'Trump Decision to Strike Iran Sets U.S. Up for Wider War and Undermines Nonproliferation Regime'

[Sukla Sen]

The post-WWII world, over the last few years, is descending into a disastrous chaos, as it seems. At quite a frightening pace.

On February 21 2022, the President of the Russian Federation -- one of the two largest nuclear and strongest military powers of the world, ending a fairly long phase of denials and deceptions, publicly announced his impending move to aggress and, effectively, gobble up much smaller and far weaker Ukraine in the name of undoing a historical wrong committed against Mother Russia. Three days later, the campaign was actually launched -- with the deceptive tag: Special Military Operation. This is the first time since September 1 1939, when Nazi Germany under Hitler had invaded Poland -- signalling the inauguration of WWII -- Europe saw an armed invasion of such a scale on its own territory.

On October 8 2023, in the perennially strife torn Middle Eas, the settler-colonial state of Israel -- with the explicit and implicit backing of the West -- by weaponising a heinous and adventurous attack by Hamas -- ruling over one of the two remaining remaining enclaves of the original inhabitants of the land, the Palestinians -- against its civilian population a day before -- a frankly genocidal campaign against Gaza to completely erase off its population, their history and memories. The campaign is still continuing.

On June 13, in a radical escalation of that cruel campaign, nuclear armed Israel launched an open (aerial) war against Iran -- its strongest rival, albeit non-nuclear, power in the region -- in the name of destroying its (civilian) nuclear programme, allegedly aimed at acquiring nuclear weapons. As Israel failed to overpower Iran, its most main backer the US have now bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities in the early hours of today, June 22 2025. This is yet another dangerous escalation.

It looks that Trump and Putin have entered into a virtual agreement over dividing (much of) the world into their exclusive zones of control. While Putin would be given a rather free hand in Ukraine and maybe the rest of Europe -- or at least its eastern part, Trump and Netanyahu can do whatever they like in the Middle East. Never mind some proforma noises by the two biggest and ugliest bullies to the contrary.

Of course, things are too fluid. The situation of the third largest bully, China, in this emerging scenario is a big unknown.

We, in the meanwhile, also had a short and yet nerve-wracking armed armed conflict in South Asia directly between two nuclear neighbours. Something unique in its own way.

In sum, whatever (admittedly flawed, unjust and creaking) global order could be put in place post-WWII in order to avert a repeat appears to be crumbling down.

Donald Trump's ascent as the POTUS is a very major triggering factor.

Produced below is a brief yet very informed statement from a long-standing fighter for global peace and nuclear disarmament on the implications of the latest turn of events.

Sukla

https://www.armscontrol.org/pressroom/2025-06/trump-decision-strike-iran-sets-us-wider-war-and-undermines-nonproliferation

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Trump Decision to Strike Iran Sets U.S. Up for Wider War and Undermines Nonproliferation Regime

PressRoom

In the Long Run, the Means to Nonproliferation Ends Matters

Statement by Daryl G. Kimball, Executive Director, Kelsey Davenport, Director for Nonproliferation Policy, and Thomas Countryman, Chair of the Board, and former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Nonproliferation and International Security, June 21, 2025

President Donald Trump’s decision to join Israel’s illegal attacks against the Iranian leadership, civilian targets, and the country's major nuclear sites represents an irresponsible departure from Trump’s pursuit of diplomacy and increases the risk of a nuclear-armed Iran.

The U.S. military strikes on Iranian nuclear targets, including the deeply fortified, underground Fordow uranium enrichment complex, may temporarily set back Iran's nuclear program, but in the long term, military action is likely to push Iran to determine nuclear weapons are necessary for deterrence and that Washington is not interested in diplomacy.

The consensus view among U.S. intelligence agencies before Israel's bombing campaign began on June 13 was that Iran had not made a decision to move forward on building a bomb, and was several months away, if not longer, from being able to assemble a crude device. There was no imminent threat that Iran was weaponizing its nuclear program before Israel's attack began.

Military strikes alone cannot destroy Iran's extensive nuclear knowledge. The strikes will set Iran’s program back, but at the cost of strengthening Tehran's resolve to reconstitute its sensitive nuclear activities, possibly prompting it to consider withdrawing from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, and possibly proceeding to weaponization.

Although Trump has already claimed victory, it is far too soon to say how much damage the combined Israeli and U.S. strikes have caused to Iran's nuclear program. It will take time, and likely the return of International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to Iran, to assess the status of Iran's nuclear activities and account for its nuclear material including the highly-enriched uranium it had already accumulated before the war.

Furthermore, Trump's decision to launch strikes against another sovereign country without authorization for the use of such force by Congress, which is mandated by the Constitution, is an egregious violation of the rule of domestic law.

Though the prospect for negotiations on a longer term framework to contain Iran’s sensitive nuclear activities have been damaged severely, this remains the best possible long-term path to prevent further nuclear weapons proliferation. Trump needs a plan for deescalation and engagement.

The failure to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis will further erode confidence in the global nonproliferation system and encourage more states to consider the pursuit of nuclear weapons to thwart attacks by other nuclear-armed states. 

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