2019 Parliamentary Poll
Outcome: Drivers: Consequences
An Exploration
Sukla Sen
Intro
The 7-phase 17th Lok Sabha poll had commenced on this April 11th and concluded
on May 19th, covering 542 of the total 543 constituencies. Polling in the
remaining constituency, in Tamil Nadu, stands deferred. The counting commenced
on May 23rd and concluded the next day.
The broad outlines of the outcomes were, however, available on the first day of
the counting itself.
The incumbent regime came back to power with a bang.
Never before, in the recent past, India was so keenly awaiting the results, because never before in the recent past India stood so sharply divided.
So much so that the Time magazine described Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi as India’s “divider in chief” on the cover of its May 20 issue1.
Modi’s picture was on all international issues of the magazine except the
United States edition.
The cover story2, written by novelist Aatish Taseer, has the
headline: “Can the world’s largest democracy endure another five years of a
Modi government?” A second one3, however, by Ian Bremmer, treats
Modi far more positively, suggesting that Modi is “India’s best hope” for
economic reform.
Even otherwise, much before that - on March 15, a parliamentarian from the
ruling BJP, since 1996 with some gaps in between, Sakshi Maharaj - also a
saffron-robed Hindu monk, had predicted that after 2019, there will be no
election in 2024.4
Even before that, on Jan. 25th, "(i)n his customary address to the nation on the eve of the 70th Republic Day, President Ram Nath Kovind Friday [had] said5 that the 17th Lok Sabha election is not ‘once-in-a-generation’ but ‘once-in-a-century’ moment".
All in all, the extraordinary salience of this poll, broadly mirroring that of the 1977, was widely acknowledged.6
The Poll Outcome
In a nutshell, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), in a “landslide” victory, won 303 seats (out of total 242 for which polls were held), up from previous 282, and the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won 353 seats. The Indian National Congress won 52 seats - up from 44, and the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance won 91. Other parties and their alliances won 98 seats.7
In as many as 16 states and UTs together, the BJP secured more than 50% of vote shares.8
Nationally, the BJP's vote share was 37.36% - up from 31.34%, while the Congress secured 19.49% - down from 19.52%.
In terms of vote share, the next three largest parties are: AITC (4.07%); BSP (3.63%) and SP (2.55%).
However, in terms of number of seats, DMK - a Congress ally, is the third largest party with 23 seats - all from Tamil Nadu.9
One of the other notable aspects is that the Congress failed even to open its account in Rajasthan - with total 25 seats, won a lone seat in Madhya Pradesh - out of total 29, and only 2 out of 11 seats in Chhattisgarh.10
Congress had won the state assembly polls in these three states, under
the same leadership, displacing the ruling BJP, led by Modi-Shah duo, just
about six months back.11
It, however, did fairly well in Punjab - winning 8 out of total 13, where it
had scored a convincing victory in the last assembly poll in early 2017. Its
vote share rose marginally, as compared to the assembly poll - from 38.5% to
40.12%.12
It did rather spectacularly - more so, keeping its overall dismal performance in mind, in Kerala, winning 15 out total 20 seats and its alliance partners another 4, conceding only 1 to the CPI(M) - the leader of the ruling coalition in the state.
In Tamil Nadu, it won 8 out of total 38, as the second largest partner in the DMK-led alliance.
The CPI(M) is down from 9, last time, to 3 - 2 in Tamil Nadu, as a constituent of the DMK-led alliance, and 1 in Kerala, as the leader of the ruling LDF.
It could not secure even the second position in any of the seats in its erstwhile bastions - Tripura (2) and West Bengal (42).
The AAP is down from 4 (all in Punjab) to 1 (in Punjab).
Last time, it had come second in all the 7 Delhi seats and 1 in UP (Varanasi).
This time, it conceded the second position to Congress, in 5 out of the 7 seats
in Delhi. Did not contest from Varanasi.
The AITC is down from 34 to 22 seats (all in West Bengal), with a small rise in vote share.
The BSP is up from 0 to 10 (all in UP, in alliance with the SP and RLD), with some fall in vote share.
The DMK is up from 0 to 23 (all in Tamil Nadu), with some rise in vote share.13, 14
The Landslide in Historical Perspective
The poll outcome, this time, has been dubbed by quite a few media
outlets, very much in tandem with their roles all along, as TsuNaMo (= Tsunami + Na(rendra) Mo(di))
or its various variants.15
The label may be pretty well justified in terms of its (devastating) impact on
the psyche of too many Indian citizens.16
And, it is also a fact, this is by far
the best performance by the BJP ever.
This time, it has won 303 seats and secured 37.36% vote share as against 282
and 31.34%, last time, the best till then. Its previous best performance had
been in 1998: 182 and 25.59%.17, 18
So much so that even "sober" analysts have now started terming it as
the confirmation of India's transit, commencing in 2014, from, the now extinct,
“Congress system" - a term coined by an eminent social scientist, late
Rajni Kothari19, to denote the dominance of India's multi-party democratic
polity by the Congress, to a new "BJP system".20
So, it won't be quite out of place to have a relook into what was the
"Congress system".
In 1952, the very first general election, the
Congress had won 74.2% of the total seats, as against 3.3% by the second
largest party and 45.9% vote share as against 10.6% of vote share. (The second
largest parties in terms of seats and vote share were different.)
In 1957, 75.1% of seats and 47.8% of votes, whereas the second largest, in
terms of seats - 5.5%, and the one in terms of votes - 10.6%.
In 1962, 73.1% and 44.7%. The second largest in terms of seats - 5.9% and the
one in terms of votes - 10.0%.17
In all these three polls the Congress mascot had been Independent India's first
Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru.
The "Congress system" did not only mean the dominance of the
parliament by the Congress but the states as well.
Nehru would pass away in 1964.
The "Congress system" suffered a very
major jolt in 1967, by losing a number of state assembly elections.
The INC suffered significant losses
in 7 states which included: Gujarat where INC won 11 out of 24 seats while
Swatantra Party won 12 seats. Madras where INC won 3 out of 39 seats and DMK
won 25 seats. Orissa where INC won 6 out of 20 seats and Swatantra Party won 8
seats. Rajasthan where INC won 10 out of 20 seats Swatantra Party won 8 seats.
West Bengal where INC won 14 out of 40. Kerala where INC won only 1 out of 19.
Delhi where INC won 1 out of 7 while remaining 6 were won by Bharatiya Jana
Sangh. The decline in support for Congress was also reflected by the fact it
lost control of six state governments in the same year.21
That, essentially, signalled the end of
the "Congress system".
Nevertheless, even in 1967 parliamentary poll, the
Congress had won 54.4% of seats and 40.8% of votes. The closest opponents: 5.9%
and 10.0%.
In 1971, in the parliamentary poll, the Congress faction led by Mrs Indira
Gandhi would, however, score a very convincing victory: 68.0% and 43.7%. The
nearest opponents: 4.8% and 10.4%.
The number of seats won by the Congress, as compared to its vote share, came
down because higher index of opposition unity.
Regardless, the era of unilateral dominance by the Congress party had ended in
1967 itself.
The Congress, under Indira Gandhi - post-Emergency, suffered an ignominious
defeat in 1977, with its vote share plunging to 34.7% and seat share to 28.4% -
this time as a result of across the board opposition unity coming on top of
widespread popular revulsion against the Emergency. The party that replaced the
Congress in the parliament was, for all practical purpose, a coalition of
parties, which could not hold together for far too long.
The era of coalition, effectively, got
inaugurated.
The Congress would, however, reach its peak
parliamentary poll performance in 1984: 78.6% of seats and 49.1% of votes. The
nearest opponents: 4.3% and 7.7%.
But, that would prove to be just a flash in the pan, which had been,
understandably, triggered by an extraordinary situation marked by bloody
Khalistani movement in Punjab, consequent Hindu exodus, capture of the famed
Golden Temple by the armed militants, followed by the "Operation Blue
Star" by the Indian Army causing a large number of deaths and severe
damage to the temple, the assassination of the Indian Prime Minister by two of
her Sikh bodyguards, sparking off massacre of Sikhs in Delhi and also
elsewhere.
The "national security" card was used by the Congress, now led by the
just deceased Prime Minister's only surviving son, to the hilt.
To that extent, the just concluded poll
bears an eerie resemblance with that one.
The fall of Congress, since ’84, has
been fairly steep.
The “Congress system”, as it appears, had been born with Jawaharlal Nehru as the
first Prime Minister of India and withered away with his death.
Regardless, this time, the BJP has won 51.93% of
seats and secured 37.36% of votes. The Congress, the nearest opponent, in terms
of both seats and vote share: 21.40% and 19.49%.13
Moreover, except for Kerala, the Congress had, till 1984, fought the general
elections, by and large, without any
ally. That’s far from the case with the BJP.
Even leaving aside the situations in the
states, the present situation can hardly be bracketed with the Congress
dominance till 1967, not even during the period from 1971-84, barring 1977-80.
There is, of course, a more salient dividing line separating the two – while
the “Congress system”, despite some serious aberrations, operated broadly to
strengthen the “Idea of India”, that underpinned the Indian Constitution, this
time, that very notion is faced with a mortal threat.
More later.
Two Advance Signals
Even before the actual counting of votes began, two advance signals, as regards
the likely outcome, became available. One, explicit, the other, implicit.
The obvious signal was, of course, the results of
the various exit polls, released after the conclusion of the final phase of
polling on May 19th.
The exit poll projections, however, widely diverged.
While the India Today-Axis predicted (around) 352 seats for the (BJP-led) NDA -
with a clear and emphatic majority by a margin of (around) 80, and (around) 92
seats for the (Congress-led) UPA, the NewsX-Neta, at the opposite end of the
spectrum, predicted 242 for the former and 164 for the latter, and, thereby a
hung parliament with the NDA enjoying a clear advantage.13
It is specifically in this context, the second
(implicit) signal became significant.
Reproduced below is an introductory comment22 to a mail posted by
this analyst on May 21.
Considering the provisional figure of
67.11% of polling this time, it's a rise of 0.71% points over the preceding
poll in 2014 (66.40%, as reported by the wiki).
2014 itself had seen a jump of a rather phenomenal 8.50% points: 66.40% -
57.90% (as reported by the wiki).
The outcome was that since 1984, for the first time, a single party did win absolute majority, even if it had fought the poll in alliance with a few others and its vote share of 31.34% was the lowest ever for a party winning absolute majority.
The fact that the voting %age has further gone up, even if only marginally, would tend to indicate a wave, given the phenomenal jump in the preceding poll.
The only plausible candidates
available to cause a wave are Pulwama/Balakot and anti-minority prejudices/anger.
The Nyaya (read: NYAY), in any case, meant for the bottom-most 20% of the
populace, most difficult to be accessed, is hardly a competitor.
The other likely candidate could be strong disaffection with the present
dispensation - the hoax of "Acche Din".
But, that'd have, normally, had brought the polling percentage down, not pushed
it up.
Btw, exit polls, almost
unfailingly, miss the magnitude of a large swing.
But, all these are, admittedly, speculations.
One'll have to wait for the 23rd, just two days away.
In the event, the NDA won 353 and the UPA - 91.13
That is pretty close to the projections made by one extreme of the spectrum of exit
polls - by India Today-Axis.
The Drivers
The last time, the BJP, as an opposition party, had polled 31.34%.
It may not be too irrational to assume that, by that time, it had accrued a
rather stable/core support base of at least around 20% - 2/3rd of its total
votes polled.
In 2009, it had polled 18.80%, in 2004 - 22.16%, in 1999 - 23.75%, 1998 -
25.59%, 1996 – 20.29 and 1991 – 20.04%.17, 23
Thus, around 20% may be taken to be rather steadfastly committed to the
ideology of “Hindutva” – an Indian shorthand for Hindu nationalism/supremacism.
The last time, Modi could gather around additional 10%
points over and above its (presumed) core support base.
The reasons were, as it appeared then, mainly the following:
I. Rampant corruptions indulged in by the outgoing UPA-II and, the preceding,
UPA-I. The public perception of the corruptions was triggered by the then CAG
reports and court cases and, further, sharply aggravated by the agitation led
by Anna Hazare – an ex-military man, paraded as a Gandhian, collaborating with
a Hindu Yoga guru-cum-entrepreneur having a large fan base, Baba Ramdev, and
aided by among others, his the then lieutenant Arvind Kejriwal.
II. The consequent “policy paralysis” on the part of the government, as
trumpeted, especially, by the corporate media.
III. Modi being able to raise and communicate these issues from his campaign
platform, with telling effect, and his promise to end corruption, bring back
black money – accompanied with the alluring assurance of depositing Rs 15 lakh
in every poor/salaried person’s bank account.24
IV. This was further accentuated by his call of “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas!”25
(With All, Development of All!). Also tersely captured in the slogan/promise of
“Acche Din!”26 (Better Days!).
This had gained considerable credibility based on the, skilfully constructed
and forcefully propagated, narrative of “Gujarat (the state of which Modi was
the Chief Minister by then for well over a decade) model of development”.27
IV. The last, but not the least, was resort to (accentuated) communal
polarisation, in a calibrated and targeted manner, aided by the Muzaffarnagar
riot in western UP.28
While the collapse29 of the "Acche Din"– the enchanting promise of better days,
should have had effected significant erosion in the floating votes gathered
last time, Pulwama-Balakot, or rather the (concocted?) narrative30 built around it, aided by a conniving EC and blared ad nauseam by the
obliging, and “patriotic”, media - the electronic even more so, made it a
surefire game changer.
The ruling party, in a way, got merged with the (brave) armed forces of
the country.
Modi claimed and got the full credit for the (presumed) resounding slap
delivered by the Indian forces in the face of Pakistan.
He would thus urge the (first-time) voters: “can your first vote be dedicated
to the veer jawans (valiant soldiers) who carried out the air strike in
Pakistan. Can your first vote be dedicated to the veer shaheed (brave martyrs)
of Pulwama (terror attack)?”31
"Ghar Me Ghus Ke Marunga"32 (I’d finish you off, by
invading your holes!) - the shrill cry emanating from the Indian Prime Minister,
was, arguably, the most emblematic campaign line of the Modi-BJP camp.
The main opposition in the field, the Congress, found itself utterly helpless.
It could neither challenge the narrative - that might have had proved even more
disastrous, nor posit an alternative narrative with matching appeal, more so,
given the biased nature of the media.
The "NYAY" - in any case, ostensibly directed at the bottom-most 20%,
presumably, the most difficult to be accessed, was just no match, even if one
sets aside the issue of credibility.
Despite the, apparently, spirited fight-back, the inevitable has
happened.
A wave of nationalist jingoism unfailingly helps a right-wing party,
particularly, if in power.
Thus Vajpayee had scored a clear victory in the 1999 poll, on the back of the
Kargil War – facilitated by a monumental failure of the military intelligence
on the Indian side, despite the far premature and ignominious collapse of the
coalition government led by him. He would, however, suffer a defeat, next time
(2004), unaided by any such surge, despite successfully running the coalition,
this time round.
Moreover, no factor is a stand-alone entity.
The surge of jingoism emerged out of the
latent, or even overt, feelings of animosity towards the (hated) “other” – the
Muslims, persistently cultivated33 by the regime.
The surge only helped to cross the tipping point, to propel the voter vote for
Modi/BJP, despite all his glaring fiascos – on the economic front, in
particular.
Reproduced below is a rather longish, nevertheless worth citing, extract from a
recent write-up34 carried by a South Asian journal:
Five years later, barring qualified
progress in some areas – toilets, roads, renewable energy, cooking gas – Modi’s
promise of vikas has turned out empty. Even governments we rate below-average
have arguably delivered similarly spotty progress, as in the preceding UPA
regime. Make in India, Skill India and Digital India mostly remain slogans.
Demonetisation showed the gaping idiocy and dangerous autocracy in Modi’s
decision-making, which callously overruled the advice from experts that only a
miniscule amount of black money was in cash. Far from raising India’s prestige
and soft power in the world, the press in Europe and North America mostly
brackets him and his movement with dubious figures like Trump, Putin, Ergodan
and Bolsonaro. Modi has said the climate is not changing, our tolerance for the
weather is. He holds asinine views about ancient Hindu feats in genetic science
and cosmetic surgery. Despite a historic windfall from low oil prices, he now
presides over a deepening farm crisis, an economic slowdown and the highest
unemployment in 45 years. Vikas?
In 2014, Modi ran on a platform of vikas but mostly delivered Hindutva. In 2019, he ran on a platform of Hindutva, with little talk of vikas, smart cities, beti bachao, black money, or Skill India. In 2019, Modi wore his religion on his sleeve. He and his party incited fear of the ‘other’ and made dog whistles and thinly veiled threats of violence and genocide. He gave Lok Sabha tickets to noted communal bigots of the RSS, including one who calls Godse a patriot. So what can we rationally expect from Modi this time? Even less vikas, I think, when the mandate is clearly for Hindutva, paving the way for the far right’s dream of a Hindu Rashtra, a state legally conceived not as secular but a Hindu polity and whose structures and institutions are based on the forms and priorities of Hindu culture and religion.
So how did Modi win this time?
A big part of the answer is the powerful opium of Hindu nationalism. The BJP
won because a great many Hindus are high on Hindutva. The Sangh Parivar has
learned to exploit the well-known cultural inferiority complex of the Hindu
middle class, which grew out of India’s colonial encounter with Europe.
Alongside, they stoke fears that a billion-plus Hindus are under siege by
Muslims, refugees, leftists, Pakistan and pesky “anti-nationals.” The
well-funded propaganda arms of the BJP and Sangh Parivar spread a lurid and
manufactured sense of historical hurt, key to sustaining Hindutva nationalism.
Run by an army of paid trolls, they fan both hate and pride by peddling
fantasies of past greatness, military might, superpower dreams, surgical
strikes and fake news. The ordinary Hindu’s sense of history is now filled with
malicious lies and manufactured resentments against pre-colonial Muslim rule
and he wants to settle the score by punishing today’s Muslims.
...
During the voting season, I’d predicted that BJP’s decision to lead with
Hindutva and its cynical post-Pulwama airstrikes would be a winning strategy.
It more than offset their failures on the economy – a trick that countless
demagogues have tried. Stated differently, the BJP’s actual performance on the
economy became irrelevant against the joys and psychic highs of Hindu pride and
nationalism, which the BJP stoked, playing the people like a fiddle. The BJP
turned hate and anger into an animating, intoxicating and rallying force –
risking the unleashing of even darker forces that, in time, they may not be
able to control. Among other big contributors to the BJP victory were a
brazenly partisan media that stumps for Modi and cultivates support for
authoritarian rule; high octane propaganda on social media; and a hopelessly
divided political opposition, who undercut each other’s votes in India’s
first-past-the-post system.
That’s fairly comprehensive.
However, it does appear to severely underrate, though not outright overlook,
the salience of the Pulwama/Balakot factor35 in the last poll.
In fact, with the Election Commission very much on his side36, Modi,
further accentuated its effect, making a mincemeat of the Model Code of Conduct, via a nationally televised address to
announce the successful firing of an anti-satellite (ASAT) missile in the outer
space – the first time for India37, when the poll process was
already on.
(In fact, it looks rather miraculous that
for the bulk of post-poll analyses – across the lines, Pulwama-Balakot – so
very glaring, as if, just never happened!)
Consequent to the stirred up jingoist surge, Modi could further reinforce the
strongman (56”) image – built up assiduously over the last five years using the
official machinery to the hilt, of himself.38
Other than that, another analyst39 puts spotlight on three (presumably
decisive) factors: Money – highly asymmetric access to financial resources (largely
engineered via a controversial Act, legislated through stealth, for the
specific purpose40), (Electronic Voting) Machine and Media – acting,
by and large, as a partisan player.41
The point made regarding the EVM is, however, pretty much controversial42.
The social media, manipulated by a huge troll army, also, predictably, played
some part43.
Apart from toilets (under Swacch Bharat), Ujjwala (cooking gas for poor
households) – as mentioned in the extract reproduced above, regardless of patchy
performance, the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi44 also appears to
have played a role. So did rural housing scheme45.
But, these sundry factors – including 10% reservation46 for
“economically backward” members of the castes/groups not till then covered by
the provisions of “reservation”, in themselves, cannot but be anything more
than minor add-ons.
The main and, in fact, the only
national opposition – relentlessly campaigning against the ruling Modi/BJP, the
Congress, presented a fairly decent poll manifesto.47 But, with its limitations of resources – in
terms of finance, as compared to the ruling party, organisational structure
and, perhaps most importantly, the way it was treated by the mainstream media,
it failed to reach out.
Apart from that, its masthead slogan – Ab Hoga NYAY48 (Now Justice
Will Be Done), had, apparently, a basic design flaw. One, the NYAY scheme,
meant to give out substantive cash doles to the (economically) bottom-most 20%
households held no promise for the rest 80%. Two, it had the issue of
credibility49 – whether it could be really implemented, given the
financial constraints and structural limitations of government machinery.
Three, it might have had even evoked adverse reactions, in various degrees, from
the rest 80% - out of envy from those just falling beyond the limit and the
better off ones, in particular, conceiving it as a forced waste of their
“hard-earned” money. Fourth, the bottom-most 20% is, in any case, conceivably the
most difficult to be accessed.
Its main attack line against the BJP was: Chowkidar Chor Hai!50 (The
Guard Is A Thief!). It was, primarily, based on the visibly murky Rafale jet
deal steered by none other than Modi himself. But, the roles played by the
Supreme Court51, the CAG52 (ref.: <https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/cag-sees-17-savings-in-renegotiated-rafale-deal-1550039618464.html>),
the financial watchdog, and, most of all, the media53 turned out to
be pretty much unhelpful. Consequently, it also failed to find a resonance.
The failure of the opposition parties to form a united national alliance - a la 1977, to confront the BJP – apparently, quite a non-feasible proposition - as it appears, eventually mattered rather little.54
Just stunned by the official outcome,
some of the opponents – both party and non-party, of the regime have claimed
that the BJP victory has been engineered by way EVM tampering by the ruling
party.55
This, however, has been rather compellingly negated56 by one running
a fact-checking website57 and enjoying considerable reputation for
objectivity despite known leftist political inclinations58.
The same issue(s) had been dealt with in even greater details59 by
an expert, associated with the opposition CPI(M)60, drawing similar
conclusions:
It is not our argument that Indian
EVMs are hack proof. No machine built by anybody, however competent they are,
can be made free from hacking by skilled hackers. We have argued that it will
require physical access to the machines – whether in the factory or outside –
to carry out this hacking.
As we have described in detail while discussing the administrative procedures,
the EVMs have to pass the various verification procedures that involve
representatives of political parties. These checks require that political
parties understand and have an informed participation in these processes. Apart
from physically verifying the EVMs, there are also randomisation procedures
that involve the presence and participation of political party representatives.
Therefore, hacking such a system can be done only with a massive conspiracy,
and with either the wilful participation of the opposition parties in this
conspiracy, or their complete ignorance of what is going on.
Nevertheless, the final conclusion drawn
by this author needs be taken with all seriousness and implemented.
Finally, elections must not only
be fair but also seen to be fair. Therefore, our argument is that the ECI must
not use the VVPAT as just an ornament forced on it by the Supreme Court, and do
a token verification. It should do a real verification by tallying the paper
slips of the VVPATs with the electronic count in the EVM. Only then will the
ECI be able to put to bed the suspicions people have of their votes being
hijacked by a ghost in the machine.
Moreover, the process of filing complaints on observing discrepancy between the
button pressed and the paper trail displayed needs be made more
complainant-friendly than it is now.
There should also be mandatory counting of all paper trails where the winning
margin is 1%, or below, of the total votes polled.
Lastly, a look at how the voters have
voted.
The votes cast, as is well-known, are anonymous.
Even then, surveys by non-government institutions are carried out to explore
the profiles of the support base for various contesting parties.
At least three noteworthy analyses61 are available in the public
domain. These are not congruent.
Yet, the essential point that emerges is
that the BJP has, this time, further consolidated Hindu support, across caste
divides. But, it, nevertheless, still enjoys more support from the rich and
upper castes, even though there has been a sharper rise in case of lower
castes, including Dalits, and Adivasis. In stark contrast, little support from
the non-Hindus - 10% or thereabout.
All in all, Hindutva in combination
with Modi’s carefully constructed image as a strongman riding on the upsurge of
jingoism triggered by the narrative built around Pulwama-Blalkot trumped his
rather dismal failure on all other fronts and very much neutralised the
opposition campaigns.
The roles played by the (supposedly neutral) Election Commission and the
mainstream media were, apparently, of huge significance.
Also the grossly disproportionate access to financial resources.
Of course, Tamil Nadu and Kerala are the two most glaring exceptions.
There are a few others as well.
But, the BJP virtually swept the heartland, except in Punjab.
What Now?
As far as the opposition camp is concerned, the first response to the defeat is
dismay and disarray.
The main opposition party Congress, with its President, Rahul Gandhi,
announcing his decision to quit his post regardless of the urgings to the
contrary by its highest decision-making body, Congress Working Committee (CWC),
is still in turmoil.62
Others also appear to be rather nonplussed.
The case of the West Bengal Chief Minister is an illustrative example.63
The Muslims, the bete noire of the BJP (and its ideological anchor
organisation, the RSS), are, apparently, dispirited.
Some eminent Muslims have, reportedly, written64 to the Prime
Minister welcoming his address on May 26 to NDA MPs and offered “utmost
cooperation” to him in reaching out to the community.
Another, known name from the community, has, on the contrary, in a reasoned and
spirited appeal65, urged the community to make common cause with “(l)iberals,
social democrats, socialists, communists, large sections of the underprivileged,
the poor, and sections of scholars” in the fight for dignified survival.
Obviously, all these are indicative of the ongoing turbulence within.
The BJP – the Modi-Shah duo, in
particular, is, obviously, only too elated.
Modi is taking this opportunity also to refashion the organisational power
structure.66 What, however, is far more germane in anticipating
the developments in the coming days is that the BJP/RSS has a project - to
supplant the "secular" and "democratic" Indian state with a
"Hindu Rashtra" (Hindu nation state) - the contours of which are,
understandably, not etched in stone, but, even then, would mean complete
negation of substantive democracy and pluralism. Of still greater salience, the
journey towards it has got to be propelled by constant stirring up of hatred
and violence against the constructed inimical "others", in order to
mobilise the Hindus as "Hindus", drowning out all other competing
identities.67
Taking off from that basic proposition, the new regime is likely to have two
major focal points on the "political" front68:
I. Dismantling of all opposition - both party and non-party.
Towards that, dislodging, maybe even dismissal, of, at least a few,
opposition-run state governments.
ED, IT, CBI raids on opposition politicians; also, in some cases, buying out.
Tightening the screw, in a myriad ways – including enhanced digital
surveillance, also as regards the civil society organisations and dissenting
individuals.
II. Sharply spiking communal polarisation by way of (phased?) nationwide roll-out
of the NRC69, also scrapping of Art. 370 (and Art. 35A)70
and putting to good use the Mandir-Masjid issue(s)71, as per the
demands of the situation.
Other expected developments are:
(i) Further intensification of non-state physical violence.72
(ii) Mega sale of PSUs.73
(iii) “Economic reforms”.74
(iv) Stepped up trashing of environmental norms and safeguards.75
(v) Tightening the grip over the education infrastructure and institutions.76
(vi) Further defanging of watchdog institutions.77
(vii) More repressive laws, if felt necessary.
While the actual (detailed) work plan will evolve and be calibrated, based on
the perceived ground situations, and be punctuated with some measures to
project a “people-friendly” image78 – to confuse and divide the
potential opposition, there is little scope that the general direction would be
anything significantly different from the one sketched out above.
It would no longer be business as usual,
not even by the standards of the last five years.
Conclusion
Modi 2.0 very much presents us with the looming threat of the dismantling of
the "India" - embodying the values of
"democracy", "pluralism" and "egalitarianism",
that had been wrought out in the crucible of the epic freedom struggle and, in
the process, finally emerged on the 15th August 1947 - in pursuance of a
project to supplant it with a "Hindu Rashtra" (Hindu nation state) -
by mobilising the Hindus of India as "Hindus", drowning out all other
identities linked to language, culture, gender, caste, class etc., constantly
stoking hatred and violence against the constructed inimical
"others".
