Collision Course Breakthrough conclusion (David Spratt, Dec 24) / My radiative forcings viz now publicly accessible

[Clive Elsworth]

All

 

1. See attached the conclusion section of Collision Course PDF, converted into a more printable/readable PDF.

 

2. You might appreciate my now publicly available (and easy to use) interactive visualization of radiative forcings (global warming and cooling influences) from Forster et al, that are published in IPCC reports: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiOTE5YWI5ODQtNGVlMS00NDMwLTg1ZGYtZjRiMDc3YmI3OTc4IiwidCI6IjZlY2YzYTJkLTE4ZDMtNDdlNi1hYzZiLTFjNTIwMGE3ZjhmOSIsImMiOjh9

 

p1 of 6 gives the simplest overview, also pasted below.

 

The error bars on p2 and p3 of 6 are my inferred estimates, based on a small number of figures in Forster’s 2023 paper. (Forster et al, 2023: Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/15/2295/2023/essd-15-2295-2023.html)

 

Clive

 

 

 

From: Guy Huntington <g...@hvl.net>
Sent: 12 October 2025 16:06
To: Clive Elsworth <cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk>; 'Oeste' <oe...@gm-ingenieurbuero.com>; 'Paul Stansell' <paulst...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'Alan Gadian' <ala...@gmail.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; 'HERMAN GYR' <hg...@mac.com>
Subject: FW: Rapid climate change & outside the box strategies aimed at Switzerland, EU, & Canada

 

Hi All,

This email went to what I call in my head as the “heavy hitters” in climate change science.  I suggest you folks skim the attached Dec 2024 paper written by David Spratt, “Collision Course”. 

 

Guy

 

[PR CARTER]

Great concept

Thanks

Peter C

---

From: "Clive Elsworth" <Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk>
To: "healthy-planet-action-coalition" <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Monday, October 13, 2025 4:23:49 AM
Subject: [HPAC] Collision Course Breakthrough conclusion (David Spratt, Dec 24) / My radiative forcings viz now publicly accessible

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Director Climate Emergency Institute
IPCC expert reviewer
Co-author2018 Unprecedented Crime: Climate Science Denial and Game Changers for Survival

[John Nissen]

It's not so much a collision course as "full throttle towards the precipice without brakes let alone a reverse gear".

1. Full throttle means the accelerated global warming till net zero is reached.  CO2 emissions reduction (taking foot off the throttle) reduces the acceleration, but no more than this: it cannot halt global warming let alone bring down temperatures as required.  

2. The precipice represents irreversible descent into catastrophic climate change and sea level rise.  The tipping elements of most immediate concern are in the Arctic. 

3. Some breaking is available through CDR (and reduction of methane emissions).  However SAI, ramped up to scale as quickly as possible, has the best and only real prospect of avoiding tipping over the precipice into inevitable catastrophe.    

4. SAI also offers the possibility to reverse the direction of travel, and, together with certain beneficial CDR techniques, return the planet to a safe, sustainable, biodiverse and productive state.

Cheers, John

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/1221307419.49467243.1760589668146.JavaMail.zimbra%40shaw.ca.

[Clive Elsworth]

John

 

Don’t forget, Prof Alan Gadian said “MCB done to extreme could cause another ice age.” We have calculated the same for several thousand emission points spread mainly throughout the tropical and subtropical ocean.

 

Clive

[Tom Goreau]

Isn’t high temperature overshoot vastly more imminent than overcooling?

 

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[Douglas Grandt]

Clive, has Alan modeled MCB strategically placed only at the poles? Not broadly across all latitudes?

Doug G

Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)

On Oct 18, 2025, at 5:56 PM, Clive Elsworth <Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk> wrote:



<image001.png>

 

 

From: Guy Huntington <g...@hvl.net>
Sent: 12 October 2025 16:06
To: Clive Elsworth <cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk>; 'Oeste' <oe...@gm-ingenieurbuero.com>; 'Paul Stansell' <paulst...@gmail.com>
Cc: 'Alan Gadian' <ala...@gmail.com>; Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>; 'HERMAN GYR' <hg...@mac.com>
Subject: FW: Rapid climate change & outside the box strategies aimed at Switzerland, EU, & Canada

 

Hi All,

This email went to what I call in my head as the “heavy hitters” in climate change science.  I suggest you folks skim the attached Dec 2024 paper written by David Spratt, “Collision Course”. 

