Fwd: Diminishing Arctic sea ice has lasting impacts on global climate

[Ron Baiman]

Thanks for sharing Renaud!  This study appears to systematically validate what many of us have been saying.  If not quickly slowed and reversed, the massive decline and imminent loss of Arctic sea ice (first Sept  “Blue Ocean” event potentially as soon as 2027 https://www.cpegonline.org/post/arctic-sea-ice-traige-carbon-cycle-restoration-and-a-renewable-energy-and-materials-economy ) has and will substantially escalate extreme climate events and increase the risk of crossing of other tipping points.  I’m forwarding to CDR groups as well as the study appears to  model this effect with varying levels of GHG emissions and reduction. 

Ron Baiman

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: Renaud de RICHTER <renaud.d...@gmail.com>
Date: April 29, 2022 at 12:15:23 AM CDT
To: Peter Wadhams <peter....@gmail.com>, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com>, Ron Baiman <rpba...@gmail.com>, Doug Grandt <answer...@mac.com>
Subject: Diminishing Arctic sea ice has lasting impacts on global climate



https://phys.org/news/2022-04-diminishing-arctic-sea-ice-impacts.html

[John Nissen]

Hi Ron,

My hopes were raised by the conclusions of this paper, but I am disappointed by its content.  The sea ice is indeed critical to weather extremes, but it is through driving Arctic Amplification.  AA reduces the Arctic-tropics temperature gradient, disrupting jet stream behaviour and making it tend to get stuck in places for weeks, thus amplifying hot or wet weather to create severe droughts or floods respectively, as we witnessed so dramatically last year in US and China respectively.  This behaviour is not captured in models, as noted by Michael Mann no less.  But it is one of several reasons why the Arctic needs to be refrozen as quickly as possible, another being sea level rise from land ice meltdown.

Cheers, John

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[Ron Baiman]

Thank you John.  After a more careful reread it appears that (if I understand your comment) you’re correct that the study links “multidecadal” variability of Arctic Amplification (AA) to sea ice, and not sea ice directly to extreme climate events (as my understanding is also that current climate models are not able to capture “intra -multidecadal” impacts of AA on extreme climate very well).  But the second part of this link from AA to the extreme climate effects that we are witnessing is alluded to in the paper in the quote from lead author Aiguo Dai:

“This is because sea surface anomalies in the North Atlantic and affect atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe, North America, West Africa and South America, leading to temperature and precipitation changes in these regions”

Best,

Ron 

Sent from my iPhone

On May 1, 2022, at 9:13 AM, John Nissen <johnnis...@gmail.com> wrote: