Re: [PVRC] TOMORROW Tuesday June 15th at 7:00pm: W3LPL on What to Expect During the Rising Years of Solar Cycle 25

[Pete Smith N4ZR]

I hope Frank will also address the Termination Event hypothesis.  I have just finished reading (or trying to read) the McIntosh paper in Solar Physics.  I don't begin to understand the stats presented there, but as much as I'd like to see a high cycle - I was active for the last biggie in 1958 - I note that the paper was published in November, 2020, which means it must have been completed some months earlier.  One key sentence in the abstract - "Given this relationship and our prediction of a terminator event in 2020, we deduce that sunspot Solar Cycle 25 could have a magnitude that rivals the top few since records began."  But I haven't seen anything reporting that a terminator event occurred, either in the last part of 2020, or so far in 2021.  If it hasn't happened yet, does that take the wind out of these sails?

73, Pete N4ZR

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On 6/14/2021 1:40 PM, James Nitzberg via PVRC wrote:

Dear ALL PVRC Members, guests, and parties interested in Solar Cycle 25,

I am pleased to report that Frank Donovan, W3LPL has agreed to present information regarding Solar Cycle 25 during the next Scheduled Northwest meeting, at 7:00pm Tuesday June 15th.  Frank had an award-winning article regarding this topic in May’s QST Magazine.

This meeting is open to all PVRC members from every region; and it is also open to other contesting clubs and individuals that are interested in learning what to expect during the RISING YEARS of this current solar cycle.

Tom Valenti, K3AJ has graciously agreed to lead the meeting in my absence. 

Please mark your calendar and plan to attend this exciting meeting! 

Here are the GoToMeeting Credentials for this meeting:

What to Expect During the Rising Years of Solar Cycle 25

Tue, Jun 15, 2021 7:00 PM - 8:00 PM (EDT)

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73,

Jim Nitzberg   WX3B

Chairman, PVRC Northwest Chapter

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[James Secan]

I was wondering about that as well, and taking an engineering eye-ball approach it looks to me like the last two Termination Events occurred roughly two years after the smoothed SSN minimum. Plugging the numbers in gives a delta-T of 10.0 years for Cycle 24 and an SSNmax for Cycle 25 of around 210. Still higher than the “sense of the community” forecast.

I did some googling to see if I could find an update to their predicted value of delta-T, but couldn’t find anything. Anyone find an update of any kind?

Jim
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[Frank M. Howell]



Pete and others,

You can get a deep insight into the McIntosh team’s new theoretical approach and the basis for their prediction in my interview with Scott a few months ago:

https://www.icqpodcast.com/download-the-show/2020/8/30/icq-podcast-episode-332-exciting-bumper-new-solar-cycle

You can see the gist of the difference at this website:

https://helioforecast.space/solarcycle

Frank

K4FMH

[MNaruta GMail]

Thank you Jim.

I hope that it will be available on YouTube afterwards, as I
must attend a county ARPSC board meeting at the same time.


Michael Naruta - AA8K

[Dustin Reyes]

Concur, I won't be able to make it but very interested in the content; either way thanks for the heads up!

-Dustin Reyes - KD2LOF

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