[GSIFS] Happy Diwali & Prosperous New Year to you and your family
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GSIFS
Nov 9, 2007, 3:42:04 AM11/9/07
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Unfortunately I've been busy with other things and with growing the GSIFS foundation. However I know you may be wanting a GSIFS view on the year ahead.
As per my expectation, the US Sub prime matter is not over. Big investment houses reported losses upto $4B last quarter. Thats the time when all brokers and investment cos started talking of India of decoupling from the developed market. However my opinion is still the same it was then. The matter is not over. And now recently those investment banks like Merril Lynch, Goldmans Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi Group, etc... have reported over $11B losses.
The other thing happening since then is that the world is refusing Chinese goods, which should be good for the Indian manufacturers. Unfortunately the rising rupee has affected them. India is now in a vicious cycle of growth with problems which could hamper the growth.
If the rupee keeps rising, major Indian cos will merely look like babies again.
Crude has hit a century. Usually we like things hitting century, be it cricketers or age of business, or age of a person. But this is one thing we should not be happy about. If Crude rises like hell, and rupee appreciates in the same proportion then India can overcome its energy supply crunch. But the economy will be so shattered that there wont be too many people demanding this energy source any more.
My previous list has done quite good. I will still stick to those stocks. As i'm a fundamentals guy, ive only talked of stocks which are fundamentally very strong. You have already seen what SESA GOA has done till now. I talked of it at Rs. 1100. Now it has peaked at Rs. 4000. Those who didnt submit to the open offer have been rewarded. My role was only to guide you. Hope you have liked my guidance and also of my team.
In my absence the GSIFS team is still generating some stock discussions.
I expect the FED to cut rates again to stabilize the investment economy in US. However this depends on various figures like employment data, Nos of the loss making cos, and the extent of loss, GDP, Inflation, etc...
Then I also expect the RBI to hike CRR, Repo, and Reverse Repo rates. The RBI has no option other than to suck out the excess liquidity.
Exporting cos will have to manage the rupee rise, as India grows so will its currency. Till now only $ to Re. has been affected. If India grows continuously at 8-10% then currencies like pound, euro, and other major currencies will also depreciate against the Rupee in the future.
Hope my guidance has been appreciated till now. And I expect you to continue with GSIFS till next Diwali but only with more cash and wealth. I also hope the GSIFS guidance and discussions have had a positive impact on your portfolio and your mental state.
Lastly I would like to apologize and Thank you for your time that you have taken to read my Diwali View.
Keep Investing Safely,
Mubin Panjwani,
GSIFS
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Posted By GSIFS to GSIFS at 11/09/2007 01:49:00 PM
As per my expectation, the US Sub prime matter is not over. Big investment houses reported losses upto $4B last quarter. Thats the time when all brokers and investment cos started talking of India of decoupling from the developed market. However my opinion is still the same it was then. The matter is not over. And now recently those investment banks like Merril Lynch, Goldmans Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Citi Group, etc... have reported over $11B losses.
The other thing happening since then is that the world is refusing Chinese goods, which should be good for the Indian manufacturers. Unfortunately the rising rupee has affected them. India is now in a vicious cycle of growth with problems which could hamper the growth.
If the rupee keeps rising, major Indian cos will merely look like babies again.
Crude has hit a century. Usually we like things hitting century, be it cricketers or age of business, or age of a person. But this is one thing we should not be happy about. If Crude rises like hell, and rupee appreciates in the same proportion then India can overcome its energy supply crunch. But the economy will be so shattered that there wont be too many people demanding this energy source any more.
My previous list has done quite good. I will still stick to those stocks. As i'm a fundamentals guy, ive only talked of stocks which are fundamentally very strong. You have already seen what SESA GOA has done till now. I talked of it at Rs. 1100. Now it has peaked at Rs. 4000. Those who didnt submit to the open offer have been rewarded. My role was only to guide you. Hope you have liked my guidance and also of my team.
In my absence the GSIFS team is still generating some stock discussions.
I expect the FED to cut rates again to stabilize the investment economy in US. However this depends on various figures like employment data, Nos of the loss making cos, and the extent of loss, GDP, Inflation, etc...
Then I also expect the RBI to hike CRR, Repo, and Reverse Repo rates. The RBI has no option other than to suck out the excess liquidity.
Exporting cos will have to manage the rupee rise, as India grows so will its currency. Till now only $ to Re. has been affected. If India grows continuously at 8-10% then currencies like pound, euro, and other major currencies will also depreciate against the Rupee in the future.
Hope my guidance has been appreciated till now. And I expect you to continue with GSIFS till next Diwali but only with more cash and wealth. I also hope the GSIFS guidance and discussions have had a positive impact on your portfolio and your mental state.
Lastly I would like to apologize and Thank you for your time that you have taken to read my Diwali View.
Keep Investing Safely,
Mubin Panjwani,
GSIFS
--
Posted By GSIFS to GSIFS at 11/09/2007 01:49:00 PM
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