Here is what I sent to CNN in conjunction with my interview today: (looks like Houston is less and less likely, but London has two chances to get hit)
I have added the approximate location of the USA prediction in Blue (from the Space Force). The difference is caused by different assumptions about the atmosphere, spacecraft orientation, etc.
Note the region in between includes a swath across the UK, Europe, Ukraine, the "stans" (including Kazakstan) and India.
Here is the path over London. It will be daylight so they probably won’t be able to see it unless it is actively landing nearby:
If it is an orbit earlier, it goes through France, Prague, Russia, southeast Asia and Australia
If it is an orbit later, it will also go over London, then through europe and the arabian peninsula.
If it is two orbits later, it can come through Mexico and the US, directly over Houston (but that is unlikely)
Hi Pat!
I’m on the riverside chat room. I can see you but it doesn’t seem like you can hear me. Can you double check your audio is on? Thanks!
Lorenzo
Director, Video Editorial