Reminder: The next NOAC meeting is tomorrow: Monday 13th May (Aus: Tue 14th, 6am AEST)
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Sometimes talking is more productive than writing. Participants often resolve disagreements in our NOAC meetings.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest something for the agenda. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- make an announcement,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 13th May (Aus: Tue 14th, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Meeting ID: 871 0592 4845
Passcode: 707770
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Last Meeting:
Leeds Prof of Meteorology Alan Gadian presented:
Is the planet being cooked?
Marine Cloud Brightening - Part 2 (HPAC)
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlFHV6mBXwQ&t=116s
Feel free to share that link with anyone. The recording is on YouTube with Public Visibility.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
Jeff HALEY Reflective Earth 6:36 AM
Where can I get a link to learn details of each proposed hardware design?
Paul Stansell 6:38 AM
In this recent newsletter James Hansen says "we use the geographical distribution (global map) of ASR to infer that the forcing due to decreased ship aerosols is at least ~0.5 W/m2".
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailing...
Tom Goreau joined as a guest
Jeff Suchon left
Jamie Taylor joined as a guest
John Macdonald 6:55 AM
The human body increases more at the surface and is more acutely felt than in the deep tissues, with increasing temperature.
Karl Danz left
suds jain left
Richard Dietrich left
You 7:00 AM
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...
Gregory Slater 7:02 AM
Agree with Robert about the (uninformed but reflexive) hostility and contempt of the WaPost comments...
Ron Baiman 7:02 AM
For more on Robert's comments: https://essopenarchive.org/users/6732...
alangadian 7:03 AM
The biggest factor that terrifies me is the refusal to accept that the positive feedback caused by H20 is ignored totally
Ron Baiman to You (Direct Message) 7:04 AM
Maybe go right to Armand?
Gregory Slater 7:06 AM
It ironically seems that everyone in favor of immediate action of one form or another is hoping for a catastrophe (Dick Cheney's hope for a "Pearl Harbor event") - to get permission...
Richard Dietrich joined as a guest
Clive Elsworth 7:21 AM
It's easy to make salt nanoparticles by mixing appropriate gases in the air. For example, ammonium chloride (a food additive) is formed from HCl and NH3 (ammonia) Both substances already exist in the natural environment.
John Macdonald 7:24 AM
As part of my boiling water experiment, I am looking at the drying effect of droplets from the heat in a ship’s flue.
Aria Mckenna 7:08 AM
Is dimming also related to ghgs??
You 7:10 AM
Yes, indirectly. GHGs cause warming which melts ice and snow, reducing albedo and dimming the Earth.
Aria Mckenna 7:12 AM
So important not to discount the source of the dimming-
You 7:13 AM
The issue is that addressing GHGs is much slower than addressing dimming directly
Aria Mckenna 7:23 AM
But if we ignore the reason we are dimming, we will seem to be aligning ourselves with the fossil fuel industrial complex, and create messaging fodder for the other side. We would alienate environmentalists, and fail in our attempt to create powerful allies in the community.
Jennifer Welchman 7:28 AM
The challenge is to get more in that community to understand that you can tackle a problem in more than one way at once.
Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands left
Aria Mckenna 7:33 AM
It's important to acknowledge all sides. We need it all. Not one vs the other..
Mannajo Greene 7:34 AM
Andy Revkin calls it "narrative capture"
Bru Pearce left
Ron Baiman left
Tom Goreau left
Win Rampen 7:37 AM
is there a rebrightening meeting tomorrow?
You 7:37 AM
Yes, we meet every week.
Jonathan Cole 7:37 AM
We need a subset of the scientist present to take the brunt of the controversy for being direct about the failure of CO2 reduction as the current prime target of 99 percent of climate salvage funding. Who's in?
Franz Dietrich Oeste left
Jennifer Welchman 7:39 AM
Thanks indeed!
You 7:00 AM https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...
Gregory Slater 7:02 AM
Agree with Robert about the (uninformed but reflexive) hostility and contempt of the WaPost comments...
Ron Baiman 7:02 AM
For more on Robert's comments: https://essopenarchive.org/users/6732...
alangadian 7:03 AM
The biggest factor that terrifies me is the refusal to accept that the positive feedback caused by H20 is ignored totally
Ron Baiman to You (Direct Message) 7:04 AM
Maybe go right to Armand?
Gregory Slater 7:06 AM
It ironically seems that everyone in favor of immediate action of one form or another is hoping for a catastrophe (Dick Cheney's hope for a "Pearl Harbor event") - to get permission...
Richard Dietrich joined as a guest
Clive Elsworth 7:21 AM
It's easy to make salt nanoparticles by mixing appropriate gases in the air. For example, ammonium chloride (a food additive) is formed from HCl and NH3 (ammonia) Both substances already exist in the natural environment.
John Macdonald 7:24 AM
As part of my boiling water experiment, I am looking at the drying effect of droplets from the heat in a ship’s flue.
Aria Mckenna 7:08 AM
Is dimming also related to ghgs??
You 7:10 AM
Yes, indirectly. GHGs cause warming which melts ice and snow, reducing albedo and dimming the Earth.
Aria Mckenna 7:12 AM
So important not to discount the source of the dimming-
You 7:13 AM
The issue is that addressing GHGs is much slower than addressing dimming directly
Aria Mckenna 7:23 AM
But if we ignore the reason we are dimming, we will seem to be aligning ourselves with the fossil fuel industrial complex, and create messaging fodder for the other side. We would alienate environmentalists, and fail in our attempt to create powerful allies in the community.
Jennifer Welchman 7:28 AM
The challenge is to get more in that community to understand that you can tackle a problem in more than one way at once.
Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands left
Aria Mckenna 7:33 AM
It's important to acknowledge all sides. We need it all. Not one vs the other..
Mannajo Greene 7:34 AM
Andy Revkin calls it "narrative capture"
Bru Pearce left
Ron Baiman left
Tom Goreau left
Win Rampen 7:37 AM
is there a rebrightening meeting tomorrow?
You 7:37 AM
Yes, we meet every week.
Jonathan Cole 7:37 AM
We need a subset of the scientist present to take the brunt of the controversy for being direct about the failure of CO2 reduction as the current prime target of 99 percent of climate salvage funding. Who's in?
Franz Dietrich Oeste left
Jennifer Welchman 7:39 AM
Thanks indeed!
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Sev – Coral bleaching
- Bezos announcement
David P – What is Mann’s problem with Hansen?
Manna Jo – Outreach to Consensus building institute – path to effective collaboration?
John N – Proposal for cloud thinning – how much cooling power is needed?
Clive – Mention Rebrighten – Stephen Salter tribute
Jon C – Misinformation points that need rebutting.
Recording: https://youtu.be/ovrvCJZIz9w?t=212
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Unsubscribe: Let me know, and I’ll take you off the HPAC google group.
Clive Elsworth
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Sometimes talking is more productive than writing. Participants often resolve disagreements in our NOAC meetings.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest something for the agenda. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- make an announcement,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is : Monday 27th May (Aus: Tue 28th, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Meeting ID: 871 0592 4845
Passcode: 707770
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Last Meeting:
Agenda
Greg – Gwyne Dyer’s book
John M – MCB study put on hold – Alameda
Greg – how much SO2 is needed for SAI to cool Earth by e.g. 0.1oC?
Sev – Theses e.g.:
- Mitigation – oil/gas good for future?? - if you don’t burn them,
- Sugars – don’t grow sugar beet – uses too much land. Instead get sugars from straw.
Robin – Nozzle Engineering and other MCB work for colleges etc.
Recording: https://youtu.be/Oi7LkZSTSJY?t=745
Feel free to share that link with anyone. The recording is on YouTube with Public Visibility.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
20:59:11 From read.ai meeting notes : Hugo added read.ai meeting notes to the meeting.
Read provides AI generated meeting summaries to make meetings more effective and efficient. View our Privacy Policy at https://www.read.ai/pp
Type "read stop" to disable, or "opt out" to delete meeting data.
21:28:25 From Bru Pearce : Independent market demand study
69% of the global population is willing to contribute 1% of their personal income to climate action.
(Good global government would be nice, but maybe the solution with the 69%, outside of government...)
Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action | Nature Climate Change
21:29:47 From Robin Collins : UNEA
21:30:10 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Moral hazards and solar radiation management: Evidence from a large-scale online experiment - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0272494424000616
21:30:35 From Robert Chris : Reflecting on Brian's comments about moral hazard. We should stop using this term. It is broadly misunderstood and abused, as Brian just did. Not caring about the future of the biosphere is not a moral hazard, it is just reckless. We should focus on the weak form of the precautionary principle - don't not do something that might help when faced with the prospect of a perilous future merely because it has not yet been scientifically proven. See UNFCCC Constitution that uses this form of precautionary principle. MH just confuses people and masks the underlying recklessness of the proposed action or lack of action.
21:31:17 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : A paradigm shift? African countries call for the non-use of solar geoengineering at UN Environment Assembly - https://journals.plos.org/climate/article?id=10.1371/journal.pclm.0000413
21:33:02 From Robin Collins : Avoiding geoengineering as a term can mean MCB or nothing. I don’t think we should distance from other options that might be needed later.
21:33:45 From Robin Collins : https://www.unep.org/environmentassembly/unea6
21:35:23 From Robert Tulip : Reacted to "A paradigm shift? Af..." with 👍
21:35:49 From John Macdonald : I think educated young people are more open minded to at least research MCB
21:37:09 From Robert Tulip : How aerosols brighten clouds — and cool the planet
269,535 views |
Sarah J. Doherty |
TED2024
• April 2024 https://www.ted.com/talks/sarah_j_doherty_how_aerosols_brighten_clouds_and_cool_the_planet
21:44:28 From Jonathan Cole : Slang Dictionary via Onelook: Geoengineering Loosely defined as the intentional large-scale manipulation of the global environment; planetary tinkering; a subset of terraforming or planetary engineering. Techniques proposed include sulfate cannons, space mirrors, and huge buckets of white paint.
In 1996 Thomas Schelling wrote, “’Geoengineering’ is a new term, still seeking a definition. It seems to imply something global, intentional, and unnatural….” Geoengineering is the last gasp of a dying civilization.
by ipsler.gonkler January 1, 2009
21:45:08 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Reacted to Reflecting on Brian'... with "👍"
21:45:48 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Replying to "Reflecting on Brian'..."
Good point Robert, I...
21:46:20 From Robert Tulip : Scenarios for modeling solar radiation modification
D. G. MacMartin et al
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.220223011
21:47:56 From Robin Collins : That link didn’t work. This one does:https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2202230119
21:48:59 From Robert Tulip : Replying to "Scenarios for modeli..."
typo - https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2202230119
21:51:11 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Replying to "Slang Dictionary via..."
Good points, Jonatha...
21:53:27 From Jonathan Cole : Wikipedia - climate engineering (or geoengineering) is an umbrella term for both carbon dioxide removal and solar radiation modification, when applied at a planetary scale. However, these two processes have very different characteristics. For this reason, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change no longer uses this overarching term. Carbon dioxide removal approaches are part of climate change mitigation. Solar radiation modification is reflecting some sunlight (solar radiation) back to space.[
22:00:19 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Replying to "Wikipedia - climate ..."
"No longer used by t...
22:02:17 From Robert Tulip : Replying to "Wikipedia - climate ..."
The IPCC doesn't use the term geoengineering because of political pressure from opponents. That is why the AR6 Summary for Policy Makers totally ignored it after promising to discuss it.
22:04:44 From Robin Collins : Please send us all proposals and specs, and contacts, so we can lay out a proposal for this project.
22:07:00 From Gregory Slater : To John M. - How much money is "serious money"?
22:11:45 From Robert Tulip : Replying to "To John M. - How muc..."
$20m is what Stephen Salter said is needed.
22:12:13 From Robin Collins : Replying to "To John M. - How muc..."
As prize money??
22:13:51 From Robert Tulip : Replying to "To John M. - How muc..."
For an MCB project comprising generation, modelling and advocacy
22:23:07 From Jonathan Cole : Classification-of-water-droplet-diameter.png (1050×624) (ikeuchi.eu)
22:27:47 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Robin Collins contact?
22:28:08 From Robert Tulip : Robert Chris - Almost all the mentions of geoengineering in AR6 WG1 are in citations of papers, with a couple explaining why they don't use the term.
22:28:54 From Robin Collins : Contact David and or Robin
22:29:01 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Reacted to Contact David and or... with "👍"
22:29:14 From Robert Chris : Replying to "Robert Chris - Almos..."
AR6 treatment of geoengineering was broadly derisory.
22:30:31 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Replying to "Please send us all p..."
Via what channel?
22:30:39 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Replying to "Please send us all p..."
Contact info?
22:31:41 From Robin Collins : Replying to "Please send us all p..."
da...@pricenet.ca and robi...@gmai.com
22:31:56 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Replying to "Please send us all p..."
Gmail?
22:32:32 From Robin Collins : Replying to "Please send us all p..."
Both emails there will work.
22:32:52 From Robert Tulip : Replying to "Please send us all p..."
Robin Collins robin.w...@gmail.com
22:32:59 From Robin Collins : Replying to "Please send us all p..."
That also works
22:33:08 From Robin Collins : Reacted to "That also works" with 😀
22:33:10 From Jonathan Cole : John Latham suggested that salt fragments from the evaporation of very small drops of sea water would be ideal condensation nuclei. He calculated the amount of water that would be needed to whiten clouds enough to offset the thermal effects since preindustrial times. He was surprised at how little, about 10 cubic metres a second, would do. It is the number of successful nucleations, not the mass of water that matters. From Stephen
22:33:22 From Jonathan Cole : his One Page...
22:34:25 From Jonathan Cole : The mass of the chemically created salt is not that much tons seemingly. Powders?
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Leeds Prof of Meteorology Alan Gadian presented:
Is the planet being cooked?
Marine Cloud Brightening - Part 2 (HPAC)
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KlFHV6mBXwQ&t=116s
On this occasion: Feel free to share this link anywhere, including on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Unsubscribe: Let me know, and I’ll take you off the HPAC google group.
Clive Elsworth
--
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Sev Clarke
H simmens
Sev Clarke
On 23 May 2024, at 3:00 AM, H simmens <hsim...@gmail.com> wrote:
Rebecca Bishop
On Thursday evening, Alameda released its findings: The experiment does not generate “a measurable health risk to the surrounding community” or pose a risk to wildlife, the city said.
“The chemical components of the saltwater solution (which is similar to seawater) being sprayed are naturally occurring in the environment,” the report said. It also noted that seawater “is one of the largest sources of natural aerosols in the atmosphere.”
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/008c01daa6a0%2457f2a970%2407d7fc50%24%40EndorphinSoftware.co.uk.
Oswald Petersen
Alas some good news, thanks Rebecca!
Oswald
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/CA%2BKfrk3doZvGiR2BGU1%3DShb%2BELW%3DUoQTXr61-2_b54CycNnAiQ%40mail.gmail.com.
Robin Collins
Clive Elsworth
Hi Robin
Thanks for your work on this.
How about opening up the competition to:
- Anyone, not just students?
- Other mechanisms for producing particles, such as mixing gases that react together, or modifying shipping waste gases?
Clive
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Robin Collins
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Sometimes talking is more productive than writing. Participants often resolve disagreements in our NOAC meetings.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 8th July (Aus: Tue 9th, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting:
Agenda
Robert C – Does each type of climate forcing work the same way?
Sev – Update on buoyant flakes
John N – Letter to Swiss Env Ambassador – 3 asks
- Info on Earth’s energy imbalance
Recording: https://youtu.be/0mSy_uIt_-4?t=1216
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:13:00 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Hi Mike, we are working on some interdisciplinary oceanography just north of PNG in the Philippines, would be good to discuss with you
21:50:18 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Enroads, energy transition, three pillars
22:14:52 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Clive can you drop the paper here?
22:19:27 From John Nissen : Mike, could you put your email in the chat
22:19:48 From John Nissen : email address
22:22:44 From Mike Williamson : Replying to "email address"
22:36:12 From Robert Chris : Bye folk. Have to go. Good discussion. Thanks.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Robert T – Update on Lothian School of Tech, Ocean Cooling
Greg – Michael Mann graph plots
Bru P – IPCC scenario updates – is 8.5 still relevant?
Bru P – Update on bio-restoration plan / empathy coin
Recording: https://youtu.be/des_KRf5KH8?t=935
Feel free to share that link with anyone. The recording is on YouTube with Public Visibility.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Unsubscribe: Let me know, and I’ll take you off the HPAC google group.
Clive Elsworth
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC)" group.
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Sander
We would like to plea for an open competition to include US, Dutch (TU Delft/Herman Russchenberg group), UK (Cambridge we could ask them), and other relevant (international) universities that we are working with, and to be able to include the group of this research paper by Odoulami, et al.:
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Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Sometimes talking is more productive than writing. Participants often resolve disagreements in our NOAC meetings.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 8th July (Aus: Tue 9th, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting:
Agenda
Robert C – Does each type of climate forcing work the same way?
Sev – Update on buoyant flakes
John N – Letter to Swiss Env Ambassador – 3 asks
- Info on Earth’s energy imbalance
Recording: https://youtu.be/0mSy_uIt_-4?t=1216
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:13:00 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Hi Mike, we are working on some interdisciplinary oceanography just north of PNG in the Philippines, would be good to discuss with you
21:50:18 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Enroads, energy transition, three pillars
22:14:52 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Clive can you drop the paper here?
22:19:27 From John Nissen : Mike, could you put your email in the chat
22:19:48 From John Nissen : email address
22:22:44 From Mike Williamson : Replying to "email address"
22:36:12 From Robert Chris : Bye folk. Have to go. Good discussion. Thanks.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Robert T – Update on Lothian School of Tech, Ocean Cooling
Greg – Michael Mann graph plots
Bru P – IPCC scenario updates – is 8.5 still relevant?
Bru P – Update on bio-restoration plan / empathy coin
Recording: https://youtu.be/des_KRf5KH8?t=935
Feel free to share that link with anyone. The recording is on YouTube with Public Visibility.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Unsubscribe: Let me know, and I’ll take you off the HPAC google group.
Clive Elsworth
--
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC)" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to healthy-planet-action...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/01ab01daa45f%2496b873d0%24c4295b70%24%40EndorphinSoftware.co.uk.
Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk
On 08/07/2024 01:27 BST Sev Clarke <sevc...@me.com> wrote:This https://illuminem.com/illuminemvoices/is-cloud-brightening-a-sensible-way-to-combat-climate-change is typical of the non-scientific approach that does not compare the risks of not doing MCB. Opinions like this are the lead in our (and humanity’s) saddlebags.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/090a01dad055%24b058ad10%24110a0730%24%40EndorphinSoftware.co.uk.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Sometimes talking is more productive than writing. Participants often resolve disagreements in our NOAC meetings.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 22nd July (Aus: Tue 23rd, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting:
Agenda
Rebecca – Cooling: Community engagement / social acceptance, Clouds & Round table
Rebecca – Compendium of who is researching cooling?
Clive – Is isoprene more important than DMS for ocean CCN?
Jon – SSTs this week touched below 2023 trend. Where’s it going?
Franz – No replies on criticisms on SAI suppression of atmospheric photochemistry
Hugh – CCR Update (now Centre for Climate Repair, i.e. Cambridge dropped)
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWUWqcpURcc&t=1138s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:08:39 From Jonathan Cole : quick question - what is the extra meeting? sometimes called the PRAg Extra Meeting, started apr 16th
21:23:30 From Jonathan Cole : https://youtu.be/go92lAvJTzE?si=lX1pECl_7AGKtBn5
21:23:50 From Jonathan Cole : MEERs 4 minute vid
21:23:59 From Manna Jo Greene : I am very clear that ERA is not adequate and far too slow, but here in Ulster County in the Hudson Valley, NY we are trying to set an example re: actively transitioning to a renewable energy economy with storage and efficiency.
21:25:07 From Manna Jo Greene : Just FYI. I keep up with PRAG and NOAC and HPAC to learn and share what I am learning.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QkNM9BPfJtCyeHy9-1VljFAyrhBmBspk/view?usp=drive_link
21:26:36 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : Could you please send me the video by email Jon?
21:29:13 From Dr Brian von Herzen : @Jonathan Cole which 5am group you were referring to?
21:44:25 From Jonathan Cole : https://youtu.be/go92lAvJTzE?si=lX1pECl_7AGKtBn5
21:44:32 From Manna Jo Greene : https://youtu.be/go92lAvJTzE?si=lX1pECl_7AGKtBn5
21:45:04 From Jonathan Cole : MEER SRM - YouTube
21:45:48 From Jonathan Cole : https://youtu.be/dHCLfjI1HMU?si=hpW7njYLOCnYNqQ0
21:47:14 From Jonathan Cole : 10 minute video on shanty town foil roofs for cooling
21:49:24 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Okay +link?
21:52:37 From Bru Pearce : Isoprene | Magnificent molecules | RSC Education https://edu.rsc.org/magnificent-molecules/isoprene/2000024.article
22:00:54 From Jonathan Cole : the medical analogies are useful. An invasive procedure to save the patient will always look scary to friends and family, but among the doctors it may be obviously justified to save the patient.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Robert C – Does each type of climate forcing work the same way?
Sev – Update on buoyant flakes
John N – Letter to Swiss Env Ambassador – 3 asks
- Info on Earth’s energy imbalance
Recording: https://youtu.be/0mSy_uIt_-4?t=1216
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Unsubscribe: Let me know, and I’ll take you off the HPAC google group.
Clive Elsworth
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Clive Elsworth
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/c31f01dad1d8%24456f15a0%24d04d40e0%24%40EndorphinSoftware.co.uk.
John Nissen
This message could be generalised to most of the great religions
Dr Brian von Herzen 21:14 (Edited)
Moral imperative needed on regenerating healthy climate
Jonathan Cole 21:25
genesis 2:15 niv the lord god took the man and put him in the garden of eden to work it and take care of it.
Manna Jo Greene joined as a guest
John Nissen 21:28
I would like IPCC to acknowledge they've got it wrong.
Jonathan Cole 21:29
What use can be made of these quotes for images and messages?
Jonathan Cole 21:31
Psalms 65 9 (niv) you care for the lands and water it; you enrich it abundantly. The streams of God are filled with water to provide the people with grain, for so you have ordained it.
Daniel 4 21 (niv) with beautiful leaves and abundant fruit, providing food for all, giving shelter to the wild animals, and having nesting places in its branches for the birds...
Job 5 23 (niv) For you will have a covenant with the stones of the field, and the wild animals will be at peace with you.
John Nissen 21:37
Mass migration as sea level rises perhaps a metre by 2050.
Dr Brian von Herzen 21:40
That meter will put half the rice in Vietnam underwater
Sev Clarke 21:41
That graph does not match the 784 and 831 figures in it
Jonathan Cole 21:51
will look into
those are the accumulated areas under the curves. adding all the yearlys
Sev Clarke 21:53
Still does not match
Jonathan Cole 21:54
You may be right, I depended on the original chart maker. will check it
Sev Clarke 21:58 [corrected]
Call it flash drying of seawater, not boiling as boiling leaves the salt behind
Sev Clarke 22:05
solar pond energy could help
Dr Brian von Herzen 22:05 (Edited)
Yes, pre warming?
Robert Tulip 22:06
Here are some slides as requested by Jonathan. https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/7otg4oiythl9vtjwaob6p/Slides-for-Herbert-Huppert.pptx?rlkey=ny4rz0n31a90z4qtmodsvvwes&st=yawp2t46&dl=0
Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Sometimes talking is more productive than writing. Participants often resolve disagreements in our NOAC meetings.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
- ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 5th Aug (Aus: Tue 6th, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting:
Agenda
Recording: https://youtu.be/Cyj2dtP440I?t=788
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
(Currently unavailable owing to computer repair.)
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Sometimes talking is more productive than writing. Participants often resolve disagreements in our NOAC meetings.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
- ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 19th Aug (Aus: Tue 20th, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting:
Agenda
Jon – Curious chart from Jessica Yuan from MEER.
Rebecca – 2-pager on TAI – Tropospheric Aerosol Injection. Needs to be made into a video. For COP?
Clive – Dry salt aerosol nanoparticle generator – MCB plus atmospheric methane removal.
