Tsunami 2004 Seychelles

[Magdalen Dano]

PORT VICTORIA, Seychelles, 7 September 2016 - Tourism in coastal areas is at high risk from tsunamis in the Indian Ocean as was demonstrated by the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami which claimed the lives of up to 9,000 tourists from an overall death toll of 230,000.

Tourism interests are participating today for the first time in IOwave16, the Indian Ocean tsunami simulation exercise involving 24 countries initiated in 2009 by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO. The exercise is also part of the build up to the first UN World Tsunami Awareness Day on November 5.

DRDM is trying to convince thousands of hotels and guesthouses that being prepared against disasters is a big competitive and business advantage for them, as exposure to disaster risk is growing due to climate change and more severe and unpredictable weather events. Small Island Developing States often lose a high proportion of their assets in severe weather events.

Floods and drought are among the major risks for the Seychelles but cyclones and tsunami risk are becoming higher. The last cyclone Fantala to hit Seychelles in April 2016 caused infrastructure damage and destroyed many guesthouses. Disaster experts calculate that a tsunami can reach the coasts of Seychelles in less than seven hours if Indonesia were to be hit by an earthquake.

In the tsunami simulation today the artificial island of Eden including the newly built marina close to the main island of Mahe will also participate and most of its service providers such as hotels, transport services, schools and hospitals will activate their contingency plans and evacuate their staff to safer zones.

Then the disaster management team under the command of the Minister of Environment will have 5 hours to verify that all actors of the emergency team are in place and prepared to respond and evacuate as many people as possible. Each system provider has a precise role to play and every action is timed to respond to the two metres waves that are expected to reach the archipelago.

On Sunday December 26, 2004, the islands of Seychelles experienced tidal waves of up to four metres high following a massive earthquake measuring 8.9 on the Richter scale which struck off the coast of Sumatra in Indonesia.

First the tidal waves hit La Digue, moved rapidly to Praslin and soon after Mah. Praslin resident Rebecca Bouchereau, aged 78, recalls that she was returning from her regular Sunday prayers along with her husband Dekse and grandchild Maggie.

Mrs Bouchereau noted that the day of the catastrophic event the majority of people were still in high spirits and still in the festive mood. She recalls that the tragic event put an end to the celebratory mood as the powerful waves had taken with it their possessions, pets, including pots and pans in which they had cooked up their festive feasts, just the day before.

Many farms in the south were completely devastated and properties at Anse la Mouche were also hit. The tsunami shook the country and many of us got to know more about this phenomenon. Since this event, the Department of Risk and Disaster Management (DRDM) has invested in building capacity of locals in order to better manage, respond and react to such eventuality.

The multinational IOWave16 tsunami drill in the Indian Ocean has taught Seychelles key lessons about how to save lives in the event that a potentially deadly wave strikes in the future, according to senior officials in the island nation.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of the December 2004 tsunami in the Republic of Seychelles,Western Indian Ocean are described, with particular reference to the detailed water level record from the Pointe La Rue tide-gauge, Mah, and tsunami run-up characteristics on Mah and Praslin. Assessments of tsunami impacts on coastal and shallow marine environments in the granitic islands of the Northern Seychelles, and on the coral islands of selected locations in the Southern Seychelles, are reported. The lack of noticeable impacts within the southern islands compared to those further north appears to be related to both reduced tsunami wave heights to the south and to differences in regional bathymetry, the tsunami being accentuated by the shelf seas of the Seychelles Bank in the north and not amplified around the southern islands surrounded by deep water.

The Khaled bin Sultan Living Oceans Foundation is dedicated to the conservation and restoration of living oceans and pledges to champion their preservation through research, education and a commitment to Science Without Borders.

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Preliminary Assessment of the Macroeconomic Impact of The Tsunami Disaster on Affected Countries, and of Associated Financing Needs
Prepared by the IMF in Cooperation with the World Bank
February 4, 2005

The magnitude 9.0 earthquake and associated tidal waves that hit Indian Ocean countries on December 26, 2004 entail a natural disaster of tragic proportions. The estimated number of dead and missing is nearing 300,000, and roughly 1 million people have been displaced. The human cost of this disaster is clearly beyond measurement.

