Earth directed CME to hit tomorrow 12/9

[Robert Benedict]

Long duration C7.4 flare with earth directed CME.

https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/423/20201208-earth-directed-coronal-mass-ejection.html

   73

     Bob   KD8CGH

--

[Alec Engell]

CME just hit and seems to have good Bz. 

--
Please follow the HamSCI Community Participation Guidelines at http://hamsci.org/hamsci-community-participation-guidelines.
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "HamSCI" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to hamsci+un...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CACe_BLHv3FLFuFXWPfYYV7b0HynyGavaO_A6hj8HHXvbfbxEpQ%40mail.gmail.com.

--

Alec Engell
Principal Scientist

C: 978.621.5880

aen...@nextgenfed.com
NextGen Federal Systems, LLC
HUBZone Certified #44547

Bozeman, MT 59715

[Alec Engell]

https://www.lmsal.com/solarsoft/latest_events/

[Ward Silver]

Does "good Bz" mean "good for HF propagation" (Bz aligned north) or "good for terrific aurora displays" (Bz aligned south)?  "Good" has two very different meanings for the radio amateurs :-)

73, Ward N0AX

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CALgKVXY7zxV_cZmfMrHsMciW%3Du%2Bs%2B3NcUj2dqV1LDE%3D28mpXVA%40mail.gmail.com.

[Phil Erickson]

Hi Ward,

  A strong solar wind |B|, and a southward Bz in particular, loads energy into the magnetosphere in the dayside region.  That energy eventually winds up in the tail where things like magnetic reconnection and fast flows drive field aligned currents and substorms that cause geomagnetic storms and auroral displays and ionospheric structuring / expansion of the high latitude region.  In this case, it's good for science but bad for smooth HF propagation, sadly.

73

Phil W1PJE

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAFr7d%3DqXH68pmePz%2B18mOE4omCMmP4UW%3DYB%2Buc8x52JfnbK%2BjQ%40mail.gmail.com.

--

----
Phil Erickson
phil.e...@gmail.com

[Ward Silver]

Is the Bz on this northward or southward.  Asking for a friend :-)

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAAZaqEv%2BcWoACiU6yMLKuufjNK3rh8rLoxkFme2KJtX-umU8wg%40mail.gmail.com.

[Phil Erickson]

Hi Ward,

  Southward Bz.  Not that strong really (15 to 10 nT magnitude).  Here's something I wrote in another place, edited:

CME arrived at the L1 Lagrange point (out in front of Earth on the Sun line) at 0130 UTC today with a southward Bz in the solar wind (more geoeffective than a northward Bz). Time from the L1 point projecting forward to impacts on the magnetic field is typically 45 to 60 minutes, so I'd guess effects began at 0230 UTC today. Kp is already 4 for 00 - 03 UTC today, which agrees with increase in magnetic activity, but the auroral boundaries have not expanded yet and I don't see anything on the Sodankyla magnetometer in Finland. There could be still a potential for significant nighttime ionospheric structuring that, if it occurred, can disrupt transcontinental links. Relative strength of this disturbance will need to wait for more data as the hours go on.

Tomorrow, the ionosphere could exhibit a positive phase response = increased electron density in the noontime / afternoon sector, or negative phase response = reduced electron density in daytime. These two limits are driven by two different physical pathways (change in neutral composition = increasing loss and decreased density; electrodynamic effects = the ionosphere moves upwards where its decay slows so electron density overall increases). They will of course have different HF propagation consequences: higher electron density allows higher frequency bands to open compared to quiet conditions, while lower electron density will close these bands down compared to quiet conditions. 

If possible, I suggest you get out the radio tomorrow daytime and make some QSOs (or try to do so) on 17 / 15 / 12 / 10 meters. See what happens.

73

Phil

PS:  FT8 shows strong openings on 20 meters to South America from North America right now, even though both ends are in darkness.  Look at PSKReporter.

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAFr7d%3DqYEA1eJaMrx0%3D6LV3br46FEdU7yCdGcKVKUPYAL7y-oQ%40mail.gmail.com.

[Ward Silver]

Sounds encouraging!  10 meters might be a real wild card this weekend.  I will definitely check out the high bands tomorrow - I should be in the station, er, office pretty much all day.

And then there is a meteor shower peaking on Sunday, I think.  So much propagation, so little time :-)

73, Ward N0AX

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAAZaqEvGwOWUtRuTcYAoYpA-Qfx6NJ%3DpW9Y65ACqWe8fKn3agg%40mail.gmail.com.

[Phil Erickson]

Hi Ward,

  We are running Millstone Hill tomorrow to catch storm activity, and the positive vs. negative phase question is always a central one in storm response.  We're finding out now that composition effects from the neutral atmosphere, neutral wind changes, and electrodynamic effects can all be players depending on the storm - causing positive or negative responses.  Sadly, neutral response is much tougher to measure observationally compared to charged particles / ionosphere, which responds to probing radio waves.

  So please report back on the higher bands tomorrow.  This weekend could be either worse or better for 10 meters, depending on which of these responses occurs.  It depends a lot on the timing of the storm arrival; in this case, the primary one arrived in the evening in N America, so any neutral atmosphere changes are happening now while the sun is not shining here.  That would prefer a positive phase response tomorrow = more electron density = better higher bands.  

  But if we get another perhaps stronger shock arrival tomorrow evening as NOAA predicts, then the weekend is anyone's guess since the system would not have time to relax to normal state (takes several days) before getting hit again - in those cases, transport takes over and things depends more on regional conditions at that point = more variability.

73

Phil W1PJE

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAFr7d%3DrD4eZeDHbARujVWyRzL1BDFQqzh0VuDp55yAHipOoyZQ%40mail.gmail.com.

