Unprecedented Warming Acceleration Effects Ongoing

[Bruce Melton -- Austin, Texas]

It's happening. Warming acceleration is moving into effects. We are still having the coldest winter in memory in the Northeast, while Earth bakes in its second warmest year ever, only slightly behind 2023 and 2024. Austin is so dry it is about to blow away. The summer heat dome over the U.S. is fading, but scheduled to return. The West has experienced one of, if not the worst snow droughts ever recorded. Below are a few more signs of this abrupt change that have come across my desk or I have interpreted. The governor of Colorado and Colorado Forest Service warn that because of long-term drought, the ponderosa pine population of the Front Range will be wiped out by the native pine beetle in the next several years in the Denver metro region and beyond, and the attack is not limited to the Front Range. 

Please, add your own observations.

MeltOn

Nahel Belgherze - Weather Extremes, Bsky Southwestern Daily Max 5C Anomaly 

The Bergstrom weather station in Austin has had a total of 6.5 inches of rain back to the beginning of August. Normal is 22.01 inches. 

Austin's February average temperature was 6 degrees warmer than normal and March so far is 8 degrees warmer.

Denver broke its daily high temperature record by 14 degrees at 89. The previous of 75 was from 1956, 1988 and 2012.

The "normals" that weather people talk about us being above, are 3 to 4 degrees F warmer than in our old climate (in Austin at least), meaning that February and March were 9 and 11 degrees warmer than the real average before climate warming, not 6 and 8 degrees like the NWS says. This is because the NWS normals are skewed by their practice of calculating them based on 30-year averages. They update these "normals" every 10 years, so today the "normals" weather persons talk about are the averages from 1991 to 2020. These are about 3 degrees warmer than in our old climate based on the NWS 30-year averages from 1941 to 1970. There was also warming above our old climate in 1941 to 1970 too; about 0.36 F on average globally.

The average high temperatures for Austin for February and March were both ten degrees above normal, or 13 degrees above the real normal from our old climate.

This significantly unprecedented heat dome is occurring under the cooling influence of a weak La Nina.

A moderate to strong El Nino is expected to rapidly develop by mid-summer, adding 0.2 to 0.3 degrees C +/- to the current average global temperature where, plausible another 2 degrees F over land in places.

Another from Nahel Belgherze - Japan 2025 JJA anomaly 

--
Bruce Melton PE
Director, Climate Change Now Initiative, 501c3
President, Melton Engineering Services Austin
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