Professor Ted Parson, UCLA School of Law, will speak with the Healthy Planet Action Coalition at our next public zoom meeting on 30 April.
Topic: Insights from the Montreal Protocol for Climate Interventions
Time: 5.30 pm EDT, Thursday 30 April (90 minutes)
Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=2OEdvleb4UpYfK4a950ryohFWcw93F.1
Professor Parson is Distinguished Dan and Rae Emmett Professor of Environmental Law and Faculty Director, Emmett Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, University of California Los Angeles. He has written extensively on the Montreal Protocol on Ozone Depleting Substances, and on climate intervention.
Here are some of his relevant writings
Robert Tulip
https://healthyplanetaction.org/
Thanks, and Onwards,
Dennis
PS I was particularly excited to learn recently from Ted Parson all about the great success at the Latin America SRM workshop in January. And to learn from him that there are some really promising opportunities to do much useful follow up work in that region as well. Cheers.
As background to this meeting, here is a draft chapter from my forthcoming book on the Albedo Accord, exploring how the Montreal Protocol provides a governance model for action to restore planetary albedo.
Montreal, the Ozone Layer and the Business Case for an Albedo Accord
Regards
Robert Tulip
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Time: 5.30 pm EDT, Thursday 28 May (90 minutes)
Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=2OEdvleb4UpYfK4a950ryohFWcw93F.1
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Global Warming Acceleration Can Increase Global Temperature to 2C or even 2.5C by 2035: New Research
Video by Paul Beckwith
https://youtu.be/SPSsKhNQ_8c?si=DaV69i-UQm9y1f6f.
The video is a review of the new paper on "Global warming acceleration in satellite observed lower-tropospheric temperature"; https://lnkd.in/d-_5Tdsp
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President Carter gets exposed to fallout at "2-Mile Island”There is then a press conference:Reporter 1: "Is it true the president is 100 feet tall?"Press Sec: "No! Absolutely not!"Reporter 2: "Is the President 90 feet tall?"Press Sec: "No Comment."
Hi all,
there is a large difference between 2030 and 2037 hitting first time over 12 months 2°C of warming - it's everything!
That we will reach 2°C of warming around 2030 you can calculate on the back of an envelope if you know the discussed mechanisms driving the temperature jumps that emerge now.
It's the intensification of ocean heat being released to the atmosphere during El Nino driven temperature jumps along with a massive expansion of marine heatwaves and SST patterns driving cloud feedbacks in the prelude of these jumps. This we had in 2014-2016 as a first signal only to intensify during 2023/24 as it had only been a weak El Nino with other regions taking the lead in latent heat (evaporation) from the oceans.
Especially, the non-linear intensification of marine heatwaves during these jumps along with a SST pattern driven cloud feedback is highly worrisome. We have now massive marine heatwaves developing in the low clouds regions of the oceans which are known to reduce substantially low cloud cover in these regions - the stability of the atmospheric air column is reduced by high SSTs which then allows high convection clouds to form which then reduces low cloud cover in the ocean regions where cloud cover or normally colder ocean is the most extensive.
Further, the cloud feedback going nuts in 2022-2023 had also been feedback driven via sea ice losses around Antarctica supporting the Southern Hemisphere cloud feedback.
In 2025 when ocean heat content increases reached a new record highs with 24Zj we reached an 8-fold increase above the mean values between 1958 - 1985. At the same time we had a non-linear intensification, spread and persistence of marine heatwaves doing nuts in both Hemispheres the last years - it started well before IMO reductions also in the North Pacific and North Atlantic.
From 2014-2016 we had the first temperature jump after which SAT did not substantially decline again but SSTs did. Then just 7 years later the next temperature jump with global mean temps increasing by ~0.4°C from the temp. level they started from. And this time SSTs did not decline as well with SAT remaining at exceptional levels which is in-itself a climate atrocity...
As ocean heat uptake drives these jumps the next jump will likely happen even earlier hence it will likely happen around 2030 and bring us close or even above 2°C of warming. From then onward no significant decline in SAT and SSTs will happen as too many feedbacks become now operational driving the warming.
Furthermore, if we get an exceptional El Nino which could already produce a large temperature jump during 2027/28 which we can't rule out we would be close to 2°C by that time during a 12 months period. If 1877/78 would be repeated we could even have a jump by 0.5°C. I think this highly unlikely as ocean heat uptake occurred below 300m in 2025 and currently a synchronization of feedback's does not seem to happen like in 2023/24. But things can change fast so let's see...