Jon – Play Dan Kieve’s song: Fire from Ice
Recording: https://youtu.be/WBWKK7uxnX0?t=1263
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:34:48 From Bruce Parker : https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43922/EGR2023.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
21:35:00 From Bruce Parker : GAP report
21:35:01 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : I think this chart links with Robert C's comments on tipping points - tbc - I think this is what Herb is saying too (?). Note the one in the UN report has the axes, heading, units etc that we all thought were needed
22:01:19 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : Suggestion for Clive and Franz: ask Ron Baiman to get the name of TAI changed in the Oxford paper to CCA - Climate Catalyst Aerosols
22:34:34 From Jonathan Cole : Fire From Ice - Single - Album by Daniel Kieve - Apple Music
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Jon – Comedy/ Religious messages
Robert – Sequencing of climate responses
Brian – Role of historic and biogenic aerosols
Clive – Make sea salt nanoparticles with arc furnace.
John N – Ice melt emergency
Recording: https://youtu.be/Cyj2dtP440I?t=788
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
I am grateful to Robert Tulip for kindly agreeing to chair tomorrow’s NOAC meeting while I am away in France. The zoom link below remains unchanged.
Sometimes talking is more productive than writing. Participants often resolve disagreements in our NOAC meetings.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
- ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 19th Aug (Aus: Tue 20th, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting:
Agenda
Jon – Curious chart from Jessica Yuan from MEER.
Rebecca – 2-pager on TAI – Tropospheric Aerosol Injection. Needs to be made into a video. For COP?
Clive – Dry salt aerosol nanoparticle generator – MCB plus atmospheric methane removal.
Jon – Play Dan Kieve’s song: Fire from Ice
Recording: https://youtu.be/WBWKK7uxnX0?t=1263
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:34:48 From Bruce Parker : https://wedocs.unep.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.11822/43922/EGR2023.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
21:35:00 From Bruce Parker : GAP report
21:35:01 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : I think this chart links with Robert C's comments on tipping points - tbc - I think this is what Herb is saying too (?). Note the one in the UN report has the axes, heading, units etc that we all thought were needed
22:01:19 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : Suggestion for Clive and Franz: ask Ron Baiman to get the name of TAI changed in the Oxford paper to CCA - Climate Catalyst Aerosols
22:34:34 From Jonathan Cole : Fire From Ice - Single - Album by Daniel Kieve - Apple Music
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Jon – Comedy/ Religious messages
Robert – Sequencing of climate responses
Brian – Role of historic and biogenic aerosols
Clive – Make sea salt nanoparticles with arc furnace.
John N – Ice melt emergency
Recording: https://youtu.be/Cyj2dtP440I?t=788
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Sev Clarke
Tom Goreau
Congratulations!
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Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 2nd Sep (Aus: Tue 3rd, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting, Aug19th:
Robert Tulip chaired the meeting in my absence on vacation.
From Fireflies:
During the Climate Action Strategy Discussion, Rebecca Bishop introduced a project in Sierra Leone focused on climate restoration through mirrored roofs, while Greg Slater raised critical questions regarding the project's rollout and timelines.
The meeting also covered the Meer project, which aims to increase albedo in Africa, alongside Jonathan Cole's proposal of a cost-effective alternative using aluminum foil.
Sev Clarke presented an innovative ice shield concept designed to thicken Arctic ice by pumping seawater, emphasizing potential ecological benefits.
Governance issues were highlighted, particularly the International Court of Justice's investigations into climate responsibilities, with Robert Chris voicing concerns about climate tipping points. A robust debate ensued over the focus of climate strategies, balancing immediate temperature restoration and broader societal changes.
Finally, discussions about COP29 addressed travel emissions from conferences and encouraged greater online engagement, with action items including gathering research on tipping points and enhancing online participation for the upcoming conference.
Recording: There is no video recording this time.
Instead, see our Aug 8th presentation to HPAC: Cooling the Climate with Natural Tropospheric Aerosol Processes: https://youtu.be/MMckGhIyifY
It introduces the chemistry of methane removal, and how brightened clouds provide that chemistry in addition to direct ocean cooling.
Chat
I was sent no chat of the NOAC meeting.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Jon – Curious chart from Jessica Yuan from MEER.
Rebecca – 2-pager on TAI – Tropospheric Aerosol Injection. Needs to be made into a video. For COP?
Clive – Dry salt aerosol nanoparticle generator – MCB plus atmospheric methane removal.
Jon – Play Dan Kieve’s song: Fire from Ice
Recording: https://youtu.be/WBWKK7uxnX0?t=1263
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Ron Baiman
On Aug 30, 2024, at 3:32 AM, Clive Elsworth <Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk> wrote:
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rob...@rtulip.net
Hi Clive
Here are the recording and chat and Zoom transcript from the NOAC Meeting on 19-20 August.
The recording is a temporary dropbox file that can be downloaded. You might like to send as a YouTube.
Sorry to be late with this.
The agenda for the meeting was
Greg Slater: MEER Sierra Leone
Robert Tulip: TED Parsons Paper on Non Use Agreement
Rebecca Bishop: Just Have A Think – Solar Technology for Desalination Plants
Alf Thome: Sev Clarke video on ice shields
Chris Vivian: Nature Report ICJ on Country Responsibilities for Climate Change
Chris Vivian: Paper on Earth System Tipping Points Research Agenda
Robert Tulip: Plans for COP 29
Regards
Robert Tulip
--
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Robert has now sent me the last meeting recording, chat, and transcript – see below.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 2nd Sep (Aus: Tue 3rd, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting, Aug 19th:
Robert Tulip chaired the meeting in my absence.
Agenda
Agenda Greg Slater: MEER Sierra Leone
Robert Tulip: TED Parsons Paper on Non Use Agreement
Rebecca Bishop: Just Have A Think – Solar Technology for Desalination Plants
Alf Thome: Sev Clarke video on ice shields
Chris Vivian: Nature Report ICJ on Country Responsibilities for Climate Change
Chris Vivian: Paper on Earth System Tipping Points Research Agenda
Robert Tulip: Plans for COP 29
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Also, see our Aug 8th presentation to HPAC: Cooling the Climate with Natural Tropospheric Aerosol Processes: https://youtu.be/MMckGhIyifY
It introduces the chemistry of methane removal, and how brightened clouds provide that chemistry in addition to direct ocean cooling.
Chat
06:08:04 From Gregory Slater: Please put tipping point paper refs in chat?
06:08:53 From Robert Tulip to Jonathan Cole(Direct Message) : ok
06:15:58 From Dr Brian von Herzen : What about corrosion?
06:17:30 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Tipping point paper - Governance for Earth system tipping points – A research agenda – open access - https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2589811624000168?dgcid=raven_sd_via_email
06:17:30 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Link to guardian article?
06:21:41 From Gregory Slater : Replying to "Link to guardian art..."
"‘Now you can have rest in your home’: the mirror roofs cooling homes in Freetown" - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/article/2024/aug/16/mirror-roofs-cooling-homes-freetown-sierra-leone-extreme-heat
06:30:16 From Jonathan Cole : NightHawkInLight | Creating Science & DIY Videos | Patreon
06:31:03 From Jonathan Cole : https://www.youtube.com/@Nighthawkinlight/featured
06:32:44 From Jonathan Cole : https://youtube.com/@nhilextra?si=zgHIEEqvhqK0A9VO
06:42:04 From Manna Jo Greene : Do I recall a connection between MEER and solar generation?
06:45:19 From Jonathan Cole : Replying to "Do I recall a connec..."
yes. Concentrated Solar Power uses fields of mirrors. which when not in poer generation mode can also point upward and send the heat off planet. economy of scale to make mirrors will benefit this excellent way to make electricity and hot water
06:46:01 From Jonathan Cole : Replying to "Do I recall a connec..."
Concentrated solar power - Wikipedia
06:47:13 From Robert Tulip : NOAC Agenda
Greg Slater: MEER Sierra Leone
Robert Tulip: TED Parsons Paper on Non Use Agreement
Rebecca Bishop: Just Have A Think – Solar Technology for Desalination Plants
Alf Thome: Sev Clarke video on ice shields
Chris Vivian: Nature Report ICJ on Country Responsibilities for Climate Change
Chris Vivian: Paper on Earth System Tipping Points Research Agenda
Robert Tulip: Plans for COP 29
06:49:28 From Jonathan Cole : low carbon travel though right?
06:50:23 From Manna Jo Greene : Reacted to yes. Concentrated... with "👍"
06:59:33 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Two recent open access papers in Nature about The International Court of Justice advising on countries' legal obligations to fight climate change, following a UN resolution:
‘See you in climate court’ – Editorial in Nature - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02600-5.pdf
The world’s highest court must weigh in on climate - https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-024-02583-3.pdf
07:23:22 From Gregory Slater : If anyone has a link or info (peter wadhams) about the miraculous air conditioner invented by the English school kid, please share. thanks.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Jon – Curious chart from Jessica Yuan from MEER.
Rebecca – 2-pager on TAI – Tropospheric Aerosol Injection. Needs to be made into a video. For COP?
Clive – Dry salt aerosol nanoparticle generator – MCB plus atmospheric methane removal.
Jon – Play Dan Kieve’s song: Fire from Ice
Recording: https://youtu.be/WBWKK7uxnX0?t=1263
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
John Nissen
other topic: the fact that people use more when the machines get more efficient
This phenomenon is known as the rebound effect or Jevons paradox.
Messages addressed to "Meeting Group Chat" will also appear in the meeting group chat in Team Chat
Dr Brian von Herzen 21:28
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seawater_greenhouse
Jonathan Cole 21:35
Treating a Heart Attack with a Diet Plan: Relying solely on GHG reduction to cool the planet is like trying to treat a heart attack by starting a diet plan. While a healthier diet is beneficial in the long run, it does nothing to address the immediate crisis.
Using a Sponge to Stop a Flood: Reducing greenhouse gases is akin to using a sponge to stop a flood. The effort is commendable, but the scale and speed of the problem far outpace the solution's effectiveness.
Putting a Band-Aid on a Broken Bone: Addressing climate change by only cutting emissions is like putting a Band-Aid on a broken bone. It might cover the problem, but it doesn't heal the underlying issue quickly enough to prevent further damage.
Cooling a Boiling Pot with an Ice Cube: Attempting to cool the planet by reducing GHGs alone is like trying to cool a boiling pot of water with a single ice cube. The ice cube will eventually melt, but the pot will remain hot for a long time
John Macdonald 21:36
There is a large olivine resource in New Guinea which could be mined to improve conditions of the GBR nearby.
Jonathan Cole 21:41
Don Quixote Fighting Windmills: Attempting to resolve climate change solely through GHG reduction is akin to Don Quixote battling windmills, mistaking them for giants. The solution, though noble in intent, misinterprets the true nature of the challenge.
Nero Fiddling While Rome Burns: Focusing only on GHG reduction is like Nero allegedly playing the fiddle as Rome burned. The action taken is disconnected from addressing the immediate crisis and may distract from more urgent responses needed.
Using the Gordian Knot Approach: Trying to solve planetary overheating by reducing GHGs is like attempting to untangle the Gordian Knot by conventional means. Alexander the Great famously cut through the knot, suggesting that unconventional approaches may be required.
King Canute Commanding the Tide: Relying solely on GHG reduction mirrors King Canute's demonstration that he couldn't command the sea. It illustrates the futility of certain actions against the natural and complex forces at play.
The Emperor's New Clothes: Addressing only GHG emissions is reminiscent of the Emperor parading in invisible clothing. The focus on appearances rather than genuine solutions fails to address the real, underlying issues.
These analogies, drawn from historical and literary contexts, underscore the importance of aligning the type of solution with the nature of the problem, rather than just its scale.
John Nissen 21:49
@Jonathan, these analogies are rather insulting to the advocates of emissions reduction. I suggest that we point out that there are two main sources of heating: (I) greenhouse gas and reduced thermal energy going into space; and (ii) retreat of snow and sea ice, reducing the albedo of the planet. The green movement has only addressed the former; the IPCC and climate community are focussed on the GHG side and ignored the albedo side. Our groups (NOAC, HPAC and PRAG) can point out that the albedo side needs to be addressed urgently, especially in the Arctic where tipping elements have already been activated.
Jonathan Cole 21:49
"Ease Off the Gas: Cool the Planet with Clouds and Ice."
"Brake for the Future: Boost Clouds and Ice to Halt Climate Chaos."
"Slow Down and Cool Off: Press the Brake with Increased Cloud and Ice Cover."
"Shift Gears to Safety: Balance Emissions Reduction with Planetary Cooling."
John Nissen 21:56
@Jonathan Cole, the Earth's energy imbalance has been investigated by the CERES satellite, with data on each side over the past 20 years. The thermal energy outgoing hasn't changed very much; but the outgoing shortwave radiation has reduced significantly, with a marked downturn in 2023.
Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands 22:03
I’m happy to give an update on Rebrighten.org if there is time. 😊
Dr Brian von Herzen 22:03
https://www.climatefoundation.org/kelp-coin.html
Ronal Larson joined as a guest
Jonathan Cole 22:12
Restoring the ocean to health.. BUOYANT FLAKES | by Sevclarke | Aug, 2024 | Medium
5535Buoyant_flake_fertilization_rev.pdf (un.org)
Sev Clarke 22:14
https://www.noac.info/ReferencesDetail.aspx
Bru Pearce 22:19
Sorry I have to go and collect my wife - see you all next time.
Bru Pearce left
Jonathan Cole 22:26
Engaging the Audience's Imagination
Effective analogies often create vivid imagery that engages the audience's imagination. By painting a clear mental picture, analogies can make abstract ideas more tangible and compelling, which can be particularly persuasive in change communication.
Robert Chris left
Jonathan Cole 22:29 (Edited)
disincentivize advise from doctor at hospital rather than rapid needed treatment.
Jonathan Cole 22:30
sinking ship water into bottom, captain says can you help bail? no search for hole or action to mend hole.
tipping ship sinking point sign of a serious leak and little time
ghg reduction fine for thermal energy trying to leave but does nothing for helping short wave to exit via reflection, as it was before.
ir changes are measured as small, albedo changes measured as large and more significant
Jonathan Cole 22:34 (Edited)
titanic, water from one area IR, vs water from another leak (short wave)
John Macdonald 22:35
Actions speak louder than words
Jonathan Cole 22:37
Analogies can help overcome resistance to new ideas by framing them in a context that is less threatening or more familiar. This can make the audience more open to considering the change, as the analogy provides a safe and relatable entry point into the discussion 3
Firefighting with Water, Not Just Prevention: Addressing climate change by only reducing emissions is like trying to prevent a forest fire by banning campfires while ignoring the blaze already raging. Direct cooling is akin to using water to douse the flames, providing immediate relief and preventing further destruction.
Cooling a Fever Before Treating the Cause: When a patient has a dangerously high fever, doctors first focus on bringing the temperature down before diagnosing the underlying illness. Similarly, direct cooling strategies, like increasing cloud cover and polar ice, are essential to stabilize the planet's climate before long-term solutions can take effect.
Stopping a Runaway Train: Imagine a train speeding towards a broken bridge. Reducing emissions is like slowing the train slightly, but direct cooling is the emergency brake that stops it in its tracks, preventing disaster. Immediate cooling measures are crucial to halt the momentum of climate change
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 16th Sep (Aus: Tue 17th, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting, Mon Sep 2nd:
Rebecca Bishop said this was “a high-quality presentation”.
Franz Oeste explained the importance of life for stabilising the climate. For example, vegetation feeds microbes that weather the soil to extract minerals. When the vegetation rots down the minerals it releases (potash) represent alkalinity that runs off into the ocean, drawing down CO2. (For example, microbes produce compounds such as enterobactin, which “is a high affinity siderophore that acquires iron for microbial systems.”) This is likely a main reason why atmospheric CO2 has declined from the order of around 2000 ppm since the Devonian period 400 million years ago when trees evolved. Tree root systems reach down much further in soils than grasslands for example, and tropical forests are likely the main contributor of ocean alkalinity, where tree growth is intensive.
Brian explained how the copious amounts of calcium carbonate in the deep ocean represent a huge ‘chemical buffer’ that neutralises the carbonic acid produced when organic carbon (e.g. seaweed) sinks to the seabed and is metabolised by benthic life there. Seaweed can sink between 800 – 4000m per day, which means little carbonic acid is released on the way down.
Franz also explained how 2 billion years ago the evolution of cyanobacteria to split water to extract hydrogen – and release oxygen into the air – led to a large decrease of atmospheric methane, which likely led to some of the ‘snowball Earth’ events.
Bru Pearce later explained that since the 1800s the mass of Earth’s mammalian wildlife is estimated to have decreased from around 95% of total biomass to only 4% today.
Agenda
Clive – Drinking water proposal – would it work? (I should have said Persian Gulf, not Red Sea.)
Alf – How are the projects going?
- Bru Pearce: - Envisionation – Biosphere restoration plan, Digital Asset: EmpathyCoin
- Brian: - Climate Foundation, KelpCoin
- Sev: Marine Biomass Consortium - Buoyant Flakes concept – FePSi: Iron, Phosphate, Silicate
- Clive: Benign shipping aerosol produced by low energy plasma arc furnace
- Rebecca – Rebrighten – Renewable energy for marine vessels for rebrightening, Social Acceptance of small-scale field trials, Marine biogenic aerosols.
Jon C - The blunt analogies useful for stating how GHG reduction alone is no real therapy for overheating.
Recording: https://youtu.be/Gcz7rGKs_Hw?t=957
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:03:17 From Jonathan Cole : the blunt analogys useful for stating how GHG reduction alone is no real therapy for over heating
21:08:48 From Manna Jo Greene : I'll be right back
21:14:25 From Jonathan Cole : other topic: the fact that people use more when the machines get more efficient
21:16:10 From Jonathan Cole : This phenomenon is known as the rebound effect or Jevons paradox.
21:28:08 From Dr Brian von Herzen : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seawater_greenhouse
21:35:44 From Jonathan Cole : Treating a Heart Attack with a Diet Plan: Relying solely on GHG reduction to cool the planet is like trying to treat a heart attack by starting a diet plan. While a healthier diet is beneficial in the long run, it does nothing to address the immediate crisis.
Using a Sponge to Stop a Flood: Reducing greenhouse gases is akin to using a sponge to stop a flood. The effort is commendable, but the scale and speed of the problem far outpace the solution's effectiveness.
Putting a Band-Aid on a Broken Bone: Addressing climate change by only cutting emissions is like putting a Band-Aid on a broken bone. It might cover the problem, but it doesn't heal the underlying issue quickly enough to prevent further damage.
Cooling a Boiling Pot with an Ice Cube: Attempting to cool the planet by reducing GHGs alone is like trying to cool a boiling pot of water with a single ice cube. The ice cube will eventually melt, but the pot will remain hot for a long time
21:36:42 From John Macdonald : There is a large olivine resource in New Guinea which could be mined to improve conditions of the GBR nearby.
21:40:59 From Jonathan Cole : Don Quixote Fighting Windmills: Attempting to resolve climate change solely through GHG reduction is akin to Don Quixote battling windmills, mistaking them for giants. The solution, though noble in intent, misinterprets the true nature of the challenge.
Nero Fiddling While Rome Burns: Focusing only on GHG reduction is like Nero allegedly playing the fiddle as Rome burned. The action taken is disconnected from addressing the immediate crisis and may distract from more urgent responses needed.
Using the Gordian Knot Approach: Trying to solve planetary overheating by reducing GHGs is like attempting to untangle the Gordian Knot by conventional means. Alexander the Great famously cut through the knot, suggesting that unconventional approaches may be required.
21:41:28 From Jonathan Cole : King Canute Commanding the Tide: Relying solely on GHG reduction mirrors King Canute's demonstration that he couldn't command the sea. It illustrates the futility of certain actions against the natural and complex forces at play.
The Emperor's New Clothes: Addressing only GHG emissions is reminiscent of the Emperor parading in invisible clothing. The focus on appearances rather than genuine solutions fails to address the real, underlying issues.
These analogies, drawn from historical and literary contexts, underscore the importance of aligning the type of solution with the nature of the problem, rather than just its scale.
21:49:16 From John Nissen : @Jonathan, these analogies are rather insulting to the advocates of emissions reduction. I suggest that we point out that there are two main sources of heating: (I) greenhouse gas and reduced thermal energy going into space; and (ii) retreat of snow and sea ice, reducing the albedo of the planet. The green movement has only addressed the former; the IPCC and climate community are focussed on the GHG side and ignored the albedo side. Our groups (NOAC, HPAC and PRAG) can point out that the albedo side needs to be addressed urgently, especially in the Arctic where tipping elements have already been activated.
21:49:49 From Jonathan Cole : "Ease Off the Gas: Cool the Planet with Clouds and Ice."
"Brake for the Future: Boost Clouds and Ice to Halt Climate Chaos."
"Slow Down and Cool Off: Press the Brake with Increased Cloud and Ice Cover."
"Shift Gears to Safety: Balance Emissions Reduction with Planetary Cooling."
21:56:25 From John Nissen : @Jonathan Cole, the Earth's energy imbalance has been investigated by the CERES satellite, with data on each side over the past 20 years. The thermal energy outgoing hasn't changed very much; but the outgoing shortwave radiation has reduced significantly, with a marked downturn in 2023.
22:03:54 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : I’m happy to give an update on Rebrighten.org if there is time. 😊
22:03:57 From Dr Brian von Herzen : https://www.climatefoundation.org/kelp-coin.html
22:04:05 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Reacted to I’m happy to give an... with "👍"
22:05:39 From Jonathan Cole : Reacted to "I’m happy to give an..." with 👍
22:12:18 From Jonathan Cole : Restoring the ocean to health.. BUOYANT FLAKES | by Sev clarke | Aug, 2024 | Medium
22:13:18 From Jonathan Cole : 5535Buoyant_flake_fertilization_rev.pdf (un.org)
22:14:18 From Sev Clarke : https://www.noac.info/ReferencesDetail.aspx
22:19:41 From Bru Pearce : Sorry I have to go and collect my wife - see you all next time.
22:22:06 From Jonathan Cole to Clive Elsworth(direct message) : can we get a update from Rebecca on Rebrighten?
22:26:03 From Jonathan Cole : Engaging the Audience's Imagination
Effective analogies often create vivid imagery that engages the audience's imagination. By painting a clear mental picture, analogies can make abstract ideas more tangible and compelling, which can be particularly persuasive in change communication.
22:29:39 From Jonathan Cole : disincentivize advise from doctor at hospital rather than rapid needed treatment.
22:30:44 From Jonathan Cole : sinking ship water into bottom, captain says can you help bail? no search for hole or action to mend hole.
22:31:26 From Jonathan Cole : tipping ship sinking point sign of a serious leak and little time
22:32:57 From Jonathan Cole : ghg reduction fine for thermal energy trying to leave but does nothing for helping short wave to exit via reflection, as it was before.
22:33:36 From Jonathan Cole : ir changes are measured as small, albedo changes measured as large and more significant
22:34:22 From Jonathan Cole : titanic, water from one area IR, vs water from another leak (short wave)
22:35:52 From John Macdonald : Actions speak louder than words
22:37:01 From Jonathan Cole : Analogies can help overcome resistance to new ideas by framing them in a context that is less threatening or more familiar. This can make the audience more open to considering the change, as the analogy provides a safe and relatable entry point into the discussion 3
22:39:39 From Jonathan Cole : Firefighting with Water, Not Just Prevention: Addressing climate change by only reducing emissions is like trying to prevent a forest fire by banning campfires while ignoring the blaze already raging. Direct cooling is akin to using water to douse the flames, providing immediate relief and preventing further destruction.
Cooling a Fever Before Treating the Cause: When a patient has a dangerously high fever, doctors first focus on bringing the temperature down before diagnosing the underlying illness. Similarly, direct cooling strategies, like increasing cloud cover and polar ice, are essential to stabilize the planet's climate before long-term solutions can take effect.
Stopping a Runaway Train: Imagine a train speeding towards a broken bridge. Reducing emissions is like slowing the train slightly, but direct cooling is the emergency brake that stops it in its tracks, preventing disaster. Immediate cooling measures are crucial to halt the moment of climate change.
