Reversed tropical-Arctic teleconnection under climate change
Tom Goreau
Feedbacks can switch signs, making simple model predictions invalid!
- Article
- Open access
- Published: 17 November 2025
Reversed tropical-Arctic teleconnection under climate change,
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science volume 8, Article number: 368 (2025)
Arctic spring surface air temperature (SAT), as a critical climate indicator of spring climate change in the region, exhibits notable interannual variability amid rapid Arctic warming. However, the extent to which this variability is linked to the tropics remains unclear. This study identifies a reversal of the interannual relationship between winter (December–January–February) El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and subsequent spring (March–April–May) Arctic temperatures during recent decades. During the negative impact period, Arctic geopotential height anomalies associated with ENSO led to negative anomalies in atmospheric heat and water vapor transport from mid-latitudes to the Arctic, ultimately resulting in the cooling of Arctic SAT. In contrast, during the positive impact period, Arctic geopotential height anomalies linked to ENSO generated positive anomalies in atmospheric heat and water vapor transport from mid-latitudes to the Arctic, consequently resulting in Arctic SAT warming. The varying responses of high-latitude atmospheric circulation to ENSO during different periods are key drivers of the reversal in the tropical-Arctic teleconnection, which is closely tied to changes in the climatic state of the westerly jet induced by SST under climate change. This study advances understanding of the interannual variability mechanism of Arctic spring climate in the context of climate change and offers new insights into improving predictive capabilities.