PRAG meeting to discuss a group submission on EU Arctic policy: Monday 9th March, 9 pm UK time

[John Nissen]

Hi everyone,

Note that 9 pm UK time is 5 pm EDT and 2 pm PST, as clocks have changed in the US, but not yet in the UK.  It will be 8 am AEDT.  All are welcome.  The main agenda item is approval of text for submission to the EU on behalf of PRAG.  But personal submissions are encouraged.

I am currently trying to restructure our submission to have a paragraph or two on each of the four tipping points.  But this is what Claude has produced so far, working on my original text:

The EU needs a fundamental rethink of its Arctic policy. The Arctic is the primary driver of the immediate climate crisis and the coming sea level crisis, yet current policy prioritises exploitation over protection. This is a strategic failure of historic proportions — and the window to act is closing fast.

The paleo record is unambiguous: at the end of the Younger Dryas, 11,700 years ago, Arctic temperatures leapt 7–10°C over a few decades. Sea levels rose 20 metres in 400 years. Megatsunamis followed the collapse of the Hudson Bay ice dome.  Global climate was transformed within a human lifetime. What is now unfolding is human-driven, faster, and starting from a higher base temperature — with 8 billion people in the path of consequences our ancestors never faced.

Since 1980, the Arctic has warmed at four times the global rate, now tracking at 0.35°C per decade — meaning 2°C globally by 2040 and 4°C by 2100, with 8°C and 16°C respectively in the Arctic. The Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough ice to raise sea levels by at least 7 metres. A partial collapse could begin without warning, triggering megatsunamis and sudden irreversible sea level rise, and promoting the collapse of already-critical Antarctic glaciers. A 2.5 metre sea level rise this century is plausible; a significantly greater rise cannot be ruled out.

Four interlocking tipping processes are accelerating, each capable of passing a point of no return. Glacier discharge is raising sea levels now. Thawing permafrost is releasing methane — far more potent than CO₂ — directly amplifying warming. A narrowing Arctic-to-tropics temperature gradient is destabilising the polar jet stream, locking it into blocking patterns that produce the stuck weather now battering Europe: prolonged droughts, deadly heatwaves, and catastrophic floods. And the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weakening — its collapse, now considered possible within decades, would permanently alter European weather and devastate continental economies. These processes cascade. Greenland's partial collapse could directly trigger AMOC failure. Once any tipping point is crossed, reversal is impossible. Inaction is not a neutral choice — it is a choice for irreversible systemic collapse.

Every EU coastal state faces inundation from converging sea level rise, storm surges, and extreme precipitation. Coastal defence infrastructure scaled to 2.5 metres or more of sea level rise would be staggering in cost and ultimately futile.  Cooling through Stratospheric Aerosol Injection would cost a fraction of that — while treating the cause, not the symptom.

Meanwhile, major powers are treating the Arctic meltdown as a commercial opportunity, planning shipping routes and resource extraction.  This is folly.  The EU must fight to protect the Arctic from meltdown.

The EU has the scientific capacity and moral authority to lead global Arctic protection through targeted cooling interventions and binding international protections. The alternative — incremental adaptation to accelerating catastrophe — will cost incomparably more, in money and in lives.

The time for cautious language has passed.  The EU must change its policy towards the Arctic and strongly advocate for emergency deployment of cooling intervention at scale to protect the Arctic from catastrophic meltdown.

The only words I've changed are the ones underlined.  Perhaps it doesn't need restructuring - what do you think?

Cheers, John

[Douglas Grandt]

Topic: John's PRAG zoom Meeting

Monday, March 9
9:00 PM London
5;00 PM (EDT)
4;00 PM (CDT)
3;00 PM (MDT)
2;00 PM (PDT)

Tuesday, March 10
8:00 AM (AEDT)

Join Zoom Meeting
https://us05web.zoom.us/j/82944981576?pwd=QVuPR2h3YYZfqxjDiH55NJobbCEaPm.1