Fireflies
During the recent Project Update and Strategy Discussion meeting, participants provided updates on various climate initiatives, focusing on a proposal for drinking water production and the development of solar-powered greenhouses aimed at enhancing water collection in the Middle East, which highlighted the role of plants in oxygen generation. The effectiveness of ocean fertilization methods was explored, along with the impact of macroalgae on carbon sequestration, featuring insights from Sev Clarke regarding the ocean's biological pump. The meeting also covered cryptocurrency initiatives, particularly the launch of the empathy coin to support biosphere restoration and the introduction of kelp coin. Additionally, updates on the Re-Brighton Project underscored the need for funding renewable energy solutions for marine vessels, marine cloud re-brightening, and fostering social acceptance for experimental trials. Key action items included launching a website for the empathy coin project and developing a memorandum of understanding for the Blue Cooling Initiative.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Agenda Greg Slater: MEER Sierra Leone
Robert Tulip: TED Parsons Paper on Non Use Agreement
Rebecca Bishop: Just Have A Think – Solar Technology for Desalination Plants
Alf Thome: Sev Clarke video on ice shields
Chris Vivian: Nature Report ICJ on Country Responsibilities for Climate Change
Chris Vivian: Paper on Earth System Tipping Points Research Agenda
Robert Tulip: Plans for COP 29
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohf3igmYIRw&t=417s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Ron Baiman
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Clive Elsworth
Reminder:
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 16th Sep (Aus: Tue 17th, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting, Mon Sep 2nd:
Rebecca Bishop said this was “a high-quality presentation”.
Franz Oeste explained the importance of life for stabilising the climate. For example, vegetation feeds microbes that weather the soil to extract minerals. When the vegetation rots down the minerals it releases (potash) represent alkalinity that runs off into the ocean, drawing down CO2. (For example, microbes produce compounds such as enterobactin, which “is a high affinity siderophore that acquires iron for microbial systems.”) This is likely a main reason why atmospheric CO2 has declined from the order of around 2000 ppm since the Devonian period 400 million years ago when trees evolved. Tree root systems reach down much further in soils than grasslands for example, and tropical forests are likely the main contributor of ocean alkalinity, where tree growth is intensive.
Brian explained how the copious amounts of calcium carbonate in the deep ocean represent a huge ‘chemical buffer’ that neutralises the carbonic acid produced when organic carbon (e.g. seaweed) sinks to the seabed and is metabolised by benthic life there. Seaweed can sink between 800 – 4000m per day, which means little carbonic acid is released on the way down.
Franz also explained how 2 billion years ago the evolution of cyanobacteria to split water to extract hydrogen – and release oxygen into the air – led to a large decrease of atmospheric methane, which likely led to some of the ‘snowball Earth’ events.
Bru Pearce later explained that since the 1800s the mass of Earth’s mammalian wildlife is estimated to have decreased from around 95% of total biomass to only 4% today.
Agenda
Clive – Drinking water proposal – would it work? (I should have said Persian Gulf, not Red Sea.)
Alf – How are the projects going?
- Bru Pearce: - Envisionation – Biosphere restoration plan, Digital Asset: EmpathyCoin
- Brian: - Climate Foundation, KelpCoin
- Sev: Marine Biomass Consortium - Buoyant Flakes concept – FePSi: Iron, Phosphate, Silicate
- Clive: Benign shipping aerosol produced by low energy plasma arc furnace
- Rebecca – Rebrighten – Renewable energy for marine vessels for rebrightening, Social Acceptance of small-scale field trials, Marine biogenic aerosols.
Jon C - The blunt analogies useful for stating how GHG reduction alone is no real therapy for overheating.
Recording: https://youtu.be/Gcz7rGKs_Hw?t=957
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:03:17 From Jonathan Cole : the blunt analogys useful for stating how GHG reduction alone is no real therapy for over heating
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Previous meeting
Agenda
Agenda Greg Slater: MEER Sierra Leone
Robert Tulip: TED Parsons Paper on Non Use Agreement
Rebecca Bishop: Just Have A Think – Solar Technology for Desalination Plants
Alf Thome: Sev Clarke video on ice shields
Chris Vivian: Nature Report ICJ on Country Responsibilities for Climate Change
Chris Vivian: Paper on Earth System Tipping Points Research Agenda
Robert Tulip: Plans for COP 29
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ohf3igmYIRw&t=417s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is : Monday 30th Sep (Aus: Tue 1st Oct, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting - Mon Sep 16th
Agenda
Jesper – Cloud cooling idea – feedback?
Hugo – Krill, sinking carbon
Chris V
– ARIA - £80 million to avoid tipping points:
- Greenland Ice + Sub polar Gyre
- Ocean visions – Arctic ice
- Hugh + Shaun + Ben Kravitz – podcast on Arctic intervention
Clive – Update from Herb on HPAC + other
John M – Woods hole – delaying ocean alkalinity trial, permitting problem
Greg – Tipping point temperatures.
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq9izDw9OqE&t=975s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:11:12 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : ARIA - See this post about ARIA, UK equivalent of US ARPA, with a programme of £81 million funding to develop early warning systems to sound the alarm if Earth gets perilously close to crossing climate tipping points:
21:12:14 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Ocean Visions:
- New Road Map on Pathways to Slow Loss of Arctic Sea Ice – https://oceanvisions.org/arctic-sea-ice-road-map/?mc_cid=a94d9c9a6b&mc_eid=80c0d19696
- Arctic Sea Ice Road Map Introduction Webinar - October 2, 11:00am - 12:00 pm EST and October 3, 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm EST – Register at https://oceanvisions.us18.list-manage.com/track/click?u=a95d9255532a12b4ed78ae67b&id=a305d9d77d&e=80c0d19696
21:12:22 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : The Conversation Weekly:
Geoengineering part 1: the case to try modifying the climate - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/geoengineering-part-1-the-case-to-try-modifying-the-climate/id1550643487?i=1000667027864
Geoengineering part 2: the case against reflecting sunlight to cool the Earth - https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/geoengineering-part-2-the-case-against-reflecting/id1550643487?i=1000667296246
21:15:24 From John Macdonald : https://www.wbur.org/news/2024/07/11/ocean-alkalinity-enhancement-experiment-woods-hole-whoi
21:15:36 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Re OIF and WHOI - see this paper Next steps for assessing ocean iron fertilization for marine carbon dioxide removal - https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/climate/articles/10.3389/fclim.2024.1430957
21:28:09 From Jonathan Cole : CROI Cooling (energy) return On Invested (energy)
21:28:14 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : See also this paper from WHOI – Electrochemical ocean iron fertilization and alkalinity enhancement approach toward CO2 sequestration - https://doi.org/10.1038/s44183-024-00064-8
21:35:45 From Jonathan Cole : The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) measures the energy produced per input unit (such as money, materials, or energy). On the other hand, Cooling Return on Investment (CROI) calculates the amount of heat removed from the Earth system per unit of energy input used for cooling. from MEER website
21:37:20 From Ron Baiman : Link to HPAC cooling paper that includes links to unpublished Salter papers in the MCB section: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Yly53ZRikqrwvDNzu9KNelbNeNQW7sKB/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=116465941111195452408&rtpof=true&sd=true
21:39:10 From Jonathan Cole : In a best-case scenario, only a small percentage of our energy consumption (around 1TW) could be used to combat global warming. However, this 1TW must be capable of removing the EEI of 1,500TW from the Earth's system. Therefore, any strategy proposed must have a CROI that is substantially higher than 1,000. In other words, the 1TW of power must result in significantly more than 1,000TW of cooling or heat removal from the Earth.
21:43:31 From Ron Baiman : Hi Jon, These calcs that I believe originate from Ye? don't appear (and I've communicated this with Ye and others in the past) to take into account CDR methods with co-benefits that on net produce renewable energy rather than use it and/or natural CDR methods that regenerate the ecosystem and don't resource their energy from human generated sources. Similarly, I think Ye's cooling return on investment is missing some adjustments and a bit too narrow in its approach.
21:45:50 From Jonathan Cole : Reacted to "Hi Jon, These calcs..." with 👍
21:53:03 From Ron Baiman : Recent Wake Smith podcast on polar SAI and the AMOC and other topics (I'm halfway through!):https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/near-term-arctic-srm-wake-smith/id1529459393?i=1000669598445
22:01:01 From Gregory Slater to Clive Elsworth(direct message) : How many 'members' (or, on mailing list) of NOAC now?
22:04:39 From Gregory Slater to Clive Elsworth(direct message) : Ten point advocacy plan?
22:21:58 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Ocean Pavilion at COP29?
• https://t.e2ma.net/click/u7lj6o/68yby7rc/ujj17vb
Whether you’ve been with us before or are new to the Ocean Pavilion, we encourage organizations committed to the ocean to apply to be a Pavilion partner. Partnership includes benefits such as guaranteed programming slots, meeting room access, and branding opportunities within the Pavilion.
• Submit an event proposal - https://t.e2ma.net/click/u7lj6o/68yby7rc/ack17vb
We welcome submissions for panels, workshops, and other programming aligned with our COP29 themes, with preference given to Pavilion partners. The deadline to submit programming proposals is Sept. 27, 2024.
22:31:09 From Ron Baiman : Smith makes point that AMOC has tipped many times in the past (is very "tippy") and tips fast in human time scales 20-30 years - both of which make it a particularly scary tipping point.
22:34:43 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Global Tipping Points - https://global-tipping-points.org/
Fireflies
Overview
The NOAC Meeting focused on advancing climate restoration strategies through innovative concepts and collaborative planning, featuring discussions on ocean cooling and marine engineering. Sev Clarke facilitated a review of past initiatives aimed at ice thickening, while new member Jesper Pedersen introduced his patent-pending cloud cooling technology that utilizes wind turbines to generate fog and cool air. Feedback from participants highlighted both the potential and challenges of this approach. Further, Hugo Hinrichsen presented research on krill's role in carbon sequestration and ocean fertilization, sparking debate on its climate impact. Updates on climate research funding and advocacy efforts were shared by Chris Vivian and Ron Baiman, emphasizing the importance of outreach and collaboration with other organizations. The meeting also addressed the significance of climate tipping points, particularly the AMOC, and concluded with various action items, including setting up a test model for the cloud cooling concept and delivering crucial research papers to the IMO office.
Notes
🌊 Ocean Cooling and Climate Restoration (01:42 - 09:09)
Sev Clarke discussed taking failed ideas and improving them
Discussed ice thickening methods and their effectiveness
Jesper Pedersen introduced from Denmark, marine engineer background
Hugo Hinrichsen introduced, ex-navy, working on ocean fertilization project
🌡️ Cloud Cooling Idea (09:10 - 23:56)
Jesper Pedersen presented his patent-pending invention for cloud cooling
Concept involves spraying water from wind turbines to cool air and create fog
Discussed potential benefits and challenges of the idea
Sev Clarke and others provided feedback on the concept
📊 Climate Research and Initiatives (23:59 - 36:03)
Chris Vivian shared updates on climate research funding and publications
Discussed Ocean Visions roadmap on slowing Arctic sea ice loss
Mentioned podcasts featuring discussions on geoengineering
Greg Slater inquired about tipping points and CO2 half-life in the atmosphere
🔬 Ocean Fertilization and Carbon Sequestration (36:20 - 47:02)
Hugo Hinrichsen presented research on krill's potential for carbon sequestration
Discussed plans for ocean fertilization experiments using tourist ships
Debated the significance of krill-based carbon sequestration in climate terms
📝 Research Papers and Advocacy (47:16 - 01:07:18)
Ron Baiman discussed recently published and upcoming papers on climate cooling
Herb Simmens provided updates on HPAC activities and strategic planning
Discussed advocacy efforts and potential collaboration with other organizations
Explored ideas for improving outreach and communication strategies
🌐 Climate Conferences and Tipping Points (01:07:18 - 01:38:37)
Discussed upcoming climate conferences and opportunities for participation
Explored the concept of climate tipping points and their uncertainties
Debated the reliability and actionability of tipping point predictions
Mentioned the importance of the AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) as a potential tipping point
Action items
Jesper Pedersen -Set up a test model for cloud cooling concept in Denmark with DTU space (37:52)
Clive Elsworth - Print out and deliver the IMO sulfur dioxide removal paper to the IMO office (25:40)
Herb Simmens - Develop program for HPAC meeting on tipping points (01:10:18)
Ron Baiman - Contact Lonnie Thompson at OSU to share recently published climate papers (01:19:28)
Chris Vivian - Share link to Ocean Pavilion information for COP29 in chat (01:25:32)
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting - Mon Sep 2nd:
Agenda
Clive – Drinking water proposal – would it work? (I should have said Persian Gulf, not Red Sea.)
Alf – How are the projects going?
- Bru Pearce: - Envisionation – Biosphere restoration plan, Digital Asset: EmpathyCoin
- Brian: - Climate Foundation, KelpCoin
- Sev: Marine Biomass Consortium - Buoyant Flakes concept – FePSi: Iron, Phosphate, Silicate
- Clive: Benign shipping aerosol produced by low energy plasma arc furnace
- Rebecca – Rebrighten – Renewable energy for marine vessels for rebrightening, Social Acceptance of small-scale field trials, Marine biogenic aerosols.
Jon C - The blunt analogies useful for stating how GHG reduction alone is no real therapy for overheating.
Recording: https://youtu.be/Gcz7rGKs_Hw?t=957
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 30th Sep (Aus: Tue 1st Oct, 6am AEST)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting - Mon Sep 16th
Agenda
Jesper – Cloud cooling idea – feedback?
Hugo – Krill, sinking carbon
Chris V
– ARIA - £80 million to avoid tipping points:
- Greenland Ice + Sub polar Gyre
- Ocean visions – Arctic ice
- Hugh + Shaun + Ben Kravitz – podcast on Arctic intervention
Clive – Update from Herb on HPAC + other
John M – Woods hole – delaying ocean alkalinity trial, permitting problem
Greg – Tipping point temperatures.
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq9izDw9OqE&t=975s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:11:12 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : ARIA - See this post about ARIA, UK equivalent of US ARPA, with a programme of £81 million funding to develop early warning systems to sound the alarm if Earth gets perilously close to crossing climate tipping points:
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting - Mon Sep 2nd:
Agenda
Clive – Drinking water proposal – would it work? (I should have said Persian Gulf, not Red Sea.)
Alf – How are the projects going?
- Bru Pearce: - Envisionation – Biosphere restoration plan, Digital Asset: EmpathyCoin
- Brian: - Climate Foundation, KelpCoin
- Sev: Marine Biomass Consortium - Buoyant Flakes concept – FePSi: Iron, Phosphate, Silicate
- Clive: Benign shipping aerosol produced by low energy plasma arc furnace
- Rebecca – Rebrighten – Renewable energy for marine vessels for rebrightening, Social Acceptance of small-scale field trials, Marine biogenic aerosols.
Jon C - The blunt analogies useful for stating how GHG reduction alone is no real therapy for overheating.
Recording: https://youtu.be/Gcz7rGKs_Hw?t=957
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Aus: now 1 hr later – 7am.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 14th Oct (Aus: Tue 15th Oct, 7am AEDT)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 7am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting – Mon Sep 30th
Agenda
John M – Video from Leon Simons & Elliot Jacobsen: Aerosols and rapid climate change
John M – Update on Rebrighten
Herb – HPAC strategy update
Clive – Recent video with Robert Chris: Decarbonisation is not Enough: https://youtu.be/r5QQ7otS5Ds
Chris V - New Scientist article on Real-Ice to restore Arctic ice.
Jon – Review AI generated images
Recording: https://youtu.be/96Ys7618RxE?t=909
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:00:54 From Jonathan Cole to Clive Elsworth(direct message) : please turn up your mic
21:08:48 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : We have NEW coal mines in Australia 😢
21:10:01 From Jesper Pedersen : Reacted to "We have NEW coal min..." with 😕
21:19:33 From Ron Baiman : HPAC IMO Open Letter: https://academic.oup.com/oocc/article/4/1/kgae008/7706251
21:21:41 From Clive Elsworth : Leon Simons & Elliot Jacobsen, Aerosols and rapid climate change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BUYPvseQ4cY
21:27:51 From Ron Baiman : Thank you Clive!
21:34:46 From Ron Baiman : Brian could you put link in Chat to Simon talk?
21:34:56 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Yes
21:35:13 From Ron Baiman : 👍
21:36:47 From Dr Brian von Herzen : https://www.youtube.com/live/BUYPvseQ4cY?si=z7Aa7cL1mnFZKRqS
21:39:33 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : Hi Chris, I’ve just forwarded 2 relevant emails from ARIA re Forecasting Tipping Points. Any comment welcome 🤗
21:53:37 From Ron Baiman : @Hugo are you talking about Tennessee banned SRM per NYT article
21:55:00 From Ron Baiman : In today's NYT: "Renegades of Silicon Valley Pollute the Sky to Save the Planet" (I'll find link).
21:55:20 From Jonathan Cole : That is a very benign summary of what happened in Alemeda. Well put.
21:55:59 From Ron Baiman : Link to Renegades of silicon valley NYT article: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/25/climate/rogue-solar-geoengineering.html?unlocked_article_code=1.Ok4.PcGR.gPWuLDIGPqNz&smid=url-share
21:58:23 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : Reacted to "That is a very benig…" with ❤️
21:59:38 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : Replying to "That is a very benig…"
I’ve looked at the documents on the County website Jon, & can recommend doing this.
22:00:48 From Chris Vivian : New Scientist - Plan to refreeze Arctic sea ice shows promise in first tests - https://www.newscientist.com/article/2448831-plan-to-refreeze-arctic-sea-ice-shows-promise-in-first-tests/
Indigenous people rush to stop ‘false climate solutions’ ahead of COP29 - https://www.hcn.org/articles/indigenous-people-rush-to-stop-false-climate-solutions-ahead-of-cop29/
22:11:01 From Ron Baiman : Wednesday's HPAC Oct. 2 5:30 pm EDT meeting on DCC Coordination and Governance will also include a summary of the HPAC UNDCC paper perspective on DCC Coordination and governance.
22:14:56 From Ron Baiman : Per Clive's nudging: If anyone know Morton please contact me (rpbaiman@gmailcom) or send HPAC UNDCC paper to him directly when the official published link comes out!
22:16:48 From Ron Baiman : Wake Smith Polar SAI to build "fire extinguisher" in case AMOC begins flipping this century: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/near-term-arctic-srm-wake-smith/id1529459393?i=1000669598445
22:23:57 From Ron Baiman : Netflix's Extrapolation climate change series must have used some of these AI video images!
Fireflies
Nothing this time.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting - Mon Sep 16th
Agenda
Jesper – Cloud cooling idea – feedback?
Hugo – Krill, sinking carbon
Chris V
– ARIA - £80 million to avoid tipping points:
- Greenland Ice + Sub polar Gyre
- Ocean visions – Arctic ice
- Hugh + Shaun + Ben Kravitz – podcast on Arctic intervention
Clive – Update from Herb on HPAC + other
John M – Woods hole – delaying ocean alkalinity trial, permitting problem
Greg – Tipping point temperatures.
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq9izDw9OqE&t=975s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Aus: now 1 hr later – 7am.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 14th Oct (Aus: Tue 15th Oct, 7am AEDT)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 7am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/87105924845?pwd=dk1xNG94VmZPTkFlTURNcXlhNXBGUT09
Last Meeting – Mon Sep 30th
Agenda
John M – Video from Leon Simons & Elliot Jacobsen: Aerosols and rapid climate change
John M – Update on Rebrighten
Herb – HPAC strategy update
Clive – Recent video with Robert Chris: Decarbonisation is not Enough: https://youtu.be/r5QQ7otS5Ds
Chris V - New Scientist article on Real-Ice to restore Arctic ice.
Jon – Review AI generated images
Recording: https://youtu.be/96Ys7618RxE?t=909
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:00:54 From Jonathan Cole to Clive Elsworth(direct message) : please turn up your mic
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting - Mon Sep 16th
Agenda
Jesper – Cloud cooling idea – feedback?
Hugo – Krill, sinking carbon
Chris V
– ARIA - £80 million to avoid tipping points:
- Greenland Ice + Sub polar Gyre
- Ocean visions – Arctic ice
- Hugh + Shaun + Ben Kravitz – podcast on Arctic intervention
Clive – Update from Herb on HPAC + other
John M – Woods hole – delaying ocean alkalinity trial, permitting problem
Greg – Tipping point temperatures.
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qq9izDw9OqE&t=975s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
USA: 1 hr later, until your clocks change.
Aus: now another 1 hr later – 8am.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 28th Oct (Aus: Tue 29th Oct, 8am AEDT)
• 2pm PDT (USA)
• 5pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting
Agenda
Bruce Parker – Inventory of climate feedbacks,
Robert T – Albedo governance,
Clive, Franz – update
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYeg7OLQD-s&t=691s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:19:44 From Gregory Slater : Does Hansen include something like this spreadsheet in his paper(s)?
21:20:50 From Gregory Slater : There is really no account of feedbacks in climate simulations?
21:23:32 From Gregory Slater : Bruce: Please define what you mean by 'feedback' and how do you calculate it without a climate model that predicts a profile of growing T and its consequent effect on these feedback numbers?
21:41:04 From Bru Pearce : Harsh Realities.pdf (apollo-gaia.org) 2015 David Wasdell's work
21:42:38 From Bruce Parker : Links to my analyses:
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/Questions for Climate Scientists.pdf
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/GHG emissions from natural feedbacks.pdf
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/CO2BudgetAndNaturalFeedbacks.pdf
Links to my analyses:
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/Questions for Climate Scientists.pdf
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/GHG emissions from natural feedbacks.pdf
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/CO2BudgetAndNaturalFeedbacks.pdf
22:09:16 From Manna Jo Greene : I have mentioned this before, but there are communication experts skilled in building consensus that can be very helpful within the proposed International Albedo Union
22:09:41 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Reacted to I have mentioned t G... with "👍"
22:10:02 From Manna Jo Greene : Reacted to I have mentioned thi... with "👍"
22:10:05 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Sociocratic consent, yes.
22:10:18 From Manna Jo Greene : Reacted to Sociocratic consent,... with "👍"
22:16:47 From Bru Pearce : By all I have to leave.
22:23:22 From John Macdonald : It will be easier to get the international Albedo Union off the ground if it is limited to tropospheric and surface reflection only.
22:24:35 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Albedo restoration
22:24:44 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Reacted to It will be easier to... with "👍"
22:31:38 From Robert Tulip : Dark Energy Survey as possible model https://www.darkenergysurvey.org/collaboration-and-sponsors/
22:32:45 From Robert Tulip : Keith Paper: Benefits of Albedo Research https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2022.2091509
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting – Mon Sep 30th
Agenda
John M – Video from Leon Simons & Elliot Jacobsen: Aerosols and rapid climate change
John M – Update on Rebrighten
Herb – HPAC strategy update
Clive – Recent video with Robert Chris: Decarbonisation is not Enough: https://youtu.be/r5QQ7otS5Ds
Chris V - New Scientist article on Real-Ice to restore Arctic ice.
Jon – Review AI generated images
Recording: https://youtu.be/96Ys7618RxE?t=909
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
John Nissen
Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk
Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
USA: 1 hr later, until your clocks change.
Aus: now another 1 hr later – 8am.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 28th Oct (Aus: Tue 29th Oct, 8am AEDT)
• 2pm PDT (USA)
• 5pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting
Agenda
Bruce Parker – Inventory of climate feedbacks,
Robert T – Albedo governance,
Clive, Franz – update
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYeg7OLQD-s&t=691s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:19:44 From Gregory Slater : Does Hansen include something like this spreadsheet in his paper(s)?
21:20:50 From Gregory Slater : There is really no account of feedbacks in climate simulations?
21:23:32 From Gregory Slater : Bruce: Please define what you mean by 'feedback' and how do you calculate it without a climate model that predicts a profile of growing T and its consequent effect on these feedback numbers?
21:41:04 From Bru Pearce : Harsh Realities.pdf (apollo-gaia.org) 2015 David Wasdell's work
21:42:38 From Bruce Parker : Links to my analyses:
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/Questions for Climate Scientists.pdf
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/GHG emissions from natural feedbacks.pdf
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/CO2BudgetAndNaturalFeedbacks.pdf
Links to my analyses:
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/Questions for Climate Scientists.pdf
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/GHG emissions from natural feedbacks.pdf
https://www.chesdata.com/documents/CO2BudgetAndNaturalFeedbacks.pdf
22:09:16 From Manna Jo Greene : I have mentioned this before, but there are communication experts skilled in building consensus that can be very helpful within the proposed International Albedo Union
22:09:41 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Reacted to I have mentioned t G... with "👍"
22:10:02 From Manna Jo Greene : Reacted to I have mentioned thi... with "👍"
22:10:05 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Sociocratic consent, yes.
22:10:18 From Manna Jo Greene : Reacted to Sociocratic consent,... with "👍"
22:16:47 From Bru Pearce : By all I have to leave.
22:23:22 From John Macdonald : It will be easier to get the international Albedo Union off the ground if it is limited to tropospheric and surface reflection only.
22:24:35 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Albedo restoration
22:24:44 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Reacted to It will be easier to... with "👍"
22:31:38 From Robert Tulip : Dark Energy Survey as possible model https://www.darkenergysurvey.org/collaboration-and-sponsors/
22:32:45 From Robert Tulip : Keith Paper: Benefits of Albedo Research https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/14693062.2022.2091509
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting – Mon Sep 30th
Agenda
John M – Video from Leon Simons & Elliot Jacobsen: Aerosols and rapid climate change
John M – Update on Rebrighten
Herb – HPAC strategy update
Clive – Recent video with Robert Chris: Decarbonisation is not Enough: https://youtu.be/r5QQ7otS5Ds
Chris V - New Scientist article on Real-Ice to restore Arctic ice.
Jon – Review AI generated images
Recording: https://youtu.be/96Ys7618RxE?t=909
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Tom Goreau
I was not at this meeting, so hesitate to comment on the “There is really no account of feedbacks in climate simulations?” discussion, but there seem to be serious misunderstandings about feedbacks.
They cannot all be lumped together because each works on its own separate time scale on different parameters, so basically each has to have its own physical model.
Only a few of these feedbacks are well enough understood to be confidently and accurately modelled, such as the albedo feedback.
The rest mostly involve biological feedbacks whose intensities and durations are uncertain, so either they are badly modelled parametrically (like clouds), or ignored completely as too complicated (like most biogeochemical feedbacks on GHGs).
And all of them are likely to be strongly non-linear, making most models intrinsically unreliable for the most important details (How hot? How wet? How high the sea level? etc….)
--
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Tom Goreau
Let me add to that.
We know from the amplitude of glacial-interglacial temperature changes that changes in heat from solar radiation caused by earth’s orbital variations are amplified many times by the Earth’s climate system feedbacks, but only a small part of these feedbacks are well known enough to be modelled, so the majority of the feedback mechanisms are dealt with inadequately or not at all.
In other words, it’s very unwise to make specific predictions, especially about the future!
But we know that we have yet to feel the impacts of most feedbacks, so the results will be much greater than we can imagine!
Oeste
To Dennis Garrity
Dear Dennis
In the NOAC meeting from yesterday I stated that the until now hidden ability of forests by their permanently produced weathering activity has not been studied by the forest experts until now. I have not found any literature about this. Forests as CO2 captors are only assessed with regard of their ability to produce organic substance in form of wood. An effect of the ash elements on the carbon cycle which are permanently produced by trees has not been part of an assessment in this sense. I tried to find reference literature to this aspect but failed.
Leaves and needles are permanently produced by forests. They contain ~10 times more Ca, Mg and K than the trees wood. These photosynthesis organs are provided to the environment and represent an enormous CO2 captor: Surely the mass of leaves produced by a virgin forest tree during its hundrets of years lifetime is much larger than the mass of its wood production. The CO2 captor in the leaves after their organic carbon has gone by the rotting oxidation is their ash content: Ca, Mg and K alkalines. This alkaline substance fix CO2 sustainability by their alkalinity as hydrogen carbonate.
According to assessments of forest experts the production of wood and its harvesting for producing building substance is claimed as a source of sustainable CO2 catchment. To my opinion most tree harvesting in forests is just the opposite of this because tree harvesting kills also the extended rhizosphere of these old trees. I think to old beech and oak trees which are frequent in German forests. Their deep and extended rhizospheres contain organs and microbial symbionts which do the dissolution of silicates and even quartz to provide the trees with said ash and trace elements they need. This silicate dissolution for provision of earth alkalines, potassium, phosphate and trace elements the rhizosphere microbes need to dissolve much more silicate substance than at the end becomes delivered to the trees. Thus the ash content in the leaves is only the tip of the iceberg while lots of dissolved material stay in the rhizosphere.
Rhizospheres are the natural bicarbonate and clay mineral producing continental weathering machines. To my opimnion sustainability in careful forest harvesting is only possible with those wood-delivering plants or trees which are able to regenerate themselfes by root or stumpshoots. Thus their rhizospheres keep alive. This kind of forest harvesting is well-known from bamboo harvesting and has been practiced also in the wood generation for charcoal production necessary for cast iron fabrication in the medievally Germany.
Microbes developed these very efficient silica and silicate
dissolution ingredients probably before the Archean period. During
their existence they found very efficient silicate dissoluting
complexants. Such an efficient complexant family are polyphenols
especially those with catechol moijeties. Some of these
complexants are unbeated in their dissolution of ferric oxides and
also silicates and titanates as like as enterobactin. The
complexants has been developed as mineral dissolution tools for
driving the microbes own metabolic processes. Microbes do this in
all of their habitats: everywhere where they find three
conditions: oxidants and reductants in an aqueous environment.
Every kind of oxidats are suitable weak oxidants but also oxygen
they can use as well they can use every kind of reductant:
Hydrogen as well as H2S , sugar and also polycyclic aromatics.
Thus we find them in groundwater, polluted groundwater, sediments,
ocean crust, animal bodies, guts and plant rhizospheres. Believe
that we could do weathering in a more economic way than do
microbes is off the track to my opinion.
The transformation of bicarbonate into carbonate preciptate and
organic substances within anaerobic shelf sediments as an origin
of methane and oil deposits belong to one of the activities of the
microbes. Microbes are also able to transform the sediments of
sand and gravel, or diatom sediments into quartzite, quartzite
conglomerate or flint. We find these remnants of microbial
activities as landscape shaping formations on all continents. This
silicic acid precipitation activities is always linked with a
silica, quartz or silicate dissolution which often happens in very
short distances to the precipitation.
--
Tom Goreau
There’s a HUGE literature on this! I have boxes of old books in my basement on the mineral composition of vegetation and litter fall on soils that I have not looked at in 40 years.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
USA: Back to your usual time.
Aus: 8am.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 11th Nov (Aus: Tue 12th Nov, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting - Mon 28th Oct
Agenda
Robert T – Measuring Albedo
Greg S – Potential effect of SAI on methane
- Termination shock ‘bogeyman’
Brian – Reducing aerosol termination shock
Franz – Natural alkalinity from forests is unrecognised.
Rebecca – Rebrighten Abstract accepted – bottom up governance of SRM
Robert T – Metta’s town hall was hijacked.
Recording: https://youtu.be/XSC3zcSMVo8?t=1586
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:21:21 From Sev Clarke : Whilst I criticise Gigablue’s solution https://www.gigablue.co/about , their analysis of the climate problem in their patent https://patents.google.com/patent/US8033879B2/en is praiseworthy. Should we discuss it?
21:23:11 From Sev Clarke : at the next meeting
21:36:12 From Sev Clarke : So the atmosphere has huge heat rivers in it taking the heat in moisture to the poles
21:36:27 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Replying to "So the atmosphere ha..."
Exactly
21:38:11 From Bruce Parker : Radiative Heating of an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean June 2019
Here we use satellite observations to estimate the amount of solar energy that would be added in the worst-case scenario of a complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice throughout the sunlit part of the year. Assuming constant cloudiness, we calculate a global radiative heating of 0.71 W/m2 relative to the 1979 baseline state. This is equivalent to the effect of one trillion tons of CO2 emissions. These results suggest that the
additional heating due to complete Arctic sea ice loss would hasten global
warming by an estimated 25 years. https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019GL082914
21:39:51 From Bruce Parker : Arctic Ice Cover, Ice Thickness and Tipping Points
Published: 19 January 2012
If the Arctic were ice-free for one month a year plus associated ice-extent decreases in other months then, without taking cloud changes into account, the global impact would be about 0.2°C of warming. If there were no ice at all during the months of sunlight, the impact would close to 0.5°C of global warming.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13280-011-0222-9
21:40:27 From Robert Tulip & Rebecca Bishop : Reacted to "Arctic Ice Cover, Ic..." with 👍
21:40:33 From Bruce Parker : Earth's Sea Ice Radiative Effect From 1980 to 2023 17 July 2024
Disappearing sea ice is therefore amplifying climate change by causing Earth to absorb roughly an additional 0.3 W m−2 of solar power for each degree Celsius of global warming, a feedback that is stronger than that simulated by most climate models.
The Arctic sea ice radiative effect has weakened at 0.04–0.05 W m−2decade−1, or by about 24%, since 1980
The planetary cooling effect of global sea ice was about 0.25 W m−2 (14%) weaker during 2016–2023 than during 1980–1988
We estimate that the global sea ice albedo feedback was 0.24–0.38 W m−2 K−1 during 1980–2023.
https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109608
21:40:49 From Bru Pearce : Albedo (1 month) | NASA
21:42:54 From Bruce Parker : Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models’ sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September under all scenarios considered. These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the Arctic, and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-38511-8
21:44:02 From Robert Tulip & Rebecca Bishop : https://news.agu.org/press-release/earth-is-dimming-due-to-climate-change/
21:58:34 From Robert Tulip & Rebecca Bishop : Lovely to see everyone, sorry Robbie and I need to leave early...
22:02:28 From Jesper Pedersen : Reacted to "Lovely to see everyo..." with 👍
22:02:44 From Bruce Parker : If the albedo is adding 1 W/m-2, this results in an additional 1 W/m-2 being absorbed at the Earth's surface (and not being reflected). The Earth's energy imbalance is not a direct measure of albedo but rather a measure of the difference between energy in and energy out. If the EEI is positive (more in than out) the atmosphere is simply unable to absorb enough outgoing short wave radiation to restore the energy balance
22:13:51 From Alf Thomé : Johan Rockstrom
22:14:11 From Alf Thomé : 'Climate Extremes'
22:29:11 From Sev Clarke : Alf, a search does not show the paper.
22:29:23 From Gregory Slater : gotta go. thanks to everyone for not throwing me out....
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting – Mon Oct 14th
Agenda
Bruce Parker – Inventory of climate feedbacks,
Robert T – Albedo governance,
Clive, Franz – update
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYeg7OLQD-s&t=691s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
USA: Back to your usual time (see below).
Aus: 8am.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 11th Nov (Aus: Tue 12th Nov, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
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Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
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Last Meeting - Mon 28th Oct
Agenda
Robert T – Measuring Albedo
Greg S – Potential effect of SAI on methane
- Termination shock ‘bogeyman’
Brian – Reducing aerosol termination shock
Franz – Natural alkalinity from forests is unrecognised.
Rebecca – Rebrighten Abstract accepted – bottom up governance of SRM
Robert T – Metta’s town hall was hijacked.
Recording: https://youtu.be/XSC3zcSMVo8?t=1586
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:21:21 From Sev Clarke : Whilst I criticise Gigablue’s solution https://www.gigablue.co/about , their analysis of the climate problem in their patent https://patents.google.com/patent/US8033879B2/en is praiseworthy. Should we discuss it?
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting – Mon Oct 14th
Agenda
Bruce Parker – Inventory of climate feedbacks,
Robert T – Albedo governance,
Clive, Franz – update
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYeg7OLQD-s&t=691s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Oeste
Hi Clive
If 12 year old kids shall understand the slides some of their
contents need to change. I would propose you provide us with the
slides as they are and you gather our comments and arguments.
Franz
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Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 25th Nov (Aus: Tue 26th Nov, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting
Agenda
Clive – Slides for YouTube video: Climate Action Fundamentals
Jon C - Develop ‘The Ask?’ What would be our ask?
Brian – ARIA bid results - disappointing
Sev - Gigablue ‘Buoyant Flakes’–like solution, has problems, but their rationale is good.
John M – Meeting Prof Ismail Gultepe – More snow in the Arctic
Recording: https://youtu.be/NK4iBmYG5Ck?t=1130
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:28:06 From John Nissen : Is achieving 1.5 relevant, when tipping points already activated?
21:58:04 From VGarnys : Important discussion and ideas. I must go- business calls!
22:12:28 From Sev Clarke : Brian, how do you spell the law?
22:17:08 From Robert Chris : Wright's Law e.g. https://quickonomics.com/terms/wrights-law/
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting – Mon Oct 28th
Agenda
Robert T – Measuring Albedo
Greg S – Potential effect of SAI on methane
- Termination shock ‘bogeyman’
Brian – Reducing aerosol termination shock
Franz – Natural alkalinity from forests is unrecognised.
Rebecca – Rebrighten Abstract accepted – bottom up governance of SRM
Robert T – Metta’s town hall was hijacked.
Recording: https://youtu.be/XSC3zcSMVo8?t=1586
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Oeste
Hi Leslie
So glad you are going on to communicate. I noticed this from your
two emails of 15th November to John Nissen and Soumitra Das. Hence
I still hope that my email to you will become answered at last.
gM-Ingenieurbüro
Tannenweg 2
35274 Kirchhain
Germany
Hi Leslie
Scientific communication lives from an exchange of arguments, informations and questions. It is extreme frustrating after giving a lot of sensitive information which has been asked for and an offer for co-authering a paper and then does not even get an answer.
Yes the last days around the election might have been busy for you and you might have forgotten my email in this troublesome days. But you should know, that I would be glad if I only would get the information from you that my mail has arrived.
Regards
Franz
Am 31.10.2024 um 20:17 schrieb Oeste:
Dear Leslie
Thanks for your interest in my work. It would make me very happy if once these data might be found in a single book or thick paper. But no, they have to be extracted from lots of ordered and messy ordered references and the full story is only in my head. I am chemical engineer and dissolved until my retirement environmental problems of all kind for companies mainly waste air cleaning waste water cleaning and soil and groundwater pollution detection and cleaning.
In this paragraph I will give you a small vision of my ingeneering background in my relation to atmospheric chemistry, my different model of carbon cycling and the huge part of microbes and plants in shaping the life's habitat by microbes. To my opinion it is a necessity to understand the complete history of our environment as to choose the best methods for climate and ecosystem restoration. Geologic history presents us some examples about extinction events which are very helpful for method decision. My knowledge about microbial weathering in oxic and anoxic microbial habitats has been extracted mainly from own private experimental work and geological research work :
After my retirement in 1996 I founded my office and developed a new kind of detection tools for groundwater pollution detection by passive sampling and for localisation of the border line between aerobic and polluted anaerobic zones. Just these border lines are the habitats for aerobic and anaerobic microbes. By this I learned a lot how fast these microbes dissolve and precipitate minerals. I developed for this work microbial resistant textile tapes which I chemically coated with undissovable redox-sensitive minerals of different redox potentials as like as dark-brown manganeous(IV)oxide (pe +10), ochre ferric hydroxide (pe +1), and white barium sulfate (pe -3.5). I mounted these tapes throughout the length of the groundwater test pipes. After 1 month reaction period I took the tapes out and took photos for documentation. Within the reducing milieu of the border line the tape color changed substancial: Brown Mn(IV) oxidized dissolved Fe(II) in the tested groundwater by precipitation of ochre Fe(III) on the tape. Ochre Fe(III) dissolved as Fe(II), S(VI) became reduced to sulfide which reacted with Fe(II) to black FeS. This simple method allowed me centimeter-sharp visible detection of the redox borders in the groundwater aquifer. By lab test of my parallel mounted AC passive samplers I could always reconsiliate the strong correlation of the pollution level with said microbial habitat of the redox border. Yearly repeated control measures showed clearly the retreatment or progress of the redox border and thus allowed decision if decontamination measures are necessary or not.
In parallel I studied the complex mineralogy of Münzenberg, a small town some 50 km north of Frankfurt/M. There I found in gravel and sand pits just the same (fossilized) redox color changes of iron and manganese and as well barite dissolution and precipitation as on my redox tapes. Additional to that in gravel pit I found pronounced quartz dissolutions recesses combined with reduction and adjacent to them silica precipitation in combined with oxidation signs. This made the solution of the cause of these redox phenomens suddenly transparent: these wonderful fossilized remnants made of crystallized baryt, black MnO2 and ochre Fe(III) oxides made obvious, that developed in the contact zone of methane, Sulfide, Fe(II) and Ba containing mineral water with oxic groundwater. In many cases I found sharp and clearly differentiated recesses in well rounded quartzite pebbles which are only millimeters separated from silica precipitates of the uninjured pebble rind. These fossilized redox border remnants show that border lines between reducing and oxidizing milieus may shrink to millimeters. Some of the silica cemented sand sediments showed a similar layered structure like the wonderful gogottes of Fontainebleau near Paris. The presentation of this unique redox geology of Münzenberg is shown by in a special exhibition space in Münzenberg.
The mineral water-groundwater contact zone is obvious because even today groundwater seeps deliver until today salty groundwater in a nearby small river.
These studies directed me to the roots of life in its early existence in the pre-Archean. The only oxidant source then was CO2 in the atmosphere and its equivalent hydrogen carbonate in the ocean. But below the ocean floor and within the ocean there was a rich selection of reductants as like as hydrogen, methane, sulfide, iron(II) and manganese(II). As like as today the origin of these reductants has been the ocean crust: especially the mid-ocean ridges with their upmoving olivine rich peridotite and basalt melt. Olivine reacts with seawater by changing ferrous iron into magnetite by hydrogen generation and by changing the peridotite rock with sea water in the serpentinization reaction to the much more voluminous serpentinite. Hydrogen is contained in the numerous microscopic cracks of the swollen serpentinite.
Probably soon found the early microbes the organic complexants to dig themselfes into the ocean crust rock for consumption of hydrogen. Modern microbes dig by silicate dissolution tunnels into these rocks. Such tunnels are well visible in the mid ocean ridge volcanic glasses. Such fossilized tunnels have also been found in Archean ocean crust rocks. The energy for their metabolism produced by oxidation of hydrogen with bicarbonate is rather low. Even in the Archean microbes found enzymes which allowed them to use solar radiation for oxidizing ferrous iron to ferric iron and to hydrogenate bicarbonate to organic carbon. Probably one of the silicate dissolution enzymes belonged to substances which contain catechol moijeties. Catechol containing substances are also modern tools of microbes. Catechols are also reversible oxidized by ferric iron to quinones. Catechol oxidation could also explain the high magnetite content of the banded iron sediments produced during the archean epoche. This could also be the key to understand the precipitation of silica at the oxidation side of the redox borderline because by the catechol transformation to quinone it gets rid of its complexing ability and gelous silicic acid becomes precipitated. The oxidation of reduced sulfur by quinones to sulfate could also be the explanation of archean barite deposits.
This was the first large step of microbes to increase the energy gain between between oxidant and reductant by use of quinone oxidants instead of bicarbonate; but it should be follwed by some more steps: During the Proterozoic cyanobacteria did the next step by using oxygen producing photosyntesis which again increased the energy output of oxidation reactions for their metabolism. In parallel to the energy output increase the borderline area between oxic and reduces habitat increased from the fractal surface of the ocean crust to the ocean surface and to the sediment surfaces. Probably during the Proterozoic cyanobacteria began to cover continental surfaces which again increased their habitats. All these activities of life increased the consumption of CO2 and also of methane. Thus the surface temperature decreased and induced ice ages. Cyanobacteria and fungi became symbionts and developed lichens. By acting in coordination cyanobacteria or monocellular algae acted successful as multicellular units and produced algae. These became ancestors of plants which acted on the continents.
To gain nutrients this life forms developed roots as means of sugar or other reductant delivering organs as to produce new habitats for microbes. This was the birth of rhizospheres. Microbes which then used these habitats nd did their weathering work at last as symbionts used these habitats and delivered themselfes and the nutrient delivering plants with inorganic nutrients. During the Devonian continents began to cover with forests. This decreased CO2 content of the atmosphere. The weathering activity of these first virgin forests, not their organic C production brought down the CO2. This changed during the following Carboniferous epoche after plants had found the method how to produce a rhizosphere in an anoxic wetland soil with high toxic hydrogen sulfide level. Until today wetland plants do this by pumping oxygen into their roots. This produces a ferric hydroxide layer around the roots which prevents the roots from H2S contact.
Wetland habitats are the origin of coal which is the fossile remnant of wetland plants which are unable to rot within such kind of environment.
Forest rhizosphere induced weathering and coal generating wetland forests are the main driver of the CO2 decrease during the carbonaceous epoche and increased also the oxygen level to concentrations of more than 30 percent. Hence we have a ~100 million years lasting ice ages during late Devonian, throughout Caboniferous until late Permian ages.
Hence we may state that the developement of atmosphere and ocean from reducing to oxic condition conditions has been induced solely by life's weathering and organic carbon production and dumping in sediment layers.
Despite these kind of direct influence on the carbon cycle the weathering products themselfes are of influence: the intense microbial weathering activity on the ocean crust rock produces lots of organic carbon and carbonate precipitation. Recent content of organic biomass is estimated to 10 exp. 17 g which is contained within the habitable ocean crust rock surfaces of 10 exp. 18 m³. According to the low exothermic hydrogen oxidation energy gain from hydrogen carbonate oxidant comparing to the exothermy of the recent hydrogen -oxygen reaction exothermy the early Archean ocean crust biomass probably had been an order of magnitude less than today. The weathering of the ocean crust increases the surfaces of the basalt and peridotite rock thus increasing the reaction surfaces for the serpentinisation reaction by seawater. This enhances the serpentinite generation.
Taking into account the volume of the anoxic shelf sediments, oil, gas and carbon deposit redox border surroundings and the enormous volume of the forest and also smaller plant rhizospheres of the continents as well as the mangrove and seagrass meadow rhizospheres since the Aearly Archean a multiple of the early microbial amount of microbial habitat volume is existent today which delivers much more weathering per habitat m³ than the early life could produce.
According to this weathering increase also the weathering products bicarbonate, clay and ocean crust serpentinite multiplied. You will ask: how can clay and serpentinite influence carbon cycle? Clay sediments contain a lot of absorbed and chemical bound water. Serpentinite rock contains a lot of chemical bound water After their subduction these water transport into the mantle acts as an oxidant to reduced iron compounds and converts them in the hot high pressurized lower mantle to ferric oxides. The mantle convection transport the ferric oxides into the upper mantle. There the ferric oxides oxidize the elemental carbon content into carbonate by generation of ferrous silicates as like as olivine. If the carbonates get into low pressure zones below the mid-ocean ridges they melt and change during ocean floor volcanic eruption to CO2 and basalt silicates. Thus: the more serpentinite and clay sediment is subducted the more CO2 becomes erupted and exhaled.
Despite these additional life and subduction-induced CO2 injection into the atmosphere the bicarbonate and organic C production and their storage as carbonate, coal, bitumen and gas in the continental sediment layers which has escaped the subduction could more than compensate this additional life induced volcanic CO2 delivery. This greenhouse gas decrease provided us with the cooling since the oligocene and the glaciation in the Pleistocene.
This is only a very shortened and abstracted description of some essentials of the paper I am projecting and I did not mention the relations how and where this weathering could help us in the necessary decisions for climate restoration. To my opinion it will find a lot of attention as well as my paper about methane depletion in 2017 wich I did together with my co-authors Renaud de Richter and Tingzhen Ming and which found an enormous number of interest.
Now I go into my 80th year of existence and again I look for a co-author or more. Would you be interested in this? Mention that this paper has numerous facets and you might do on this paper base lots of follow ups with your students.
Cheers, and sorry for my bad German English,
Franz
Am 29.10.2024 um 20:35 schrieb Leslie Field:
Dear Oeste, it’s clear that you know a LOT about trees and climate. Is there a book you could recommend to me to learn more on this important topic? Thanks and best regards, Leslie field , phd, bright ice initiative, stanford adjunct prof
Sent from my iPhone
On Oct 29, 2024, at 8:02 AM, Oeste <oe...@gm-ingenieurbuero.com> wrote:
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 25th Nov (Aus: Tue 26th Nov, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Switzerland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting
Agenda
Clive – Slides for YouTube video: Climate Action Fundamentals
Jon C - Develop ‘The Ask?’ What would be our ask?