Regardless of all the (innumerable) flaws and shortcomings that
"India" – real and even notional, encapsulates, the success of the
above project would prove to be an unmitigated disaster for the vast majority
of the people inhabiting this land.
What could offer at least some chance to
avert such a predicament is a broad front/fronts: consisting of political
parties, as many as possible - including their associated mass organisations,
and non-party civil society organisations - based on the common agenda of
saving democracy/democratic rights and unity of the country. Backed, actively,
by right-minded, otherwise diffused, individuals. On top of the, ongoing and to
be taken up, myriad specific issue-based struggles, by various constituents in
their own ways – unitedly or independently.
Determined and consistent resistance has got to be offered on all available
terrains – including parliamentary, legal, media (both traditional and new) and
the streets, and in spaces – political and civil.
It is, admittedly, a stupendous task given that (i) the regime has the levers
of the state power under its control – providing it with a disproportionate
advantage to set and control the narrative (Pulwama-Balakot being a graphic
illustration), and (ii) coming on top of its not too inconsiderable success in
vitiating the “Hindu” psyche, via persistent and diligent work, by the RSS and
its myriad affiliates, over decades and decades.
Moreover, much of the “opposition” may start melting away even before the real fight
starts.
However, one has no option but to hope against hope and fight back.
15 06 2019
Notes and References:
2. Ref.: <http://time.com/5586415/india-election-narendra-modi-2019/>.
3. Ref.: <http://time.com/5586417/hope-for-economic-reform-in-india/>.
4. Ref.: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VdwVVUT7LHM>.
7. Ref.: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election> and <http://results.eci.gov.in/pc/en/partywise/index.htm>.
9. Ref.: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election>.
10. Ref.: <http://results.eci.gov.in/pc/en/partywise/partywiseresult-S26.htm?st=S26>.
12. Ref.: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Punjab_Legislative_Assembly_election> and <http://results.eci.gov.in/pc/en/partywise/partywiseresult-S19.htm?st=S19>.
13. Ref.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Indian_general_election
14. Ref.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2014_Indian_general_election.
15. Just two representative examples: <https://www.business-standard.com/podcast/current-affairs/exit-polls-go-beyond-modi-wave-predict-tsunamo-a-4-minute-wrap-up-119052000213_1.html> and <https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/why-media-missed-the-tsunamo/articleshow/69474429.cms>.
16. Ref., e.g.: <https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/05/16/you-know-indias-democracy-is-broken-when-millions-wait-election-results-fear/?utm_term=.1cb0dd64238f>.
17. Ref.: <http://www.democracy-asia.org/qa/india/KC%20Suri.pdf>
18. Ref.: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Indian_general_election>.
19. Ref.: <https://www.jstor.org/stable/2642550?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents>.
20. Ref.: <https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha-2019/analysis-highest-ever-national-vote-share-for-the-bjp/article27218550.ece>, to be read together with: <https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/fJx8pbHZO6KdvqErOulLZN/The-BJP-system.html> and <https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/ten-charts-that-explain-the-2019-lok-sabha-verdict-1558636775444.html>.
21. Ref.: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1967_Indian_general_election>.
22. Ref.: ''Lok Sabha elections: At 67.1%, 2019 turnout’s a record, Election Commission says': Likely Implications' at <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/a2fek4E9XUQ>.
23. Ref.: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2009_Indian_general_election_by_party.
24. Ref.: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dqsDChcPxRU>.
25. Ref.: <https://www.indiatoday.in/world/americas/story/narendra-modi-sabka-saath-sabka-vikas-john-kerry-202063-2014-07-29>.
27. Ref.: <https://qz.com/171409/gujarat-by-the-numbers/>. Also look up: <http://theconversation.com/should-india-really-follow-modis-gujarat-model-26917> and <https://www.businesstoday.in/magazine/case-study/case-study-strategy-tactics-behind-creation-of-brand-narendra-modi/story/206321.html>.
29. Ref., e.g.: <http://www.documentcloud.org/documents/4311065-India-Demonetisation-One-Year-After-A-Synoptic.html>, <https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/chaotic-gst-ahead/1449853/>, https://www.news18.com/news/business/gdp-growth-drops-to-5-8-in-january-march-the-worst-in-17-quarters-and-behind-china-for-first-time-in-2-years-2167055.html, <https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/india-s-unemployment-rate-hit-45-year-high-in-2017-18-report/story-1MYf1tFZ0thkz1UGfKp1BP.html> and <https://www.livemint.com/news/india/unemployment-rate-rises-to-45-year-high-of-6-1-in-fy18-official-data-1559306879836.html>.
30. Ref.: 'Further Exposure on Balakot Bluff: 'IAF findings that India shot down own helicopter put on hold until after elections (Updated with IAF rebuttal and my response)'' at https://www.mail-archive.com/green...@googlegroups.com/msg23599.html.
32. Ref.: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SemvcQvQh5g.
33. Ref., e.g.: <https://www.youthkiawaaz.com/2014/09/politics-love-jihad-damaging-secular-fabric-country/> and <https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/cow-vigilantes-in-india-killed-at-least-44-people-in-last-3-yrs-report-119022000520_1.html>.
34. Ref.: ‘A collective madness’ by Namit Arora at <https://himalmag.com/a-collective-madness-india-elecions-modi-namit-arora-2019/>.
Yet another noteworthy one: 'India has gone from false hopes in 2014 to false
pride in 2019' by Pranab Bardhan at <https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/preening-nationalism-5781485/?fbclid=IwAR35tRK2n1x8RXF9zO-u0GdHayW5Ko8JxkJBayE4u67p5N_6rdxWopxq6kg>.
