Carrington, anyone?

[David G. McGaw]

First CME (of several) has just hit, Kp=8 already, G4 storm!

73,

David N1HAC

[Ron KF7ZN]

I am not worried Dave, I have my tinfoil hat in place , I have removed all magnets from the fridge and retrieved my old paper maps to get me where I need to go. I am ready!!. 

Have a nice day!

Ron Wilcox KF7ZN

RN, BHS, BSN, CCM

HamSCI/NASA Citizen Science

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[Patricia Reiff]

yeah, our Boyle Index hit 560, the largest we have seen in a long time (50 nT southward)

https://mms.rice.edu/forecast.html

Our predicted Kp of 8- was just now measured by NOAA.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/

[James Kennedy]

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[Nicholas Hall-Patch]

That's the spirit, Ron.

The animation of the D region and polar area absorption going bananas this morning is quite something:

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/d-region-absorption-predictions-d-rap

73

Nick

VE7DXR

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[Phil Erickson]

Hi Pat!

  Perhaps a question about the Boyle index in times like these - here's the screenshot:

\

  If the index is nearly 550, any clue what the polar cap potential really will be for this interval, or are we far enough off the end of the curve that the answer isn't known until later when we look back?

  [For the general HamSCI audience: the polar cap potential is directly related to the strength of high latitude ionospheric convection and the expansion of the convection pattern to lower and lower latitudes during storms.]

73

Phil W1PJE

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----
Phil Erickson
phil.e...@gmail.com

[David Themens]

I'm not going to comment on the hyperbole, but STEREO (a few hours ahead of Earth in a solar wind sense) is seeing some pretty intense activity... 

Solar Wind Bz just dipped to -70nT at STEREO.

Corresponding observations by ACE at Earth:

On the Earth side, the first CME front hit about an hour ago with Hp30 (the 30-minute version of Kp) reaching about 8+ so far, but that's before the second front hits, which is what drove that -70nT Bz at STEREO. 

We'll have to wait and see what comes of this, but so far it looks like we're in for an interesting few hours.

Cheers,

David

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[Phil Erickson]

Hi David,

  For general consumption, what are the links you used for the STEREO and Hp30 real time data?  

73

Phil

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[David Themens]

Hi,

Sorry about that. Here are the links:

Hp30: https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/en/hp30-hp60

STEREO: https://stereo-ssc.nascom.nasa.gov/beacon/beacon_insitu.shtml

ACE: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/ace-real-time-solar-wind

Cheers,

David

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[Patricia Reiff]

Hi, yes, well the Boyle Index is the ASYMPTOTIC polar cap potential IF the input is steady for 4-5 hours (giving the atmosphere time to speed up, and the polar cap size to increase, reducing the need for the field-aligned currents).  Because of the limitations of the field aligned currents, the actual measured potential across the polar cap typically will saturate in the 160-200 kV region.  That’s why we call it an INDEX not a potential, even though it does have units of potential.

What we discovered from our neural networks is that even though the ionospheric potential saturates, the magnetospheric response is still significantly higher for B I= 400 than BI = 160.  

Our trained forecast functions go back about 12 hours for Kp, 24 hours for DsT, and 3 hours for AE, with the most recent measurements weighted the most strongly. 

You may notice that the BI has already come a good ways back down.

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[David G. McGaw]

Sorry for the hyperbole, but it does catch one's attention.  No matter what, this should be fun.  We have our AM Doppler network up.

David N1HAC

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[David Eckhardt]

Yes, Ron.  I have the 2018 Jeep with all its digital electronics parked in the garage which is totally metal clad, roof and all, so.......

Dave - WØLEV

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Dave - WØLEV

[Dave Doler]

G5 observed at 6:54 p.m. EDT

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g5-conditions-observed

[Bob Gerzoff]

Aurora visible here in GA!

 

73,

Bob WK2Y

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[Ward Silver]

Also in eastern MO (St Charles) - pinkish sky, despite too much ambient light.