Brian – ARIA bid results - disappointing
Sev - Gigablue ‘Buoyant Flakes’–like solution, has problems, but their rationale is good.
John M – Meeting Prof Ismail Gultepe – More snow in the Arctic
Recording: https://youtu.be/NK4iBmYG5Ck?t=1130
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:28:06 From John Nissen : Is achieving 1.5 relevant, when tipping points already activated?
21:58:04 From VGarnys : Important discussion and ideas. I must go- business calls!
22:12:28 From Sev Clarke : Brian, how do you spell the law?
22:17:08 From Robert Chris : Wright's Law e.g. https://quickonomics.com/terms/wrights-law/
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting – Mon Oct 28th
Agenda
Robert T – Measuring Albedo
Greg S – Potential effect of SAI on methane
- Termination shock ‘bogeyman’
Brian – Reducing aerosol termination shock
Franz – Natural alkalinity from forests is unrecognised.
Rebecca – Rebrighten Abstract accepted – bottom up governance of SRM
Robert T – Metta’s town hall was hijacked.
Recording: https://youtu.be/XSC3zcSMVo8?t=1586
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Bru Pearce
As a suggestion for discussion This time, we are the horses: the disruption of labor by humanoid robots
Bru
Pearce
E-mail b...@envisionation.org
Web www.envisionation.org Visit to participate in the Biosphere Restoration Plan by acquiring Empathy Coin options.
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Salcombe, Devon, UK
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John Nissen
Hugo added read.ai meeting notes to the meeting.
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herbertsimmens to Everyone 21:39
https://4terra.eco
https://www.amazon.com/Becoming-Earth-Planet-Came-Life/dp/0593133978/ref=sr_1_1?crid=AMOW17G4IF1B&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.GjTUznkSWbGxg4mZL-siqfWtRggpog3LvLmxh1F2Lvj0gd3xdTdK0PHL3mPXJeO2H8wcxKulw1m5nLMf3vmo0toqEIPszfJca_UsIdpO_jb5vwBYdnrvs0M-0Yw3yKoJPp6KeCI90Qg9vd3qQjbO81IeoxYN7Wk54Gj5TRK7h8BFt73AN3Yj2xDj9n4y7KVnOWPVv99M8gG3A8H3t6Ff2lDn1kdxEeV-kw3Mf3TPmC0.jq-ijIvG3_UjR7qn_UcPK7LngWWafcFJSH8hR2Jy6Bg&dib_tag=se&keywords=becoming+earth&qid=1732570994&sprefix=becoming+ear%2Caps%2C106&sr=8-1
Becoming Earth book link above
Bru Pearce to Everyone 21:47
What we’re working on - ARIA
Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance to Everyone 21:50
Here is our Panama 2-pager https://drive.google.com/file/d/1p-qjpDri-HKVkWOOARjS1qplNFKEq9q9
Ursula Head to Everyone 21:59
Apologies for arriving so late - again.
Bru Pearce to Everyone 21:59
Carbon Nanotube Manufacturer, the World's Largest SWCNT Producer
You to Everyone 22:19
I am going to have to go at 10.30 GMT, so the discussion of the Cryosphere COP will have to wait, but please give me your feedback by responding to my emails.
Jesper Pedersen to Everyone 22:27
Homepagina - Global Irrigation Project
Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance to Everyone 22:30
But the COP’s seem ineffectual too!
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th Dec (Aus: Tue 10th Dec, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting
Agenda
Jon Schull – Ecorestoration Alliance update
Brian – ARIA discouragement feedback – saleability of macroalgae DMS/Isoprene or even connection to MCB. How to convince the reviewer?
John M – MCB driven by renewable energy or endogenous energy - also out of ARIA scope?
Bru – Tony Seba – future technology impacts – e.g. cost of human robot $10/hr by 2030, graphene, etc.
Chris V – www.srm360.com launching tomorrow, supporting an evidence-based discussion of SRM.
John N – Cryosphere COP – What countries might support it?
Jesper – Update on project – cooling by fogging
Recording: https://youtu.be/CwrinSJlkTk?t=1137
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
herbertsimmens to Everyone 21:39
https://4terra.eco
https://www.amazon.com/Becoming-Earth-Planet-Came-Life/dp/0593133978/ref=sr_1_1?crid=AMOW17G4IF1B&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.GjTUznkSWbGxg4mZL-siqfWtRggpog3LvLmxh1F2Lvj0gd3xdTdK0PHL3mPXJeO2H8wcxKulw1m5nLMf3vmo0toqEIPszfJca_UsIdpO_jb5vwBYdnrvs0M-0Yw3yKoJPp6KeCI90Qg9vd3qQjbO81IeoxYN7Wk54Gj5TRK7h8BFt73AN3Yj2xDj9n4y7KVnOWPVv99M8gG3A8H3t6Ff2lDn1kdxEeV-kw3Mf3TPmC0.jq-ijIvG3_UjR7qn_UcPK7LngWWafcFJSH8hR2Jy6Bg&dib_tag=se&keywords=becoming+earth&qid=1732570994&sprefix=becoming+ear%2Caps%2C106&sr=8-1
Becoming Earth book link above
Bru Pearce to Everyone 21:47
What we’re working on - ARIA
Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance to Everyone 21:50
Here is our Panama 2-pager https://drive.google.com/file/d/1p-qjpDri-HKVkWOOARjS1qplNFKEq9q9
Ursula Head to Everyone 21:59
Apologies for arriving so late - again.
Bru Pearce to Everyone 21:59
Carbon Nanotube Manufacturer, the World's Largest SWCNT Producer
John Nissen to Everyone 22:19
I am going to have to go at 10.30 GMT, so the discussion of the Cryosphere COP will have to wait, but please give me your feedback by responding to my emails.
Jesper Pedersen to Everyone 22:27
Homepagina - Global Irrigation Project
Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance to Everyone 22:30
But the COP’s seem ineffectual too!
Hugo Hinrichsen : Hi. Sorry but I have to go, thank you very much for the updates. I’m going to share our last information from the company related with investors. We think now is muck more attractive for you to check. If anyone don’t remember I’m the CEO of Positive Polar www.positivepolar.com
Robert Chris : Have to go. Interesting session. I really like the unpredictability of the path to success being intersected orthogonally by the path the disaster and it just being a matter of chance as to which one we travel.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting – Mon Nov 11th
Agenda
Clive – Slides for YouTube video: Climate Action Fundamentals
Jon C - Develop ‘The Ask?’ What would be our ask?
Brian – ARIA bid results - disappointing
Sev - Gigablue ‘Buoyant Flakes’–like solution, has problems, but their rationale is good.
John M – Meeting Prof Ismail Gultepe – More snow in the Arctic
Recording: https://youtu.be/NK4iBmYG5Ck?t=1130
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th Dec (Aus: Tue 10th Dec, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting
Agenda
Jon Schull – Ecorestoration Alliance update
Brian – ARIA discouragement feedback – saleability of macroalgae DMS/Isoprene or even connection to MCB. How to convince the reviewer?
John M – MCB driven by renewable energy or endogenous energy - also out of ARIA scope?
Bru – Tony Seba – future technology impacts – e.g. cost of human robot $10/hr by 2030, graphene, etc.
Chris V – www.srm360.com launching tomorrow, supporting an evidence-based discussion of SRM.
John N – Cryosphere COP – What countries might support it?
Jesper – Update on project – cooling by fogging
Recording: https://youtu.be/CwrinSJlkTk?t=1137
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
herbertsimmens to Everyone 21:39
https://4terra.eco
https://www.amazon.com/Becoming-Earth-Planet-Came-Life/dp/0593133978/ref=sr_1_1?crid=AMOW17G4IF1B&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.GjTUznkSWbGxg4mZL-siqfWtRggpog3LvLmxh1F2Lvj0gd3xdTdK0PHL3mPXJeO2H8wcxKulw1m5nLMf3vmo0toqEIPszfJca_UsIdpO_jb5vwBYdnrvs0M-0Yw3yKoJPp6KeCI90Qg9vd3qQjbO81IeoxYN7Wk54Gj5TRK7h8BFt73AN3Yj2xDj9n4y7KVnOWPVv99M8gG3A8H3t6Ff2lDn1kdxEeV-kw3Mf3TPmC0.jq-ijIvG3_UjR7qn_UcPK7LngWWafcFJSH8hR2Jy6Bg&dib_tag=se&keywords=becoming+earth&qid=1732570994&sprefix=becoming+ear%2Caps%2C106&sr=8-1
Becoming Earth book link above
Bru Pearce to Everyone 21:47
What we’re working on - ARIA
Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance to Everyone 21:50
Here is our Panama 2-pager https://drive.google.com/file/d/1p-qjpDri-HKVkWOOARjS1qplNFKEq9q9
Ursula Head to Everyone 21:59
Apologies for arriving so late - again.
Bru Pearce to Everyone 21:59
Carbon Nanotube Manufacturer, the World's Largest SWCNT Producer
John Nissen to Everyone 22:19
I am going to have to go at 10.30 GMT, so the discussion of the Cryosphere COP will have to wait, but please give me your feedback by responding to my emails.
Jesper Pedersen to Everyone 22:27
Homepagina - Global Irrigation Project
Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance to Everyone 22:30
But the COP’s seem ineffectual too!
Hugo Hinrichsen : Hi. Sorry but I have to go, thank you very much for the updates. I’m going to share our last information from the company related with investors. We think now is muck more attractive for you to check. If anyone don’t remember I’m the CEO of Positive Polar www.positivepolar.com
Robert Chris : Have to go. Interesting session. I really like the unpredictability of the path to success being intersected orthogonally by the path the disaster and it just being a matter of chance as to which one we travel.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting – Mon Nov 11th
Agenda
Clive – Slides for YouTube video: Climate Action Fundamentals
Jon C - Develop ‘The Ask?’ What would be our ask?
Brian – ARIA bid results - disappointing
Sev - Gigablue ‘Buoyant Flakes’–like solution, has problems, but their rationale is good.
John M – Meeting Prof Ismail Gultepe – More snow in the Arctic
Recording: https://youtu.be/NK4iBmYG5Ck?t=1130
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
rob...@rtulip.net
Clive, I would like to suggest discussion of https://www.researchgate.net/publication/385550908_Safeguarding_the_polar_regions_from_dangerous_geoengineering
(copy also attached)
This new article by 42 academic scientists argues that calls to geoengineer the poles are irresponsible and unethical. I disagree with their views.
The arguments presented in papers such as this have to be rebutted if geoengineering is to gain any political traction.
Regards
Robert Tulip
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rob...@rtulip.net
Reading this new unpublished paper linked in my email below, Siegert et al 2024 on geoengineering the Arctic, I am appalled by its vacuity. Their proposal to ban field research based on impossible ideological commitments is the height of stupidity.
Their paper is appalling in its absence of political realism, and use of rhetoric in the place of analysis. They state “Continuing the current trajectory of fossil fuel consumption and associated global heating is not viable,” and “Rapid reductions in carbon emissions, with net zero emissions by mid-century, will stabilize global temperatures and curb polar changes, protecting the world and future generations from the effects of worst-case high emissions.”
These statements are largely politically irrelevant in the context of the Trump election, which shows their views are repudiated by voters. It is true that heating is not compatible with political and ecological stability, but consumption mitigated by geoengineering may be the only viable antidote to heat. Much analysis (Michaux, Smil, etc) shows net zero by 2050 would only be possible with demolition of the world economy, and so will not be politically acceptable or feasible, barring major sudden technological breakthroughs.
The baseline for discussion of geoengineering should be that emissions are expected to increase over coming decades, not decrease. As such, analysing geoengineering against a fantasy alternative of rapid decarbonisation is a useless exercise. Their conclusion that “the international community does seem to be able to rapidly converge on reducing carbon emissions, which is doable and undisputedly beneficial” could only be presented from within a hermetically sealed ideological bubble of groupthink.
Some initial criticisms of their SAI section.
- SAI and MCB in the tropics would cool the poles through both atmospheric and ocean heat transfer, but they ignore that, and instead wrongly contend that SAI would need a highly specific deployment to have significant impact in polar regions.
- They say SAI would only have discernible effects over 20 years, right after observing that Pinatubo had immediate large cooling effect.
- They assert that polar regions are less responsive to aerosol injection during sunlit periods because of their lower insolation and higher albedo produced by ice and snow, ignoring that the poles have higher insolation than the equator in summer, and that natural albedo is collapsing.
- Their discussion of Brewer-Dobson circulation ignores that polar SAI might only be a test exercise for subsequent tropical SAI.
- Their discussion of termination shock ignores the likelihood that SAI deployment would have major commercial and popular constituencies of support due to the benefits of cooler weather.
- Their discussion of extended languid deployment timescales over decades lacks urgency, with the WW2 Manhattan Project achieved in three years a better comparator.
- Calling finance an obstacle is laughable when governments are throwing trillions at decarbonisation for minimal climate impact. The proper context for finance options is cooling return on investment, where higher albedo is drastically cheaper than decarbonisation.
- Calling governance an obstacle is only true because people like them generate spurious alarm and spread misinformation.
- Their assertion that establishing an international albedo organisation to rebrighten the planet “would take far longer than the implementation of available actions to strengthen greenhouse gas emission reductions and engage transformative adaptation” is nothing but adversely motivated political speculation, and empirically absurd to boot.
- Comparing SAI to acid rain from coal has an order of magnitude difference that they ignore, preferring instead to spread baseless alarm.
- Their discussion of acidification fails to mention possible mitigation methods such as olivine, or that SAI could slow the large CO2 release from permafrost.
- Their point about possible ozone depletion is important but contested.
Overall, the main takeout from this paper may be the loss of trust among the general public toward the scientific community, due to the use of motivated political reasoning by scientists instead of objective analysis. Sunlight reflection is necessary, but highly complex. Ideological arguments that are grounded in unrealistic calls for economic transformation do not help. What is needed instead is work to enable incremental field research to optimise geoengineering deployment strategies, ensuring that possible harms, such as lack of hemispheric balance, can be prevented, and enabling a portfolio of methods to maximise benefits.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/096f01db4a26%24e2b6b900%24a8242b00%24%40rtulip.net.
rob...@rtulip.net
I shared comments in the email below, in response to German climate researcher Jan Umsonst who sent me Siegert et al 2024 as a supposed devastating critique of SRM. The NOAC meeting yesterday had a long discussion about it, which will be available soon from Clive.
Jan wrote a critique of my comments. I have now sent him the following response to his defence of this preprint.
Dear Jan
Thank you for your replies. However, you have not engaged with my comments. I made a number of specific criticisms of Siegert et al which justify my observation that it is a highly biased political opinion piece rather than a scientific paper.
Your attempt to turn that back on me is just an expression of your personal distaste for geoengineering. The “42 experts” who wrote this preprint are equally wrong, reflecting the pervasive groupthink that contaminates climate policy.
The chapter on Arctic Stratospheric aerosols injection was not well written as you assert. It fails to recognise that many of its claims are widely contested by experts, a basic requirement for a scientific paper. For you to claim it “only states what is obvious” is obviously untrue, in view of the list of errors I provided.
A number of scientific papers contest your assertion that “to cool down the Arctic regions is not really possible via radiation management.” Experts contend that badly managed solar geoengineering could even induce an ice age, which would obviously drastically cool the poles. That is not a real risk if sunlight reflection is well governed. Starting small, its effects could be readily measured and managed, especially considering the modelling capacity of AI. This provides ample safeguards against excess cooling, unless people like Siegert et al prevent the necessary research.
For you to suggest there is “a simple truth: you can't argue with Earths physics” is obviously true. This is more an argument against the cooling power of decarbonisation than against geoengineering. Earth physics shows most warming is already committed from past emissions, whereas cutting new emissions barely slows the rate of heat increase, while doing nothing about accelerating feedbacks. By contrast, sunlight reflection targets the feedbacks, a far more effective prevention strategy.
Your prescription “reduce now emissions as fast as we can do it or we will face certain disaster” just does not make scientific sense. Total historic CO2 emissions amount to 2.5 trillion tonnes. Cutting emissions by a massive amount, say ten gigatonnes per year, is only 0.25% of these historic emissions, or about 0.5% of the current GHG load against the Holocene baseline. It would only marginally slow heat increase and would do nothing to address the system inertia leading to tipping points.
Geoengineering would pull tipping elements away from the precipice, contrary to your claim that it will highly likely only make matters worse.
Sunlight reflection would not “worsen the underlying causes of global warming”. Action on GHGs should proceed, but efforts to achieve an unrealistic energy transition are set up to fail, as Ms Merkel demonstrated. Importantly, darkening of the world through loss of clouds, aerosols, ice and snow is as much an ‘underlying cause’ of warming as GHGs, and is far more readily reversed, by prompt action to restore planetary albedo.
Like many of the claims in Siegert et al, your assertion that “greening of the oceans likely means more methane” is a worst-case scenario that can be avoided. Greening with chemicals such as iron chloride would have a major methane removal effect. Unfortunately papers like Siegert et al conspire to prevent such necessary climate research. It is likely that greening of the oceans will make a far bigger contribution than decarbonisation to restoring the carbon balance.
On your point about sunlight reflection substituting for emission reductions, the problem is one of political power. Supporters of fossil fuels are far more powerful than their opponents. This means there is no prospect of emission reduction, so a substitute is needed to mitigate warming. The global cooperation required to increase albedo is a necessary precursor to effective strategies to manage carbon.
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/0a8e01db4a37%24a624fc20%24f26ef460%24%40rtulip.net.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 6th Jan (Aus: Tue 7th Jan, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting 9th Dec 2024
Agenda
Brian – ARIA bids update
Jon Schull – Crafting the perfect poo - magazine article
Robert T – Paper on Geoengineering the Arctic – big issue
Chris V – Report from European Advisory Committee on SRM
Brian – Long term foundations needed for ocean solutions
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSm6VZRq6bY&t=481s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:01:54 From Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance : IN case you haven’t seen this. https://hakaimagazine.com/news/crafting-the-perfect-poo/
21:10:33 From Sev Clarke : Jon, this url is a phishing threat, so my Norton says
21:12:39 From Robert Tulip : Replying to "Jon, this url is a p..."
21:14:37 From Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance : Yes ok for me too
21:18:16 From Robert Chris : Never heard of sea wheat before but it seems EU is all over it - https://seawheatcost.haifa.ac.il/
21:20:13 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Reacted to Never heard of sea w... with "👍"
21:39:12 From Sev Clarke : If 30 nations are using Buoyant Flakes locally, litigants would not know whom to blame and could not finger any one logically
21:40:19 From Sev Clarke : Ditto MCB
21:41:36 From Robert Chris : Moonshot had no geopolitical dimension other than US being first.
21:42:25 From Sev Clarke : Covid?
21:47:58 From Sev Clarke : Are we to give the NOAC meeting a miss on Dec 24?
21:49:26 From j c : Reacted to "Are we to give the N..." with 👎
21:50:48 From j c : Replying to "Are we to give the N..." Aren't delay of climate solution advances for holidays a form of Business as Usual?
22:00:55 From Sev Clarke : NOAC could probably not handle tens of thousands of participants
22:05:43 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Statement from Vanuatu - Statement from Vanuatu: Why a Non-Use Mechanism on Solar Geoengineering is urgently needed - Solar Geoengineering Non-Use Agreement
22:06:36 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : EU experts report - Solar radiation modification – Scientific Advice Mechanism
22:14:56 From Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance : “Help nature heal itself” is harder to resist than “do as nature does” (which does indeed include mass extinctions).
22:15:13 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Agreed
22:24:49 From Robert Chris : Acting locally everywhere to have global impact sounds great but we need to understand how this translates in shifting the EEI in favour of cooling.
22:27:58 From Herb Simmens : The Good Ancestor by Roman Krznaric
22:31:54 From Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance : What do you think of Western Civilization, Mr. Gandhi?
I think it would be a very good idea.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting – Mon Nov 25th
Agenda
Jon Schull – Ecorestoration Alliance update
Brian – ARIA discouragement feedback – saleability of macroalgae DMS/Isoprene or even connection to MCB. How to convince the reviewer?
John M – MCB driven by renewable energy or endogenous energy - also out of ARIA scope?
Bru – Tony Seba – future technology impacts – e.g. cost of human robot $10/hr by 2030, graphene, etc.
Chris V – www.srm360.com launching tomorrow, supporting an evidence-based discussion of SRM.
John N – Cryosphere COP – What countries might support it?
Jesper – Update on project – cooling by fogging
Recording: https://youtu.be/CwrinSJlkTk?t=1137
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 6th Jan (Aus: Tue 7th Jan, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting 9th Dec 2024
Agenda
Brian – ARIA bids update
Jon Schull – Crafting the perfect poo - magazine article
Robert T – Paper on Geoengineering the Arctic – big issue
Chris V – Report from European Advisory Committee on SRM
Brian – Long term foundations needed for ocean solutions
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSm6VZRq6bY&t=481s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:01:54 From Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance : IN case you haven’t seen this. https://hakaimagazine.com/news/crafting-the-perfect-poo/
21:10:33 From Sev Clarke : Jon, this url is a phishing threat, so my Norton says
21:12:39 From Robert Tulip : Replying to "Jon, this url is a p..."
21:14:37 From Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance : Yes ok for me too
21:18:16 From Robert Chris : Never heard of sea wheat before but it seems EU is all over it - https://seawheatcost.haifa.ac.il/
21:20:13 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Reacted to Never heard of sea w... with "👍"
21:39:12 From Sev Clarke : If 30 nations are using Buoyant Flakes locally, litigants would not know whom to blame and could not finger any one logically
21:40:19 From Sev Clarke : Ditto MCB
21:41:36 From Robert Chris : Moonshot had no geopolitical dimension other than US being first.
21:42:25 From Sev Clarke : Covid?
21:47:58 From Sev Clarke : Are we to give the NOAC meeting a miss on Dec 24?
21:49:26 From j c : Reacted to "Are we to give the N..." with 👎
21:50:48 From j c : Replying to "Are we to give the N..." Aren't delay of climate solution advances for holidays a form of Business as Usual?
22:00:55 From Sev Clarke : NOAC could probably not handle tens of thousands of participants
22:05:43 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Statement from Vanuatu - Statement from Vanuatu: Why a Non-Use Mechanism on Solar Geoengineering is urgently needed - Solar Geoengineering Non-Use Agreement
22:06:36 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : EU experts report - Solar radiation modification – Scientific Advice Mechanism
22:14:56 From Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance : “Help nature heal itself” is harder to resist than “do as nature does” (which does indeed include mass extinctions).
22:15:13 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Agreed
22:24:49 From Robert Chris : Acting locally everywhere to have global impact sounds great but we need to understand how this translates in shifting the EEI in favour of cooling.
22:27:58 From Herb Simmens : The Good Ancestor by Roman Krznaric
22:31:54 From Jon Schull, EcoRestoration Alliance : What do you think of Western Civilization, Mr. Gandhi?
I think it would be a very good idea.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting – Mon Nov 25th
Agenda
Jon Schull – Ecorestoration Alliance update
Brian – ARIA discouragement feedback – saleability of macroalgae DMS/Isoprene or even connection to MCB. How to convince the reviewer?
John M – MCB driven by renewable energy or endogenous energy - also out of ARIA scope?
Bru – Tony Seba – future technology impacts – e.g. cost of human robot $10/hr by 2030, graphene, etc.
Chris V – www.srm360.com launching tomorrow, supporting an evidence-based discussion of SRM.
John N – Cryosphere COP – What countries might support it?
Jesper – Update on project – cooling by fogging
Recording: https://youtu.be/CwrinSJlkTk?t=1137
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 20th Jan (Aus: Tue 21st Jan, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting – 6th Jan 2025
Agenda
Clive – Separated Climate Forcings video proposal
Jon C – Imagery on approaches to Climate Triad
John M – Nanobubbles – ocean whitening
Ron B – Urgent cooling – Response group meeting
Greg S – Problematic modelling of near-term temp rise trending
John N – Scary stories on Sea Level Rise affecting Gulf refineries
Rebecca – Thermodynamic geoengineering – new version
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YB-L2_y4uMA&t=920s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:33:18 From John Nissen : Forcing data often doesn't separate off the black body radiation which rises with temperature and counters the thermal radiation absorption by GHGs.
