Our article "Managing climate overshoot" is now available as a preprint

[Graeme Taylor]

Hi all,

The ESS Open Archive community preprint server has published our article "Managing climate overshoot: A risk-based strategy for climate stabilisation": https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.15002445/v Please circulate it to your networks.

Hopefully we will find a journal willing to publish it! All feedback appreciated!

Cheers,

Graeme Taylor

[Jeff Haley]

Airplanes use low sulfur fuel to minimize pollution.  They all have at least two tanks.  Should one tank be loaded with lower cost high sulfur fuel to be used only at high cruising altitude?  Would the contribution to pollution be small compared to the benefits of aerosol cooling?  Would the benefits be greatest when done at tropical latitudes where updrafts lift air to the stratosphere?

Jeff Haley

ReflectiveEarth.org

[Aria Mckenna]

I find these to be some fascinating questions. 

I also thought the talk yesterday was extremely insightful in emphasizing the importance for mutual cooperation when coming up with a strategy so that we can make sure we are phasing down on our negative impacts, simultaneously with the masking of inherent  warming.

I had wanted to ask about the concept of multiple governing bodies working together to strategize each body's role in helping to ultimately restore a safe climate and a healthy planet at the same time. ( I was not able to talk as I was in the midst of cleaning and trying to get out of the door at the same time!)

(Please excuse typos and talk to text! 😆 - Sacrificing email perfection to optimize productivity and health!)

Warmest Thanks For Everything You Do,
Aria McKenna
Brand: "Saving Planet Us"
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Watch My 'BECOMING THE CHANGE' Roundtable at:
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[Michael MacCracken]

Hi Jeff--I think the idea is interesting except I think the last aspect is unlikely because the upward air motion is initiating precipitation which would likely reduce the injection you are suggesting.

The issue of SO2 inject was looked at during the Climate Impact Assessment Program (CIAP) run by the Department of Transportation on the proposed fleet of supersonic aircraft back in the early 1970s. I have those reports and will take a look to see if there might be relevant information, including using the very  early climate model that  I had developed a few years earlier.

Best, Mike MacCracken

[Dr Tom Harris]

Hi,

Just a guess, but I imagine that would create more and longer lasting vapour trails as the aerosols would act as cloud condensing nuclei. Their effect would be to increase cirrus clouds which trap more heat from below than they reflect from above. 

Tom

Dr Tom Harris
Ross-on-Wye UK
Born at 318 ppm CO2 - 26% less than today

HPAC Member

https://drtomharris.substack.com

Any views or opinions expressed in this email are entirely my own and do not represent the views of my previous clients including InnovateUK or any projects I was involved in professionally.

[Dan Miller]

Haphazard SRM causes problems by shifting air currents in unpredictable ways. SRM needs to be done in a balanced way between northern and southern hemispheres.

We need to SRM, but it should be done is a careful, planned way. Specifically, we should be focused on preventing an AMOC collapse.

See: Solar-Geoengineering Can Stop AMOC Collapse with Douglas MacMartin

https://youtube.com/live/lPnTQIXZnDc

One more thing on airplanes, I’m not sure if airplane engines will work well with high-sulfur fuels.

Dan

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[Michael MacCracken]

Hi Jeff--As I noted, I ventured into my basement collections and found the report "The Effects of Stratospheric Pollution by Aircraft", which was the summary report of the CIAP assessment by the DOT on potential fleet of supersonic aircraft as proposed by the French/British Concorde and a proposed Soviet fleet of such aircraft. This report, which is about 2 inches thick, came out in December 1974--the program did go on regarding some of the questions that remained. I've scanned its coverage in the summary of potential sulfate climate effects. It explains the calculations in a pretty clear way.

In total, the report is 860 pages or so. I went looking for it on the Web and found it at 

https://babel.hathitrust.org/cgi/pt?id=pur1.32754075976914&seq=1 

where you can page through it. The opening summary is xxvii (27) pages long, and then there is a later section on the climatic implications starting on page 39. Appendices D and E also have relevant information. You might find it interesting to take a look--see what we knew and thought 51 years ago now. One of the recommendations is to limit the sulfur in the fuel, especially as the supersonic (and subsonic) fleets grow. Another was to reduce NOx emissions--it was work on this assessment, which helped clarify the ins and outs of stratospheric chemistry, that got scientists considering both CFC impacts on the ozone and the effects of a nuclear war on the ozone (explosions of >1Mt would carry a lot of NOx into the stratosphere.

Overall, it was, I believe, the first real assessment of stratospheric chemistry, etc. and is probably an assessment worthy of referring to as we consider potential SAI.

Best, Mike MacCracken

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[Paul Klinkman]

Updrafts lift moist air to the stratosphere, creating thunderclouds.  This is because a mole of H2O molecules masses 18 grams, 16 for the oxygen atom and one each for the two hydrogen atoms, while a mole of roughly 78% N2 and 21% O2 molecules masses 29 grams.  Moist air has less mass.  Dry air sinks and slides underneath moist air which rises.  

One problem with putting sulfur dioxide into moist air updrafts, and I name sulfur dioxide because the side issues with sulfur dioxide will only lessen in discussions when we're all upfront about them in order to reach real consensus, is that moist air will condense with altitude and the sulfur will mostly be washed out with rainfall.  This problem might apply to any SAI particle.

It's possible to create a dry updraft with solar heat.  This would work in the polar spring/summer but not in the polar winter, because of no sun at all.  On the other hand there's no sun at all to block out in the polar winter.

Your suggestion to use chemtrails for real might be well-meant, but it also might be likely to get true believer wingers riled up because of the whole vastly well-financed "chemtrails" mythology.

Yours in Hope,

Paul Klinkman