Cycle 25: ‘Half Time Update’ - Where We Are vs. the Predictions

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Gary Mikitin, AF8A

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Sep 26, 2025, 5:32:50 PM (3 days ago) Sep 26

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Hello HamSCI - Drs. Frank Howell and Scott McIntosh have authored a blog post regarding the progress of Solar Cycle 25. The paper goes further, discussing a possible paradigm shift in the tools and methods used in making predictions of solar activity. It can be viewed here . (If your interest is solely in Cycle 25’s progress, you may wish to skip ahead to the section titled ’Statistical Comparison of the Two Cycle 25 Forecasts’. If you have an interest in predictive science, or the history of science and technology, I recommend reading the entire post.)

The post builds on the work of Dr. McIntosh and his team, as presented in the RSGB’s RadCom magazine (2022) and in many other journals.

Both Drs. Howell and McIntosh are well known contributors to the HamSCI community. For instance, Dr. Howell was a presenter on an early HamSCI Solar Eclipse QSO Party Zoom session (2022) and Dr. McIntosh was the Keynote Speaker at the 2024 HamSCI Workshop.