COVID-19: Lies and More Lies: 'Data show India’s coronavirus lockdown may not be working'
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Sukla Sen
Apr 16, 2020, 5:13:10 AM4/16/20
to foil-l
[Also watch: <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIhNKZOHJ74&fbclid=IwAR0zaJUKR1Ppj3PmoJ6I6JTAa61J6DdgoCQq1sdjaRlmHWQekzdUDgdCq4w>.
This ground report by the BBC talks of both undertesting and underreporting - of virus caused deaths as well.
Foresees frightening days ahead.
<<An external affairs ministry official, for instance, claimed on April 9 that in the absence of a lockdown, there would have been 820,000 cases by April 15, according to an internal assessment. When asked about it, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) initially said no such study existed and later clarified that the claim was made based on a “statistical extrapolation” by the ministry of health as depicted in chart 1 (below).
...
The interpretation is that if the curve (above) is flat there is no growth in infections and if the curve looks like a straight line, then infections are growing at a constant proportional rate. In other words, the classic exponential curve used in epidemiology.
It shows that after a basically flat portion with low growth in new cases, India entered the exponential phase, beginning March 4 or so, as captured by the straight line in the log of confirmed cases. Note that this exponential growth kicked in several weeks in advance of the lockdown and continued up to merely two days before the initial lockdown period was to end.
...
There is no question that testing in India remains low by global standards. India has so far conducted over 200,000 tests as compared to a 100,000 per day in the US. The tourist hotspot of Goa, which hosts visitors from all over the world and, therefore, is a likely virus hotspot, has so far carried about only a little over 400 tests for a population of 1.5 million. Yet it remains under total lockdown, reporting only seven cases and zero deaths till now.
If, on one hand, we assume that India is testing enough and its numbers are accurate, we must ask if it makes any sense at all for a state like Goa to be under lockdown. By extension, is there any compelling rationale for a national lockdown which extends to many states that have had very low incidence of the virus? Clearly, one-size-fits-all isn’t the most sensible approach.>>
(Excerpted from below.
Please visit the site, for the graphs.)
The official site (<https://www.mohfw.gov.in/>), let alone any graph or even past data - to plot the trend, doesn't even provide the cumulative figure for the infected till date.
That has to be computed - adding up all other figures provided.
As per the site, the total number of confirmed infected, as on 16 04 20, is 12,380 and consequent deaths is 414.
Accordingly, the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) works out to be: 3.34%.
In case of China it's 4.08% and Germany: 1.75%.
With far higher case loads. In case of China, more than 6 times and in case of Germany, more than 8 times.
As the case load peaks and, if at all, pierces through a threshold range, the CFR would shoot up - with the healthcare infrastructure in place under severe strain.
Hope that doesn't happen.]
https://qz.com/india/1837337/data-show-indias-coronavirus-lockdown-may-not-be-working/?fbclid=IwAR38DxBHdteF9iVA_dxzTKlHHZ2eBOskLO8ylsogwDFmfSTUi1ALwjint14
POINTLESS PAIN
Data show India’s coronavirus lockdown may not be working
April 14, 2020
By Rupa Subramanya
India is unique among the world’s major nations in having implemented a total lockdown for such a long duration in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
The move crippled about 75% of the economy, according to Japanese investment bank Nomura, which has also predicted an almost 4.5% drop in GDP due to this in financial year 2021. In the April-June quarter alone, the Indian economy would contract by 6.1%, the company has said.
Besides causing massive supply-chain disruptions, the lockdown has internally displaced millions of people.
Did it help?
Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government, which today (April 14) extended the lockdown till May 3, has argued that all this was necessary to “flatten the curve” of infections. However, the evidence it offers to back this claim is entirely unconvincing.
An external affairs ministry official, for instance, claimed on April 9 that in the absence of a lockdown, there would have been 820,000 cases by April 15, according to an internal assessment. When asked about it, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) initially said no such study existed and later clarified that the claim was made based on a “statistical extrapolation” by the ministry of health as depicted in chart 1.
The problem with this claim is that we are not told what, if any, model was used to arrive at these numbers. No such model has been made public or even talked about by government officials. As it happens, the only model that ICMR has shared publicly is not about the lockdown, but an analysis of the border screening measures India introduced relatively earlier than other countries.
So what is the right way to know if the lockdown helped?
In the absence of an official reference model in India, all we have to go on is aggregate data on total confirmed cases nationwide, which is updated every day. The chart below plots the natural logarithm of total cases on the vertical axis with the time index on the horizontal.
The interpretation is that if the curve is flat there is no growth in infections and if the curve looks like a straight line, then infections are growing at a constant proportional rate. In other words, the classic exponential curve used in epidemiology.