We are now in the process to trigger a vicious cycle between the upper oceans and the atmosphere with so many red lights now flashing one may wonder here how many do we need to realized the gravity of our situation?
Hence, if we reach 2°C of warming by 2030, we will reach 3°C by 2040 if we are lucky, as ocean surface temperatures going nuts drive all the extremes over the continents and poleward subsystem changes that their impact on GHG feedbacks will fast become massive as we already saw it to emerge in 2024 with atmospheric CO2 levels going off charts. From all sub-systems the observations are increasing that the recent increase in extreme events drives sudden changes and trend accelerations involving lots of regional GHG feedbacks .
It's the non-linear increases in heatwave drought compound events over the continents, exceptional wildfire seasons (fun fact here new research shows that wildfire smoke and dust evaporates low marine clouds if it forms a layer above the clouds), exceptional flooding and storm seasons, humid heatwaves etc. switching the terrestrial carbon sink into a source with the main amplifier being marine heatwaves and emerging SST patterns.
If you are interested in the scientific discussion on any of these points tell me...
Best
Jan
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/AF47B34C-982D-4E7F-8061-1928F60DF900%40gmail.com.
-- Jan Umsonst Wallauer Str. 6D, 30326 Frankfurt am Main Tele: 0176 41114523 E-Mail: j.o.u...@gmail.com Performing Vitality: https://performingvitality.wordpress.com/
Thanks, Jan, I’ve been watching the SST global patterns closely since the satellites went up in 1983, and indeed every El Niño has been followed followed by a rise in the “baseline” SST for a few years, until the next El Niño jump, exactly what you expect as the ocean warms up………
To view this discussion visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/healthy-planet-action-coalition/d36b7b44-0582-44a4-ac75-190bc17471b1%40gmail.com.
You can probably model the data better with a series of step functions than a single exponential.
Absolutely - global warming realizes now via ocean heat uptake fueled jumps that release via rising amounts of latent heat release and with current ocean heat uptake rates reaching insane 24Zj during an neutral to weak La Nina year this would imply larger jumps which would bring us close to 2°C of warming when the next one realizes.
Hence, if we really get such a strong El Nino like indicated by ever more models, we are in a fast track extinction level event as all the indices that go sharply up since a decade would further accelerate.
But hey aerosols are the core reason - cynicism off!
So let's hope the models are wrong again and an El Nino of a new kind won't happen so early again far outpacing climate models as they did not see an intensification of El Ninos coming so soon.
Further, it would show that to exclude the warming effect of El Ninos supercharged by global warming is to dismiss one of the main feedbacks of climate warming - El Ninos happening in a higher frequency producing stronger warming impulses.
Just add another spike to that graph and do not expect that the following temperature jump will take much longer as the cloud feedback will further ramp up.
Also it shows that the drops in SAT after El Ninos start to decline, while the frequency goes sharply upward, especially if we get really a new class of El Nino in 2026 - if this is really possible the physical Earth system shows humanity two middle fingers while saying: I fuck you now!

Here some of the relevant studies in regard to El Ninos and recent temperature jumps as the signal became visible since the last jump after the Hiatus - fun fact they imply that another temperature jump so soon should not be possible:
"Hindcast and model experiments conducted to illustrate the physical mechanism linking the decadal mode to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation-related trade winds, which regulate the strength of the Equatorial Undercurrent and the surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean, revealed an El Niño-like state for the last several years."
"A Recent Shift Toward an El Niño-Like Ocean State in the Tropical Pacific and the Resumption of Ocean Warming"; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018GL080651
"Our results confirm that weak El Niño activity, rather than volcanic eruptions, was the cause of the hiatus, while the rapid temperature rise is due to atmospheric heat release during 2014–2016 El Niño conditions concurrent with the continuing global warming trend."
"The
extreme El Niño of 2015–2016 and the end of global warming
hiatus";
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017GL072908
"A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014–2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced."
"Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014–2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases"; https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdfdirect/10.1002/2017GL076500
"We show that the transition from the multi-year La Niña to El Niño was key to Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023, upon the externally forced positive imbalance. Our sampling analyses from the multi-model simulation dataset highlight the dominant influence of the La Niña-to-El Niño sequence on enhanced energy uptake, with crucial importance of multi-year persistence in preceding La Niña. When combined with estimates of the externally forced component derived under Shared Socio-economic Pathway scenarios, the contribution associated with the La Niña-to-El Niño transition explains about 75% of the observed extreme energy uptake. Our finding underscores the role of internal climate variability in shaping Earth’s energy budget and its potential amplification under a warming climate."
"Multi-year La Niña–El Niño transition influenced Earth’s extreme energy uptake in 2022–2023"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-026-01921-6
This graph is highly relevant as it shows the main heating centers during the last El Nino in 2023:

"Using a process-based analysis from multiple observational datasets, we show that the uniqueness of the 2023 event arose from the La Niña-like ocean-atmosphere state on which it developed. This background favoured (1) a steep year-to-year increase of Sea Surface Temperature, particularly in mean atmospheric subsidence regions, reducing low-cloud cover and giving rise to a record-breaking change in the radiative budget; (2) anomalously sustained precipitation over high sea surface temperatures in the Western Pacific, fuelling unusual diabatic heating compared to canonical El Nino events. This altogether led to an exceptionally early increase in tropical tropospheric temperature in boreal fall, ultimately influencing the jump in temperature at the global scale."
"Physical understanding of the extreme global temperature jump in 2023"; https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-026-03382-6
It's somehow hilarious how the prospect of a "super" El Nino is taken totally out of its context even by most of the leading climate scientists - therefore I cheer again James Hansen who said it out loud: it would be another strong signal that global warming is further accelerating...
The last 3 year La Nina could even be an indication that it's part of critically slowing down of ENSO tipping into an El Nino dominated state with one temperature jump after another as there is now plenty of ocean heat fueling jumps as ocean heat uptake rates even reached new record values during a neutral to weak La Nina year in 2025...
Sorry for my rant - but how many signs do we need to understand that we are now in the catastrophic range easily able to trigger an extinction level event of humanity! Ah wait I forgot it's aerosols from IMO2020 reductions by only 8Mt as only small amounts of aerosol changes are needed to control global sea surface temperatures - ahhhhhhhhhhh fuck!
All the best
Jan
Fluctuations in tropical clouds after upwelling zones fail, plus huge meltbacks of the Antarctic floating ice now underway, will cause unexpected changes in top of the atmosphere emissions.
All of these are just epiphenomena on top of changes in ocean heat storage surface circulation, and turnover…….
Thomas J. F. Goreau, PhD
President, Global Coral Reef Alliance
Chief Scientist, Biorock Technology Inc.
Technical Advisor, Blue Guardians Programme, SIDS DOCK
37 Pleasant Street, Cambridge, MA 02139
gor...@globalcoral.org
www.globalcoral.org
Phone: (1) 857-523-0807 (leave message)
Books:
Geotherapy: Innovative Methods of Soil Fertility Restoration, Carbon Sequestration, and Reversing CO2 Increase
Innovative Methods of Marine Ecosystem Restoration
On the Nature of Things: The Scientific Photography of Fritz Goro
Coral Reef Natural History From Beginning To End (in preparation)
Geotherapy: Regenerating ecosystem services to reverse climate change
No one can change the past, everybody can change the future
It’s much later than we think, especially if we don’t think
Those with their heads in the sand will see the light when global warming and sea level rise wash the beach away
“When you run to the rocks, the rocks will be melting, when you run to the sea, the sea will be boiling”, Peter Tosh, Jamaica’s greatest song writer
“The Earth is not dying, she is being killed” U. Utah Phillips
“It is the responsibility of intellectuals to speak the truth and expose lies” Noam Chomsky
If I were a betting man, I wouldn’t gamble on 2026 being colder than 2023, 2024, and 2025, as the graph forecasts!