35. Ref.: https://theprint.in/opinion/pulwama-balakot-helps-modi-in-polls-issues-of-farmers-jobs-rafale-dont-exist-anymore/199143/ and https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/from-farm-to-fauj-seeds-of-nationalism-1553051665236.html.
37. Ref: <https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/narendra-modi-mission-shakti-tv-announcement-media-elections-2019-5649352/?fbclid=IwAR2uJ6nyRmwTAEAiOuJNn8pkxeiCJ2AsK69OcEGWFcYTWbOYSAtLZW_bodg> and <http://www.cndpindia.org/cndp-statement-on-the-asat-test/>.
38. Ref.: <https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/anil-vij-haryana-bjp-leader-praises-pm-narendra-modi-about-56-inch-chest-over-balakot-strike-1999610> and <https://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-with-balakot-airstrikes-pm-modi-has-shown-he-is-a-man-with-56-inch-chest-amit-shah-2744055>.
39. Ref.: 'The 2019 Elections Came Down to Money, EVM Machines and the Media: The fourth 'M' – the model code of conduct – was reduced to waste paper.' by M.G. Devasahayam at <https://thewire.in/politics/elections-2019-money-evm-media>.
40. Ref., e.g.: https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/lok-sabha-elections-electoral-bonds-of-secrecy-political-parties-5655406/?fbclid=IwAR0R3ztFnB33pNARiFyfaAMJhnuEaBDKqm2qxJuf_MUNB6VaIEXDk4T-vJc, https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/ruling-bjp-bags-95-of-funds-why-there-s-an-uproar-over-electoral-bonds-119040500309_1.html?fbclid=IwAR15tSl29vKmwfDu4dFr4BTWtldkH7dsOfPBbOWsY5Lbsl6dCzasHFugxKc and https://www.boomlive.in/cms-report-bjp-spent-rs-27000-cr-on-the-most-expensive-indian-election-till-date/.
41. See also: https://kafila.online/2019/06/07/the-massive-mandate-of-2019-and-the-role-of-the-election-commission/?fbclid=IwAR05K5bbh-a95eDmc9Cci8UbGYwUJxByXRvO7dTxP30p83U3i2zwiZ8nTfw and, for the role of the media: <https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/democracy-can-die-in-daylight-too/article27902292.ece?fbclid=IwAR2RL4AGzZa1THDbvuLZ51NR8Cate3rJ6SvLoj62aYar9iIw77cH5MqDkYI> and <https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/how-indias-media-landscape-changed-over-five-years>.
42. https://www.facebook.com/freethinker/posts/10157182374108609, <https://scroll.in/article/920203/large-scale-evm-rigging-is-almost-impossible-but-election-commission-must-act-to-reassure-sceptics> and https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/revisiting-evm-hacking-story.
43. Ref: https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/southasia/2019/01/11/long-read-india-online-how-social-media-will-impact-the-2019-indian-general-election/, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/role-of-social-media-as-influencer-of-voting-choices-overhyped-csds-study/article27819723.ece?fbclid=IwAR3fH67-8fj-z5rwuc4wg7KSgYeS7aoDzlsj2vVICIAnGDuy8NGURlgn1KY and <https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/telling-numbers-voters-rarely-share-political-views-content-online-5777817/?fbclid=IwAR07xjbDhm54t3o3fNWcPgNNtkyrKjRl044vcHCujVyVZgN31tkzXCf6xDg>.
45. Ref.: <https://www.insightsonindia.com/2019/01/19/pradhan-mantri-awas-yojana-gramin-pmay-g/>.
46. Ref.: <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/aXMX-uecoIo> and <https://www.livemint.com/news/india/why-the-10-quota-may-not-make-sense-1560423749061.html>.
47. Ref.: <https://manifesto.inc.in/en/> and <https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=forums&srcid=MDkzMzQxNDY4MDA2ODI0NzY2MDABMTQ3OTU1OTc0ODIwNzcyMzI3MjIBek9tUmVRTW5BZ0FKATAuMQEBdjI&authuser=0>.
49. Ref.: <https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/general-elections-2019/rahul-gandhi-may-bet-big-on-nyay-but-how-viable-is-it-63724> and <https://www.livemint.com/elections/lok-sabha-elections/ten-principles-to-do-justice-to-nyay-1556634265094.html>.
50. Ref.: <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chowkidar_Chor_Hai>.
52. Ref.: <https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/cag-sees-17-savings-in-renegotiated-rafale-deal-1550039618464.html>.
53. The mainstream media, by and large, underplayed the issue. It appears even more so if one keeps Bofors in mind. The Hindu was almost the sole exception, that too at a rather late stage: https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/investigative-reports-by-n-ram-on-the-rafale-deal/article26447043.ece.
55. Ref.: https://www.msn.com/en-in/video/news/mayawati-accuses-of-evm-tampering/vi-AABOfw6, https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/mamata-banerjee-claims-bjp-pre-programmed-evms-during-lok-sabha-polls-2019/1607285/?fbclid=IwAR1K33nhGRFX8I0hGZJSUgOg4RnoC0KhIf1HJqlKpv7srXkOG_LuvpFCUp8, https://kafila.online/2019/06/07/the-massive-mandate-of-2019-and-the-role-of-the-election-commission/?fbclid=IwAR05K5bbh-a95eDmc9Cci8UbGYwUJxByXRvO7dTxP30p83U3i2zwiZ8nTfw and <https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScFNbd39hVVViZEjC868YMUW6Th_Zu8CbfOjp9_8oAZ6_0vrg/viewform?fbclid=IwAR0CTpLC6acQdd5LXuAwcTH2V69HW7m0otlrub1zE_pTGfVJXVi4iBzaqDE>.
