Earth's Energy Imbalance update to December 2025 using CERES Data

[Tom Harris]

Hi,

I posted this article on Substack last week having analysed the latest CERES data release. It breaks down the trends showing increased EEI, accelerating EEA and also the dramatic albedo reductions. 

I also provide a ladder diagram that separates the roles of clear and cloudy, short and long wave contributions to the EEI growth since 2000. 

The data may be useful for this group as it clearly shows the role of GHGs and Albedo and hence the needs for CDR and (potentially) SRM.

I hope the group finds it interesting/useful and if you have any comments, please get back to me.

https://drtomharris.substack.com/p/earths-energy-imbalance-quarter-century 

Thanks,

Dr Tom Harris 

[rob...@rtulip.net]

Hi Tom

 

Thank you very much for this essential research.  Your point about “dramatic albedo reductions” is a theme I have emphasised.  Look forward to reading your work.

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

[rob...@rtulip.net]

Tom, I really appreciate the Energy Imbalance Ladder.  Disaggregating the heat factors in this way is really valuable.  However, I reject your assertion that "First and foremost, our emissions of GHGs have to slow and stop as soon as possible" and your analysis of SRM and CDR. 

 

There is simply no realistic prospect of a climate-scale reduction in emissions in the short term.  As such, positing this as "first and foremost" is an exercise in moral vanity, a political posture that only serves to cement the paralysis of climate policy by alienating the fossil economy, preventing the alliances needed to cool the Earth.  What is really "first and foremost" is the loss of 1.58 million km²  of clouds documented by your analysis here as the primary cause of new heat.  Cutting emissions, apart from not being feasible, does nothing to slow albedo loss.  As such, carbon action can readily be seen as a slower contribution to stabilisation, and support for it should not be presented as the precondition for admittance to the climate tribe that your analysis suggests.  There is far too much rigid virtue signalling within climate debate, leading to a failure to see the real sequence of required action, which is to first restore albedo, alongside the slower and larger problem of managing carbon.

 

This leads on to your wrong analysis of SRM and CDR.  In fact, SRM, not CDR, is the equivalent of chemotherapy, to continue your analogy.  SRM is the only way to remove the excess heat that is causing tipping points.  Carbon action is too small, slow and difficult to have more than a marginal impact on short term heat increase.  Without SRM, tipping points will overwhelm carbon action.  CDR is more like the diet and exercise that can restore long term health, while the emergency prevention of death is delivered by SRM. 

 

I would like to see the potential for CDR and SRM to impact each step in the ladder (copied here from your link).  As I understand it, CDR/GGR can only have direct impact on Long Wave Radiation, whereas Short Wave Radiation can only be brought back into balance by restoring albedo.  The numbers in your chart show that LW change has cooled the Earth by 0.8 w/m² this century, whereas SW change has heated the Earth by 1.77 w/m².  That 2.57 w/m² difference in radiative forcing between LW and SW radiation indicates the SW problem is far worse, and suggests the idea that we should focus mainly on LW action is condemned to be ineffective.

 

I am always happy to be proved wrong on anything I claim.  Again, I really appreciate how your analysis provides a framework to help quantify the problem.

 

Regards

 

Robert Tulip

 

 

From: healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com> On Behalf Of Tom Harris

Sent: Saturday, 7 March 2026 1:39 AM
To: Healthy Planet Action Coalition (HPAC) <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>

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