job security
A J
Gmail
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camp .
Rafael Skodlar
your resume covers 20 years that shrinks to about 50%. And a 60+ year
old person will disagree with the other two :-)
I agree with Thomas about robotics in general. We need specialized
robots for different activities at home. We have different kinds of
appliances but none of them does everything. The dish washing machine
is separate from the laundry washing machine, for example. What we
need are appliances more suitable for robotics operations. Opening and
closing the doors, adding detergent, removing clothing could be done
by the machine itself.
Food packaging will also need to change. Some packaging is very bad
for people with limited vision, hands coordination etc. Noodle soups
for example come with different pouches of ingredients, some of which
need to be opened with scissors or a knife. No robot can open and
prepare most such soups or take a tea bag out of a box and make a tea.
Most examples of humanoid robots are good for sci-fi films and will
stay that way until this half-civilization collapses. Half humans
already set Tesla cars on fire so it's just a matter of time before
they move on to burn robots and data centers where AI sucks electric
power.
Here is the ultimate robot challenge; cut nails on hands or feet of
live human beings!
Rafael
camp .
Stephen Williams
A commodity robot, especially substantially open source, could compete well with all of these products.
There are several aspects which might be subsystems or components that become open or closed commodities. A great hand - for a reasonable price. Good motors + drivers. Joint mechanisms. And the compute + main sensors (camera, positioning, audio, networking) - which might be a mobile phone and/or more.
For typical humanoid robots, there probably won't be auto company like vertical integration.
What will be nice, at some point, are standard interconnect +
power + communication points & subsystems - another potential
open or closed subsystem.
Stephen
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Stephen D.
Williams
Founder: VolksDroid, Blue Scholar Foundation |
Gmail
On Apr 24, 2025, at 5:36 PM, 'Stephen Williams' via HomeBrew Robotics Club <hbrob...@googlegroups.com> wrote:
Chris Albertson
> On Apr 26, 2025, at 11:56 AM, Gmail <thomas...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> I suppose eventually there will be mechanical standards akin to ROS.
>
The trouble is the AI is not at all something one person or a small group can do. Even the most trivial models cost $100M to create. The startup cost is “many billions”. Investers will want to see a return.
But today we just do not have the technology to do this at any price.
My guess is that “real AI” will have to wait for cheaper and larger quantum computing. But “cheaper” is relative. "Quantum stuff” will always need valuum chambers and cryogenic coolers and very low-noise electronics and hence a 7 or 8 figure price. This is a 22nd century thing. This century we have LLMs that have no concept even of their own existence.
A J
Stephen Williams
Training an LLM with all of the text, video, and audio knowledge
on the Internet (or at least a substantial fraction) is a massive
compute problem. I think better algorithms will cut that a lot
soon, but it will remain large. Training a robot to have
spatial-physical control, good basic eye / hand coordination is a
far simpler problem. A reasonably good vision system is more, but
that is reusable broadly. And that robot's system can leverage
the general intelligence of the big models without retraining,
only tuning & layering. We need more compute, but for the
robot maybe only something like 8 times the power of a Mac Studio
M3Ultra 512GB, for half the power (200w rather than <400w). Or
very fast low latency streaming to a nearby computer + cloud,
which is fine for a range of things. A nearby brain in a box is a
reasonable approach for a while, including in nearby vehicles.
The robot hardware is making progress, but still lacking good motor optimization plus much better mechanical design. And everything complex still costs too much. The Tesollo DG-5F is $17k each:
https://www.robotshop.com/products/tesollo-delto-gripper-5finger
Looks like that has a direct-drive servo in every finger joint: There is no room for any other linkage except hidden power + bearings. An interesting approach, but not viable for broad use. A robot hand should have 30-100 lb grip strength. I just checked: I can squeeze 64lbs with each hand.
Stephen
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