juvenile m-array diagonal cell probabilities for woodchat5 dataset in IPMbook chapter 5, section 2

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David Christianson

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Feb 11, 2025, 1:04:22 AM2/11/25
to hmecology: Hierarchical Modeling in Ecology
I have been stepping through the construction of the m-array from the woodchat5 data set in chapter 5 of the Schaub and Kery 2022 book.  In 5.2.1, the model specifies the cell probabilities on the diagonal in the m-array for juveniles to be the product of juvenile survival and detection probability. However, the text in this section references the matrix projection in 3.4.1 and the life cycle graph in figure 3.5 which both show that the probability a juvenile lives one year is driven by the adult survival rate, not the juvenile survival rate. Perhaps I am missing something but wouldn't the diagonals in the m-array for juveniles be the product of adult survival and detection probability per figure 3.5?  
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