21:33:31 From JCole : who has a management role for the NOAC.info website? I would like to help.
21:46:46 From John Nissen : Good point, Greg, that cooling immediately reduces misery.
22:15:27 From Robert Tulip : Excellent Dan Miller presentation on collapse of cloud reflectivity as missing warming factor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suFZb2ViHoA
22:16:24 From Gregory Slater : Replying to "Excellent Dan Miller..." Thanks!
22:18:57 From Ron Baiman : One interesting nit on cooling trends in the late 90's early 2000's hiatus in warming (slower rate of warming) that I think has been at least partially attributed to ocean currents causing downwelling of hot surface waters - which relates to Jim Baird's OTEC methods.
22:24:24 From Robert Tulip : I will be in London from 24 Jan to 2 Feb if anyone wants to catch up.
22:25:11 From Clive Elsworth to Robert Tulip(direct message) : Would be good
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting 9th Dec 2024
Agenda
Brian – ARIA bids update
Jon Schull – Crafting the perfect poo - magazine article
Robert T – Paper on Geoengineering the Arctic – big issue
Chris V – Report from European Advisory Committee on SRM
Brian – Long term foundations needed for ocean solutions
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSm6VZRq6bY&t=481s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Tom Goreau
Meta Moves to End Fact-Checking Program
Meta said it would stop using fact checkers and instead rely on Facebook and Instagram users to add notes or corrections to posts. The move is likely to please the Trump administration.
I don’t use Facebook, and nor should anybody who values facts over fiction, truth over lies…………..
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Karen Juster Hecht
~~~~~
“the climate emergency is a race we are losing,
but it is a race we can win” ~~ A. Guterres, U.N. Sec Gen.
La Casita Azul de Paz
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 20th Jan (Aus: Tue 21st Jan, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting – 6th Jan 2025
Agenda
Clive – Separated Climate Forcings video proposal
Jon C – Imagery on approaches to Climate Triad
John M – Nanobubbles – ocean whitening
Ron B – Urgent cooling – Response group meeting
Greg S – Problematic modelling of near-term temp rise trending
John N – Scary stories on Sea Level Rise affecting Gulf refineries
Rebecca – Thermodynamic geoengineering – new version
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YB-L2_y4uMA&t=920s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:33:18 From John Nissen : Forcing data often doesn't separate off the black body radiation which rises with temperature and counters the thermal radiation absorption by GHGs.
21:33:31 From JCole : who has a management role for the NOAC.info website? I would like to help.
21:46:46 From John Nissen : Good point, Greg, that cooling immediately reduces misery.
22:15:27 From Robert Tulip : Excellent Dan Miller presentation on collapse of cloud reflectivity as missing warming factor https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suFZb2ViHoA
22:16:24 From Gregory Slater : Replying to "Excellent Dan Miller..." Thanks!
22:18:57 From Ron Baiman : One interesting nit on cooling trends in the late 90's early 2000's hiatus in warming (slower rate of warming) that I think has been at least partially attributed to ocean currents causing downwelling of hot surface waters - which relates to Jim Baird's OTEC methods.
22:24:24 From Robert Tulip : I will be in London from 24 Jan to 2 Feb if anyone wants to catch up.
22:25:11 From Clive Elsworth to Robert Tulip(direct message) : Would be good
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting 9th Dec 2024
Agenda
Brian – ARIA bids update
Jon Schull – Crafting the perfect poo - magazine article
Robert T – Paper on Geoengineering the Arctic – big issue
Chris V – Report from European Advisory Committee on SRM
Brian – Long term foundations needed for ocean solutions
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSm6VZRq6bY&t=481s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
John Nissen
Thanks John
This is the data I downloaded that you saw this evening: https://github.com/ClimateIndicator/forcing-timeseries/blob/main/output/ERF_best_1750-2023.csv
Do you have a line of figures I could add for years 1750 – 2023, or a way to calculate them?
Clive
From: John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>
Sent: 20 January 2025 22:47
To: Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk
Subject: Re: Reminder: The next NOAC meeting is tomorrow: Monday 20th Jan (Aus: Tue 21st Jan, 8am AEDT)
Hi Clive, this is the only chat I got, as I started picking up late. The last point is for you, for your diagrams.
Gregory Slater to Everyone 21:16
In the 60's, there used to be a popular 'hippy' bumpersticker (predominantly seen on old VW buses): "Live Simply That Others May Simply Live".....
You to Everyone 21:41
Gene, when you say "warming", sometimes you seem to be talking about warming power (W/m2) and sometimes about temperature. Can you clarify?
Sev Clarke to Everyone 21:59
Gene, you see the forest, they only see the trees
jon to Everyone 22:03
www.globalwarming-sowhat.com
Ron Baiman to Everyone 22:06
The reluctance to include "low confidence" that is effects that don't pass the 5% significance hurdle in models is I believe a very important methodology point that Mike MacCracken and others have stressed - including in the HPAC cooling paper. We a risk aversion methodology not a central tendency approach to this very practical existential risk to human civilization!
Gregory Slater 22:09
Thanks.
You 22:14
😊
Gene Fry 22:16
warming = temperature almost every time I use it. W/sq m I occasionally call forcing, something that causes warming. Sorry iff I am imprecise at times.
Seeing the forest is an excellent way to put what I am doing / seeing.
You to Everyone 22:31
Clive, can you add in the thermal output from black body radiation, after masking by GHGs, which increases as 4th power of temperature?
Cheers, John
Jim Baird
This is my take on this in a paper currently in review. I would welcome Mike and Douglas’s thoughts.
The Stefan-Boltzmann law, σ has a value of 5.670374419 × 10−8 watt per square meter per kelvin to the fourth (W / (m2 x K4).81 Although radiative forcing is measured in W/m², temperature (measured in Kelvin or Celsius) is the system's response to that forcing. So, cooling the surface 1.7 degrees would independently get us to something like a potential 6.8 (4 x 1.7) degrees of forcing, which is significant. The question is, is moving heat from the top of the ocean into deep water cooling the surface by reducing short-wave radiation or simply redistributing heat within the climate system and how long is the long-term?
It is the contention of this paper that the answer to the first question is it is the latter; it is a redistribution of heat within the ocean.
TG converts 7.6% of the heat of warming to work and the remaining 92.4% is sent to a depth of 1,000 meters from where it diffuses back to the surface in about 226 years.22 As soon as the original heat resurfaces, the heat conversion process is repeated, in total 12 more times over a span of approximately 2,950 years. Consequently, the annual temperature increase would be about 0.0006°C per year. Additionally, since these years would involve zero emissions and climate respite, the GHG blanket would diminish as atmospheric CO2 is absorbed by the oceans, forests, and the ground. The waste heat from TG heat conversions would therefore be harmlessly dissipated into space.82 Cooling the surface by shifting heat into the oceans would not only cool the Earth’s surface, it would increase the Earth’ albedo by reducing ice loss, and the amount of long-wave radiation emitted back to space.83,84 So, the free energy of TG could in the long run reduce the estimated equilibrium temperature of the Earth’s surface.
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Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 3rd Feb (Aus: Tue 4th Feb, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting: 20 Jan 2025
Agenda
Gene Fry – Presentation on paleoclimate and implications for current climate trajectory
Jon C – NOAC Website – review committee – imagery, update plans
Sev - Have a look at One Percent Brighter website – lots of good material
Clive – Other warming agents add up to the same as CO2
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ift5Rpmds3g&t=1378s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
There was a lot of interest in Gene’s materials. Today Gene sent me this info:
I have posted to my website, www.globalwarming-sowhat.com,
The presentation I made to NOAC yesterday is here: A Look at Earth's Albedo & Temperature.
I have also added back my journal article with many of the details underlying the presentation: Albedo Changes Drive 4.9 to 9.4°C Global Warming by 2400.
Below that is my MS Word document of the same, 2 months before the actual publication. Its Arial font looks bigger, and it is 1-column, not 2-column.
Yesterday, that “PDF” link went to a slideshow by the same name, not the article. We have corrected that mistake. And I think the DOCX version was not there before.
Chat
21:08:29 From Jonathan Cole : www.globalwarming-sowhat.com
21:13:51 From Sev Clarke : https://www.onepercentbrighter.com/p/self-replicating-co2-eating-nanobots
21:16:08 From Gregory Slater : In the 60's, there used to be a popular 'hippy' bumper sticker (predominantly seen on old VW buses): "Live Simply That Others May Simply Live".....
21:23:44 From jon : Reacted to "In the 60's, there u..." with 👍
21:41:19 From John Nissen : Gene, when you say "warming", sometimes you seem to be talking about warming power (W/m2) and sometimes about temperature. Can you clarify?
21:59:52 From Sev Clarke : Gene, you see the forest, they only see the trees
22:03:54 From jon : www.globalwarming-sowhat.com
22:06:34 From Ron Baiman : The reluctance to include "low confidence" that is effects that don't pass the 5% significance hurdle in models is I believe a very important methodology point that Mike MacCracken and others have stressed - including in the HPAC cooling paper. We a risk aversion methodology not a central tendency approach to this very practical existential risk to human civilization!
22:10:03 From Gregory Slater : Replying to "The reluctance to in..."
Thanks.
22:14:25 From John Nissen : Replying to "The reluctance to in..."
😊
22:16:22 From Gene Fry : Replying to "The reluctance to in..."
warming = temperature almost every time I use it. W/sq m I occasionally call forcing, something that causes warming. Sorry iff I am imprecise at times.
22:17:01 From Gene Fry : Replying to "The reluctance to in..."
Seeing he forest is an excellent way to put what I am doing / seeing.
22:31:59 From John Nissen : Clive, can you add in the thermal output from black body radiation, after masking by GHGs, which increases as 4th power of temperature?
22:38:32 From Robert Chris : AR6 WGI Annex III
22:40:20 From Ron Baiman : It seems a question is what is cause and what is effect - what are the critical initial causes susceptible to human intervention?
22:41:05 From Jesper Pedersen : Solar radiation modification: What should Europe’s strategy be? – Scientific Advice Mechanism
22:41:31 From Robert Chris : Replying to "It seems a question ..."
You're thinking in reductionist terms. This is a complex adaptive non-linear system. The questions need to be phrased accordingly.
22:42:19 From Robert Chris : Replying to "It seems a question ..."
Things can be both causes and effects at the same time. That's what feedback is.
22:42:28 From Ron Baiman : Thank you Jesper!
22:43:09 From Jesper Pedersen : Reacted to "Thank you Jesper!" with 👍
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 6th Jan 2025
Agenda
Clive – Separated Climate Forcings video proposal
Jon C – Imagery on approaches to Climate Triad
John M – Nanobubbles – ocean whitening
Ron B – Urgent cooling – Response group meeting
Greg S – Problematic modelling of near-term temp rise trending
John N – Scary stories on Sea Level Rise affecting Gulf refineries
Rebecca – Thermodynamic geoengineering – new version
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YB-L2_y4uMA&t=920s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 3rd Feb (Aus: Tue 4th Feb, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting: 20 Jan 2025
Agenda
Gene Fry – Presentation on paleoclimate and implications for current climate trajectory
Jon C – NOAC Website – review committee – imagery, update plans
Sev - Have a look at One Percent Brighter website – lots of good material
Clive – Other warming agents add up to the same as CO2
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ift5Rpmds3g&t=1378s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
There was a lot of interest in Gene’s materials. Today Gene sent me this info:
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting: 6th Jan 2025
Agenda
Clive – Separated Climate Forcings video proposal
Jon C – Imagery on approaches to Climate Triad
John M – Nanobubbles – ocean whitening
Ron B – Urgent cooling – Response group meeting
Greg S – Problematic modelling of near-term temp rise trending
John N – Scary stories on Sea Level Rise affecting Gulf refineries
Rebecca – Thermodynamic geoengineering – new version
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YB-L2_y4uMA&t=920s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
John Nissen
Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk
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Clive Elsworth
All
You are warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 17th Feb (Aus: Tue 18th Feb, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting: 3 Feb 2025
Agenda
Jesper – Project update on cooling by fogging
Franz – MCB for cooling and methane removal
Robert T – Recap London meetup conversation
John M – Solar thermal spheres
Jon C – NOAC Website - update
Clive – Feedback on proposed video - Cooling is urgent and crucial
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK6GtPJ0-b4&t=1140s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:25:44 From Jonathan Cole : www.jpclimatec.com
21:26:25 From Jonathan Cole : Home Page
21:30:12 From Jonathan Cole : Fantastic Jasper!
21:32:37 From Jesper Pedersen : Reacted to www.jpclimatec.com with 👍
21:33:00 From Jesper Pedersen : Replying to "Fantastic Jasper!"
Thank you Jonathan
21:33:04 From Jesper Pedersen : Reacted to "Fantastic Jasper!" with 👍
21:40:51 From Sev Clarke : https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jpca.4c02981#:~:text=Experimental%20results%20demonstrated%20that%20sprayed,charged%2C%20aligning%20with%20natural%20observations.
21:59:08 From Philip Bogdonoff, Bio4Climate.org : Good to see and meet you all. I have another meeting. I will try to join you at future meetings.
21:59:22 From Jesper Pedersen : Reacted to "Good to see and meet..." with 👍
22:18:30 From Sev Clarke : Might this text help explain the diagram? When you look at our deep blue, marbled planet from space, the first things you may note are the great swirls of cloud bank and the brilliant white of our polar regions. Moving in closer, you may see how the great tropical rainforests make their own clouds and rain from evapotranspiration in successive bands moving inland. Still closer in you may observe the swirling patches of green and turquoise in the oceans that indicate the presence of algal blooms. And by the time you have moved in as close as the tropopause, you should be able to see the white lines of breakers crashing onto the shoreline and even some of the spume brightening some of the open water. What you will probably not perceive, without considerable technical help, are the tiny nanobubbles that slightly brighten the topmost
22:18:48 From Sev Clarke : of the ocean surface because they are simply too small to see with the naked eye and even some microscopes.
What unites all these factors is that they all contribute to cooling the planet by either reflecting more sunlight or else by increasing the outflow of invisible heat energy from it.
It is these natural cooling factors - marine cloud, ice & snow, algae comprising seaweed and phytoplankton, reflective bubbles, ocean evaporation, crop & forest evapotranspiration - all of which can be enhanced by the safe, even mundane, and locally-testable means, which we are about to discuss.
22:19:11 From Sev Clarke : millimetre
22:30:36 From Robert Chris : Sorry, have to go. See you all soon.
22:34:23 From Herb Simmens Climate Emergency Forum : Jim Hansen is giving a webinar tomorrow on his new paper .
22:37:24 From Jonathan Cole to Clive Elsworth(direct message) : great slides Clive!
22:37:39 From Jonathan Cole : great slides Clive!
22:38:12 From Herb Simmens Climate Emergency Forum : Can you put a link to the slices in the chat Clive?
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 20 Jan 2025
Agenda
Gene Fry – Presentation on paleoclimate and implications for current climate trajectory
Jon C – NOAC Website – review committee – imagery, update plans
Sev - Have a look at One Percent Brighter website – lots of good material
Clive – Other warming agents add up to the same as CO2
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ift5Rpmds3g&t=1378s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Clive Elsworth
All
You are ALL warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
If you arrive at the start, you can suggest a topic for discussion. You could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 17th Feb (Aus: Tue 18th Feb, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting: 3 Feb 2025
Agenda
Jesper – Project update on cooling by fogging
Franz – MCB for cooling and methane removal
Robert T – Recap London meetup conversation
John M – Solar thermal spheres
Jon C – NOAC Website - update
Clive – Feedback on proposed video - Cooling is urgent and crucial
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK6GtPJ0-b4&t=1140s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:25:44 From Jonathan Cole : www.jpclimatec.com
21:26:25 From Jonathan Cole : Home Page
21:30:12 From Jonathan Cole : Fantastic Jasper!
21:32:37 From Jesper Pedersen : Reacted to www.jpclimatec.com with 👍
21:33:00 From Jesper Pedersen : Replying to "Fantastic Jasper!"
Thank you Jonathan
21:33:04 From Jesper Pedersen : Reacted to "Fantastic Jasper!" with 👍
21:40:51 From Sev Clarke : https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acs.jpca.4c02981#:~:text=Experimental%20results%20demonstrated%20that%20sprayed,charged%2C%20aligning%20with%20natural%20observations.
21:59:08 From Philip Bogdonoff, Bio4Climate.org : Good to see and meet you all. I have another meeting. I will try to join you at future meetings.
21:59:22 From Jesper Pedersen : Reacted to "Good to see and meet..." with 👍
22:18:30 From Sev Clarke : Might this text help explain the diagram? When you look at our deep blue, marbled planet from space, the first things you may note are the great swirls of cloud bank and the brilliant white of our polar regions. Moving in closer, you may see how the great tropical rainforests make their own clouds and rain from evapotranspiration in successive bands moving inland. Still closer in you may observe the swirling patches of green and turquoise in the oceans that indicate the presence of algal blooms. And by the time you have moved in as close as the tropopause, you should be able to see the white lines of breakers crashing onto the shoreline and even some of the spume brightening some of the open water. What you will probably not perceive, without considerable technical help, are the tiny nanobubbles that slightly brighten the topmost
22:18:48 From Sev Clarke : of the ocean surface because they are simply too small to see with the naked eye and even some microscopes.
What unites all these factors is that they all contribute to cooling the planet by either reflecting more sunlight or else by increasing the outflow of invisible heat energy from it.
It is these natural cooling factors - marine cloud, ice & snow, algae comprising seaweed and phytoplankton, reflective bubbles, ocean evaporation, crop & forest evapotranspiration - all of which can be enhanced by the safe, even mundane, and locally-testable means, which we are about to discuss.
22:19:11 From Sev Clarke : millimetre
22:30:36 From Robert Chris : Sorry, have to go. See you all soon.
22:34:23 From Herb Simmens Climate Emergency Forum : Jim Hansen is giving a webinar tomorrow on his new paper .
22:37:24 From Jonathan Cole to Clive Elsworth(direct message) : great slides Clive!
22:37:39 From Jonathan Cole : great slides Clive!
22:38:12 From Herb Simmens Climate Emergency Forum : Can you put a link to the slices in the chat Clive?
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting: 20 Jan 2025
Agenda
Gene Fry – Presentation on paleoclimate and implications for current climate trajectory
Jon C – NOAC Website – review committee – imagery, update plans
Sev - Have a look at One Percent Brighter website – lots of good material
Clive – Other warming agents add up to the same as CO2
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ift5Rpmds3g&t=1378s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
John Nissen
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I happen to like the ice thickening in thin layers without involving huge ice shields.
I do have a proposal for ice thickening which would be much cheaper than thickening using ice shields.
You to Everyone 21:10
Singapore liveability challenge might like to look at the letter I wrote to the Economist.
Dr Brian von Herzen to Everyone 21:11
Link?
You to Everyone 21:12
I will send a copy to HPAC.
You to Everyone 21:31
At Gregory, we are going to hell without SAI.
Gregory Slater 21:36
Agree John...I'm in favor of it...But it's really been thirty years and we haven't cooled anything...with sai, sev's way, everyone's way... nothing's happened
You 21:37
The economic argument has never been made, hence my letter to the Economist.
Cooling is still seen as letting the FF industry off the hook.
The FF industry might appreciate SRM for letting them off the hook!
You to Everyone 21:45
Good point, Brian, on sea level rise affecting ports around the world and the reinsurance industry.
I want SAI, MCB and sea ice thickening all in parallel.
The numbers are frightening when it comes to lowering the Arctic temperature since cooling power could need to be over 0.5 petawatts or even 1.0 petawatts.
You to Everyone 21:54
Note 1 W/m2 multiplied by area of the planet gives you 0.51 petawatts.
You to Everyone 21:56
Yes, Brian, the rate of warming is doubling, and we show that on our PRAG temperature trajectory diagram.
Dr Brian von Herzen to Everyone 21:57
Please send prag links
You to Everyone 22:00
Sovereign wealth fund needs to pay its pensions - good point Brian.
John Macdonald to Everyone 22:02
Singapore is a great place to work.
Dr Brian von Herzen to Everyone 22:05
I'm sure it is
The political winds...
You to Everyone 22:08
Jon, how about a block of ice the shape of Greenland, dripping water, being shoved back into a deep freezer.
You could show the vicious cycle of warming and melting, if the sunbeam going into the water produces heat to melt the ice from underneath.
You to Everyone 22:15
Yes, Robert C, you could build up to show the feedback.
Then you could add clouds to reduce the sunshine and hence the feedback.
John Macdonald to Everyone 22:18
I like to idea of using the whole globe with additive annotations.
Herb Simmens to Everyone 22:05
Speaking of Bill Gates he is pulling back from his climate philanthropic funding…Hope it’s not in response to our new leader in the US….
Gregory Slater 22:14
Herb, link on that?
Herb Simmens 22:19
Go to Heatmap.news and you’ll see a headline that says Breakthrough Energy is slashing its grant making budget
Gene Fry
Clive Elsworth
All
You are ALL warmly invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 3rd Mar (Aus: Tue 4th Mar, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting: 17 Feb 2025
Agenda
Robert C – How to reconcile two details from Jim Hansen:
- Since 2010 absorbed radiation has increased by 1.7 W /m2
- Outgoing has increased by 0.7
Answer:
- So, Earth’s Energy Imbalance has increased by 1.0 W /m2 (??)
- N.B. (BVH) The total numbers are about twice as much as these. (Robert C said JH said EEI has increased to ~1.0 W /m2)
Brian – Singapore liveability challenge and we could win $1 million for Marine Cloud Rebrightening
Jon C – Best way of visually describing sun reflection by the Earth? Graphic & video generators: e.g. MidJourney video tools,
Greg S – Is it possible to have social justice AND cooling?
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2o0zSnz8iA&t=810s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
John Nissen to Everyone 21:02
I happen to like the ice thickening in thin layers without involving huge ice shields.
I do have a proposal for ice thickening which would be much cheaper than thickening using ice shields.
John Nissen to Everyone 21:10
Singapore liveability challenge might like to look at the letter I wrote to the Economist.
Dr Brian von Herzen to Everyone 21:11
Link?
John Nissen to Everyone 21:12
I will send a copy to HPAC.
John Nissen to Everyone 21:31
At Gregory, we are going to hell without SAI.
Gregory Slater 21:36
Agree John...I'm in favor of it...But it's really been thirty years and we haven't cooled anything...with SAI, Sev's way, everyone's way... nothing's happened
John Nissen 21:37
The economic argument has never been made, hence my letter to the Economist.
Cooling is still seen as letting the FF industry off the hook.
The FF industry might appreciate SRM for letting them off the hook!
John Nissen to Everyone 21:45
Good point, Brian, on sea level rise affecting ports around the world and the reinsurance industry.
I want SAI, MCB and sea ice thickening all in parallel.
The numbers are frightening when it comes to lowering the Arctic temperature since cooling power could need to be over 0.5 petawatts or even 1.0 petawatts.
John Nissen to Everyone 21:54
Note 1 W/m2 multiplied by area of the planet gives John Nissen 0.51 petawatts.
John Nissen to Everyone 21:56
Yes, Brian, the rate of warming is doubling, and we show that on our PRAG temperature trajectory diagram.
Dr Brian von Herzen to Everyone 21:57
Please send PRAG links
John Nissen to Everyone 22:00
Sovereign wealth fund needs to pay its pensions - good point Brian.
John Macdonald to Everyone 22:02
Singapore is a great place to work.
Dr Brian von Herzen to Everyone 22:05
I'm sure it is
The political winds...
John Nissen to Everyone 22:08
Jon, how about a block of ice the shape of Greenland, dripping water, being shoved back into a deep freezer.
John Nissen could show the vicious cycle of warming and melting, if the sunbeam going into the water produces heat to melt the ice from underneath.
John Nissen to Everyone 22:15
Yes, Robert C, John Nissen could build up to show the feedback.
