Update on potential meteor scatter opportunity: Cosmos-482 uncontrolled reentry tomorrow morning ET

[Phil Erickson]

Hi all,

  I recently saw a number of threads here on meteor scatter.  Maybe I also remembered some discussion of an upcoming uncontrolled satellite re-entry:

"On 10 May, an uncontrolled reentry will take place of the Cosmos-482 descent craft, a Venera landing capsule that launched 53 years ago. It was meant to land on Venus, but its launcher never escaped Earth’s gravity. Now, the descent craft will come down at a point between 52° North and 52° South of the equator. As the reentry comes closer, the predictions will become more precise in the updates directly below (most recent shown first)."

https://blogs.esa.int/rocketscience/2025/05/07/reentry-prediction-soviet-era-venera-venus-lander-cosmos-482-descent-craft/

  The ESA blog above has updating predictions on the reentry time.  Currently, it is predicted for 0626 UTC on 2025-05-10 (post-midnight local time on the US east coast): but "The uncertainty in this prediction is now +/- 4.35 hours." 

  Prof. Pat Reiff at Rice, whom I know is on this list, figured out that this could occur over Texas depending on when the reentry occurs exactly (especially if it's a bit late).  Perhaps she could comment more here!

  Anyhow, if you have VHF meteor scatter systems, I would turn them on if possible this evening.

73

Phil W1PJE

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Phil Erickson
phil.e...@gmail.com

[Dana Whitlow]

Thanks, Phil.

Very roughly 20 years ago I lived in the Portland (OR) area

when the NASA "Stardust" re-entered for a controlled

landing in the northern Nevada desert.  I had just begun

playing around with my first SDR (SDR-14 IIRC).  So I

decided to have some fun with that.  I did have to kluge

a downconverter from the TV chan 3 frequency to get

within the tuning range of the SDR-14,   Chan 3 because

that was the only clear channel available in the low-VHF

range at the time at my location.  My idea was to listen

for scattered signals at the channel 3 visual carrier

frequency, from stations several hundred miles to my

south.  You do remember what the "visual carrier" was,

don't you?

In testing this arrangement I occasionally heard brief

"bursts" on frequency, which I figured were "ordinary"

meteor scatter events.

So, on the appropriate day I set the SDR's recorder function

to begin a few minutes before the scheduled re-entry, then

went for a walk to a nearby location where I had a reasonably

low southern horizon.  

I never say anything visually, but upon returning home I 

found a delightfully-long "burst", which persisted for more

than a minute.

Speaking of TV signals, I had been disappointed at the

advent of ATSC 1.0 digital TV, until I learned of that

format's pilot tone.  I have since found that that's easy

to hear and analyze as long as one keeps the analysis

BW reasonably small (a few Hz).  Then I went through

the same worry when ATSC 3.0 came out, but again was

delighted to learn of the lower and upper pilot tones

which are CW as long as one keeps the analysis BW

below 8 Hz.  These, too, are now easy targets for me.

So, I am hoping I can get word on a fairly tight re-entry

location and time, to try my luck with the Soviet S/C.

Dana   (K8YUM still trying to renew)

Kerrville, TX

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[Patricia Reiff]

Hi, yeah the present "breakup" (as opposed to landing) time is estimated to be 0626 UT (ESA) or 0552 (Space Force), +/- 4 hours

The final tracks of course are the same.  The best guess breakup is near the red dot (ESA) or in the atlantic (SF), with of course europe in between!

ONLY if it survives another 2.-5 - 3 hours (within uncertainty, but not by much), will the track pass over mexico and the US  (see the label that says +2:08:48 in Mexico).

So I fear is will be unlikely but still possible to have it survive that long, but who knows.  I’m still going to get up because it passes EXACTLY over Houston at 03:53.  If it survives, it will go near Louisville, Cincinnati, Syracuse and Montreal, but only if it’s near dawn will it be solar illuminated.  (Ohio to Maine). In Houston it will be visible only if it is actively burning up.  Put in your location in heavens-above.com, go to the Cosmos Predictions, and choose "all passes"  (not just visible passes).  It will give you the sky view (if visible) and you can click on the ground track (Like I have for Houston below).  Good luck!!

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