It shows that after a basically flat portion with low growth in new cases, India entered the exponential phase, beginning March 4 or so, as captured by the straight line in the log of confirmed cases. Note that this exponential growth kicked in several weeks in advance of the lockdown and continued up to merely two days before the initial lockdown period was to end.
An optimist might perhaps see a minuscule flattening of the curve from around March 30, but this is only a week into the lockdown. Given that the virus has a two-week incubation period, it obviously cannot be attributed to the lockdown. What is more, several states had initiated their own lockdowns in advance of the national one. Karnataka, for instance, announced one on March 13, Maharashtra on March 20.
If the lockdown had any effect, you would expect the slope of this line to flatten or bend toward the horizontal axis.
Given the significant economic and human cost suffered due to it, the lockdown must, thus, be accounted for as a failure.
Lost opportunity
The bigger problem is that a focus on the lockdown takes away from the crucial question of ramping up testing.
There is no question that testing in India remains low by global standards. India has so far conducted over 200,000 tests as compared to a 100,000 per day in the US. The tourist hotspot of Goa, which hosts visitors from all over the world and, therefore, is a likely virus hotspot, has so far carried about only a little over 400 tests for a population of 1.5 million. Yet it remains under total lockdown, reporting only seven cases and zero deaths till now.
If, on one hand, we assume that India is testing enough and its numbers are accurate, we must ask if it makes any sense at all for a state like Goa to be under lockdown. By extension, is there any compelling rationale for a national lockdown which extends to many states that have had very low incidence of the virus? Clearly, one-size-fits-all isn’t the most sensible approach.
-- This ground report by the BBC talks of both undertesting and underreporting - of virus caused deaths as well.
Foresees frightening days ahead.
<<An external affairs ministry official, for instance, claimed on April 9 that in the absence of a lockdown, there would have been 820,000 cases by April 15, according to an internal assessment. When asked about it, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) initially said no such study existed and later clarified that the claim was made based on a “statistical extrapolation” by the ministry of health as depicted in chart 1 (below).
...
The interpretation is that if the curve (above) is flat there is no growth in infections and if the curve looks like a straight line, then infections are growing at a constant proportional rate. In other words, the classic exponential curve used in epidemiology.
It shows that after a basically flat portion with low growth in new cases, India entered the exponential phase, beginning March 4 or so, as captured by the straight line in the log of confirmed cases. Note that this exponential growth kicked in several weeks in advance of the lockdown and continued up to merely two days before the initial lockdown period was to end.
...
There is no question that testing in India remains low by global standards. India has so far conducted over 200,000 tests as compared to a 100,000 per day in the US. The tourist hotspot of Goa, which hosts visitors from all over the world and, therefore, is a likely virus hotspot, has so far carried about only a little over 400 tests for a population of 1.5 million. Yet it remains under total lockdown, reporting only seven cases and zero deaths till now.
If, on one hand, we assume that India is testing enough and its numbers are accurate, we must ask if it makes any sense at all for a state like Goa to be under lockdown. By extension, is there any compelling rationale for a national lockdown which extends to many states that have had very low incidence of the virus? Clearly, one-size-fits-all isn’t the most sensible approach.>>
(Excerpted from below.
Please visit the site, for the graphs.)
The official site (<https://www.mohfw.gov.in/>), let alone any graph or even past data - to plot the trend, doesn't even provide the cumulative figure for the infected till date.
That has to be computed - adding up all other figures provided.
As per the site, the total number of confirmed infected, as on 16 04 20, is 12,380 and consequent deaths is 414.
Accordingly, the CFR (Case Fatality Rate) works out to be: 3.34%.
In case of China it's 4.08% and Germany: 1.75%.
With far higher case loads. In case of China, more than 6 times and in case of Germany, more than 8 times.
As the case load peaks and, if at all, pierces through a threshold range, the CFR would shoot up - with the healthcare infrastructure in place under severe strain.
Hope that doesn't happen.]
https://qz.com/india/1837337/data-show-indias-coronavirus-lockdown-may-not-be-working/?fbclid=IwAR38DxBHdteF9iVA_dxzTKlHHZ2eBOskLO8ylsogwDFmfSTUi1ALwjint14
POINTLESS PAIN
Data show India’s coronavirus lockdown may not be working
April 14, 2020
By Rupa Subramanya
India is unique among the world’s major nations in having implemented a total lockdown for such a long duration in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.
The move crippled about 75% of the economy, according to Japanese investment bank Nomura, which has also predicted an almost 4.5% drop in GDP due to this in financial year 2021. In the April-June quarter alone, the Indian economy would contract by 6.1%, the company has said.
Besides causing massive supply-chain disruptions, the lockdown has internally displaced millions of people.
Did it help?
Prime minister Narendra Modi’s government, which today (April 14) extended the lockdown till May 3, has argued that all this was necessary to “flatten the curve” of infections. However, the evidence it offers to back this claim is entirely unconvincing.
