Numbers don’t add up to Huge CME Event

[N5PA]

I have been keeping an eye on the numbers since yesterday, and like you said, it only caused a little blip! Local Weatherman was hyping it up and was giving percentages of seeing Aurora in the Deep South!  NOT! But the numbers never added up!

73,
Alan Clark, N5PA
Ellisville, MS
Email:  n5...@n5pa.com
URL:  http://www.n5pa.com

[Steve Kaeppler]

Hi Alan-

It would certainly be cool to see some aurora in the deep south!

I think this CME is a really good example of how our community still
has a long way to go in terms of forecasting, which is by no means a
trivial problem. And for this community in particular, providing data
during the intervals when we do have a disturbed ionosphere.

73,
Steve

> --
> Please follow the HamSCI Community Participation Guidelines at http://hamsci.org/hamsci-community-participation-guidelines.
> ---
> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "HamSCI" group.
> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to hamsci+un...@googlegroups.com.
> To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/3D748AD3-1704-4D3E-A86D-3E2BEF100294%40n5pa.com.



--

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Steve Kaeppler
steve.k...@gmail.com
cell: 262-707-0932
Amateur Radio Call: AD0AE/6

[n5pa]

Steve:

I have only seen them in the Deep South once and that was back in the early 80’s.  But I have seen them in Canada and Alaska.  Wish we could enjoy them here on a regular basis.  But 90 miles off the Gulf of Mexico makes the odds very slim.  We can only hope!

73,
Alan Clark, N5PA
Ellisville, MS
Email:  n5...@n5pa.com
URL:  http://www.n5pa.com

On Dec 10, 2020, at 7:26 PM, Steve Kaeppler <steve.k...@gmail.com> wrote:

Hi Alan-

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CANK6cPrpayUBLdKTQgizATysWy1OL5jynnQeQMcWT-T9GA66pg%40mail.gmail.com.

[David G. McGaw]

When the CME hit, Bz went wild for a short time but then settled down to be positive, so it passed by with minimal effect.  We don't know the direction of the field until it passes the ACE/DSCOVR spacecraft, on the order of 45 min to 1:30 ahead of the Earth, so we cannot predict in advance, can only give chances.

73,

David N1HAC

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/765997E3-A902-420E-8C33-74A208540CD9%40gmail.com.

[Terry Bullett]

As for the ionosphere effect, it was barely statistically significant.
Much over-rated, 

The foF2 stayed within the previous week's 'normal' variation. At least for Boulder. 

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/BC840_foF2.png

Terry WØASP

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/4b90dd68-4f81-a72d-6936-9e6784faf836%40dartmouth.edu.

-- 
Dr. Terry Bullett          WØASP 
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA/NCEI)
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES)
Terry....@noaa.gov    303-497-4788  
"Life is Complex.  It has a Real part and an Imaginary part." 

[Phil Erickson]

Hi Terry,

  I agree about the forecast failure.  It would be interesting though to see why NOAA SWPC got it so wrong.  

  Is the ionosonde link you gave stable in that if I hit it, I always get the latest plot?  It's very handy.  Sure wish I had it for station MHJ45 (Millstone Hill)...

73

Phil W1PJE

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/94ab9673-e956-f5a0-bab1-9c3cedaf7c0d%40noaa.gov.

--

----
Phil Erickson
phil.e...@gmail.com

[Patricia Reiff]

Well, I wasn’t alarmed enough to send out a special alert to my "spacalrt" system.

Why?

Well, for the *really big* events, there is a halo CME, centered and expanding uniformly around the sun, saying the CME is pointed our way

AND there is a HUGE amount of "snow" on the LASCO coronagraph, from the energetic particles hitting 

the detector.

When I heard the announcement, I immediately downloaded the coronagraph movie and saw neither of these.

(I used my free SpaceWeather software to get the movies) Download from:  http://mms.rice.edu/mms/spaceweather_software.php

the LASCO coronal movies in the software are in SpaceWeather/theSunToday/InnerSolarCorona and OuterSolarCorona.

and stills can be found directly here:   https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html

gif movies can be here:  https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime/gif/

Sample C2 and C3 movies of CMEs that caused a significant storm are in our software at 

    SpaceWeather/theViolentSun/

and similar ones can be gotten from the SOHO site at:  https://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/bestofsoho/Movies/flares.html

So, don’t believe the hype until you view the C2 and C3 movies for yourself.

Our space weather forecast is unfortunately much shorter range (1-3 hours) but higher fidelity.  Our forecast just touched Kp 4 which is pretty insignificant.  The really big storms will have the Boyle Index over 250. 

  http://mms.rice.edu/mms/forecast.php

(you can subscribe to our "spacalrt" email list on that page.)

Note we are moving our space.rice.edu server to a different machine and there may be some interruption over the next couple of weeks.

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAAZaqEvNg_QtHi6VXWGbaHQQGVLGBR3jcTKpOiKxE6JAYFvUZQ%40mail.gmail.com.

