twenty-year predictions

[Johan Larson]

Twenty-year predictions. Give estimates for each of these probabilities.

1. By 2038, someone other than an American will have landed on the moon and returned to Earth. [30%]
2. In 2038, cab service by driverless vehicles will be available on Manhattan Island. [90%]
3. In 2038, scheduled commercial flights by supersonic aircraft will be available from the US west coast to some point in Asia. [30%]
4. In 2038, at least 10% of all cars on the road in the US will be electric. [70%]
5. In 2038, Americans will spend more time for entertainment in VR than on smartphones. [30%]
6. In 2038, AIs will routinely pass Turing tests against non-expert questioners. [40%]
7. Between now and 2038, Chinese and American troops will have fought a battle against each other that caused at least 100 casualties. [10%]
8. By 2038, at least one currently illegal recreational drug (other than cannabis) will be legalized in California. [50%]
9. In 2038, the US will have implemented a common labor market with at least one other country. [25%]
10. In 2038, ownership of a handgun in Houston, Texas will require a license. [10%]

[Warren Ellis]

In 2038, ownership of a handgun in Houston, Texas will require a license. [10%]

Already at 100%: https://txapps.texas.gov/txapp/txdps/ltc/login.do;jsessionid=1bch1wI3gA5SzGxA0cdVeyg9vNNtBxRp432YnFlhHP02o3RV6F2X!1759193963!1237499207?errorReason=session

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gun_laws_in_Texas#License_to_Carry

[Aaron Pollock]

That's a license to carry a handgun in public, not to own one.

[Warren Ellis]

But since you have to go out in public with a gun, unless you just leave it at home, it still practically counts the same as having a license.