Creeper World 3: Arc Eternal V2.12 Hack Offline
Mariu Carlton
Developments around relationships and dating have a relatively small speed premium, so I figured I would wait until I had a full post worth of them. Indeed I now present such a post, in which I present several theories as to why so many of you might still be single.
I would say that the biggest reason people are single is that they don't really want relationships. They want relationships in the same way they want to be billionaires or top performers, in a vague it-would-be-nice-but-sadly-it-is-impossible kind of way. But then it turns out that a committed or even a casual relationship doesn't really fit into their lives, their routines, their habits, their beliefs about the world and their expectations for the future as they are set up. They live their lives as pronouncements into the void. This is a valid life choice, but often people make it without fully knowing they are making it.
Fortunately, making space for relationships in your life is much easier than becoming a billionaire or a top performer. But since it is not happening by itself, a change somewhere must occur. And the only way to make change happen and not be at the mercy of being changed by chance is to revise fundamental assumptions, which is easy to say and hard to do unless you are a reader. Reading deeply teaches you to overhear yourself talking to yourself and recognize the contingent nature and structure of such speech, and then of your existence.
How would another person fit into your daily life, preferably for the better? Do you want them to fit? And how would you fit into their life, preferably for the better? How can you be good for them and they to you? Galaxy brain next-levelling dating tactics don't stem from this questions. Considerations about Ethics and performing plain level 1 generically solid actions such as acquiring new skills or healthy habits do. When you treat yourself and other people ethically, they tend to treat you better as well, and better relationships become possible. That is what good relationships are.
Alternative methods for change may be stuff like a near death experiences, taking hallucinogenic drugs or a religious conversion, but I take them to be specific cases of learning that you can read the same text (yourself, your life, whatever) in different ways to come up with different information. I recommend books because they are safer to experience, more consistent and explicit about the process, and generally less intense to talk about in dates.
I think this is a good point, especially as people often accidentally pursue strats that are directed to "get a relationship" and not "get a good relationship". Maybe someone simply needs the reps on just getting a relationship/date/coffee, but always should keep at least part of an eye on "not accidentally getting good at only finding terrible relationships".
I can assure you that huge swathes of single men desperately want a relationship but don't even bother because they feel their chances are far too low to be worth trying - many of them are right (to the extent they're unwilling to settle for some seriously unattractive girls - as in lower percentiles than themselves)
And I mean, the thing is, even what you're describing was less of a problem in the past. So something has to have changed to bring about this situation, and that's where the insight lies (it wasn't men just spontaneously deciding to become undatable nerds overnight).
Social media has drastically lowered the price of being a poser. You could be a poser before the internet, but you had to at least have a convincing costume. You had to try to look the part and know something about whatever you were pretending to be, and eventually go find some people to do that thing with. In doing all that work, you eventually hit a point where you had to decide whether to commit to the role or give it up before getting exposed as a poser. Social media has done away with much of that.
Today, you can go online and play the role of angry incel or unapologetic player or angry feminist drinking male tears and you'll find scores, if not legions, of people to cheer you on and support your posing.
Many of my friends and acquaintances have been in promising relationships, and then ended them (either explicitly or explicitly) by making professional or education choices that required them to live in a different city than their partner. Examples: applying to/attending the top grad school they can get into in their field, academic jobs, choosing top programs for medical residencies.
Anecdotally, many of these people seem to feel they are "on rails" - obviously, they need to go to top program X in distant city, rather than settling for regional program Y in their current location. This is revealed preference for career over relationship-building. If the default is to favor your career at critical junctures, you may end up "resetting the clock" on relationship building quite frequently, and hitting your goals later than intended (or never).
1) Google and Amazon have tons of data on me, every incentive to want to recommend stuff I would buy, and I find that their book, movie, and music recommendations are less than 50% hits, usually much less. So I assume that predicting my tastes is a hard problem.
2) If Keeper has an effective AI solution, shouldn't that be very low marginal cost? The pricing structure would make sense for a very skilled and effective human matchmaker, but seems weird for an allegedly AI solution.
I presume they are using AI to find candidate matches, then having humans evaluate the matches manually, and also collecting data and feedback on each individual. There's likely serious fixed costs here, and you only pay on success. The 1/4 rate of date -> relationship rate doesn't seem so hard? Also the $ helps filter for seriousness.
Predicting your tastes is a hard problem, which in G/A's cases are made harder because you are not actively assisting with that so much - they are trying to use revealed preferences. Netflix recommendations and predictions used to be VERY VERY good for those of us who actively gave thoughtful ratings to everything on the 1-5 scale, and would have been better still if we could reveal component preferences (such as actors, or motifs, or genres or what not) and I still want someone to build a better recommendation engine company, would invest/advise.
That said, I would be concerned enough about the scam issue that I would 100% choose pay-as-you-go at double the price to guard against this, my main concern would be 'I deposit money and then never get it back.' If I mostly get a human matchmaker instead of an AI, who cares so long as it works?
For the marriage bounties, you do have the option to escrow it up front for a discount but that is optional and most choose the "pay after I get married" option. If you do escrow them the funds are contractually held in a separate FDIC insured account which we are not allowed to touch.
Yes, this is exactly right. In this case stated preferences are significantly more valuable than trying to interpret revealed preferences and our whole process is setup to acquire 100% of everyone's stated preferences (and some revealed ones too).
As you guessed, we use AI (NLP + CV) to populate the initial top matches and humans to review them. Our company is only a little over a year old and we've got a long way to go to get to full-self-driving but that is the vision we are moving towards as fast as we can.
To be fair, the Google song recommendations have turned me on to several artists that I have never heard before and like a lot, but if the matchmaking success is about that good, I can't see paying large amounts for it.
(1) Unless I'm really unaware of the current status of AI, I would be surprised if AI is a great component of any value they add. And without criticizing Keeper specifically, I'm guessing "AI" is going to be the new "blockchain" - something you say to signify that your project is cutting edge, but maybe doesn't add a ton to its actual value. (Eric Falkenberg used to call this "Batesian mimicry" in finance.)
(3) The best case scenario I find likely (from admittedly, my position of more or less ignorance) is that the price provides some kind of beneficial screening effect, and allows them to provide some effective human matchmaking to back up any AI contributions.
The important thing to the user is that we lead with quality rather than quantity, which is why we're taking the approach we are. The long term vision is to lower the price as our AI can take over more and more of the human work.
Your taste in books, movies, and music is different than your taste in a life partner in that it varies depending on your mood and the stage of your life. Taste in life partners is actually (maybe surprisingly) quite static throughout most people's lives.
Our current hit rate is 1 in 3, that is true. I hope we can get it even higher over time but I expect it to have some variance as we grow. The important thing is that its two orders of magnitude better than Hinge/Tinder/Bumble and even OkCupid.
This, to me, is only wanting advice from people struggling in an open water swim. Certainly avoid advice from people that drowned (#2), but people that got across (and stayed across to stretch the metaphor) are plausibly the best source of advice. I went from incredibly terrible at dating to acceptable at it when I had a few older friends in stable LTRs beat into my head better strategies.
If you ignore the drowning people, you're at risk of making the same mistakes. And people in successful relationships are probably only useful if they're younger. If older married men were dating today with the same attitude and approach they had as a youth, many would struggle compared to how their actual dating life was.
Right, we need to hear only from attractive people who have no effort finding dates, that's how we understand what's happening with the perpetually and unwillingly single in this country. Understand the attitudes of these people specifically, even if you find their attitude repulsive, obviously has no place here.
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