VIETNAM RECENT POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

[EGreenwall]

Folks:

Herman Pirchner is a former boss from my time in the US Senate and a friend of almost 50 years.

He founded and heads the American Foreign Policy Council, a think tank with specific expertise in China, Southeast Asia and Russia.  Recently, he and his crew traveled to Vietnam and met with a plethora of highly placed political and commercial contacts.  The group was impoverished by not meeting with Kien. 😊

Notwithstanding, attached is AFPC’s analysis.  It benefits from the advantage of being original, fact based, and short.

Looking forward to seeing all of you shortly.

xoxo

Ephraim

[Anna Spevak]

Thanks for sharing.

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[Dan Scherlis]

Here's the source of that report:

AFPC October 2025 Vietnam Trip Report | American Foreign Policy Council

The PDF there is searchable, unlike the OP's attachment.  

(Yes, it's the same report as the "2026" report that was attached.)

Also from AFPC is this more-recent (post-trip) opinion: 
How America Can Help Vietnam-and Itself | American Foreign Policy Council

AFPC is very conservative, but they're old-school conservative: wary of Russia (as well as China), and supportive of Ukraine and of democracy. 

(Re democracy: The trip report's assertion that Hanoi doesn't understand the realities of American balance of power with an independent Congress, and of the mediating effects of power-sharing between the parties and of experienced Presidential advisors is, in a word, adorable.)

Their Vietnam discussion is all about China, with passing mentions of Russia.  (Hanoi has a history of acquiring arms from Russia. Obama worked to wind that down.)

Yours in geopolitical awakening,

- Dan

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[Mary Ann Eddy]

“Adorable”!🥰 

MAE

Mary Ann Eddy
96 Hampton St
Sag Harbor, NY 11963
917 921 2471

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[Walt Spevak]

Thanks Dan.  And Ephraim.

The post-trip piece is a handy summary of the longer trip report.

Vietnam's confusion and concern about the transactional Trump administration is understandable. Let's not forget, before the 46% tariff on Vietnam, which became 20%, there was the 90% figure first trumped up (scroll down in the article to see the infamous chart) in early April that supposedly was the tariff Vietnam was imposing on the US.

Kien...can you arrange a helicopter fly-over of the future Trump golf course and resort?

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Walt Spevak
415-298-1173 (cell)

[EGreenwall]

I reached out to Pumpkin 🎃 this morning.  To welcome Dan and make him feel better about himself, about the Vietnam immigration system, and the self-perceived gap in academic credentials, 🎃 is arranging for his close friend Kim Jong Un to brief us all on hotel and resort development opportunities around Hue.

[Kien Pham]

Our dear Ephraim:

You finally add value after our 40 years of collective waiting. :-)

A serious Thank You for sharing the AFPC report with us.  I have listened to the report and encourage all travlers to read it so your observations and inquiries during the tour around the country can meet Stanford GSB quality norm.

I think the information in the report is largely true and correct.  Vietnam is a country on the move, with national unity, purpose and ambition.  Looking around the world today, how many countries can fit into that category?

For your personal pondering while en route to Vietnam in 4 weeks, I offer some unusual brain teasers:

One, on geopolitics, would the US come to the rescue if China hits Vietnam?  Do you think the Vietnamese know your quiet American answer?  What lesson do you think the Vietnamese extract from our involvement in Afghanistan and Pakistan and Cambodia?  Do you think America is, or should be considered a reliable partner, by Asian countries including Vietnam?

Two, on America itself, do you think Americans understand and appreciate what has been going on in Washington?  SHould we expect the Vietnamese or any foreigner to understand the broken American political and civic system?  Maybe you can help explain it to Vietnamese whom you meet next month.

Three, on the bilateral US-VN relationship, 1995 was 50 years after WWII.  Many of us had been to germany and Japan by 1995.  How was the bilateral relationship between the US and those countries at that time?  Compare that to what the US-Vn relationship today and should we be that happy or elated?  Is it smart for Washington to ignorantly dampen the US-VN connection in the name of fairness or whatever terms we use?

A lot of people count the trees and forget to look at the forest.   I learned a new thing yesterday, my first in 2026:  Hope will always come but sometimes delayed. :-)

I wish you and me 2026 filled with very good health and happiness.  Very eager to see you here in Vietnam.

Your friend, kp

Kien Pham

Imperfect Servant of the People

VN Mobile and WhatsApp: +84-98-5656-566

"You make a living by what you get and a life by what you give"

Sorry if you see typos.  This email comes from a blind man on mobile device!