THE BOEING OF BIRD FLU — a long read on the new epidemic

[Vinay Gupta (Hexayurt Shelter Project)]

((Excuse the interruption this is important. On aocial here 

https://x.com/leashless/status/1787106348011765876?s=46&t=2M36wjuULZupUvqhKIoehA)

THE BOEING OF BIRD FLU — a long read on the new epidemic 

A bird flu epidemic has started in Texas. It is spreading from cows to humans and other species (cats). Things are going badly. It is too soon to tell if this is the start of a major public health crisis. 

The pandemic response has severe management problems of a kind recognisable in general principle from the Boeing plane safety crisis.

We do not know if there is human-to-human spread yet and severe data gathering issues mean we likely will not know early enough to contain an outbreak. 

The most experienced people appear to be the most worried. That is usually a bad sign in a crisis. 

Links and quotes below. 

Quote begins: 

“But Russo and many other vets have heard anecdotes about workers who have pink eye and other symptoms—including fever, cough, and lethargy—and do not want to be tested or seen by doctors. James Lowe, a researcher who specializes in pig influenza viruses, says policies for monitoring exposed people vary greatly between states. >>> “I believe there are probably lots of human cases,” he says, noting that most likely are asymptomatic.“ <<<

Quote ends.

Comment: 

I won’t bore you with the horror show of the growing list of other species and what percentage of them die of the damn thing when infected: read up on elephant seals if you want to scare yourself silly.

There was a global public health shitshow on covid. Bird flu spreading in humans could be a lot more severe. Public health response will likely be even less effective.

We do not know how likely a human-to-human bird flu epidemic is. However limited cow-to-cat transmission and cow-to-human transmission appear well-established on current data.

How would we know about human-to-human spread?

Read on: 

https://www.science.org/content/article/u-s-government-hot-seat-response-growing-cow-flu-outbreak

Quote begins:

“In the supplementary appendix, researchers said they weren't able to do a follow-up investigation on the sick worker or other exposures among workers at the farm. They also noted that they weren't able to collect follow-up specimens from the patient to track viral loads or shedding duration. "We were also unable to collect acute or convalescent sera to assess seroconversion in the dairy farm worker or household contacts," the group wrote.

A spokesperson for the Texas Department of State Health Services told CBS News that the Texas dairy worker came to a Texas field office for testing and did not disclose the name of their workplace.

…

Data gaps but strong evidence of cow-to-human spread

…

"Sequence data from the farm where the infected dairy farm worker was exposed to presumably infected was not available," they wrote, noting that the sequencing picture so far has gaps and suggests the virus may have been circulating undetected for some time.” 

Quote ends. 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/case-report-bolsters-evidence-h5n1-avian-flu-spread-cow-texas-dairy-worker 

Comment:

We may already have missed human-to-human bird flu transmission in this situation. We just don’t know.

However.

The broad principle of “early detection, early response” is well understood as the keystone of handling novel infectious diseases. To understand more about that approach see https://www.ted.com/participate/ted-prize/prize-winning-wishes/instedd

We are likely now past the “early detection, early response” phase of the current bird flu epidemic in cows. It is widespread and has been spreading for months.

We may be out of the “early detection, early response” phase for human spread. We do not know. 

So far there are no proven cases of H2H, but the data gathering issues are so severe H2H would likely not be detectable at this stage.

This situation is the Boeing of bird flu. We did not wind up here because everything is fine. There are severe underlying public health issues. Godspeed to all.

-- 

Vinay Gupta  hexa...@gmail.com  http://myhopeforthe.world

Free Science and Engineering in the Global Public Interest

UK Cell : +44 (0)7500 895568 Twitter/Skype/Gtalk: hexayurt

"In the midst of winter,  I finally learned that there was 

        in me an invincible summer" - Albert Camus

[Dan March]

Hey Vinay!

Thanks for continuing to include me in this thread.  I was marginally aware of this, but wasn't following religiously.  I was hoping that after the Covid debacle, the CDC was getting an impactful, meaningful review/re-work.  It did get a new director... but...

Did you follow the series of reports on NPR's "Forum" show by Alexis Madrigal?  He and a crew of volunteers wrestled with the problem of very uneven case reporting and ended up feeding information you would think they would be getting directly and easily.  I just started another letter to him basically asking him if he worried that he'll be tempted to move into the gap - again.  I was hoping that getting a new director would help but I think this problem is tougher than the Boeing one because of the fractured governance situation - state, local, etc. all able to go their own way to the detriment of society at large.

And HexaYurts as emergency shelter.  What's your latest version?  I've started dabbling in easy, portable, on-site-assemblable, more durable designs. 

Best,

Dan

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