informing Jolly Seber entry with birth data

[Daniel Linden]

I have a model where the J-S entry probability is directly informed by known births, which could be helpful for monitoring species that have a marking delay (young are not identifiable).  Do folks know about any other published examples of this?

There are many varieties of J-S models, with different parameterizations of the entry process.  I have yet to come across an example where survey data of reproduction directly informs entry.  I'm worried there is an obvious example from the early literature that I'm missing.  The closest recent example is an age-structured J-S model (Hostetter et al. 2021), but that uses birth year information for known individuals, not an independent birth survey.

IPMs certainly integrate birth data, but usually that informs the state space model of N dynamics and not the entry process for open capture-recapture.  I'd appreciate any ideas!

Thanks,

Dan

[Matthijs Hollanders]

Hey Dan,

Without knowing the details of the model, are these just known alive states entering the population? If so couldn’t you just give known state probabilities for those individuals and time points?

Matt

Dr. Matthijs Hollanders

Postdoctoral Research Fellow – Faculty of Science & Technology | University of Canberra

Statistical Consultant – Quantecol

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[Daniel Linden]

Hi Matt,

I could probably explain it better.  Let's say we don't have any known ages, just individual entries to the capture history as in a standard J-S model.  In that case, we cannot say for sure when an individual's latent true state went from 0 to 1 for population entry and the likelihood would be driven by the detection process.  But let's say we also have a separate survey of offspring, so we know the relative contribution of births each year (we just cannot easily connect offspring to identified individuals).  An individual that is first seen in year t=3 may have entered in year t=1 or year t=2.  But if there were twice as many births in year t=1 compared to t=2, it might therefore be more likely for the individual to have been born in year t=1 and gone undetected, than to have been born in year t=2.

My model works well and solves a somewhat specific problem, but it also provides other opportunities.  I'm just making an attempt to address previous literature, as my casual searches have not yielded much thus far.

Thanks,

Dan

On May 9, 2024, at 6:01 PM, Matthijs Hollanders <matthijs....@gmail.com> wrote: