Metta W Spencer
robert...@gmail.com
Hi Metta and HPAC members
I have been invited to a screening of Plan C for Civilisation as part of the London Climate Week and unfortunately it clashes with this session. However, I have a question I'd like to put relating to Seba's vision. It would great if someone could ask this in my absence.
My understanding is that in relation to the replacement of the fossil fuel infrastructure with a renewables powered one, Seba reconciles the materials resource limitations that have been highlighted by geologists such as Michaux, by arguing that future demand for energy will be significantly lower than it is today, and there being more than sufficient materials available for this lower demand. This demand reduction is not simply the elimination of the energy cost of transforming fossil fuels into usable energy, but is also due to substantial and widespread behavioural changes that will not only allow current living standards to be maintained, but also provide a secure basis for continuing economic growth. Could we confirm that that understanding is broadly correct and consider both the nature and extent of these implied behaviour changes and their quantitative impact on energy consumption. Since global warming will continue increasing while we're adapting to these new behaviours, we need some idea of their timing and expectations for the additional amount of CO2 that will be emitted before fossil fuels are largely retired. If we are in a two-horse race in which the runners are Seba's bright new future and catastrophic climate change, which is the hare and which the tortoise (bearing in mind that, contrary to Aesop, in this race neither will be taking a nap along the way)?
It's very easy to be seduced by all the fascinating detail that academics so love, but most of that is totally peripheral to the two big questions which are simply a) what has to be done to avert a widespread global warming induced societal and ecosystem catastrophe; and b) how do we make that a plausible course of action?
RobertC
Hi,I’m eager to see you as a participant in our upcoming Economics Inquiry. It begins this Wednesday, June 24, at 4 pm (Eastern time) for one hour — https://zoom.us/j/9108970203 and will meet every Webnesday at that time for five consecutive weeks. See the program here.
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--If a friend of yours wants to join, it’s still open. To register, see our website https://tosavetheworld.ca and click on the bar advertising it.Here’s the program.
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--WarmlyMettaPS I’m adding a review of the Stellar book that we will discuss during the first meeting, along with other theories about economic growth and degrowth.
Thursday 27 March 2025
One of the major things that is missing from modern society, and possibly the cause of the plight we find ourselves, both environmentally and politically, is the lack of a compelling and positive vision for the future. This absence is particularly notable in the current geo-political environment. This new book provides such a vision for a positive global future based on abundant and cheap energy from solar, wind and batteries. It is very different, however, to other books on energy futures.
The book starts with a historical survey that sets out the impacts of the transition from a hunter gather society to an agricultural society. At that point we changed to an extractive model of the world which over generations has shaped our mentality, our laws, our institutions and even our bodies. It is that extractive model that is the root cause of many of our problems.
The argument in the book is that we will soon have cheap, effectively free, and abundant energy from solar, wind and batteries – a ‘stellar’ energy system that doesn’t need extractive inputs to operate. The emergence of a stellar energy system produces results that cannot be predicted from the sum of the parts – what the authors call ‘radiance’ which is a super abundance, i.e. over supply, of energy that will enable us to restore the damage caused by the extractive economy on a massive scale. With abundant clean energy anything become possible.
Moving beyond the energy system itself the book looks at the effects of this super abundance on various systems including food production, water and transport, as well as issues of ownership and the wider economy and politics. The need for systems thinking is stressed throughout. The effects of embedding stellar technologies into an extractive system, which is where much of the energy system is now, is described as a chimera. The authors argue that this approach leaves us in danger of ‘snatching defeat from the jaws of victory’. The book finishes with eight guiding principles for the journey towards a stellar economy.
This book is a highly recommended tour de force based on real ‘outside the box’ thinking. As the basis of a positive vision of the future it deserves a wide audience amongst energy professionals, economists, policy makers, and indeed anyone interested in building a better future for the world. My optimist side believes in this vision, my realist side remembers the quote from Arthur C. Clarke, ‘we tend to over-estimate what we can achieve in the short-term, and under-estimate what we can achieve in the long-term’. My practicality says, ‘what can we do today to build this future?’.
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Robert Chris
Hi Metta
A further thought.
The focus of this meeting seems to be on the contribution that can be made by economics and in particular consideration of how to deliver 'economic sustainability'. Is that the novel idea that 'enough' might be enough, and that 'more' is to be no more?
It would be helpful to understand the role of economics in balancing the competing pressures from global warming and the quest for sustainability. The trends of both these are currently in the wrong direction. Specifically what can economics do to reverse either or both of these trends? The link that must be established is the one between policy and significant and rapid physical change in the climate system.
Note that policy only impacts the physical world when translated into action. In your discussion please endeavour to forge this link.
And if you can't do so with confidence as to effective speed and scale, consider what the fall back position is.
Wish I was able to join you!
Robert
PR CARTER
To: "Metta W Spencer" <mspe...@web.net>, "healthy-planet-action-coalition" <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Sent: Monday, June 22, 2026 10:30:00 AM
Subject: Re: [HPAC]
IPCC expert reviewer
Co-author2018 Unprecedented Crime: Climate Science Denial and Game Changers for Survival