From: Jan Umsonst <j.o.u...@gmail.com>
Date: Friday, June 5, 2026 at 14:20
Thanks
I have been really looking forward to hearing the voices from emerging economies, from Soumitra and Delia, and the learning more about the domestic settings and regional/international opportunities for facilitating awareness and action
Best
John
From: Garrity, Dennis <D.GA...@landscapealliance.org>
Sent: Monday, 22 June 2026 10:01 AM
To: rob...@rtulip.net; 'Healthy Planet Action Coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Planetary Restoration' <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Bruce <br...@chesdata.com>; Steering Circle HPAC <hpac-steer...@googlegroups.com>;
Paul Gambill <pa...@paulgambill.com>; John Dixon <john....@uq.edu.au>; Howarth Bouis <H.B...@cgiar.org>; Anita Nzeh <an...@degrees.ngo>; Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>; Worms, Patrick <P.W...@landscapealliance.org>; Godwin....@kalro.org;
aasima....@gmail.com; Ricken Patel <ric...@gmail.com>; hans.va...@iier.eu; Chip Fay <ch...@samdhana.org>; Lorena Sabino <llsa...@up.edu.ph>; Angelo Matira <afma...@up.edu.ph>; Hans van der Loo <hansvan...@gmail.com>; Kelsey Mae Eusebio <kteu...@up.edu.ph>;
Viella Tunay <vmt...@gmail.com>; Patricia Ann Sanchez <pjsa...@up.edu.ph>; esg...@up.edu.ph; cbgig...@up.edu.ph; kglo...@alum.up.edu.ph; Delia Catacutan <del.cat...@gmail.com>; wpel...@greenpeace.org; adorad...@gmail.com; Westermann Olaf
<olaf.we...@crs.org>; Robert Winterbottom <rwinter...@gmail.com>; Geoffrey Heinrich <geoffrey...@gmail.com>; Mark Lynas <markl...@gmail.com>; Sara Scherr <sara....@gmail.com>; Lulu Hayanga <hayan...@gmail.com>; Miccolis, Andrew <A.Mic...@landscapealliance.org>;
Cunha, Marcelo Inacio da <M.C...@landscapealliance.org>
Cc: Soumitra Das <soumi...@healthyclimateinitiative.org>; Dr. Soumitra Das <mr.soum...@gmail.com>; Delia Catacutan <del.cat...@gmail.com>
Subject: Invitation to HPAC members forum June 25th: Developing national organizations related to the HPAC agenda
Dear Colleagues,
Our Healthy Planet Action Coalition members forum will be hosting two special guests at our next public zoom meeting on June 25th at 5.30 pm Eastern time US.
Link: https://us02web.zoom.us/j/88954851189?pwd=2OEdvleb4UpYfK4a950ryohFWcw93F.1
India and The Philippines are two of the world’s most climate vulnerable countries in the world. Both have been experiencing brutal weather disasters affecting hundreds of millions of people that have been exacerbated by climate change.
Dr Soumitra Das, CEO of Healthy Climate Initiative, an affiliate national organization of HPAC that is focused on India, will update us on the rapid development of his organization's programs, including the upcoming India Cooling Summit that will be convened on August 4th in Delhi.
Dr Delia Catacutan, CEO of Healthy Planet Action Philippines, will brief us on the launch of this new national organization, and its plans for education and policy impact.
Their presentations will lead us to an open discussion of the role of national-level organizations in building citizen and policy support for a more comprehensive approach to address the great global heating emergency, and the development of a 1st movers coalition of countries to advance this agenda through global governance.
Please join us for this important and timely dialog.
Onwards,
Dennis Garrity
Please join HPAC forum this Thursday with Dr Soumitra Das, CEO of Healthy Climate Initiative, an affiliate national organization of HPAC that is focused on India, and Dr Delia Catacutan, CEO of Healthy Planet Action Philippines. More information below.
