Fwd: MEF Dispatch: Turkey’s BRICS Bid and Erdoğan's Declining Health
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From: Middle East Forum <in...@meforum.org>
Date: 12 September 2024 00:57:18 GMT+3
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Subject: MEF Dispatch: Turkey’s BRICS Bid and Erdoğan's Declining Health
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The Ottoman Echo: Turkey's Power Play Shakes the West
By Ahnaf Kalam ● Sep 11, 2024
Smart Brevity® count: 4.5 mins...1254 words
Welcome to the latest edition of MEF Dispatch, your trusted source for incisive analysis on Middle Eastern affairs and their global implications.
In this edition, we explore Turkey's strategic shift towards BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Erdoğan's health concerns and their political impacts, and the escalating tensions over French schools in Turkey. Additionally, we dive into Craig Considine's insights on Islamist influence and social justice, and highlight recent events in Birmingham that underscore the growing challenges to local authority.
As we mark the 23rd anniversary of the September 11 attacks, we reflect on how this tragic event continues to shape our understanding of the Middle East and global politics. In light of this somber occasion, we are pleased to include an article from our archives by Martin Kramer, "Twin Towers and Ivory Towers, 20 Years Later," which offers valuable insights on the evolution of Middle Eastern studies in America since 9/11.
Turkey’s BRICS Bid Is the Diplomatic Equivalent of Its S-400 Purchase
By: Michael RubinTurkey formally applied to join the BRICS group of emerging economies on September 2, 2024.
Why it matters: Turkey's move signals a closer alignment with Russia and China, potentially undermining NATO's unity and the U.S. dollar's dominance in international trade.
The big picture: President Erdoğan's pivot to BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reflects Turkey's strategic shift away from Western alliances.
This echoes Turkey’s controversial purchase of the S-400 missile system from Russia, which strained relations with NATO.
What they’re saying: Experts warn that Turkey’s alignment with BRICS could have significant geopolitical repercussions.
"Turkey's move to join BRICS is a clear signal of its intent to distance itself from the West," said a senior NATO official.
"This could lead to a realignment of Turkey's foreign policy priorities," noted a foreign policy analyst.
By the numbers: Turkey’s economic challenges are a driving force behind this strategic pivot.
Turkey's economy currently ranks 18th globally.
The country’s inflation rate has reached double digits, impacting the purchasing power of its citizens.
Yes, but: There are significant challenges and potential pushbacks to Turkey’s BRICS bid.
Turkey’s NATO membership complicates its relationship with BRICS countries, which often have conflicting interests.
Internal opposition within Turkey may arise, as not all political factions support closer ties with Russia and China.
What’s next: The U.S. and Europe may need to impose diplomatic and economic sanctions to counter Turkey's drift towards adversarial alliances.
Similar to restrictions placed on Iranian and Russian diplomats, limiting Turkish diplomats' movements could be a measured response.
Is Erdoğan the Sick Man of Europe?
By: Michael RubinTurkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's health issues are becoming increasingly apparent, raising concerns about his leadership.
Why it matters: Erdoğan's declining health could have significant implications for Turkey's political stability and its role in international alliances.
The big picture: Historically, Turkey has struggled with internal and external challenges, often drawing parallels to the Ottoman Empire's decline.
Erdoğan's health issues and autocratic tendencies may exacerbate these challenges, leading to potential instability.
What’s next: Turkey's future may hinge on how it navigates these challenges, including potential leadership changes and shifting alliances.
International and domestic responses to Erdoğan's condition will be critical in shaping Turkey's trajectory.
Erdoğan’s Crackdown on French Schools in Turkey Portends Broader Conflict
By: Abdullah BozkurtPresident Erdoğan's government targets two French schools in Turkey, escalating tensions between the nations.
Why it matters: The campaign against Lycée Français Charles de Gaulle and Lycée Français Pierre Loti aims to energize Erdoğan's conservative base and pressure France on political disputes.