[Ward Silver]

There are frequent anecdotal reports that the first 24 hours of a geomagnetic storm as it builds up can be very good, particularly on the low bands.  Then propagation deteriorates to a steady disturbed state and gradually recovers.  I think it is too soon for the CME impact a couple of hours ago to have much of an effect but if I wake up before sunrise tomorrow, I'll check 160 meters.  The RBN is probably going to be full of a lot of good data points.

73, Ward N0AX

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAAZaqEuGJ%2Bi9-VE10tmX42n0Umua9S%2BbcOEa%2B7qJstDvT6b%2BZg%40mail.gmail.com.

[Kristina Collins]

As luck would have it, data collection just started for the December Eclipse Festival, so I have a whole bunch of .WAV recordings around 10 MHz of the past UTC day: https://cwru.app.box.com/folder/124240230698

More files will be coming in over the course of the next week; the eclipse is on the 14th and data collection ends on the 16th. Participation map: https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/edit?mid=1Sxz8d1Z5T2WrtY9f_0Jp1mB1qfgsqCoz

Anything we might look for in that frequency range?

-KC

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAFr7d%3DrHTT0cDaoONjOJ2Q0hBTg%3Dp0X3v6WagfaBMvKfGQHnAQ%40mail.gmail.com.

[Phil Erickson]

Hi Kristina,

  You need a good pre-storm baseline (or a baseline far enough removed from the storm that things have relaxed back to quiet state).  So try and use your existing data to examine the quiet typical Dopplers, and then look for deviations over the next several days.  We can tell you after the fact where the storm evolved in time by examining the Dst index (equatorial magnetic field reduction; measures intensity of the ring current; you can identify storm expansion, main phase, and recovery phase).

73

Phil 

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAEeerr6KvSJC6wxCudRZJ%3DryG_-h%2Brj3uFysGFTxX%3DvxUHrN2Q%40mail.gmail.com.

[Gerry Creager]

on my 15Z net on 5MHz for another operation, we actually had a combination of more buzzing-like noise, and good overall propagation. I expect the 15MHz net this afternoon will also be interesting.

73

gerry n5jxs

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/CAAZaqEu5OJBFoL8qAzXMU8Tx3SPhtcJvC227n9MPsjqeyKRPkg%40mail.gmail.com.

--

Gerry Creager N5JXS

It's kind of fun to do the impossible. -- Walt Disney

[James Secan]

Either the CME wasn't as large as predicted, or it missed the earth (it happens), or the timing was off (also happens).  As the attached image (from https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/kpsw.html) shows, we did have a small blip just after 00UT today, but it wasn’t much of a hit.  Bottom three panels are from the DSCOVR satellite (bottom to top: solar-wind bulk speed, density, and Bz (black) and Btot (grey)), next is the Hp component of the geostationary-orbit geomagnetic field from GOES-16, and the top panel is Kp predicted and observed.  (More info at the link above.)

For a strong geomagnetic storm generating mid-latitude aurora you need Bz south (negative on this plot) at -20 nT or more, a high density, and a high solar wind.

Jim

==================================
James Secan
Senior Research Scientist, Retired
NorthWest Research Associates, Inc
4118 148th Ave NE
Redmond, WA  98052
(206) 430-0109 (cell)
==================================

3222 NE 89th St
Seattle, WA 98115
(206) 430-0109

[John Magliacane]

On Thursday, December 10, 2020, 01:01:52 PM EST, James Secan <james...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Either the CME wasn't as large as predicted, or it missed the earth (it happens), or the timing was off (also happens).
> As the attached image (from https://spawx.nwra.com/spawx/kpsw.html) shows, we did have a small blip just after 00UT
> today, but it wasn’t much of a hit.

Spaceweatherlive.com is reporting, "In all honesty we have to conclude that the impact is much weaker than anticipated."

Nevertheless, I made frequency measurements of Canadian Time and Frequency radio station CHU's carrier at 3.330 MHz yesterday from New Jersey (a 590.20 km path between FN25ch and FN20xd along an azimuth of 165.84 degrees) for several hours and observed some wide fluctuations due to Doppler shift. See attached 09Dec2020-plot.png. The 03Dec2020-plot.png image serves as a baseline.

I'll be doing more data collection today.


73 de John, KD2BD

[Phil Erickson]

Hi John,

  Your email makes the excellent point that we do not need to get blasted by a huge CME to have ionospheric effects.  In particular, traveling ionospheric disturbances can be launched by many things, including reasonably modest high latitude inputs through Joule heating of the thermosphere and ionosphere.  Doppler effects would show this nicely as your work indicates.

73

Phil W1PJE

--
Please follow the HamSCI Community Participation Guidelines at http://hamsci.org/hamsci-community-participation-guidelines.
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "HamSCI" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to hamsci+un...@googlegroups.com.

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/hamsci/1084080252.5576683.1607624797437%40mail.yahoo.com.

[John Magliacane]

On Thursday, December 10, 2020, 02:13:29 PM EST, Phil Erickson <phil.e...@gmail.com> wrote:

> Hi John,
>
> Your email makes the excellent point that we do not need to get blasted by a huge CME to have ionospheric effects.
> In particular, traveling ionospheric disturbances can be launched by many things, including reasonably modest high
> latitude inputs through Joule heating of the thermosphere and ionosphere. Doppler effects would show this nicely as
> your work indicates.
>
> 73
> Phil W1PJE

Thank you, Phil.

And as further evidence of your claims, the 3 MHz CHU Doppler data collection I ran yesterday showed clear TID signatures beginning right around the time the Kp index rose from 1 to 2, and increased even further when it rose to 3.

See attached plot.


73 de John, KD2BD