human in the loop, so they hire a
professional to produce the translation. Except when a human
translator loses or gets such a translation job and knows that MT was
the reason, such MT use will remain largely invisible to us.

Tom Gally

Michael Hughes

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Dec 18, 2024, 5:00:09 PM12/18/24
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There isn’t really any point other than providing a potential baseline for future comparison. I just find it fascinating that it’s such a niche industry yet quantifiable data is so hard to come by. 

Michael Hughes

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Peter

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Dec 21, 2024, 8:49:31 PM12/21/24
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I thought many people on these sites, like Proz do it for side hustle not for full time job. But I have no  idea, just to throw in some more numbers, many people still aspire to become translators, but it is not that easy. https://kentei.jtf.jp/data.php

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Bill Lise

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Dec 21, 2024, 10:43:46 PM12/21/24
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Well, for JA-EN it is hard to tell. Although there are some people there that I know to be full-time or at least self-declared dedicated translators, ther number of people on Proz claiming JA-EN or the reverse but having neither language as native speaks to the desperation of people in "emerging economies."
I suspect that there are also a lot of people listed on Proz who made an account and then abandoned it. A look at the update info gives a hint of that, but it's hard to be confident. I think the most reliable thing you can say about Proz is that it is not the place to acquire quality clients, so perhaps it is not a home to full-time translators.
Of course there will be people piping up and saying that they acquired good clients from Proz, but that does not mean that it is the usual case. The usual case is that of numerous translators under the table waiting for droppings and practicing their quick-draw skills in answering job ads the quickest with the "lowest best rate."
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John Stroman

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Dec 22, 2024, 5:09:27 AM12/22/24
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To those of us still hanging onto this thread, after I posted my query on Dec. 17, I went to the ATA website and sent them an email via "Contact Us." I explained that I was collecting data on the number of J<>E translators in the Japanese Language Division, and I used my corporate signature. I asked specifically if the JLD is still active; the number of members; and if there is a breakdown available for NES and JNS. 

No response so far although the holiday season in the U.S. essentially began early last week, I'll get back to you if I ever receive a reply.

John Stroman


John Stroman

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Dec 23, 2024, 6:28:24 PM12/23/24
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Just as an update, through another translator I was able to contact Hajime Sato, the current head of the Japanese Language Division at ATA.
He replied: JLD currently has approximately 340 members. We don't have the native language data so there's no way to know how many are native Japanese speakers, etc. Please note that our members include both translators and interpreters, and some of them, although not too many, live outside of the United States.

At least that's a start.

John Stroman



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Bill Lise

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Dec 23, 2024, 11:02:09 PM12/23/24
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Thanks for that information.
JAT apparently has around 500 members total (mostly NJSs), down from around 850 a few years ago.
I think it is difficult to estimate the size of the freelancer population because people are leaving translation organizations (is that the case with JLD as well?) and possibly still working, others are perhaps working and were never members of such organizations, and others have simply left translation, some but not all announcing their exit.
I have a strong (albeit intuitive) feeling that the population of NES translators has dropped considerably in the past two or three years.
Another point on the graph is that, up until the beginning of the pandemic, the signatures on translator declarations (when they weren't just "safe-to-disclose" non-translator project managers) were mostly people I had never heard of, and that doesn't include the increasing number of native Chinese speakers that were doing JA-EN discovery document translations and signing declarations. That latter demographic appears to be in the process of being taken over by AI.
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Tom Gally

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Dec 23, 2024, 11:09:01 PM12/23/24
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A follow-up to my earlier comment in this thread about the use of MT by people independently of the translation industry.

When I posted that, I was thinking about people who deliberately choose and use MT for some task.

But there is also an immense amount of passive MT use: people accessing websites that have been translated with MT; people who have their browsers and email programs set to automatically translate texts in other languages; people reading automatically translated posts on social media; people watching AI-dubbed videos on TikTok; etc. Almost none of that translation would have been done previously by a human—it just wouldn’t have been translated at all.

The quality of those automated translations is, of course, mixed, but the fact that they enable people to access information in other languages seamlessly is revolutionary.

Tom Gally

Dan Lucas

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Dec 24, 2024, 3:15:43 AM12/24/24
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The quality of those automated translations is, of course, mixed, but the fact that they enable people to access information in other languages seamlessly is revolutionary.

I disagree with a lot of what Tom says about AI and related issues, but I wholeheartedly concur with the above. I would argue that MT and its ilk have been of huge overall benefit to humankind, whatever the impact on individual translators.

Regards,
Dan Lucas
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Matthew Schlecht

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Dec 24, 2024, 12:24:30 PM12/24/24
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On Sun, Dec 22, 2024 at 5:09 AM John Stroman <stromana...@gmail.com> wrote:
To those of us still hanging onto this thread, after I posted my query on Dec. 17, I went to the ATA website and sent them an email via "Contact Us." I explained that I was collecting data on the number of J<>E translators in the Japanese Language Division, and I used my corporate signature. I asked specifically if the JLD is still active; the number of members; and if there is a breakdown available for NES and JNS. 

No response so far although the holiday season in the U.S. essentially began early last week, I'll get back to you if I ever receive a reply.

I see now that you did get a response from 佐藤　先生
However, the administration side of ATA is undergoing an extensive reorganization (almost a game of musical chairs), and many inquiries to the central admin (even from official Divisions) are going unanswered.
Going directly to the Divisions, as you did, will ensure a timelier reply.

While the information must be taken with grains of salt, you can obtain estimates of the numbers of ATA members who offer language services in specific language pairs from the client-facing Language Services Directory: https://www.atanet.org/directory/

Matthew Schlecht, PhD
Word Alchemy Translation, Inc.
Newark, DE, USA
wordalchemytranslation.com

John Stroman

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Dec 24, 2024, 12:41:15 PM12/24/24
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Matthew,

Thank you for your reply and the link. Unfortunately, I found the link to be inoperable (it would not accept English as either a source or target language in the pulldown menus) . It appears that this site would furnish adequate information if I could get it to work.

John

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Matthew Schlecht

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Dec 24, 2024, 1:00:29 PM12/24/24
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On Tue, Dec 24, 2024 at 12:41 PM John Stroman <stromana...@gmail.com> wrote:
Matthew,

Thank you for your reply and the link. Unfortunately, I found the link to be inoperable (it would not accept English as either a source or target language in the pulldown menus) . It appears that this site would furnish adequate information if I could get it to work.

Maybe it works differently for me.
I ran the search for JA>EN and it gave me 298 hits
280 translators and 140 interpreters (some overlap)
283 individuals and 15 companies
It also gives a breakdown for the Areas of Specialization.


John Stroman

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Dec 24, 2024, 1:22:53 PM12/24/24
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Thank you, Matthew. Very helpful indeed. 

When I clicked on the second link you provided, I got the same results as you did. 

Probably my Win10 acting up again. It's slowly getting wonky, but I'll have to get a new computer to use Win11 because my current CPU will not support it, and I've been putting it off.

John

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