73, Ward N0AX

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[Kerry Case]

Aurora very nice up here in western Maine 

N1URT

KERRY

Sent from my iPad

On May 10, 2024, at 11:04 PM, Ward Silver <hwar...@gmail.com> wrote:



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[Johnson Francis]

We had a near radio black out on the 40m band at around 6.55 am local time (0125z). We were having our regular roundtable on 7050 kHz, with several stations coming in at 5,9+20dB. All of a sudden all stations beyond 200 km disappeared from the screen. Nearby stations could contact each other with great difficulty. Prior to that even stations at 1300 km were coming in well. 

The single feeble waterfall seen here is a station within 200 km, which usually has a dense waterfall at that time.

Improved a bit about 50 min into the event with couple of nearby stations coming up on the waterfall:

Normally it is a busy time here on 40m with at least 5-6 waterfalls with local roundtable chats going on.

There is a net going on at 7080 kHz, but most of the stations are quite feeble and barely audible, with no signal on the waterfall display.

73 de Jon, VU2JO

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[David G. McGaw]

All WWV stations up through 25MHz were gone this afternoon.  Aurora visible overhead here in NH between 10:30 PM and 11 PM local, then clouds moved in.

David N1HAC

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[Rodrigo Ramos Vargas]

Auroras visible in Chillán, Chile! This city is located 405 kilometers from Santiago to the south. There are many reports from Chillán down to Punta Arenas next to Antarctica. Here some pictures taken by geophysicist Enrique Carrasco, Universidad de Concepción / Universidad Adventista de Chile from CinFAA / CInC (Centro Interuniversitario de Física de la Alta Atmósfera - Centro de Instrumentación Científica) Chillán, Chile. These pictures were taken from a drone due to the fog and chimney smoke (smog).

Pictures attached. 

Kind regards from Chile 🇨🇱!

73

CD3RPQ 

[Johnson Francis]

Thanks for sharing the nice pictures.

73 de Jon, VU2JO

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[Steve Kaeppler]

Hi All-

Will just add that we had a nice how over Clemson, SC last night. I
know people saw it further to the south.

Looks like another Xclass flare happened yesterday too, so that would
explain the radio black out.

This looks like this will be an event I am sure we will be studying in
the community in the near future!

73,
Steve

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--

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Steve Kaeppler
steve.k...@gmail.com
cell: 262-707-0932
Amateur Radio Call: AD0AE/6

[Steve Kaeppler]

nice show... sorry

[Steve Cerwin]

My son Ted Cerwin gave me permission to post his amazing Aurora photo from San Antonio, TX.

.

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[David Themens]

We've been pinned at M-class and above X-Ray fluxes for most of the week with 11 X-class flares in between. Not great propagation conditions even ignoring the current geomagnetic conditions and solar proton event.  

When you add on that we're at very high geomagnetic activity during a solar proton event, polar cap absorption is likely starting to border on needing a rename to midlatitude absorption event. The rigidity cutoff is so low in latitude that Millstone Hill may be able to pick up the D-Region enhancement, if they run a low altitude-optimized run.  

Lots of interesting science ahead.

Cheers,

David

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[Philip Gladstone]

We had a nice show last night in Massachusetts

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[Patricia Reiff]

Wow, thanks

On May 11, 2024, at 7:15 AM, Steve Cerwin <st...@cerwinconsulting.com> wrote:

My son Ted Cerwin gave me permission to post his amazing Aurora photo from San Antonio, TX.

<IMG_1899.jpeg>.

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[cam cushingc]

Excellent show from southern Wisconsin. (EN52fu)

Cam W7CAM

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[Brian Campbell]

My old Army buddy in Enterprise Alabama took this picture last night.

Brian Campbell

Fate, TX

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--

SFC Brian Campbell
USA, Retired
Fate, TX

Officers: Making Simple Shit Hard Since 1775

[Johnson Francis]

Spectacular images!

de Jon, VU2JO

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