 

 

 

 

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--

Director Climate Emergency Institute
IPCC expert reviewer
Co-author2018 Unprecedented Crime: Climate Science Denial and Game Changers for Survival

 

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[Clive Elsworth]

Doug

 

I don’t know all the modelling Alan Gadian has done, but just found this unusually accessible 2012 open access paper by John Latham, Alan Gadian, Jim Fournier, Ben Parkes, Peter Wadhams and Jack Chen: Marine cloud brightening: regional applications https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2014.0053

 

Like most MCB papers it assumes brightening of mainly the large stratocumulus cloud decks, which tend to be off the West coasts of N America, S America, Southern Africa, and Australia.

 

They say a lot about the resulting cooling effects on the Arctic and Antarctic, but also say towards the end:

 

By contrast, there may, hypothetically, be a secondary approach to reducing SSTs in the Arctic, which might be more similar to localized applications. Ocean clouds in various regions that are in closer proximity to the Arctic and located upstream on prevailing currents could theoretically be seeded to reduce SSTs in the Arctic. 

 

It also describes meridional heat flux (natural heat flow from tropics to poles) which often gets forgotten by people like us.

 

Clive

 

P.S. I’ve now made the chart below the default opening page on my interactive radiative forcing visualizations, which should be more understandable by the public. (Radiative forcing means warming and cooling influences.)

Effective Rad Forcing Graph Multi CSV Version - Power BI

 

People who don’t like MCB should be aware that without the ‘accidental’ cloud and aerosol cooling done by humans since 1850 the climate would already be a LOT worse.

 

The charts will be available online for at least another 24 days because Microsoft has extended my free trial again.

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/DB58C2BA-AA30-4B78-9E5B-7CEE88735864%40mac.com.

[Douglas Grandt]

Thanks, Clive,

A quick read of the 2014 paper* gives me the impression that done even “to extreme” in the polar regions alone (if that is physically possible) MCB could cool the Arctic and Antarctic without the fear of (to quote Alan):

“MCB done to extreme could cause another ice age.”

Is that a reasonable interpretation?

Also, what I’m driving at is: are there results of modeling that suggest a balanced Arctic and Antarctic strategy to restore pre-1978 (or actually Holocene) mass, thickness and extent theoretically does not adversely impact the ITCZ and monsoons, etc. while cooling the global atmosphere & ocean?

If that’s the case, an initial testing and staged deployment at the poles only, followed by targeted expansion elsewhere might be a prudent and publicly/politically acceptable strategy, no?

Cheers,

Doug

* Marine cloud brightening: regional applications 

Published:28 December 2014

https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0053

Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)

On Oct 19, 2025, at 4:09 AM, Clive Elsworth <Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk> wrote:



Doug

 

I don’t know all the modelling Alan Gadian has done, but just found this unusually accessible 2012 open access paper by John Latham, Alan Gadian, Jim Fournier, Ben Parkes, Peter Wadhams and Jack Chen: Marine cloud brightening: regional applications https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/full/10.1098/rsta.2014.0053

 

Like most MCB papers it assumes brightening of mainly the large stratocumulus cloud decks, which tend to be off the West coasts of N America, S America, Southern Africa, and Australia.

 

They say a lot about the resulting cooling effects on the Arctic and Antarctic, but also say towards the end:

 

By contrast, there may, hypothetically, be a secondary approach to reducing SSTs in the Arctic, which might be more similar to localized applications. Ocean clouds in various regions that are in closer proximity to the Arctic and located upstream on prevailing currents could theoretically be seeded to reduce SSTs in the Arctic. 

 

It also describes meridional heat flux (natural heat flow from tropics to poles) which often gets forgotten by people like us.

 

Clive

 

P.S. I’ve now made the chart below the default opening page on my interactive radiative forcing visualizations, which should be more understandable by the public. (Radiative forcing means warming and cooling influences.)

<image001.png>

[Clive Elsworth]

Doug

 

Unfortunately, I’m not sufficiently knowledgeable to answer that, which would be one for Alan Gadian himself. But when I asked Prof Jim Haywood (long ago) about a polar cooling intervention he replied to the effect that a more latitudinally distributed intervention made more sense.

 

I don’t think anyone wants another ice age, so MCB wouldn’t be done to extreme. Alan only says that so people can understand that MCB has the capacity to offset current greenhouse gas warming.

 

I assume the same could be said for SAI.

 

Clive

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[Douglas Grandt]

Apologies, Clive 

Apparently, I misinterpreted the following statement, which begged the polar regional MCB question:

Don’t forget, Prof Alan Gadian said “MCB done to extreme could cause another ice age.” We have calculated the same for several thousand emission points spread mainly throughout the tropical and subtropical ocean.

Best,

Doug

Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)

[Tom Goreau]

If you don’t want an Ice Age, just stop at the right time.

 

The relaxation time for SAI to disperse back down to background is very short (days to weeks in troposphere, years in the stratosphere), compared to centuries to thousands of years for CO2.

