The short-term comprehensive impact of the phase-out of global coal combustion on air pollution and climate change
br...@chesdata.com
The short-term comprehensive impact of the phase-out of global coal combustion on air pollution and climate change (July 24, 2025)
Abstract
With the continuous intensification of global warming, the reduction and ultimate phase-out of coal combustion is an inevitable trend in the future global energy transformation. This study comprehensively analyzed the impact of phasing out coal combustion on global emissions and concentrations of air pollutants, radiative fluxes, meteorology and climate using Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). The results indicate that after the global phase-out of coal combustion, there is a marked decrease in the concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5), with some regions experiencing a reduction of exceeding 50%. There is no significant change in global ozone (O3) concentration. There are decreasing AOD and positive radiative fluxes globally in the short term, though the cloud contributes minor negative radiative fluxes. The global air temperature may increase by approximately (0.02 ± 0.15) ?C on average with regional and seasonal variations, and the precipitation may potentially increase by approximately (2.7 ± 40.6) mm yr?? 1 globally and over 20% in equatorial regions in the short term. But combined with the decreasing trend of cloud water content in the Northern Hemisphere, it indicates a potential increase in the extremity of precipitation events. This study provides references for global control of air pollution, mitigation strategies of climate change, and transformation of energy structures under the objective of “carbon neutrality”, such as focusing on the negative climate impacts of exacerbating regional warming and increasing extreme precipitation resulting from the rapid reduction of aerosols in the short term.
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The combustion of coal accounts for a about 1/3 of anthropogenic CO2 emissions.
So eliminating the 1/3 of anthropogenic CO2 emissions that come from coal by 2055 will have no significant impact on the temperature increase in 2055.
From ChatGPT: In short: Coal CCS is technically feasible but generally economically unattractive, especially for existing plants. New plants with CCS might make sense only in regions with low-cost storage and strong carbon pricing.
And since we should plan on coal being phased out over the next 30 years, there appears to be no case for coal CCS.
Regarding CCS for natural gas (from ChatGPT):
Summary Table: Best-Case Technical CCS Potential for NG (GtCO₂/yr)
Sector | Best-case GtCO₂/yr |
NG processing | 0.8 |
Blue hydrogen | 0.7 |
LNG plants | 0.1 |
GTL / Chemicals | 0.4 |
Gas-fired power | 2.5 |
Total (technical) | 4.5 GtCO₂/yr |
Technically feasible, but economically viable total is probably closer to 1–2 GtCO₂/yr, mostly from NG processing, blue hydrogen, and chemical plants.
So for all practical purposes, using CCS to mitigate emissions can be ignored when forecasting the future temperature increase.
Bruce Parker