56. Ref.: https://www.facebook.com/freethinker/posts/10157182374108609.
57. Ref.: <https://www.altnews.in/>.
59. Ref.: https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/there-no-ghost-indian-electronic-voting-machine.
Also, the further update: <https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/revisiting-evm-hacking-story>.
As it appears, till now, only one defeated (Congress) candidate, contesting
from North Mumbai, has filed formal complaint with the ECI as regards EVM
discrepancy in one polling booth (ref.: <https://twitter.com/OfficialUrmila/status/1131442691219304448?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1131442691219304448&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thehindubusinessline.com%2Fnews%2Felections%2Furmila-matondkar-files-complaint-against-evm-discrepancies-at-magathane-polling-station%2Farticle27217378.ece>).
She, however, is declared defeated by a margin of over 4.65 lakh votes (ref.:
<https://www.news18.com/news/politics/mumbai-north-election-results-2019-live-updates-north-mumbai-north-bombay-winner-loser-leading-trailing-2153955.html>).
60. Ref.: <https://www.facebook.com/cpimcc/photos/a.246081492230205/420866571418362/?type=1&theater>.
61. Ref.: <https://www.thehindu.com/elections/lok-sabha-2019/the-verdict-is-a-manifestation-of-the-deepening-religious-divide-in-india/article27297239.ece>, <https://scroll.in/article/925925/are-indias-elite-anti-bjp-actually-saffron-party-got-greatest-support-from-upper-castes-rich?fbclid=IwAR3Uu2LBKFaok7fjZzuOi7YuYI7bLTKUXV8edxG089uwiTTbFDbbG_bBOFo> and <https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/where-did-the-bjp-get-its-votes-from-in-2019-1559547933995.html>.
62. Ref.: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/congress-mulls-naming-interim-president/articleshow/69731928.cms, <http://www.newindianexpress.com/nation/2019/jun/12/congress-core-panel-axed-rahul-gandhi-to-remain-president-1989282.html?fbclid=IwAR2p6io0KUYeojwr72iirzbPSFKU_EOQ1xPnxVBdQQKp3-ZIg6Q01BT9c1M> and <https://www.nationalheraldindia.com/opinion/former-ias-officer-argues-rahul-gandhi-and-congress-must-stay-the-course?fbclid=IwAR0yd2ISuu9z5BRb_fULQHqb9iB4LWIuQCTi5Dv3xxunxad76NdM-XuS3ig>.
63. Ref.:
<https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation/those-living-in-bengal-will-have-to-learn-to-speak-in-bengali-mamata/787873.html?fbclid=IwAR2hgullFx5Pn1PV0P_R6wEhTgfW2WSxqZyGK1-3UVSvnfa850VC9GqTHy4>.
Also, of relevance, as regards the Left: <https://www.asianage.com/india/politics/150619/cpi-proposes-merger-of-all-left-parties-in-india.html?fbclid=IwAR0_3rf_klJ1902xBYlN2WVz9BaaOh6Uj_zMpwqwS5ZNgTXr9aWbTn7OLTM>.
64. Ref.: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/eminent-muslim-citizens-want-pm-modi-to-focus-on-education-skills-and-confidence-building-for-minorities/articleshow/69639047.cms, https://web.dailyhunt.in/news/india/urdu/the+siasat+daily+english-epaper-siaseten/letter+to+pm+modi+from+muslim+intellectuals+sets+off+controversy-newsid-118049572 and <https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/muslim-leaders-seek-cbms-from-modi/article27823401.ece?homepage=true>.
65. Ref.: <https://thewire.in/politics/despondency-is-not-an-options-for-muslims-in-india-today>.
66. Ref.: <https://www.livemint.com/politics/news/sushma-swaraj-among-several-ex-ministers-dropped-from-the-council-of-modi-2-0-1559231740995.html> and https://www.news18.com/news/india/rajnath-singh-now-part-of-six-key-panels-of-govt-added-to-four-more-cabinet-committees-2175349.html.
67. For a brief comparative study of “Indian nationalism” vis-à-vis “Hindu
nationalism” – including both congruence and discordance, may look up: 'Indian
Nationalism, Hindutva and the Bomb' - the sub-section 'Indian Nationalism
vis-a-vis “Hindu” Nationalism', in particular, by this analyst, at
<http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article10225>.
As regards the project, arguably, of some relevance: ‘BJP’s Real Agenda’, by
this analyst, at <http://www.europe-solidaire.org/spip.php?article30113>.
That was some two decades back.
68. Ref.: <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!searchin/greenyouth/Amit$20Shah%7Csort:date/greenyouth/_rGIx5uRSmU/nmfsEYjFCAAJ>.
69. Ref.: <https://groups.google.com/forum/#!topic/greenyouth/FE_iJH_1aI4>.
71. Ref.: https://www.abplive.in/videos/ram-mandir-will-be-constructed-mohan-bhagwat-1000784.
72. Ref.: <https://peoplesdispatch.org/2019/05/29/as-modis-second-term-begins-violence-against-minorities-left-activists-continue/> and <https://www.opendoorsusa.org/christian-persecution/stories/why-indian-leader-modis-big-win-is-an-absolute-tragedy-for-christians/>.
76. Ref.: “This mandate is significant for another reason. It has completed
the rejection and decimation of what Modi himself described as the “Khan Market
cacophony” of pseudo-secular/liberal cartels that held a disproportionate sway
and stranglehold over the intellectual and policy establishment of the country.
Under Modi-II, the remnants of that
cartel need to be discarded from the country’s academic, cultural and
intellectual landscape [emphasis added].”
(See: 'This election result is a positive mandate in favour of Narendra Modi'
by Ram Madhav at <https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/lok-sabha-elections-result-narendra-modi-bjp-government-congress-5745313/>.)