Then John Nissen could add clouds to reduce the sunshine and hence the feedback.
22:26:05 From John Macdonald : I agree completely Sev
22:29:59 From Gregory Slater : Replying to "Speaking of Bill Gat..."
@Herb Simmens Thanks Herb.. will check...
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 3 Feb 2025
Agenda
Jesper – Project update on cooling by fogging
Franz – MCB for cooling and methane removal
Robert T – Recap London meetup conversation
John M – Solar thermal spheres
Jon C – NOAC Website - update
Clive – Feedback on proposed video - Cooling is urgent and crucial
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK6GtPJ0-b4&t=1140s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
John Nissen
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 3rd Mar (Aus: Tue 4th Mar, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting: 17 Feb 2025
Agenda
Robert C – How to reconcile two details from Jim Hansen:
- Since 2010 absorbed radiation has increased by 1.7 W /m2
- Outgoing has increased by 0.7
Answer:
- So, Earth’s Energy Imbalance has increased by 1.0 W /m2 (??)
- N.B. (BVH) The total numbers are about twice as much as these. (Robert C said JH said EEI has increased to ~1.0 W /m2)
Brian – Singapore liveability challenge and we could win $1 million for Marine Cloud Rebrightening
Jon C – Best way of visually describing sun reflection by the Earth? Graphic & video generators: e.g. MidJourney video tools,
Greg S – Is it possible to have social justice AND cooling?
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2o0zSnz8iA&t=810s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
John Nissen to Everyone 21:02
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Prev Meeting: 3 Feb 2025
Agenda
Jesper – Project update on cooling by fogging
Franz – MCB for cooling and methane removal
Robert T – Recap London meetup conversation
John M – Solar thermal spheres
Jon C – NOAC Website - update
Clive – Feedback on proposed video - Cooling is urgent and crucial
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zK6GtPJ0-b4&t=1140s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Ron Baiman
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You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC)" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to healthy-planet-action...@googlegroups.com.
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Robert Chris
Sent: 03 March 2025 22:23
To: Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk <Cl...@endorphinsoftware.co.uk>; healthy-planet-action-coalition <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [HPAC] Reminder, The next NOAC meeting is tomorrow: Monday 3rd Mar (Aus: Tue 4th Mar, 8am AEDT)
H simmens
 | |
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com
On Mar 4, 2025, at 7:06 AM, Robert Chris <robert...@gmail.com> wrote:
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a question,
- highlight an article or video,
- challenge an assumption,
- express an opinion,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- present something,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 17th Mar (Aus: Tue 18th Mar, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PST (USA)
• 4pm EST (USA)
• 9pm GMT (UK)
• 10pm CET (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 8am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/84228103798?pwd=qc8McZXx5crVvSdfv9eCXZeQbFGEAj.1
Meeting ID: 842 2810 3798
Passcode: 314487
Last Meeting: 3rd March 2025
Agenda
Chris V – Recent warming science – inspired from Leon Simons
John M – Shortwave vs Longwave radiation into the ocean.
Jon C – Meer talk pump warm ocean water down – or let it radiate heat out at night?
Robert T – Climate politics
Hugo – Positive Polar update – science expedition cruising
Recording: https://youtu.be/IlXG684ytrc?t=1132
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:38:18 From Robert Tulip : https://substack.com/home/post/p-157611237 A breakdown of the trends within the Earth Energy Imbalance (EEI)
In 2021 a paper was published using CERES data to examine the various energy flows that are causing global warming. Updating to 2024, the analysis forecasts continued accelerating warming. Tom Harris Feb 22, 2025
22:08:29 From Robert Tulip : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FF9dSJEhx1Y
US Secretary for Energy: It's time for reality in our Energy Policy | Chris Wright at ARC 2025
Lomborg – Solar and Wind Expensive https://youtu.be/dN_ARfPY9rY?t=438
22:15:13 From Jesper Pedersen : Here is his book from 2007: Få Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming af Bjorn Lomborg som Paperback bog på engelsk - 9780307741103
22:22:52 From Herb Simmens : 8 million premature deaths from fossil fuels are just fine with the Lombergs of the world as they are not factored tnto the ‘cost’ of electricity.
22:29:55 From Jesper Pedersen : www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2025/56/Analyses/2025s00056.en.PDF
22:30:01 From Hugo Hinrichsen : www.positivepolar.com
22:30:44 From Jesper Pedersen : Replying to www.flsenate.gov/Ses...
Here is the link, where it's stated that SRM is now prohibited in Florida
22:31:16 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Also, see Holly Buck's book about the fossil fuel industry -Ending Fossil Fuels:
Why Net Zero is Not Enough
22:39:10 From Robert Tulip : Replying to "Also, see Holly Buck..."
https://www.amazon.com.au/dp/1839762349
22:40:28 From Hugo Hinrichsen : https://wefunder.com/positivepolar/join
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 17 Feb 2025
Agenda
Robert C – How to reconcile two details from Jim Hansen:
- Since 2010 absorbed radiation has increased by 1.7 W /m2
- Outgoing has increased by 0.7
Answer:
- So, Earth’s Energy Imbalance has increased by 1.0 W /m2 (??)
- N.B. (BVH) The total numbers are about twice as much as these. (Robert C said JH said EEI has increased to ~1.0 W /m2)
Brian – Singapore liveability challenge and we could win $1 million for Marine Cloud Rebrightening
Jon C – Best way of visually describing sun reflection by the Earth? Graphic & video generators: e.g. MidJourney video tools,
Greg S – Is it possible to have social justice AND cooling?
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M2o0zSnz8iA&t=810s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
I will be away for this meeting, and Robert Chris will moderate in my absence. If there are any problems Jon Cole will be there to help.
Robert Chris
Sent: 14 March 2025 23:01
To: 'Brian Von Herzen' <br...@climatefoundation.org>; 'John Nissen' <johnnis...@gmail.com>; 'Sev Clarke' <sevc...@me.com>; 'Healthy Planet Action Coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>
Cc: 'lee mcnair' <dragon...@gmail.com>; ursul...@hotmail.com <ursul...@hotmail.com>; 'Paul Stansell' <paulst...@gmail.com>; jsc...@gmail.com <jsc...@gmail.com>
Subject: [HPAC] Reminder: The next NOAC meeting is soon: Monday 17th Mar (Aus: Tue 18th Mar, 8am AEDT)
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to healthy-planet-action...@googlegroups.com.
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Aus – One hour earlier: 7am.
USA – Back to usual time
I just sent out a new calendar invite for 31st March – 26th October 2025.
Those arriving at the start suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a technical question,
- challenge an assumption,
- present something,
- express an opinion,
- highlight an article or video,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 17th Mar (Aus: Tue 18th Mar, 8am AEDT)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 7am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82585629865?pwd=3a5OcyUvHwPhiUO44Eq06caFvWbhia.1
Meeting ID: 825 8562 9865
Passcode: 236158
Last Meeting: 17th March 2025
Agenda
Franz – Singapore challenge more info from Brian
John – Hugo to report on Positive Polar progress
Tim – Consider creation of clearing house of potential collaborators
Jon – How to get the right aerosols into shipping fuel
Greg – Compare Bruce and Robert’s models
Recording not available.
Chat
Not available.
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 3rd March 2025
Agenda
Chris V – Recent warming science – inspired from Leon Simons
John M – Shortwave vs Longwave radiation into the ocean.
Jon C – Meer talk pump warm ocean water down – or let it radiate heat out at night?
Robert T – Climate politics
Hugo – Positive Polar update – science expedition cruising
Recording: https://youtu.be/IlXG684ytrc?t=1132
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
All
Was kindly hosted by Robert Chris
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a technical question,
- challenge an assumption,
- present something,
- express an opinion,
- highlight an article or video,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 14th Apr (Aus: Tue 15th Apr, 7am AEDT)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 7am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82585629865?pwd=3a5OcyUvHwPhiUO44Eq06caFvWbhia.1
Meeting ID: 825 8562 9865
Passcode: 236158
Last Meeting: 31st Mar 2025
Agenda
Alf – Clarification on Jim Hansen’s recent temp rise
- Warming from Albedo loss in last decade is equivalent to 110 ppm CO2 == 40 years of emissions.
- Mainly from loss of clouds == 7x loss of snow and ice
- From heating feedback
- Loss of shipping aerosols??
Sev – Cooling priorities – fastest bang/buck, acceptable
Chris V – Janos Pastor criticism of Pierrehumbert/Mann Guardian article
- Reduced lightning from reduced shipping emission aerosols
Brian – Unprecedented weather events - Australia
Hugh H - Arctic Repair conference 25th eve - 28th June in Cambridge UK
- The Drop Malmo Sep 15 – 18 (1000 funders)
Bru – Anthropy 25 event feedback
Jon – Update on Clive’s video – Radiative Forcings Visualisation
Hugo – Positive Polar update
Recording: https://youtu.be/QQ8bg3xbmyw?t=899
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:11:17 From Bru Pearce : National Gathering - Anthropy
21:40:20 From Gregory Slater : "NOₓ" (pronounced "N-O-x") is a general term for nitrogen oxides, a family of reactive gases containing nitrogen and oxygen. It includes several compounds, but the two most common and important in atmospheric chemistry are:
🧪 1. Nitric Oxide (NO)
A colorless, odorless gas.
Forms during combustion, especially at high temperatures (e.g., car engines, power plants).
Not very reactive on its own, but becomes important in air pollution when it reacts further.
🧪 2. Nitrogen Dioxide (NO₂)
🌩️ Other, less common NOₓ compounds:
N₂O (Nitrous oxide): Not usually grouped with NOₓ in pollution discussions—it’s a greenhouse gas, not a major smog contributor.
N₂O₃, N₂O₄, N₂O₅: Higher oxides of nitrogen, seen in some industrial or atmospheric conditions but much less common.
21:50:49 From Robert Tulip : The value of information about solar geoengineering and the two-sided cost of bias
Anthony R. Harding, Mariia Belaia & David W. Keith
https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2091509
21:54:00 From Bruce : Re question about albedo decline due to reduction in northern hemisphere snow cover extent – Peter Wadhams is the best source.
In ChatGPT – ask “peter wadhams albedo decline due to reduction in northern hemisphere snow cover extent”
21:54:05 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Solar Geoengineering: A conversation we cannot afford to ignore - https://substack.com/home/post/p-159250559
The World Regulated Sulfur in Shipping − Then the Lightning Stopped - https://medium.com/the-new-climate/the-world-regulated-sulfur-in-shipping-and-the-lightning-stopped-654d185626d6 Original paper https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/2937/2025/
22:11:46 From Alf Thomé : Australia's (historical) plans to build an inland sea. YouTube. See below link. Alf
22:11:58 From Alf Thomé : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TARxT6lAn_g
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 17th March 2025
Was kindly hosted by Robert Chris
Agenda
Franz – Singapore challenge more info from Brian
John – Hugo to report on Positive Polar progress
Tim – Consider creation of clearing house of potential collaborators
Jon – How to get the right aerosols into shipping fuel
Greg – Compare Bruce and Robert’s models
Recording: https://youtu.be/OlLjFaPVQFw?t=513
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a technical question,
- challenge an assumption,
- present something,
- express an opinion,
- highlight an article or video,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 14th Apr (Aus: Tue 15th Apr, 7am AEDT)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 6am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start can suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a technical question,
- challenge an assumption,
- present something,
- express an opinion,
- highlight an article or video,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 28th Apr (Aus: Tue 29th Apr)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 6am Tue AEDT (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82585629865?pwd=3a5OcyUvHwPhiUO44Eq06caFvWbhia.1
Meeting ID: 825 8562 9865
Passcode: 236158
Last Meeting: 14th April 2025
Agenda
Graeme Taylor – Paper : Introducing a realistic climate strategy – request for journal reviewers
Greg – What testing is being done on Ocean Iron Fertilization?
Clive E – Feedback on visuals with climate numbers
Alf – How to engage new member activists?
Greg S – Why are kids uninterested in cooling the Earth?
Jon C – Who’s really responsible for solving the climate crisis?
Recording: https://youtu.be/1qu-hXRjGk8?t=792
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:05:38 From Graeme Taylor : "A realistic climate strategy" is now available as a preprint on
EarthArXiv: https://doi.org/10.31223/X5QQ86
21:31:12 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Cox et al 2025 Carbon removal beyond the trees - https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02226-z
21:54:52 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : NASEM 2022 A Research Strategy for Ocean Carbon Dioxide Removal and Sequestration - https://www.nationalacademies.org/our-work/a-research-strategy-for-ocean-carbon-dioxide-removal-and-sequestration
ExOIS Exploring Ocean Iron Solutions - https://oceaniron.org/
22:28:03 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Marine Biomass vs temperature slide 7 https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1bE2TqCLyvzKcsRcikP97dX7xR74gpXqnxQLQjJNK1Sc/edit?usp=drivesdk
22:30:38 From Gregory Slater : since nobody can get 'cooling'-related papers published in refereed journals, are there any 'cooling' journals?
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 31st Mar 2025
Agenda
Alf – Clarification on Jim Hansen’s recent temp rise
- Warming from Albedo loss in last decade is equivalent to 110 ppm CO2 == 40 years of emissions.
- Mainly from loss of clouds == 7x loss of snow and ice
- From heating feedback
- Loss of shipping aerosols??
Sev – Cooling priorities – fastest bang/buck, acceptable
Chris V – Janos Pastor criticism of Pierrehumbert/Mann Guardian article
- Reduced lightning from reduced shipping emission aerosols
Brian – Unprecedented weather events - Australia
Hugh H - Arctic Repair conference 25th eve - 28th June in Cambridge UK
- The Drop Malmo Sep 15 – 18 (1000 funders)
Bru – Anthropy 25 event feedback
Jon – Update on Clive’s video – Radiative Forcings Visualisation
Hugo – Positive Polar update
Recording: https://youtu.be/QQ8bg3xbmyw?t=899
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start can suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a technical question,
- challenge an assumption,
- present something,
- express an opinion,
- highlight an article or video,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 28th Apr (Aus: Tue 29th Apr)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start can suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a technical question,
- challenge an assumption,
- present something,
- express an opinion,
- highlight an article or video,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 12th May (Aus: Tue 13th May)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82585629865?pwd=3a5OcyUvHwPhiUO44Eq06caFvWbhia.1
Meeting ID: 825 8562 9865
Passcode: 236158
Last Meeting: 28th Apr 2025
Agenda
Clive – Feedback on radiative forcing slides
Robert T – Nanobubbles
Clive – Tropospheric ozone
Robert T – Attack on ARIA
Hugo – PositivePolar update
Alf – Advice on AI media production
Recording: https://youtu.be/wXfJ-ivha_E?t=1278
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:06:53 From Hugo Hinrichsen, CEO Positive Polar : https://wefunder.com/positive.polar/
21:16:45 From Robert Tulip : "High Risk British Research" crazy attack on ARIA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eRiTbpMPThU Dr John Campbell 3 million subscribers SRM is "daylight robbery"
21:20:53 From Jonathan Cole : Replying to ""High Risk British R..." right: calls it "daylight robbery" all for a triggering. unbelievable for a medical doctor
21:23:25 From Jonathan Cole : running reaction: yeast comparison, clever.
21:24:22 From Jonathan Cole : like the "they miss " in red great
21:25:01 From Jonathan Cole : great Jim H picture. very likeable
21:25:19 From Sev Clarke : Mass extinction has already begun
21:26:05 From Jonathan Cole : perhaps, geoengineering IS climate repair...
21:26:39 From Jonathan Cole : decadal is a fun word, USA students wont know it.
21:26:45 From Doug Grandt : I’ve arrived at my town meet … got to go … good to see you all
21:27:49 From Jonathan Cole : great honesty about passing 1.5 limit. get the word out!
21:28:25 From Jonathan Cole : maybe nearest Past three rather than near...
21:28:37 From Jonathan Cole : nearest
21:30:26 From Jonathan Cole : causing another ice age.... feeds into crazy theories that that is SRMs goal
21:33:34 From Jonathan Cole : startling that the downward heat from clouds is more watts per day than from the sun.
21:47:41 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Clive, you might find this paper interesting -Reconciling Earth's growing energy imbalance with ocean warming - Reconciling Earth's growing energy imbalance with ocean warming - IOPscience
21:47:43 From Sev Clarke : We are halfway through our time. Perhaps it is time we moved on
22:18:16 From Hugo Hinrichsen, CEO Positive Polar : https://wefunder.com/positive.polar/
22:20:01 From Robert Tulip : Dan Miller Podcast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8o4Y6FPgNHY
In this Climate Chat episode, I will interview returning guest David Fenton, a Climate Communications Expert & Activist, about the failure of the climate community to engage the public and how we can get the public to demand action on climate change.
David founded the largest Public Relations firm focused on social causes, Fenton Communications. After retiring from the firm, David is dedicating his efforts to engaging the public and policymakers on climate change. Over the years, David's clients have included Abby Hoffman, Nelson Mandela and Yoko Ono. David's recent book, "The Activist's Media Handbook", is a must-read for climate activists.
22:28:27 From John Macdonald : Hugo, it will be very exciting for your guests to see early demonstrations of new technologies and deterring whales from ship impacts are a great starting point.
22:33:19 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : AI-powered tech supercharges ocean cleanup, boosting plastic collection by 60% - AI-powered tech supercharges ocean cleanup, boosting plastic collection by 60%
22:35:05 From Robert Tulip : https://notebooklm.google/
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 14th April 2025
Agenda
Graeme Taylor – Paper : Introducing a realistic climate strategy – request for journal reviewers
Greg – What testing is being done on Ocean Iron Fertilization?
Clive E – Feedback on visuals with climate numbers
Alf – How to engage new member activists?
Greg S – Why are kids uninterested in cooling the Earth?
Jon C – Who’s really responsible for solving the climate crisis?
Recording: https://youtu.be/1qu-hXRjGk8?t=792
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start can suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a technical question,
- challenge an assumption,
- present something,
- express an opinion,
- highlight an article or video,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 26th May (Aus: Tue 27th May)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82585629865?pwd=3a5OcyUvHwPhiUO44Eq06caFvWbhia.1
Meeting ID: 825 8562 9865
Passcode: 236158
Last Meeting: 12th May 2025
Agenda
Hugo – Positive Polar first research project – feedback please
Robert C – Comments on ARIA’s projects for an article in The Conversation
- Viability of SRM?
Bru – update on Envisionation.org
Herb – Invitation to appear on Climate Emergency Forum
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B63IucdxTRQ&t=1090s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:01:33 From Alf Thomé : While the following two YouTube clips don't directly address Direct Climate Cooling, I thought they might be of interest to anyone presenting the necessary initial 'Wake Up Call' part of our argument. Sheldon Whitehouse focuses on the dramatic ocean-warming crisis, and the later part of the 'Just Have A Think' clip shows an unexpected spread of culprit climate-polluters. Alf
21:01:51 From Alf Thomé : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ONuyst88NU
[Senator Sheldon Whitehouse wake-up call on ocean warming]
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9f16OTL1Lg
(Just-Have-A-Think presenter Dave Borlace on the greatly-underestimated importance of agriculture as a producer of greenhouse gases)
21:21:47 From Dr Brian von Herzen : What is the difference between brown water and black water?
21:21:55 From Dr Brian von Herzen : In Permaculture, there is no such thing as waste
21:26:03 From Sev Clarke : If the waste slurry is somewhat buoyant, you might try adding some iron oxide powder that could attach itself to the solid particles in the waste, if that is allowed by LCLP.
21:29:32 From Sev Clarke : Fat globules might be the best component to attach the powder
21:31:19 From Dr Brian von Herzen : International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) MARPOL Annex IV, which prohibits the discharge of untreated sewage within 12 nautical miles of land or ice shelves.
21:38:42 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands to Clive Elsworth(direct message) : Hi Clive, apologies for being late. I just finished work 2 weeks ago and am planning to join NOAC meetings from now on. If there's an agenda, can you please pop it in the chat?
21:50:45 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : Exploring Climate Cooling
21:50:59 From Rebecca Bishop - Gadigal lands : I just popped it in the chat :-)
21:54:55 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : ARIA link Exploring Climate Cooling
21:55:34 From Hugo Hinrichsen : If you would like to invest and support us in our project go to the following websites:
https://wefunder.com/positive.polar/
22:05:03 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Proposal for radiative forcing standard over carbon standard: https://youtu.be/Y9f16OTL1Lg?si=UOs8vxyO5gismWGk
22:05:15 From Dr Brian von Herzen : “Just have a Think"
22:28:19 From Robert Chris : https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfclm/kgaf013 is the Boselius et al paper I referred to.
22:29:11 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Link to Bru’s plans ??
22:29:35 From Dr Brian von Herzen : What website?
22:29:51 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Which coin?
22:31:16 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Envisionation website - https://envisionation.org/
22:31:26 From Dr Brian von Herzen : thanks
22:31:32 From Dr Brian von Herzen : And $0.10 per hour by 2040
22:31:39 From Dr Brian von Herzen : According to Stellar
22:32:34 From Dr Brian von Herzen : See Stellar by Tony Seba
22:32:36 From Dr Brian von Herzen : March 2025
22:33:01 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Moving from the economics of scarcity to a Tribe of Abundance
22:35:43 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Over centralization is a key problem to address
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 28th Apr 2025
Agenda
Clive – Feedback on radiative forcing slides
Robert T – Nanobubbles
Clive – Tropospheric ozone
Robert T – Attack on ARIA
Hugo – PositivePolar update
Alf – Advice on AI media production
Recording: https://youtu.be/wXfJ-ivha_E?t=1278
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
Clive Elsworth
All
Everyone is invited to our fortnightly NOAC meetings.
NOAC = Nature-based Ocean and Atmospheric Cooling.
Those arriving at the start can suggest topics for discussion. For example, you could:
· ask a technical question,
- challenge an assumption,
- present something,
- express an opinion,
- highlight an article or video,
- make an announcement,
- suggest a plan,
- etc.
New participants are asked to give a very brief introduction.
We speak for 90 mins.
The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
• 1pm PDT (USA)
• 4pm EDT (USA)
• 9pm BST (UK)
• 10pm CEST (France, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Finland)
• 6am Tue AEST (Australia)
Join Zoom Meeting: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/82585629865?pwd=3a5OcyUvHwPhiUO44Eq06caFvWbhia.1
Meeting ID: 825 8562 9865
Passcode: 236158
Last Meeting: 26th May 2025
Agenda
Greg – Response of Keeling curve to CO2 emissions
Clive – Demo Perplexity.ai
Brian – Reframing of climate disruption as a radiative forcing problem
Bruce P – Intro to model of temperature from CO2 emissions
Chris V – UK YouGov poll on geoengineering
John M – Global Oceans treaty (UNOC?) in context of David Attenborough film
Chris V – Draft declaration from UNOC
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h5CtTQW8AV4&t=922s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Also, see Transcript file attached. (ums and uhs removed).
Chat
21:10:56 From Dr Brian von Herzen : Radiative forcing is a more comprehensive measure than CO2 alone because it considers the net effect of all factors, including greenhouse gases, aerosols, and changes in land surface, that influence the Earth's energy balance. While CO2 is the dominant greenhouse gas and a major contributor to radiative forcing, other factors also play a significant role.
21:38:40 From Robert Chris : in Global Warming in the Pipeline, Hansen refers to a formula for the radiative forcing for CO2 of F=f(c) – f(c0). How was this formula derived and is c0 always the pre-industrial CO2 concentration or can it refer to the concentration at the beginning of any time interval
21:45:56 From Dr Brian von Herzen : https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Accounting-comparisons-of-sector-responsibility-for-present-day-warming-1750-2020-A_fig2_389164619?_tp=eyJjb250ZXh0Ijp7InBhZ2UiOiJzY2llbnRpZmljQ29udHJpYnV0aW9ucyIsInByZXZpb3VzUGFnZSI6bnVsbH19
22:18:50 From Bruce Parker : I’ve been working on a model that takes a CO2 emissions pathway and calculates the expected temperature increase and associated costs. The model allows the user to change many of the assumptions for the pathway (carbon feedbacks, temperature acceleration, desired temperature increase, costs, etc.). I’d like to show (very briefly!) both the Web interface and an Excel spreadsheet and then see if there is any interest in having a Zoom session to both explain the models in more detail and to explore ways the models can be made useful for promoting the need for SRM.