 

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/225D82A3-518E-4063-AEDE-B199ED902835%40mac.com.

[rob de laet]

I think Tom is right about that.  

I hope and guess we all agree that (Antropogenic) SRM approaches like MCB are short-term emergency measures. Relying on them as more than a temporary solution is an act of human hubris, which, if not communicated well (just as DAC and BECCS did), will divert attention and billions of dollars to strategic, long term solutions.  I propose that antropogenic SRM should be accompanied with a warning label: temporary fix with limited durability, which needs to be accompanied by a far more strategic path of NSRM (Natural Solar Radiation Management): restoring nature’s own climate regulation system while phasing out fossil fuels. 

To me, those together are the only durable path to reduce warming and stabilize the Earth system. Focusing on strategic regeneration of the biosphere for NSRM is by far our greatest chance to avoid wholesale collapse of human societies. It is the most important investment in civilizational risk management, while ASRM can buy us some time at best. 

Kind regards, 

Rob de Laet 

Project Lead Cooling the Climate

Member of the EcoRestoration Alliance

Fellow of Global Evergreening Alliance

Fellow fo the Schumacher Institute

Co-founder of Senang Eco Services

WhatsApp: +55 71 992617846

To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/BY3PR13MB4994DDEB9263751B286B7A3BDDF4A%40BY3PR13MB4994.namprd13.prod.outlook.com.

[Tom Goreau]

You don’t have to chill out with SAI forever: you’d be a fool to overcool!

 

The same time frame is also true of water vapor enhancement, whether by tree transpiration or by mystifying vaporizers, because it falls as rain in days (& why CO2, lasting millennia, drives water feedback more than the reverse), but the lesson is different:

 

Evapotranspiration cooling must continue forever, or there will be real termination shock!

 

SAI can only be a temporary emergency measure. A tolerable climate REQUIRES more Green Biomass, and regenerating forest transpiration, for any livable long term solution.

 

My Brazilian student and I in 1984 found Amazonian clearcuts had up to 12 C hotter air and soil temperatures than adjacent virgin jungle. Transpiration termination shock is why deforested areas immediately become unbearably hot, as described by the first Portuguese settlers who stole Indigenous lands and wiped out Brazilian Mata Atlantica coastal forests for sugar cane. More biodiverse than Amazonian forests because of exceptional endemism, about 1% survived on inaccessible mountain peaks. We climbed them by pulling ourselves up roots hanging down to measure CO2, CH4, and N2O soil-atmosphere fluxes, which we found as high as intact Amazonian rain forests near Manaus.

 

Rob, as you and many others have shown over and over again, reforesting barren baked out soils quickly makes them cooler again, and dried out rivers spring back to life!

 

Thanks from the Earth, ground up!

 

Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance

Chief Scientist, Biorock Technology Inc., Blue Regeneration SL

Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK

37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139

gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Phone: (1) 857-523-0807 (leave message)

 

Books:

Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase

https://www.routledge.com/Geotherapy-Innovative-Methods-of-Soil-Fertility-Restoration-Carbon-Sequestration-and-Reversing-CO2-Increase/Goreau-Larson-Campe/p/book/9781466595392

 

Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration

https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/oa-edit/10.1201/b14314/innovative-methods-marine-ecosystem-restoration-robert-kent-trench-thomas-goreau

 

On the Nature of Things: The Scientific Photography of Fritz Goro

 

Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change

 

No one can change the past, everybody can change the future

 

It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think

 

Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away

 

“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer

 

“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips

 

“It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies” Noam Chomsky

[John Nissen]

Hi Clive,

Yes, cloud seeding could help cool the Arctic in winter when clouds only have a warming effect. Over the GIS the snow would add mass as well as cooling the surface and helping to freeze over melt pools. Has anyone investigated this?

David, of course it's a collision course, but what has to be done to avert disaster? Schellnuber has written against SRM and his "solution" with emissions reduction simply won't work.

My analogy allows for CDR and SRM/SAI to be put into perspective. I hope you can find it useful for Code Red, David, and for NOAC, Clive. 

We need to get the message out to the world. It's apolitical and can be appreciated equally by left and right, by communists and capitalists. It is especially relevant for anyone with grandchildren who will inevitably suffer the consequences of our failure to face up to the current situation and apply emergency cooling - the reverse gear!

Cheers John 

PS I have proved to my own satisfaction that MCB has insufficient cooling power for what is needed for lowering Arctic and global temperatures. SAI not only has scalability but is available for the rapid deployment and ramp up as so urgently required to reduce the very significant risk of catastrophe to an absolute minimum.