From: Garrity, Dennis <D.GA...@landscapealliance.org>
Sent: Monday, 22 June 2026 10:01 AM
To: rob...@rtulip.net; 'Healthy Planet Action Coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Planetary Restoration' <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Bruce <br...@chesdata.com>; Steering Circle HPAC <hpac-steer...@googlegroups.com>; Paul Gambill <pa...@paulgambill.com>; John Dixon <john....@uq.edu.au>; Howarth Bouis <H.B...@cgiar.org>; Anita Nzeh <an...@degrees.ngo>; Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>; Worms, Patrick <P.W...@landscapealliance.org>; godwin....@kalro.org; aasima....@gmail.com; Ricken Patel <ric...@gmail.com>; hans.va...@iier.eu; Chip Fay <ch...@samdhana.org>; Lorena Sabino <llsa...@up.edu.ph>; Angelo Matira <afma...@up.edu.ph>; Hans van der Loo <hansvan...@gmail.com>; Kelsey Mae Eusebio <kteu...@up.edu.ph>; Viella Tunay <vmt...@gmail.com>; Patricia Ann Sanchez <pjsa...@up.edu.ph>; esg...@up.edu.ph; cbgig...@up.edu.ph; kglo...@alum.up.edu.ph; Delia Catacutan <del.cat...@gmail.com>; wpel...@greenpeace.org; adorad...@gmail.com; Westermann Olaf <olaf.we...@crs.org>; Robert Winterbottom <rwinter...@gmail.com>; Geoffrey Heinrich <geoffrey...@gmail.com>; Mark Lynas <markl...@gmail.com>; Sara Scherr <sara....@gmail.com>; Lulu Hayanga <hayan...@gmail.com>; Miccolis, Andrew <A.Mic...@landscapealliance.org>; Cunha, Marcelo Inacio da <M.C...@landscapealliance.org>
Cc: Soumitra Das <soumi...@healthyclimateinitiative.org>; Dr. Soumitra Das <mr.soum...@gmail.com>; Delia Catacutan <del.cat...@gmail.com>
Subject: Invitation to HPAC members forum June 25th: Developing national organizations related to the HPAC agenda
Dear Colleagues,
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So am I
Please re-send the zoom link to use today
Thanks
John

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How long before we all give up? Hope there are no local problems preventing Dennis or Robbie from setting the session up.
Robert
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On Jun 25, 2026, at 2:48 PM, Garrity, Dennis <D.GA...@landscapealliance.org> wrote:Thanks, Robert. We are trying to set up a new zoom link at the moment.
Since most of us on the call with the original link, lets stay there !!
Otherwise we will lose even more time
Very sorry for failing to open the link, especially to Soumitra and Delia. I was sick and forgot to turn on my alarm. I usually open the meeting five minutes before the start. In future if I am late please call me on +61407866777
From: Garrity, Dennis <D.GA...@landscapealliance.org>
Sent: Friday, 26 June 2026 7:55 AM
To: rob...@rtulip.net; 'Healthy Planet Action Coalition' <healthy-planet-...@googlegroups.com>; 'Planetary Restoration' <planetary-...@googlegroups.com>; Bruce <br...@chesdata.com>; Steering Circle HPAC <hpac-steer...@googlegroups.com>; Paul Gambill <pa...@paulgambill.com>; John Dixon <john....@uq.edu.au>; Howarth Bouis <H.B...@cgiar.org>; Anita Nzeh <an...@degrees.ngo>; Glenn Weinreb <Glenn....@aspencore.com>; Worms, Patrick <P.W...@landscapealliance.org>; godwin....@kalro.org; aasima....@gmail.com; Ricken Patel <ric...@gmail.com>; hans.va...@iier.eu; Chip Fay <ch...@samdhana.org>; Lorena Sabino <llsa...@up.edu.ph>; Angelo Matira <afma...@up.edu.ph>; Hans van der Loo <hansvan...@gmail.com>; Kelsey Mae Eusebio <kteu...@up.edu.ph>; Viella Tunay <vmt...@gmail.com>; Patricia Ann Sanchez <pjsa...@up.edu.ph>; esg...@up.edu.ph; cbgig...@up.edu.ph; kglo...@alum.up.edu.ph; Delia Catacutan <del.cat...@gmail.com>; wpel...@greenpeace.org; adorad...@gmail.com; Westermann Olaf <olaf.we...@crs.org>; Robert Winterbottom <rwinter...@gmail.com>; Geoffrey Heinrich <geoffrey...@gmail.com>; Mark Lynas <markl...@gmail.com>; Sara Scherr <sara....@gmail.com>; Lulu Hayanga <hayan...@gmail.com>; Miccolis, Andrew <A.Mic...@landscapealliance.org>; Cunha, Marcelo Inacio da <M.C...@landscapealliance.org>
Cc: Soumitra Das <soumi...@healthyclimateinitiative.org>; Dr. Soumitra Das <mr.soum...@gmail.com>; Delia Catacutan <del.cat...@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Invitation to HPAC members forum June 25th: Developing national organizations related to the HPAC agenda
please use this new link