Website – www.scenexp.org
Excel model - www.scenexp.org/downloads/TempIncreaseModel.xlsm
22:28:01 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : Dimming the sun; brightening clouds; planting forests: would Britons support geoengineering to combat climate change? | YouGov
22:32:24 From Chris Vivian - GESAMP WG 41 : UNOC Declaration - UNOC3-declaration-final.pdf
Contact Details and Past Meetings
Please update our NOAC spreadsheet with your details:
NOAC website: https://noac.info/Home.aspx
Prev Meeting: 12th May 2025
Agenda
Hugo – Positive Polar first research project – feedback please
Robert C – Comments on ARIA’s projects for an article in The Conversation
- Viability of SRM?
Bru – update on Envisionation.org
Herb – Invitation to appear on Climate Emergency Forum
Recording: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B63IucdxTRQ&t=1090s
Feel free to share this link with trusted friends and colleagues, but please do not post on social media or websites.
Send us new people: Who else should be invited?
Clive Elsworth
Glenn
Thanks for your attached summary of a plan to solve the climate problem. We can discuss it in the NOAC meeting tomorrow.
My only comment is a bit technical: By “reflect 1% sunlight” I’m sure you mean: “reflect an additional 1% sunlight”. But then to appeal to a wide audience, maybe that level of scientific rigour isn’t necessary.
You might be interested in how I’m framing climate change now:
“We are in the early stages of a geological event that is on track to be at least 25 times worse than the worst extinction event in the geological record since multi-cellular life began over half a billion years ago. That was the End-Permian extinction 250 million years ago (aka the Great Dying), in which 90% of all lifeforms in the fossil record disappeared. It’s estimated to have taken 40,000 years for the temperature to rise by 10°C, and most of life couldn’t adapt quickly enough to the changes and went extinct.
Earth’s temperature is now rising 0.36°C per decade, which is 1°C every 30 years, or 10°C in 300 years. That change is over 100x as fast, however there is uncertainty around the duration of the End-Permian, which might have only been 10,000 years. But even for that unlikely short time, a comparative Anthropogenic warming rate of 25x is still conservative. In other words, most species alive today won’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell of adapting in time to a 10°C rise in 300 years.
Climate change feeds off itself with feedback processes that amplify the effect of past emissions. On current trends a 10°C rise is likely by around 2300 - 2400 owing to slow feedback processes such as release of methane from frozen deposits, CO2 from melted permafrost, wildfires, and warming soils, among other mechanisms. Given current greenhouse gas levels, a temperature rise of around 10°C by 2300-2400 can be concluded from the mechanisms described in a paper called “Global Warming in the Pipeline” by ex-NASA director Jim Hansen and his team of scientists, who are well respected in the scientific community.
To avoid climate disaster, the only viable option remaining is for us to use aerosols to cool the Earth, by reflecting away sunlight, while the vitally important task of restoring greenhouse gases close to their pre-industrial levels is achieved. Neither of those is a small task, and both will require unprecedented global cooperation.”
Clive
From: Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>
Sent: 08 June 2025 02:19
To: Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk
Subject: Re: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
Clive,
Enclosed are some ideas for setting up a new YouTube channel.
Perhaps some NOAC people might be interested in this?
Glenn
From: Clive Elsworth <Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk>
Sent: Friday, May 30, 2025 3:53 PM
To: Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>
Subject: RE: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the organization. This message might not be safe, use caution in opening it. If in doubt, do not open the attachment nor links in the message.
I had meant to say Monday. So, I’ll meet you on your zoom link on Monday 6 pm London time, 1 pm Boston time.
Looking forward to meeting you.
Clive
From: Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>
Sent: 30 May 2025 19:52
To: Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk
Subject: Re: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
6 pm London time, 1 pm Boston time is ok.
I am free Mon/Wed/Thurs/Fri next week (not Tues).
g
From: Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk <Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk>
Sent: Friday, May 30, 2025 11:45 AM
To: Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>
Subject: Re: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the organization. This message might not be safe, use caution in opening it. If in doubt, do not open the attachment nor links in the message.
Later is better for me. 7 pm my time is ideal, but if that is the end of your window, shall we say 6 pm my time, 1 pm your time?
On 30/05/2025 01:49 BST Glenn Weinreb <glenn....@aspencore.com> wrote:
Thank you for your comments.
I am free 11am to 2pm EST, Mon...Fri, except Tues.
I believe this is 4pm to 7pm London time.
My zoom is:
g
From: Clive Elsworth <Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk>
Sent: Thursday, May 29, 2025 1:40 PM
To: Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>
Cc: 'Paul Stansell' <paulst...@gmail.com>
Subject: RE: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
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Glenn
See attached with comments where I feel qualified – on pages 3, 4, 9, 50-52.
It would be good to meet up and chat. I’m free now until 11th June.
Clive
From: Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>
Sent: 29 May 2025 15:41
To: Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk
Cc: 'Paul Stansell' <paulst...@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
Clive,
Thank you for your note. I see from your video you are familiar with the climate problem.
To get your views up, you could hire some filmmakers, and have them convert your lecture to something the public might understand. This might cost $10K to $100K, depending on what you do. London has many filmmakers, and they could have you walking around parks while talking. Also, they can convert your lecture to a script that the average person can understand.
At the meeting, I will introduce myself and provide a 5 to 10 min summary of my work, as you suggest.
Also, I am available to chat via zoom w/ anyone who wants to discuss energy, electrical power, climate, or SRM.
g
From: Clive Elsworth <Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk>
Sent: Thursday, May 29, 2025 3:12 AM
To: Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>
Cc: 'Paul Stansell' <paulst...@gmail.com>
Subject: RE: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
CAUTION: This email originated from outside of the organization. This message might not be safe, use caution in opening it. If in doubt, do not open the attachment nor links in the message.
Glenn
Thanks for your LinkedIn message and for your important work.
I’ve now watched your video, which does a much better job than most at expounding the problems and potential solutions. It’s difficult to say too much about nuclear power without putting people off, and I think you got that about right. (See below my recent comment on the “As Low as Reasonably Achievable” radiation safety policy (ALARA). To me, advanced nuclear fission (mainly the molten salt reactor) holds most promise for civilization’s voracious appetite for energy - at low CO2. I had high hopes for the Moltex Stable Salt Reactor, but Moltex went into administration a few months ago. I was an early investor. You might know that the AI revolution is quickly ramping up data centre electricity demand. I’m hoping Moltex’s valuable IP will get snapped up to help with that.
I totally agree that solutions must be lowest cost! 😊 However, these days voluntary colleagues and I don’t spend much time discussing decarbonisation because radiative forcing is now at about 3.3 W/m2, which is almost equivalent to a doubling of CO2. According to Jim Hansen a doubling of CO2 would lead to a 4.5°C rise in the next several decades. The current accelerating temp rise is mainly due to fast feedbacks such as water vapour and reducing cloud cover over the tropics and subtropics. The rapid warming is made much worse by the IMO rules restricting SO2/NOx emissions from shipping. OTOH Prof Alan Gadian, Meteorology, Leeds UK, said that those IMO rules provided useful data on the magnitude of the cloud cooling effect of shipping emissions, which was stronger than previously thought.
My main study focus currently is Marine Cloud Brightening (MCB), specifically the extent of diurnal cloud cooling. i.e. I suspect that the strong oxidative effect of clouds could be accelerating CCN production during the day, making clouds brighter when needed most. That could go a long way to explaining the magnitude of the cooling effect of cloud-aerosol interaction induced by SO2/NOx emissions.
IMHO The lowest cost emergency cooling solution would be to reverse the IMO rules for shipping far out at sea where most of the pollution safely rains out into the ocean. The ocean has had a high sulfate content for billions of years. Sulfate was the main oxidant used by most microbes for their respiration before the great oxidation event ~2 billion years ago, which was when green photosynthesis began. Those ‘sulfate reducing’ microbes are still a vitally important part of life on Earth and are partly what put the sulfur content into crude oil in the first place. (Some microbes use an even weaker oxidant – bicarbonate, and feed off hydrogen in serpentine rock in the ocean crust. We think that’s where life began).
Re: SRM, close colleagues and I prefer MCB to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI). That is because MCB has been in accidental operation for decades apparently without climate harm. SAI occurs sporadically from large volcanoes, altering tropospheric photochemistry, but the effect is temporary. Doing SAI on a permanent basis worries us, especially if they use CaCO3, which would disturb the chemical balance of the troposphere, which is naturally acidic. CaCO3 is basic (alkaline).
So, to me MCB R&D is what needs to be ramped up most urgently.
Paul Stansell tells me he spoke to you recently, and he and I are working together on a proposal for another small campaigning group. (Paul is the better physicist and is much better at math than me.) He told me he is struggling to find time to read your 60-page PDF since he is now doing our detailed calcs on MCB. So, I will find the time.
BTW I recently tried to produce my own publicly appealing video, but ended up producing this lecture instead: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkR1MVi50rI&t=173s
For the NOAC meeting, we spend most of our time on Q&A and discussion, so could you please keep your initial presentation to around 5 - 10 mins? Your material will then likely get further discussed with you for a further 20-30 mins or more and should be informative to you. It might also be a useful recruiting ground.
Let me know if you’d like me to add you to the Healthy Planet Action Coalition email group.
Best Wishes
Clive
https://climategamechangers.org/ (My old website, long neglected because I now focus on environmental chemistry and climate solutions.)
Here’s my ALARA comment, which was on https://worksinprogress.co/issue/the-bad-science-behind-expensive-nuclear/
Liked by Sam Bowman, Alex Chalmers
Great article - thanks.
The main threat to DNA is the occasional Reactive Oxidant Species (ROS). These are chemical radicals naturally produced by the oxidation of reductants (sugars etc.) in every animal cell. That oxidation provides energy, but ROS is occasionally released by accident. That's why we have antioxidants - to put out the 'fire-like mayhem' caused by ROS. At rest ROS is thought to cause about 10x the DNA damage of background radiation. Vigorous exercise increases the damage rate much more. It makes no difference how DNA gets damaged. The effect of DNA damage caused by ionizing radiation and ROS is the same.
Most damage happens to other cell proteins but as we know, DNA damage can cause long term problems. Fortunately, the double helix structure of DNA enables single strand breaks to get repaired quite quickly by the cell. Most double breaks take longer to repair by more complex cell processes. Where damaged DNA cannot be repaired the whole cell is sacrificed by apoptosis (immune response). Cancer cells develop in our bodies all the time and it is only as we age that our immune system weakens, raising the risk of developing cancer.
So yes, in an era where emissions from energy systems threaten mass extinction from Earth's climate, which is now warming at least 25x the warming rate that caused the worst mass extinction in geological history (End Permian or Great Dying), it would be laughable if it wasn't so sad that ALARA is used by misinformed ideologues to increase the cost of nuclear power.
Radioactive substances exist in all our food, our clothes, the ground, the structure of buildings, and the air - especially near coal plants, which emit uranium in their smoke. If you want to minimise the radiation you receive you should avoid going out on sunny days, and you should keep away from people and animals because they all have radioactive substances in their bodies. Carbon dating experts consider ideologues who declare themselves a radiation free zone 'in serious trouble': It means they must have dead at least 50,000 years.
From: Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>
Sent: 29 May 2025 04:00
To: 'Brian Von Herzen' <br...@climatefoundation.org>; 'John Nissen' <johnnis...@gmail.com>; 'Sev Clarke' <sevc...@me.com>; 'Healthy Planet Action Coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk
Cc: 'lee mcnair' <dragon...@gmail.com>; ursul...@hotmail.com; jsc...@gmail.com; gra...@bestfutures.org
Subject: Re: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
Thank you for inviting me to the NOAC meeting. I plan to attend and will provide a brief summary of my projects, listed below.
Best regards,
Glenn....@AspenCore.com, Cell 617-251-8164
Director, AspenCore Climate Solutions Research Center
==============
PROJECT #1: Developing R&D system that solves the entire climate problem
https://www.ma2life.org/g/Decarbonization_Lab_Biz_Plan.pdf
* Chapter 1: Executive Summary
* Chapter 3: R&D Strategy
* Chapter 11: Climate Science
* Chapter 10: Reflecting Sunlight
* Chapter 12: Electrical Power Decarbonization
==============
PROJECT #2: Developing Climate Solution Website
https://www.ma2life.org/g/Planet_Dashboard_Proposal.pdf
* Chapter 1: Executive Summary
* Chapter 2: Solving the entire problem at the lowest cost
* Chapter 3: Decarbonization strategy
==============
PROJECT #3: Making Climate Solution Documentary Film
Precursor 27min Video, by Glenn Weinreb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9RY1943xlRI
Project Summary
https://www.ma2life.org/g/film/summary.pdf
Draft of Script
https://www.ma2life.org/g/film/manuscript.pdf
==============
CLIMATE SOLUTION WORKS BY GLENN WEINREB
Videos
https://www.aplantosavetheplanet.org/climate-solution-videos
Articles
https://www.manhattan2.org/#articles
A Plan to Save the Planet (free book by Glenn Weinreb)
https://www.ma2life.org/g/A_Plan_to_Save_the_Planet.pdf
AI's Solution to the Climate Problem (18pg booklet)
https://www.ma2life.org/g/AIs_Solution_to_the_Climate_Problem.pdf
==============
OPEN-SOURCE FILES ON GOOGLE DRIVE
Making Climate Solution Documentary Film
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1A17D_sJvNumo63z2iBBzZrUb5hJ32Yr9?usp=drive_link
Developing Climate Solution Website
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1kUG7IVlzTIt1f-J2K0INON6aow61ZNxl?usp=drive_link
Developing R&D system that solves the entire climate problem
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1Oi9mxMX6FRa2MoT9kpA3qBwE9rFmUX8v?usp=drive_link
A Plan to Save the Planet (free book by Glenn Weinreb)
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1ARlk4beZHL8PazmxkusADPLN5In5_e0T?usp=drive_link
AI's Solution to the Climate Problem (18pg booklet)
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1PE8iD10hpU0zWfQEfCqZ45R6pUHnKDk0?usp=drive_link
From: Clive Elsworth <Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk>
Sent: Wednesday, May 28, 2025 2:15 PM
To: 'Brian Von Herzen' <br...@climatefoundation.org>; 'John Nissen' <johnnis...@gmail.com>; 'Sev Clarke' <sevc...@me.com>; 'Healthy Planet Action Coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com
>
Cc: 'lee mcnair' <dragon...@gmail.com>; ursul...@hotmail.com <ursul...@hotmail.com>; jsc...@gmail.com <jsc...@gmail.com>; gra...@bestfutures.org <gra...@bestfutures.org>; Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>
Subject: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
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Clive Elsworth
John Nissen
Clive Elsworth
John
I agree with you that the poles urgently need to be cooled.
But I’m surprised you don’t take heed from Prof Alan Gadian, Meteorology Leeds, who says “SAI doesn’t cool the poles much”. The poles spend most of their time losing heat to space, not gaining it from the sun. For SAI to have the required effect it should be applied more evenly, so the tropics don’t pass so much meridional heat and additional cloud-making, heat-trapping water vapour towards the polar regions.
On MCB, Rob Wood (a former student of Prof Gadian, now at the University of Washington), says (Fig 5) a doubling of CO2 can be counteracted by 12,000 sprayers emitting 69 Mt of salt nanoparticles per year. But I concede that if commercial ships were to be used many of them would not be in the right places at the right times.
So, I agree with those who say both types of SRM will likely be needed.
Clive
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You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC)" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to healthy-planet-action...@googlegroups.com.
Clive Elsworth
Thanks Mike
That’s a helpful comparison with the warming rate at end of the last glacial maximum.
I understand that South America began to split from Africa at most 190 million years ago due to the same tectonic process that is still moving them apart. The End-Permian happened when the Pangea supercontinent was still intact and was caused by elevated volcanic activity over a sustained period in the ‘Siberia Trapps’. That set fire to a lot of coal seams releasing even more CO2, which was what led to the 10°C rise.
> overstating and then dismissed as doomsayers
Some of us are alarmed by the ‘Earth System Sensitivity’ (ESS, as distinct from Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity, ECS) described by Jim Hansen in his Pipeline paper. ESS is driven by slow feedbacks by which he predicts an eventual 10°C warming under a high-emissions scenario. He doesn’t give a date and (see below, according to AI) I have indeed been overstating it a bit and should have said something more like “95% of that 10°C warming is likely to play out between around 2300 – 2500”.
But do you think it’s dangerous to rely on Hansen’s work?
Clive
I asked ChatGPT:
By when is around 95% of the 10°C rise predicted by the Hansen Pipeline paper expected to happen?
ChatGPT said:
The Hansen et al. (2023) paper—often referred to as the “Hansen Pipeline” paper—warns of a potential ~10°C global warming over a longer-term trajectory due to Earth’s energy imbalance and slow feedbacks, particularly involving ice sheet loss and ocean dynamics.
Key Estimate from the Paper:
- The paper does not predict a 10°C warming by a specific near-term date, but rather suggests that approximately 95% of this potential warming could occur over the next several centuries, depending on emissions scenarios and Earth system feedbacks.
Specifically:
- James Hansen and colleagues estimate that most (~95%) of the eventual ~10°C warming would occur within 400–500 years, if fossil fuel emissions continue unabated.
- However, they emphasize that 1.2–1.3°C warming has already occurred, and rapid warming (2–3°C) could occur this century, largely due to aerosol reduction and continued greenhouse gas emissions.
Summary Timeline (Approximate):
Period | Estimated Cumulative Warming |
By ~2100 | 2–3°C (under high-emissions scenario) |
By ~2300–2500 | ~9.5–10°C (95% of eventual warming, if unchecked) |
Important Notes:
- The “pipeline” warming refers to latent warming already committed due to past emissions and Earth system inertia.
- The 10°C estimate is not a near-term forecast, but rather a long-term warning under business-as-usual or high-emissions scenarios, especially if slow feedbacks like ice sheet disintegration and reduced ocean heat uptake play out.
If you’re looking for a summary or visual timeline from the paper, I can create one.
For those still reading… here’s more detail from NotebookLM:
By when is around 99% of the 10°C warming from ESS expected to happen?
Based on the sources, the 10°C figure represents the eventual equilibrium global warming due to today's greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing alone, after all slow feedbacks operate1.... This figure is derived from estimates of the Earth System Sensitivity (ESS)3....
Here's what the sources indicate about the timescale for this warming:
•
The 10°C figure includes the response of slow feedbacks, which are defined as processes like changes in ice sheets and atmospheric GHG amounts responding to climate change3....
•
In the paleoclimate record, these slow feedbacks typically operate over tens and hundreds of thousands of years, paced by slowly changing Earth orbital forcing67.
•
While these slow feedbacks changed slowly in the past, the paper notes that this does not necessarily mean they cannot operate more rapidly in response to a rapid climate forcing like the present human-made forcing7. Indeed, the paper mentions the danger of rapid, non-linear ice melt and potentially large sea level rise on a century timescale in response to continued extraordinary human-made forcing, which would be part of the slow feedback response unfolding faster than in paleoclimate transitions8.
•
However, the full equilibrium adjustment involving all slow feedbacks, which leads to the complete 10°C ESS warming for today's GHG level alone, is a process that unfolds over very long timescales, far exceeding human lifetimes9. The paper explicitly states that this 7-10°C warming (including aerosol offset) is not a warming that will be experienced by today's public9.
•
Even the fast-feedback response (addressed by ECS), which precedes the full ESS, has a simulated e-folding time (the time to reach ~63% of the equilibrium response) of about a century in the GISS models discussed10.... Reaching ~99% of just the fast-feedback equilibrium would take multiple centuries. The full ESS adds processes with even longer inherent timescales, such as complete ice sheet disintegration or formation and the slow adjustment of the deep ocean carbon cycle.
Therefore, the sources describe the 10°C warming from ESS as an eventual equilibrium state that would be reached over multi-millennial timescales after today's GHG levels are stabilized, not within decades or even a few centuries for the full 99% realization. It represents the long-term path the planet is set upon, rather than an imminent temperature increase9. The paper uses this large equilibrium figure to emphasize the enormity of the consequences implied by today's GHG concentrations in the very long term13.... The maximum aerosol cooling in the early 21st century is estimated to reduce this eventual equilibrium warming to about 7°C, but aerosol amounts are declining214.
From: Michael MacCracken <mmac...@comcast.net>
Sent: 08 June 2025 18:19
To: Cl...@EndorphinSoftware.co.uk
Subject: Re: [HPAC] RE: [External] The next NOAC meeting is: Monday 9th June (Aus: Tue 10th June)
Hi Clive--On the way you are framing the argument, I agree that the speed of warming is a key factor (it is about 20-40 times as fast as coming out of the last Glacial Maximum (which averaged about 1 C every 20 centuries (so 6 C over the period from 20,000 years ago to 8,000 years ago). During this warming event, there were some losses, but not nearly as severe as 250M years ago.
On going back to earlier times, I think one has to be careful about the onset. The major event 250 million or so years ago coincides roughly with the start of the formation of the Atlantic Ocean with a major continental splitting. For that event, I'd suggest that a more likely cause was a major asteroid impact somewhere where Africa and South America were joined as the split seemed to grow from south to north. Were that the situation, the rate of climate change would have been huge, sort of like the Cretaceous event 60 some million years ago. I think there may have been papers about this, but not sure.
I would also hope that without SRM, the temperature would only be heading to 4-5 C or so. This would be terrible enough as it would put the world on track to lose most of the big ice sheets and so sea level rise of 30 plus meters over time, maybe several centuries and adapting to this would be horrendous challenge, much less the very high heat indices and more. This all seems to me more than enough to justify SRM, and if one is going to do that, start early and learn as one goes--to me, waiting seems a terrible mistake. And meanwhile do all one can to facilitate the conversion to renewable energy sources.
So, just a thought as I do think we need to be really careful not to be dismissed as overstating and then dismissed as doomsayers.
Best, Mike
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Michael MacCracken
Hi Clive--I am going to disagree with Alan on
this. The advantage of cooling the Arctic is one only needs
aerosol there for a few months starting when the snow albedo
drops due to surface melting, so perhaps in late April through
August when Sun is way down. This lets altitude of aerosol to be
quite low. And during peak summer, there is as much solar
radiation coming in over the Arctic as over the equator.
And if SAI can get it so that ocean waters are just a bit cooler (and doing so may actually lead slightly higher temperature as fresh meltwater on the surface of sea ice freezes at 0 C whereas sea water freezes at -1.8 C). With ice there, its insulating effect as it thickens lets the temperature at the ice surface to drop sharply. So, cooling the surface seawater just a bit can have a big effect.
Mike MacCracken
Michael MacCracken
Hi Clive--On the cause of the cooling, it is interesting to me that the antipode (or close to it, recalling that the area had yet to collide with south Asia) of the end of Cretaceous asteroid is what are called volcanic areas in what is now India that were for many years said to be the cause of the Cretaceous extinction. The asteroid impact creates waves that head around the world in all directions and converge at the antipode and would create quite a disturbance.
I'd suggest it might be that the same thing might have happened in the past--or what might it have been that started the Siberian Trapps getting so disturbed--again, we're pretty much talking about an antipodal location. I'm certainly willing to agree that the emissions from burning coal seams, etc. could have caused further impacts and prolonged conditions--but I'd like to know what it was that ignited the fires and such a surface geological disturbance.
On your question about conditions a few hundred years ahead, I'd be cautious as all sorts of things would be happening if the world gets to 5 C, especially the ice sheets rapidly losing mass, raising sea level, flooding major low lying areas, perhaps shutting down ocean overturning, etc. Ocean covered areas don't get as hot in summer or cold in winter as land and so accurately projecting changes in such altered geographic conditions seems pretty risky to me. Will low latitude vegetated areas become deserts, who knows. No question that the climate will be tremendously different and difficult. I thought back in the Cretaceous and maybe earlier the CO2 concentration was thought to be of order 1200-1600 ppm, and hopefully we don't get a CO2 concentration that high, so 10 C seems a bit high if we can keep concentration at half the Cretaceous (if my memory serves me well) and I wonder how much would be due to the temperatures of Greenland and Siberia becoming that of Alaska and how much warmer it will be on remaining land areas in low and midlatitudes, etc.
Best, Mike