The big picture: This move is part of a broader strategy to expand Turkey's influence and challenge Western powers.
The dispute centers on the schools' legal status and their enrollment of Turkish students, which has historical precedence but faces new scrutiny.
What’s next: The standoff could lead to broader conflicts as Erdoğan seeks to establish Turkish schools in France and influence their curricula.
The outcome of this dispute may set a precedent for future actions against other foreign institutions in Turkey.
Craig Considine on Social Justice and the Muslim Brotherhood – Illusion and Reality
By: Marilyn SternIn an August 12 Middle East Forum Podcast, Craig Considine discusses his experiences with Islamist organizations and their political agendas.
Why it matters: Considine's insights reveal how Islamist groups use social justice rhetoric to advance their political goals.
The big picture: Initially drawn to organizations like CAIR for their civil rights advocacy, Considine later realized their strategic manipulation of left-leaning ideals.
His involvement in the UAE's peace initiatives and the Abraham Accords exposed deeper antisemitic ideologies within these groups.
What they’re saying: Considine emphasizes the importance of critical thinking and skepticism towards groups with political objectives.
He advises students to read across the political spectrum and be wary of identity politics.
By the numbers: Islamist influence extends deeply into academia and politics, particularly within the Democratic Party.
MB affiliates like CAIR and ISNA wield significant influence through educational and political channels.
Yes, but: While challenging these narratives, Considine faces backlash and accusations of racism.
He stresses that the Islamist agenda fundamentally opposes American values entrenched since the 18th century.
What’s next: Considine calls for stronger leadership in educational institutions to promote critical thinking and counteract Islamist propaganda.
Addressing foreign funding in U.S. universities is crucial to mitigating anti-American sentiment.
Additional Reading: Muslim-Controlled British Cities Are Bases for Further Conquest
By: Raymond IbrahimWhy it matters: Recent events in Birmingham highlight challenges to local authority and societal norms.
The big picture: Historical ribats were strongholds for jihad; today, similar enclaves form in Western cities.
What’s next: Addressing these issues requires stronger law enforcement and a reevaluation of immigration policies.
WATCH: “Ben-Gurion: Titan of Israel” with Michael Mandelbaum
David Ben-Gurion was the single most important figure in the founding of modern Israel and also during the first two decades of independence. He built the Israel Defense Forces, shaped the country’s alliances, and solidified its democratic system of governance. For these reasons, Michael Mandelbaum included him in a book on eight political titans of the twentieth century (along with Woodrow Wilson, Lenin, Hitler, Churchill, FDR, Gandhi, and Mao). Who was David Ben-Gurion? How is the impact of his contribution felt even today? Has the country deviated from his vision?
View the podcast here.
Twin Towers and Ivory Towers, 23 Years Later
By Martin KramerFollowing 9/11, Americans demanded to know “why they hate us.” Academic experts were swamped with invites from media and senior officials. Their answer? America is to blame.
Why it matters: Middle Eastern studies in America missed critical developments, including the rise of radical Islamist extremism, which left the U.S. vulnerable.
The big picture: The market share of academic experts in interpreting the Middle East has shrunk since 9/11, with journalists and think tanks now leading the narrative.
Many journalists and non-academic experts gained prominence by providing deeper insights that academic narratives missed.
What’s next: Creating alternatives to traditional academic Middle Eastern studies is essential.
Initiatives like the Association for the Study of the Middle East and Africa (ASMEA) and the Middle East Forum’s Campus Watch aim to provide balanced perspectives.
From the MEF Archives: This article by Martin Kramer reflects on the academic landscape post-9/11, emphasizing the need for diverse perspectives.
As we wrap up this edition of MEF Dispatch, we hope the insights provided have deepened your understanding of the complex and evolving geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. From Turkey's strategic realignments and Erdoğan's health implications to the influence of Islamist organizations and the challenges faced by Western cities, these issues are interconnected and require our continued attention and engagement.
Sincerely,
Ahnaf Kalam
Digital Media Specialist
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