[Lanzerotti, Louis J.]

There has been such an absence of solar activity during the recent solar minimum conditions that everyone is anxious to have a little excitement.   

I don't blame them, and indeed join them, in hoping for some solar and geomagnetic activity from nature.

Lou 

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/A5121015-74DE-4D93-BD08-C1197B3AA938%40gmail.com.

[Mike Ruohoniemi]

Hello Pat,

Thank you for this note about the non-event. We SuperDARNers were excited enough to go to some trouble to prepare our radars to observe the expected event in real time.

Your explanation is very helpful and I would like to share it with our students here. In fact I'd like to keep a record of it on-line for quick access. Here I am checking on your comfort level with the way I have summarized it and with visibility.

First, I have drawn up a News item, which is currently a bit buried on our website but could be elevated to appear on the front page for a timed period:

http://vt.superdarn.org/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=377

Second, I have posted a link to this News  item (reasonably permanent) on our 'Space Weather Portal' page at  

http://vt.superdarn.org/tiki-index.php?page=Space+Weather+Portal

This is named "Pat Reiff's comment on predicting CME-induced big events" and follows a link to the Rice forecast page (your note prompted me to check and correct the link we had there previously).

Let me know if you have any concerns. 

And congratulations on getting this right!

Regards,

Mike

Dr. J. Michael Ruohoniemi
Professor
Virginia Tech
Durham Hall, Room 341
1145 Perry St.
Blacksburg, VA  
USA

E: mik...@vt.edu 

  

On Fri, Dec 11, 2020 at 10:28 AM Patricia Reiff <eplane...@gmail.com> wrote:

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/A5121015-74DE-4D93-BD08-C1197B3AA938%40gmail.com.

[Ethan Miller K8GU]

Pat/Mike,

Great writeup...I would also like to share this with some other groups
of hams once it has been blessed for release!

--Ethan.

> To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAE_gk%2BMp1xGjpSsPGLo32fnM5kKqw6BJ118fTx72BxUWx5ifZw%40mail.gmail.com.



--
http://www.k8gu.com/
Repair. Re-use. Re-purpose. Recycle.

[Terry Bullett]

Hi Phil,

I don't know their criteria for a forecast, so I can't comment. 

The link you have is an image updated very 5 minutes.  New data are added as they come in, usually only 5 minutes old.   I do this for all of the ionosondes which I get data.   The next higher link will allow station selection:
https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/RealTime_foF2.html
Data rate vary based on the instrument.

I find these plots useful for situational awareness of the 'normal' variability of the ionosphere, plus the effects of ongoing storms.

This one hit Australia harder than the US. 

https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/rt-iono/realtime/LM42B_foF2.png

I would be happy to make such displays for MHJ45, If someone would send me the data from Millstone Hill....

73,
Terry  WØASP

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAAZaqEvNg_QtHi6VXWGbaHQQGVLGBR3jcTKpOiKxE6JAYFvUZQ%40mail.gmail.com.

[Phil Erickson]

Hi Terry,

  I will contact you off-list.

73

Phil W1PJE

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/a5302d86-c2ae-bfcd-74b5-47767b9c5119%40noaa.gov.

[Patricia Reiff]

Sure, Mike, you are welcome to share my comments. 

Only request - the first time you put my name into an article, use the full "Patricia" so they know I’m a YL.

For what it’s worth, we got auroras in the Houston suburbs during the March ’89 event, and only one other one I know of since then.  (memory fails… maybe the halloween storm?)

The farmers all thought their neighbor’s fields were on fire from the red glow and more than one Volunteer Fire Department was called out.  

A friend sent me a photo but it’s pretty dim, and it's on a slide.  I should try to get it scanned I guess.  Our realtime forecast using Boyle has been running since 2003 (and the halloween storm was the first Red Alert we sent out). 

Also, for the general public, I have done a few talks this fall about space weather and major events (that you are welcome to link to).

It shows the examples of halo CME’s.

Here is the one from "solar week":  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4saYpQIet0g

and here is a talk for the Katy Amateur Radio Society which is a bit more technical:  

    https://youtu.be/kiccwcLwjFc

…Pat  W5TAR

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAE_gk%2BMp1xGjpSsPGLo32fnM5kKqw6BJ118fTx72BxUWx5ifZw%40mail.gmail.com.

[Mike Ruohoniemi]

Thanks, Pat! I made the first name occurrence in each text block 'Patricia'. Also the News item is now on our front page. I added the links to your presentations. Now I have to find a way to watch the 'Cobra' TV series.

The St. Patrick's Day event in 2015 produced aurora visible from here (southwestern Virginia, 37 deg geographic latitude). We made a News item from it that included a photo from a nearby mountain lookout:

http://vt.superdarn.org/tiki-read_article.php?articleId=209

I am hoping to reproduce the photographic feat some day (apparently not today).

Thanks again,

Mike