Meeting ID: 829 4498 1576
Passcode: 7f9mx9

Join instructions
https://us05web.zoom.us/meetings/82944981576/invitations?signature=PUeoB2xdrSQD2lou3fK40M9zknto_uQimL1beB88AtU

~~~~~~~~~~

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[Douglas Grandt]

John, Herb, Greg and JohnM,

Based on our zoom discussion, I have run the latest version already in Claude (having had your earlier email suggestions incorporated) with new instructions as I reccall.

Attached is a PDF of the output from Claude.

I have made no attempt to trim the character count from the unconstrained 6,946 (including spaces) to the EU Commission maximum 4,000.

That effort can be done manually or using Claude once we have agreed that the attached text addresses the essence of our zoom deliberation.

Cheers,

Doug

[John Nissen]

Hi all,

We had thought-provoking discussions about how best to present the case for the urgent application of SAI to cool the Arctic and about what exactly we should ask the EU Arctic policy committee to do in this emergency.  The draft, as posted yesterday, falls short on both accounts, saying little about SAI and asking little specifically about what the policy committee should do.   We also agreed that the credibility of our submission must be boosted by referring to names.  Here is some text, inspired by the meeting.

Peter Wadhams and John Nissen have been concerned about protecting the Arctic and pointed out the need for direct cooling to a UK government committee in 2012.  The need for cooling has become ever more urgent as the Arctic warming and melting continues unabated and at least four tipping processes could now be approaching a point of no return. The effect of these processes is already being felt: weather extremes are becoming more extreme; permafrost is thawing, the AMOC is slowing, and the Greenland Ice Sheet is showing signs of disintegration, threatening metres of sea level rise.  This is an unprecedented crisis for humanity; the time for cooling action is now.  

A huge amount of cooling power will be needed to bring down the Arctic temperature and defuse the situation by halting and reversing these processes.  Emissions reduction, even with aggressive CO2 drawdown, simply cannot provide the cooling power required.  Fortunately research has been done by Wake Smith and Doug MacMartin that shows that the temperature could be lowered using Stratospheric Aerosol Injection at reasonable cost.  They have established that, with careful management, SAI could be deployed reasonably safely, producing relatively small and manageable side effects. 

The EU committee should approach the EU parliament to make a resolution about protecting the peoples of the Arctic and Europe by cooling the Arctic, with the promotion of SAI and preparation for testing it. Time is running out to defuse the crisis.

Cheers, John

[greenkni...@gmail.com]

It is important to set before decision makers the various options for addressing the climate crisis. These include accelerated replacement of fossil fuels, accelerated replacement of agricultural policies and practices that promote methane, emissions, accelerated greenhouse gas removal, and related methods.

It is also essential that we assess the risks and benefits of various means of solar radiation mitigation. That means not focusing only on stratospheric atmospheric injection, but also on other means of addressing that particular problem.

Thank you very much all here involved in providing this forum for a very helpful discussion.

John Fitzgerald

John M. Fitzgerald

73 Bear Head Rd.

Sedgwick, ME 04676

202-288-0231

On Mar 9, 2026, at 7:32 PM, 'Douglas Grandt' via Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> wrote:

John, Herb, Greg and JohnM,

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<EU Arctic Policy Update – Request for Feedback (J. Nissen) CLAUDE 5345 chracters (long AMOC) ZOOM input.pdf>

On Mar 8, 2026, at 8:34 PM, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote:

Hi everyone,

Note that 9 pm UK time is 5 pm EDT and 2 pm PST, as clocks have changed in the US, but not yet in the UK.  It will be 8 am AEDT.  All are welcome.  The main agenda item is approval of text for submission to the EU on behalf of PRAG.  But personal submissions are encouraged.

I am currently trying to restructure our submission to have a paragraph or two on each of the four tipping points.  But this is what Claude has produced so far, working on my original text:

The EU needs a fundamental rethink of its Arctic policy. The Arctic is the primary driver of the immediate climate crisis and the coming sea level crisis, yet current policy prioritises exploitation over protection. This is a strategic failure of historic proportions — and the window to act is closing fast.

The paleo record is unambiguous: at the end of the Younger Dryas, 11,700 years ago, Arctic temperatures leapt 7–10°C over a few decades. Sea levels rose 20 metres in 400 years. Megatsunamis followed the collapse of the Hudson Bay ice dome.  Global climate was transformed within a human lifetime. What is now unfolding is human-driven, faster, and starting from a higher base temperature — with 8 billion people in the path of consequences our ancestors never faced.

Since 1980, the Arctic has warmed at four times the global rate, now tracking at 0.35°C per decade — meaning 2°C globally by 2040 and 4°C by 2100, with 8°C and 16°C respectively in the Arctic. The Greenland Ice Sheet holds enough ice to raise sea levels by at least 7 metres. A partial collapse could begin without warning, triggering megatsunamis and sudden irreversible sea level rise, and promoting the collapse of already-critical Antarctic glaciers. A 2.5 metre sea level rise this century is plausible; a significantly greater rise cannot be ruled out.

Four interlocking tipping processes are accelerating, each capable of passing a point of no return. Glacier discharge is raising sea levels now. Thawing permafrost is releasing methane — far more potent than CO₂ — directly amplifying warming. A narrowing Arctic-to-tropics temperature gradient is destabilising the polar jet stream, locking it into blocking patterns that produce the stuck weather now battering Europe: prolonged droughts, deadly heatwaves, and catastrophic floods. And the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is weakening — its collapse, now considered possible within decades, would permanently alter European weather and devastate continental economies. These processes cascade. Greenland's partial collapse could directly trigger AMOC failure. Once any tipping point is crossed, reversal is impossible. Inaction is not a neutral choice — it is a choice for irreversible systemic collapse.

Every EU coastal state faces inundation from converging sea level rise, storm surges, and extreme precipitation. Coastal defence infrastructure scaled to 2.5 metres or more of sea level rise would be staggering in cost and ultimately futile.  Cooling through Stratospheric Aerosol Injection would cost a fraction of that — while treating the cause, not the symptom.

Meanwhile, major powers are treating the Arctic meltdown as a commercial opportunity, planning shipping routes and resource extraction.  This is folly.  The EU must fight to protect the Arctic from meltdown.

The EU has the scientific capacity and moral authority to lead global Arctic protection through targeted cooling interventions and binding international protections. The alternative — incremental adaptation to accelerating catastrophe — will cost incomparably more, in money and in lives.

The time for cautious language has passed.  The EU must change its policy towards the Arctic and strongly advocate for emergency deployment of cooling intervention at scale to protect the Arctic from catastrophic meltdown.

The only words I've changed are the ones underlined.  Perhaps it doesn't need restructuring - what do you think?

Cheers, John

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[Douglas Grandt]

John,

Perhaps this type of transmittal letter/note could be submitted within the <4,000 character window … short and poignant … and attach the longer  3-page “paper” (which now stands at 6,946 including spaces) as a PDF file which is subject to a 5MB size limit.

Doug

BTW, Anton Keskinen is now Head of Strategy OA and Ellen Haaslahti is now Executive Director, so I added cc: Ellen 

Sent from my iPhone (audio texting)

On Mar 9, 2026, at 7:45 PM, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote:



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