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Thanks for this summary of recent key papers, Paul!
Just a short comment on Panama upwelling failure you mentioned. You implied that failure of upwelling in the Gulf of Panama is novel this year, but in fact upwelling is highly episodic and variable from year to year, and there have been increasing failures of upwelling in recent decades because the surface hot water layer is just too thick and buoyant for nutrient rich cold water to reach the surface. Upwelling causes the massive green phytoplankton blooms that attract whales who migrate all the way from Antarctica for the feeding season!