The desktop -- time to say goodbye?
Adri
Notebooks gain market share as prices fall, power rises
When Paul Scheib at Boston's Children's Hospital goes
shopping for PCs, his choice is more often a desktop than a notebook.
Despite price drops for notebooks in recent years, desktop computers
are still less expensive. It's also easier to lock down ports on
stationary desktops to prevent users from downloading sensitive
information onto CD-ROMs or USB memory sticks. Of 5,400 PCs in use at
the hospital, only about 600 are notebook computers -- and most of
those travel only within the halls of the hospital, secured to mobile
carts.
"Desktops are the default choice" except when there is a specific need
for mobility," says Scheib, director of the information services
department and chief information security officer at the
hospital.
But Scheib is one of a shrinking breed. As the price for a notebook
computer with a late-model processor, 17-in. screen and large hard
drive comes closer to that of comparably equipped desktops, notebooks
are becoming the default choice for many companies. With a notebook
and widely available wireless Internet access, employees can work full
time from home (reducing the need for expensive office space), work
more hours for the same pay or keep working when a disaster makes it
impossible to reach the office.
While worldwide PC shipments are expected to grow 12.2% this year,
portable PC volumes are expected to grow 28%, according to industry
analyst firm International Data Corp. (IDC). Bob O'Donnell, IDC's
program vice president for clients and displays, predicts that
notebooks will make up more than half of all PC shipments in the U.S.
by the third quarter of this year, and he expects the cross-over to
notebooks to happen worldwide in 2010. Notebooks began outselling
desktops in the fourth quarter of last year in Western Europe, he
says, and have outsold desktops in Japan for years, he says.
O'Donnell expects "portable PC shipments to maintain double digit
growth rates for the next few years as demand for mobility continues
to shift new buyers from desktops to notebooks."
Notebooks Overtaking Desktops
Millions of Units Shipped in the U.S.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Desktops/ X86 Servers 42.3 39.4 38.1 34.8 32.0
Portables 26.1 26.1 31.9 37.3 42.3
Source: International Data Corp.
The trend toward notebooks is greatest in the weathiest, most
developed countries where both corporate and consumer customers can
afford the $200 to $300 premium for a notebook that is comparably
equipped to a desktop. On the consumer side, many families replace an
older desktop with one or more notebooks, says O'Donnell. The fact
that many colleges require students to purchase notebooks also drives
this trend.
While many well-equipped notebooks are available for under $1,000,
they often require the purchase of external peripherals such as an
external screen or keyboard to make the notebook more comfortable
while used in an office, points out Tom Tobul, executive director of
marketing for the emerging products business unit at Lenovo Group in
Morrisville, N.C. Then there's the fact that notebooks often must be
replaced every three years due to the wear and tear they suffer,
compared with four to five year for desktops, he says.. Roger Kay,
president of market researcher Endpoint Technologies Associates, Inc.
in Wayland, Mass., points out that the more modular design of desktops
makes them easier and less expensive to repair.
Observers differ on how much the price premium for notebooks can
continue to shrink. Kay predicts it will reach "nearly zero" as
engineers, looking to reduce the power used by and the heat generated
by desktops, begin using more notebook components such as power-saving
processors. He also says that while it may cost more to design smaller
notebook parts, once in production they can cost less than their
desktop components because they are smaller and use fewer raw
materials.
Desktop Sweet Spots
Desktops are still the factor of choice in poorer countries where
price is more critical and environmental conditions such as dust, heat
and humidity can be too tough for notebooks. Tobul says more than 70%
of Lenovo's sales in developing countries such as China and India are
desktops. For less than $200, "I can put a very competitive system
together in emerging markets. That really gets quite a bit below the
entry notebook" price, he says.
Desktops often make the most sense where, as at Children's Hospital,
multiple employees share the same system from a fixed location. They
are also the easiest, and least expensive, to upgrade with fast, power-
hungry components, such as quad-core chips, 15,000-rpm hard drives and
high-end graphics cards needed for high-end design or analytical
applications (not to mention games, in the consumer market.)
A desktop system can also be more easily configured for a user's
comfort, says Kay, with separate keyboards and screens which can be
moved to positions where they won't cause muscle or eye strain.
Employees working "at a computer all day long are not going to want to
be working at a notebook," he says.
And while notebooks are one way to encourage after-hours work or to
assure business continues after a disaster, Tobul says some companies
are instead considering virtualizing users' home desktop PCs into two
operating environments. One would be for regular personal use; the
second would use a Virtual Private Network or thin-client computing
environment for secure access to the enterprise network.
Even when security concerns don't rule out use of a notebook, they're
requiring the use of more security measures. "We're seeing a lot more
emphasis on hardware security" in the form of fingerprint readers to
scan users before allowing them to log into a system, says O'Donnell.
Smaller, lighter, cheaper
A number of vendors are considering "ultra-portable" devices with
screens as small as 5 to 7 in., which can still run the familiar
Windows operating system and provide a decent keyboard for typing. But
so far they are only a small part of the market. Ann Avery, manager
of North American Commercial Notebook Product Marketing for Hewlett-
Packard Co., says HP's Ultra Light notebooks account for less than 10%
of its overall notebook sales. But Kay predicted that such systems
will become a "substantial category" in the market -- "like a second
mobile PC" users will take on the road when they don't need a higher-
end notebook PC.
Avery also sees growing integration of WiMax, or wide-area wireless
broadband capabilities, into notebook computers -- an option between
10% to 15% of HP customers are already buying.
Despite years of marketing and development work by Microsoft and major
notebook OEMs, few observers predicted rapid growth for tablet
computers, whose touch screens allow them to be used for text entry
using handwriting as well as keyboards. Kay predicted tablet
functionality "will become kind of a feature of the notebook market"
which vendors can provide simply by adding a touchscreen to a regular
notebook.
But no matter how small, light, inexpensive and powerful notebooks
become, there will always be a segment of the market that will choose
desktops over notebooks. Even so, Kay predicts it will be five to
seven years before only "the die-hard desktop users are left."
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Adri....
Soumik
Each has its pros and cons....but the socio-economic environment
drives the business growth...
Anyway...good work and keep posting!