Now affected countries must deal with the aftermath of the disaster, and engage in reconstruction efforts. This note presents IMF and World Bank staffs' preliminary assessment of the likely macroeconomic impact of the disaster, and of financing needs of affected countries.1 It focuses in particular on Indonesia, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, where the damage has been greatest. It provides preliminary information on India, which was hard-hit but where the needs assessment is still under way, with World Bank support. It also gives a brief assessment of the situation in Thailand, Seychelles, and Somalia. (Bangladesh, Malaysia, and Myanmar are not discussed in this note, because the damage was limited, and, in Myanmar's case, also because information is poor.)

The IMF and the World Bank have been actively engaged in assisting the authorities cope with the aftermath of the disaster. The World Bank has taken a lead role, along with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and other international institutions, in assisting the authorities conduct damage and needs assessments. IMF staff have focused on assessing the implications of the disaster for macroeconomic policy, including the impact on growth, as well as the fiscal and external positions. Both institutions have also moved ahead quickly to initiate the provision of emergency financial assistance and longer-term financial aid. The IMF's Executive Board recently decided to set up an administered account to subsidize emergency assistance for natural disasters provided by the IMF to PRGF-eligible member countries. Total funds needed to make this initiative effective are an estimated $70-100 million; pledges of contributions from IMF members are now urgently needed.

According to the United Nations (UN), the official death toll from the tsunami, including those missing and presumed dead, is estimated at 225,000. More than 425,000 people have been rendered homeless, and thousands of children orphaned. The Indonesian government has set up a Joint Disaster Management Center with the UN at the office of the Vice-President to manage and coordinate international relief efforts for the tsunami-affected areas in Aceh and North Sumatra.

Preliminary estimates put the total cost of reconstruction at $4-5 billion for the coming five years. The Ministry of Planning, with the assistance of the World Bank, the ADB, and the IMF, completed a preliminary assessment of the damage and the associated reconstruction costs, ahead of the Consultative Group on Indonesia (CGI) meeting held in Jakarta during January 19-20. A detailed sector-by-sector study was conducted to assess the destruction of physical assets such as housing, roads, and infrastructure, and estimate the associated replacement costs. The initial estimates are subject to revision and may be different from the actual cost of the new infrastructure that would be built.

At the CGI meeting, donors pledged nearly $4 billion to finance reconstruction spending in 2005-2009. Of the total, $1.7 billion was pledged for 2005, of which $1 billion would be on-budget (30 percent in grants and 70 percent in concessional loans) and the remaining $0.7 billion disbursed directly to, or through, NGOs. However, there is some uncertainty regarding both the timing of actual disbursements, and whether any debt relief provided within the framework of the Paris Club (see below) would be offset against pledges made at the CGI meeting. Substantial financial assistance is also being provided by private donors. To ensure transparency and efficiency in the management of all donor funds, the government has decided to set up a multi-donor trust fund.

Notwithstanding the destruction to Aceh's wealth and capital stock, the impact of the disaster on overall growth in Indonesia is expected to be limited, with negative supply-side effects largely offset by increased reconstruction spending. Aceh accounts for only about 2 percent of national GDP, with the oil and gas sector, which was not damaged, accounting for almost half of regional GDP. At the national level, the net impact, including the effect of reconstruction spending, is projected to marginally lower GDP growth by between zero to percentage point. Inflation is expected to remain around 6 percent.

The substantial donor resources pledged for reconstruction would go a long way to cover Indonesia's financing need, and contain the effects of the disaster on the budget and the balance of payments to manageable proportions. For 2005, financial assistance should enable the government to limit the budget deficit to about 1 percent of GDP (after grants), only slightly higher than the previously planned target of 1 percent of GDP. (There is a small financing gap of about 0.1 percent of GDP that remains to be addressed.) As for the balance of payments, preliminary projections suggest that additional import needs would be covered by foreign assistance, and with Aceh's key oil and gas exports unaffected, the overall impact is likely to be broadly neutral.2

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