This is the classic “Buy vs Rent” decision that applies to many things, not just AI.
As I see it, I can get a reasonable amount of AI computing for free. But if I use a lot, then I have to pay for it. This is OK up to the next limit, where it is cheaper to buy a system than to rent time. But you must be a big user to justify the cost of buying. Don’t buy anything until you are saying to yourself, “These AI Cloud subscriptions are killing me.” Only then can you justify spending $5K or $10K for a local system.
But there was so much talk about humanoid robots here. The good thing about humanoid robots is the model that controls locomotion is TINY compared to the LLMs that handle text. The locomotion models can run on microcontrollers as they have only thousands of parameters, not billions.
No, that will never happen. What will happen is your expectations will go up, and the new models will be larger. The cost of the computer will ALWAYS be at that economic point where you make the Buy vs Rent calculation. You might buy if there is a 1-year breakeven. That 1-year breakeven price point might always stay at $10K, but the technology might move. I think the cost of an “AI Computer” will always be about the cost of renting heavy-use AI for a straight year.
If you are a hobbyist, you can control the price of the hobby by choosing to work on a different part of the problem. For example, with humanoid robots, the first steps don’t require much cost; simulation and RL training is easy even on a midrange PC/Mac, and CAD software can be free. You’d be years into the project before you needed to spend much. But there are other approaches that are heavy up-front costs. Just don't do that.