What cognitive habits are needed to be a better forecaster

[H simmens]

What will 2026 bring? To answer that question we need to forecast. 



Forecasting, however depends not just on knowledge but on learning and applying various cognitive habits. 

Philip Tetlock in his book Superforcasting: The Art and Science of Prediction has these recommendations by way of Clare Berlinski and her wonderful Substack The Cosmopolitan Globalist. 

1. Express predictions in terms of probabilities rather than binary outcomes. For example, instead of saying, “Netanyahu will no longer be the Prime Minister,” assign a percentage likelihood. When uncertain, provide a range of probabilities. Regularly compare your forecasts to real outcomes to calibrate yourself, particularly to judge whether you’re overconfident (or under-confident).

2. Break complex questions into simpler, more manageabl components.Instead of asking, “Will the United States experience a civil war,” ask:

   • What are its social and economic conditions?

   • How often have similar conditions led to civil wars historically?

   • What warning signs may currently be observed?

3. Use Fermi Estimation. Make rough, order-of-magnitude estimates by breaking a question into smaller factors you can estimate.

4. Start with base rates, then adjust for specifics. Anchor on historical data: Begin with statistical averages or historical frequencies for similar events. If predicting the likelihood of a coup in Country X, look at the global rate of coups in similar circumstances as a starting point. Once you have a base rate, refine it using the details unique to the Country X.

5. When new evidence arises, revise your probabilities accordingly instead of clinging to your initial estimate.

6. Avoid overreacting to single data points; assess the quality and context of the information.

7. Actively look for evidence and opinions that challenge your assumptions.

8. Collaborate with people who offer different expertise and viewpoints. (But avoid groupthink by ensuring diverse perspectives are heard.)

9. Be modest about certainty. Know the limits of your knowledge and avoid absolute predictions.

10. Counteract anchoring. People are prone to allowing an initial piece of information overly to influence their estimates. Don’t do that.

11. Overcome hindsight bias, too. Recognize that outcomes often seem obvious in retrospect but were not necessarily predictable beforehand.

12. Record your forecasts, the reasoning behind them, and the probabilities you assign. Review your track record regularly to identify patterns of success and failure.

13. Study your correct and incorrect predictions to refine your approach.

14. Ask others to identify blind spots to improve your calibration.

15. Use structured prediction markets to test and refine your skills.

16. Use existing statistical or econometric models as inputs.

17. Explore multiple possible futures rather than fixating on a single outcome. Ask, “What would have to be true for this prediction to succeed or fail?”

18. Specify the conditions under which your probability would increase or decrease.

    
    

    
    

    
    

    
    

    
    

    
    

Herb

Herb Simmens
Author of A Climate Vocabulary of the Future

“A SciencePoem and an Inspiration.” Kim Stanley Robinson
@herbsimmens
HerbSimmens.com

[Paul Beckwith]

Great info Herb. Thanks!!

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