An external affairs ministry official, for instance, claimed on April 9 that in the absence of a lockdown, there would have been 820,000 cases by April 15, according to an internal assessment. When asked about it, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) initially said no such study existed and later clarified that the claim was made based on a “statistical extrapolation” by the ministry of health as depicted in chart 1.
The problem with this claim is that we are not told what, if any, model was used to arrive at these numbers. No such model has been made public or even talked about by government officials. As it happens, the only model that ICMR has shared publicly is not about the lockdown, but an analysis of the border screening measures India introduced relatively earlier than other countries.
So what is the right way to know if the lockdown helped?
In the absence of an official reference model in India, all we have to go on is aggregate data on total confirmed cases nationwide, which is updated every day. The chart below plots the natural logarithm of total cases on the vertical axis with the time index on the horizontal.
The interpretation is that if the curve is flat there is no growth in infections and if the curve looks like a straight line, then infections are growing at a constant proportional rate. In other words, the classic exponential curve used in epidemiology.
It shows that after a basically flat portion with low growth in new cases, India entered the exponential phase, beginning March 4 or so, as captured by the straight line in the log of confirmed cases. Note that this exponential growth kicked in several weeks in advance of the lockdown and continued up to merely two days before the initial lockdown period was to end.
An optimist might perhaps see a minuscule flattening of the curve from around March 30, but this is only a week into the lockdown. Given that the virus has a two-week incubation period, it obviously cannot be attributed to the lockdown. What is more, several states had initiated their own lockdowns in advance of the national one. Karnataka, for instance, announced one on March 13, Maharashtra on March 20.
If the lockdown had any effect, you would expect the slope of this line to flatten or bend toward the horizontal axis.
Given the significant economic and human cost suffered due to it, the lockdown must, thus, be accounted for as a failure.
Lost opportunity
The bigger problem is that a focus on the lockdown takes away from the crucial question of ramping up testing.
There is no question that testing in India remains low by global standards. India has so far conducted over 200,000 tests as compared to a 100,000 per day in the US. The tourist hotspot of Goa, which hosts visitors from all over the world and, therefore, is a likely virus hotspot, has so far carried about only a little over 400 tests for a population of 1.5 million. Yet it remains under total lockdown, reporting only seven cases and zero deaths till now.
If, on one hand, we assume that India is testing enough and its numbers are accurate, we must ask if it makes any sense at all for a state like Goa to be under lockdown. By extension, is there any compelling rationale for a national lockdown which extends to many states that have had very low incidence of the virus? Clearly, one-size-fits-all isn’t the most sensible approach.
Peace Is Doable
Sukla Sen
Apr 16, 2020, 8:08:50 AM4/16/20
to PU...@yahoogroups.com, foil-l
Thanks.
As far as my own view is concerned, had posted, only yesterday, as under:
《(F)or now (in absence of any proven medication and vaccine), the focus is on halting or at least slowing down the spread of the disease, so that the available healthcare infrastructure does not get overwhelmed under the "peak" load - hence the efforts to "flatten the curve" and, in the process, widen it.
Minimising physical interactions between humans, as much as possible, has, therefore, emerged as the major strategy.
"Lockdown" is a drastic step towards that.
But, even when it is called for, it cannot be a stand-alone measure nor must it be imposed thoughtlessly without planning out the complementary steps and ameliorative measures - factoring in its likely aftereffects.
It has got to be accompanied by aggressive testing, identification of the infected, contact tracing, facilities for quarantining, delivery of effective health care services and, not the least of all, making the daily necessities available to all - at doorsteps. These would also include shelters for those who don't have, together with other necessary supports.》
It has got to be accompanied by aggressive testing, identification of the infected, contact tracing, facilities for quarantining, delivery of effective health care services and, not the least of all, making the daily necessities available to all - at doorsteps. These would also include shelters for those who don't have, together with other necessary supports.》
When because of lockdown hundreds of thousands, in sheer desperation, undertake foot marches in groups to cover maybe even more than a hundred kilometres, I have my doubts whether such lockdown is actually counterproductive.
But, of much greater salience is the fact, as established by the concerned logarithmic curve, the lockdown is yet to have either any positive or negative effect on the rate of spread.
We'll have to wait for a while and another assessment anchored in such a logarithmic graph.
The official or even the only unofficial site - known to me is of little help.
Sukla
> POINTLESS PAIN> Data show India’s coronavirus lockdown may not be working
This is a bit dangerous conclusion to draw. I understand the temptation to stretch the point somewhat when the writer believes that it serves a good cause.Lockdown is the most effective strategy, even when it is implemented half-heartedly, and it is more likely to succeed in a country where general incompetence is routine and greatly tolerated.This simplified simulation demo shows which strategy may work best:cheers,Dilawar
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Dilawar
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